Evaluation of the profitability of fast-growing tropical trees.

The profitability of fast-growing trees was investigated in the northeastern and eastern provinces of Thailand. The financial, economic, and tentative environmental-economic profitability was determined separately for three fast-growing plantation tree species and for three categories of plantation managers: the private industry, the state (the Royal Forest Department) and the farmers. Fast-growing tree crops were also compared with teak (Tectona grandis), a traditional medium or long rotation species, and Para rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) which presently is the most common cultivated tree in Thailand. The optimal rotation for Eucalyptus camaldulensis pulpwood production was eight years. This was the most profitable species in pulpwood production. In sawlog production Acacia mangium and Melia azedarach showed a better financial profitability. Para rubber was more profitable and teak less profitable than the three fast-growing species. The economic profitability was higher than the financial one, and the tentative environmental-economic profitability was slightly higher than the economic profitability. The profitability of tree growing is sensitive to plantation yields and labour cost changes and especially to wood prices. Management options which aim at pulpwood production are more sensitive to input or output changes than those options which include sawlog production. There is an urgent need to improve the growth and yield data and to study the environmental impacts of tree plantations for all species and plantation types.

Climatic adaptation of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karsten) in Finland based on male flowering phenology.

Anthesis was studied at the canopy level in 10 Norway spruce stands from 9 localities in Finland from 1963 to 1974. Distributions of pollen catches were compared to the normal Gaussian distribution. The basis for the timing studies was the 50 per cent point of the anthesis-fitted normal distribution. Development up to this point was given in calendar days, in degree days (>5 °C) and in period units. The count of each parameter began on March 19 (included). Male flowering in Norway spruce stands was found to have more annual variation in quantity than in Scots pine stands studied earlier. Anthesis in spruce in northern Finland occurred at a later date than in the south. The heat sums needed for anthesis varied latitudinally less in spruce than in pine. The variation of pollen catches in spruce increased towards north-west as in the case of Scots pine. In the unprocessed data, calendar days were found to be the most accurate forecast of anthesis in Norway spruce both for a single year and for the majority of cases of stand averages over several years. Locally, the period unit could be a more accurate parameter for the stand average. However, on a calendar day basis, when annual deviations between expected and measured heat sums were converted to days, period units were narrowly superior to days. The geographical correlations respect to timing of flowering, calculated against distances measured along simulated post-glacial migration routes, were stronger than purely latitudinal correlations. Effects of the reinvasion of Norway spruce into Finland are thus still visible in spruce populations just as they were in Scots pine populations. The proportion of the average annual heat sum needed for spruce anthesis grew rapidly north of a latitude of ca. 63° and the heat sum needed for anthesis decreased only slighty towards the timberline. In light of flowering phenology, it seems probable that the northwesterly third of Finnish Norway spruce populations are incompletely adapted to the prevailing cold climate. A moderate warming of the climate would therefore be beneficial for Norway spruce. This accords roughly with the adaptive situation in Scots pine.

Understorey vegetation as an indicator of forest site potential in Southern Finland.

The relationship between site characteristics and understorey vegetation composition was analysed with quantitative methods, especially from the viewpoint of site quality estimation. Theoretical models were applied to an empirical data set collected from the upland forests of southern Finland comprising 104 sites dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), and 165 sites dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karsten). Site index H100 was used as an independent measure of site quality. A new model for the estimation of site quality at sites with a known understorey vegetation composition was introduced. It is based on the application of Bayes' theorem to the density function of site quality within the study area combined with the species-specific presence-absence response curves. The resulting posterior probability density function may be used for calculating an estimate for the site variable. Using this method, a jackknife estimate of site index H100 was calculated separately for pine- and spruce-dominated sites. The results indicated that the cross-validation root mean squared error (RMSEcv) of the estimates improved from 2.98 m down to 2.34 m relative to the "null" model (standard deviation of the sample distribution) in pine-dominated forests. In spruce-dominated forests RMSEcv decreased from 3.94 m down to 3.16 m. In order to assess these results, four other estimation methods based on understorey vegetation composition were applied to the same data set. The results showed that none of the methods was clearly superior to the others. In pine-dominated forests, RMSEcv varied between 2.34 and 2.47 m, and the corresponding range for spruce-dominated forests was from 3.13 to 3.57 m.

Factors affecting partitioning of private forest holdings in Finland.

Questions of the small size of non-industrial private forest (NIPF) holdings in Finland are considered and factors affecting their partitioning are analyzed. This work arises out of Finnish forest policy statements in which the small average size of holdings has been seen to have a negative influence on the economics of forestry. A survey of the literature indicates that the size of holdings is an important factor determining the costs of logging and silvicultural operations, while its influence on the timber supply is slight. The empirical data are based on a sample of 314 holdings collected by interviewing forest owners in the years 1980-86. In 1990-91 the same holdings were resurveyed by means of a postal inquiry and partly by interviewing forest owners. The principal objective in compiling the data is to assist in quantifying ownership factors that influence partitioning among different kinds of NIPF holdings. Thus the mechanism of partitioning were described and a maximum likelihood logistic regression model was constructed using seven independent holding and ownership variables. One out of four holdings had undergone partitioning in conjunction with a change in ownership, one fifth among family owned holdings and nearly a half among jointly owned holdings. The results of the logistic regression model indicate, for instance, that the odds on partitioning is about three times greater for jointly owned holdings than for family owned ones. Also, the probabilities of partitioning were estimated and the impact of independent dichotomous variables on the probability of partitioning ranged between 0.02 and 0.10. The low value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic indicates a good fit of the model and the rate of correct classification was estimated to be 88 per cent with a cutoff point of 0.5. The average size of holdings undergoing ownership changes decreased from 29.9 ha to 28.7 ha over the approximate interval 1983-90. In addition, the transition probability matrix showed that the trends towards smaller size categories mostly involved in the small size categories, less than 20 ha. The results of the study can be used in considering the effects of the small size of holdings for forestry and if the purpose is to influence partitioning through forest or rural policy.

Differences in the climatic adaptation of silver birch (Betula pendula) and downy birch (B. pubescens) in Finland based on male flowering phenology.

Male flowering was studied at the canopy level in 10 silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) stands from 8 localities and in 14 downy birch (B. pubescens Ehrh.) stands from 10 localities in Finland from 1963 to 1973. Distributions of cumulative pollen catches were compared to the normal Gaussian distribution. The basis for the timing of flowering was the 50 per cent point of the anthesis-fitted normal distribution. To eliminate effects of background pollen, only the central, normally distributed part of the cumulative distribution was used. Development up to the median point of the distribution was measured and tested in calendar days, in degree days (> 5 °C) and in period units. The count of each parameter began on and included March 19. Male flowering in silver birch occurred from late April to late June depending on latitude, and flowering in downy birch took place from early May to early July. The heat sums needed for male flowering varied in downy birch stands latitudinally but there was practically no latitudinal variation in heat sums needed for silver birch flowering. The amount of male flowering in stands of both birch species were found to have a large annual variation but without any clear periodicity. The between years pollen catch variation in stands of either birch species did not show any significant latitudinal correlation in contrast to Norway spruce stands. The period unit heat sum gave the most accurate forecast of the timing of flowering for 60 per cent of the silver birch stands and for 78.6 per cent of the for downy birch stands. Calendar days, however, gave the best forecast for silver birch in 25 per cent of the cases, while degree days gave the best forecast for downy birch in 21.4 per cent of the cases. Silver birch seems to have a local inclination for a more fixed flowering date compared to downy birch, which could mean a considerable photoperiodic influence on flowering time of silver birch. Silver birch and downy birch had different geographical correlations. Frequent hybridization of birch species occurs more often in northern Finland in than in more southern latitudes. The different timing in flowering caused increasing scatter in flowering times in the north, especially in the case of downy birch. The chance of simultaneous flowering of silver birch and downy birch so increased northwards due to a more variable climate and also higher altitudinal variations. Compared with conifers, the reproduction cycles of both birch species were found to be well protected from damage by frost.

Methods and applications for improving parameter prediction models for stand structures in Finland

This thesis report attempts to improve the models for predicting forest stand structure for practical use, e.g. forest management planning (FMP) purposes in Finland. Comparisons were made between Weibull and Johnson s SB distribution and alternative regression estimation methods. Data used for preliminary studies was local but the final models were based on representative data. Models were validated mainly in terms of bias and RMSE in the main stand characteristics (e.g. volume) using independent data. The bivariate SBB distribution model was used to mimic realistic variations in tree dimensions by including within-diameter-class height variation. Using the traditional method, diameter distribution with the expected height resulted in reduced height variation, whereas the alternative bivariate method utilized the error-term of the height model. The lack of models for FMP was covered to some extent by the models for peatland and juvenile stands. The validation of these models showed that the more sophisticated regression estimation methods provided slightly improved accuracy. A flexible prediction and application for stand structure consisted of seemingly unrelated regression models for eight stand characteristics, the parameters of three optional distributions and Näslund s height curve. The cross-model covariance structure was used for linear prediction application, in which the expected values of the models were calibrated with the known stand characteristics. This provided a framework to validate the optional distributions and the optional set of stand characteristics. Height distribution is recommended for the earliest state of stands because of its continuous feature. From the mean height of about 4 m, Weibull dbh-frequency distribution is recommended in young stands if the input variables consist of arithmetic stand characteristics. In advanced stands, basal area-dbh distribution models are recommended. Näslund s height curve proved useful. Some efficient transformations of stand characteristics are introduced, e.g. the shape index, which combined the basal area, the stem number and the median diameter. Shape index enabled SB model for peatland stands to detect large variation in stand densities. This model also demonstrated reasonable behaviour for stands in mineral soils.

Mathematical modelling of groundwater pollution in a small heterogeneous aquifer at Kärkölä, southern Finland

Yhteenveto: Kärkölän likaantuneen pohjavesialueen matemaattinen mallinnus

När finanskrisen slog till i Finland

Avhandlingen kartlägger användandet av metaforer i ekonomijournalistik då den globala ekonomikrisen anlände till Finland under hösten 2008. Syftet med den här kvalitativa forskningen är inte bara att presentera olika metaforer utan också påvisa att metaforer bildar större helheter. Med hjälp av en metaforanalys redogör denna studie vilka metaforer förekom i ekonominyheter och hur de reflekterar ekonomikrisen och den verklighet vi lever i. Forskningen presenterar också deltagarna i ekonomikrisdiskussionen och diskuterar deras position i samhället i förhållande till maktfrågan. Den tredelning av metaforer som Lakoff och Johnson presenterar i sin bok Metaphors we live by (1980) ligger till grund för den här undersökningen. I den här forskningen delas metaforer enligt den kognitiva metaforteorin till tre större grupper; strukturella, ontologiska och orientationella metaforer. Användning av metaforer i undersökta artiklar var rikligt och den största gruppen utgjordes av strukturella metaforer. Mest förekom krigs-, spel-, sjukdoms- och naturmetaforer. Den största gruppen var krigsmetaforer vilka tillsammans med spelmetaforer användes mest i början av rapporteringen om den ekonomiska recessionen. Färg- och religionsmetaforer förekom också om än i ett mindre antal. Ontologiska metaforer förekom i form av personifiering. Bland annat var marknad och börs de fenomen som fick personliga drag då de var i panik, reagerade föll eller sov. Av de orientationella metaforer var horisontella upp-ner -metaforer vanligare än de vertikala fram-bak -metaforerna. Denna studie visar att de metaforer som journalisterna använde i sina artiklar bildade större helheter. Med hjälp av dessa metaforer ville man förtydliga att den ekonomiska recessionen ansågs vara en överraskning, speciellt för makthavare och ekonomiexperter. Krisen slog till i Finland överraskande och med en mycket stark volym och osäkerheten om framtiden förstärktes med metaforanvändandet. Avhandlingen har också ett samhälleligt perspektiv. I den undersöks deltagarna i ekonomikrisdiskussionen samt deras position i samhället. Forskningsresultatet är relaterat till maktfrågan med stöd av maktforskarna Michel Foucault och Ilkka Ruostetsaari. I dagens samhälle och globala värld har ekonomins makt bara ökat. Analysen av det empiriska materialet visar att näringslivet dominerade debatten och därmed hör det till makteliten. Alla diskussionsdeltagare använder metaforer, dock används de kraftigaste metaforerna av journalister.

Wegener's granulomatosis in Finland in 1981-2000

Objectives: Wegener s granulomatosis (WG) is a vasculitis with a predilection for the airways and kidneys. An increasing incidence and improved prognosis of WG has been shown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence, clinical presentation, diagnostic delay, risk of dialysis-dependent renal insufficiency and mortality of WG in 1981-2000. Patients and methods: Data was retrieved from the Finnish hospital discharge register and hospital case reports. Patients diagnosed with WG in 1981-2000 were included, and their demographic and clinical data recorded. The patients were crossed with the national kidney dialysis register and the national mortality statistics. Results: A total of 492 patients (243 ♂ , 249 ♀) were diagnosed at a mean age of 54 years (SD 18). The incidence increased from 1.9 to 9.3/ million/ year. The median diagnostic delay decreased from 17 to 4 months. Patients presented most often with symptoms of the ear, nose and throat (ENT) (45%), lung (36%), musculoskeletal system (22%) and kidney (11%). Initial lung involvement, constitutional symptoms, high erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and high ELK scores [(number of simultaneously involved organ groups (ENT, Lung, Kidney)] were associated with a shorter diagnostic delay. Medical treatment of WG patients remained similar in the 1980s and 1990s. Almost 90% of patients received cyclophosphamide (CYC) and more than 90% glucocorticoid medication at some point during the course of the disease. Eighty-four patients (17%) needed dialysis. Initial renal involvement and elevated serum creatinine values were related to an increased risk of dialysis-dependent kidney disease. In two-thirds of the patients, renal impairment was reversible. Dialysis became chronic (>3 months) in 32 patients (6.5%). Nineteen patients (3.9%) received a kidney transplant. Altogether 203 patients (99 men, 104 women) died before 30 June 2005. WG was the underlying cause of death in 37%. The crude one-year and five-year survival rates were 83.3% and 74.2%, respectively. The standardized mortality ratio was 3.43 (95% CI = 2.98 to 3.94). Older age and elevated creatinine level at diagnosis predicted shorter survival. ENT symptoms at presentation and treatment with CYC were associated with better outcome. There was no additional risk associated with male gender or with either of the decades (1981-1990 and 1991-2000) Conclusions: In 1981-2000, the incidence of WG increased ca. 4.5-fold and diagnostic delay decreased to ca. one-fourth, reflecting increased recognition of the disease and improved diagnostic means. WG patients are at great risk of developing dialysis-dependent renal insufficiency and an increased risk of dying. During the study period the treatment of WG did not change markedly, nor did the prognosis improve.

Influence of forest owners as an interest group in achieving the forest policy goals in Finland.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.