MGMT Promoter Methylation Is a Strong Prognostic Biomarker for Benefit from Dose-Intensified Temozolomide Rechallenge in Progressive Glioblastoma: The DIRECTOR Trial.

PURPOSE: Rechallenge with temozolomide (TMZ) at first progression of glioblastoma after temozolomide chemoradiotherapy (TMZ/RT→TMZ) has been studied in retrospective and single-arm prospective studies, applying temozolomide continuously or using 7/14 or 21/28 days schedules. The DIRECTOR trial sought to show superiority of the 7/14 regimen. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Patients with glioblastoma at first progression after TMZ/RT→TMZ and at least two maintenance temozolomide cycles were randomized to Arm A [one week on (120 mg/m(2) per day)/one week off] or Arm B [3 weeks on (80 mg/m(2) per day)/one week off]. The primary endpoint was median time-to-treatment failure (TTF) defined as progression, premature temozolomide discontinuation for toxicity, or death from any cause. O(6)-methylguanine DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation was prospectively assessed by methylation-specific PCR. RESULTS: Because of withdrawal of support, the trial was prematurely closed to accrual after 105 patients. There was a similar outcome in both arms for median TTF [A: 1.8 months; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.8-3.2 vs. B: 2.0 months; 95% CI, 1.8-3.5] and overall survival [A: 9.8 months (95% CI, 6.7-13.0) vs. B: 10.6 months (95% CI, 8.1-11.6)]. Median TTF in patients with MGMT-methylated tumors was 3.2 months (95% CI, 1.8-7.4) versus 1.8 months (95% CI, 1.8-2) in MGMT-unmethylated glioblastoma. Progression-free survival rates at 6 months (PFS-6) were 39.7% with versus 6.9% without MGMT promoter methylation. CONCLUSIONS: Temozolomide rechallenge is a treatment option for MGMT promoter-methylated recurrent glioblastoma. Alternative strategies need to be considered for patients with progressive glioblastoma without MGMT promoter methylation.

The effect of dose on the antimalarial efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine: a systematic review and pooled analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Artemether-lumefantrine is the most widely used artemisinin-based combination therapy for malaria, although treatment failures occur in some regions. We investigated the effect of dosing strategy on efficacy in a pooled analysis from trials done in a wide range of malaria-endemic settings. METHODS: We searched PubMed for clinical trials that enrolled and treated patients with artemether-lumefantrine and were published from 1960 to December, 2012. We merged individual patient data from these trials by use of standardised methods. The primary endpoint was the PCR-adjusted risk of Plasmodium falciparum recrudescence by day 28. Secondary endpoints consisted of the PCR-adjusted risk of P falciparum recurrence by day 42, PCR-unadjusted risk of P falciparum recurrence by day 42, early parasite clearance, and gametocyte carriage. Risk factors for PCR-adjusted recrudescence were identified using Cox's regression model with frailty shared across the study sites. FINDINGS: We included 61 studies done between January, 1998, and December, 2012, and included 14 327 patients in our analyses. The PCR-adjusted therapeutic efficacy was 97·6% (95% CI 97·4-97·9) at day 28 and 96·0% (95·6-96·5) at day 42. After controlling for age and parasitaemia, patients prescribed a higher dose of artemether had a lower risk of having parasitaemia on day 1 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·92, 95% CI 0·86-0·99 for every 1 mg/kg increase in daily artemether dose; p=0·024), but not on day 2 (p=0·69) or day 3 (0·087). In Asia, children weighing 10-15 kg who received a total lumefantrine dose less than 60 mg/kg had the lowest PCR-adjusted efficacy (91·7%, 95% CI 86·5-96·9). In Africa, the risk of treatment failure was greatest in malnourished children aged 1-3 years (PCR-adjusted efficacy 94·3%, 95% CI 92·3-96·3). A higher artemether dose was associated with a lower gametocyte presence within 14 days of treatment (adjusted OR 0·92, 95% CI 0·85-0·99; p=0·037 for every 1 mg/kg increase in total artemether dose). INTERPRETATION: The recommended dose of artemether-lumefantrine provides reliable efficacy in most patients with uncomplicated malaria. However, therapeutic efficacy was lowest in young children from Asia and young underweight children from Africa; a higher dose regimen should be assessed in these groups. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Surgery for unruptured arteriovenous malformations of the brain is better than conservative management for selected cases : a prospective cohort study

Object. The aim of this study was to identify patients who are likely to benefit from surgery for unruptured brain arterriovenous malformations (ubAVMs). Methods. The authors' database was interrogated for the risk and outcome of hemorrhage after referral and the out- come from surgery. Furthermore, the outcome from surgery incorporated those cases excluded from surgery because of perceived greater risk (sensitivity analysis). Finally, a comparison was made for the authors' patients between the natural history and surgery. Data were collected for 427 consecutively enrolled patients with ubAVMs in a database that in- cluded patients who were conservatively managed. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed on patients observed for more than 1 day to determine the risk of hemorrhage. Variables that may influence the risk of first hemorrhage were assessed using Cox proportional hazard regression models and Kaplan-Meier life table analyses from referral until the first occur- rence of the following: hemorrhage, treatment, or last review. The outcome from surgery (leading to a new permanent neurological deficit with last review modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score > 1) was determined. Further sensitivity analy- sis was made to predict risk from surgery for the total ubAVM cohort by incorporating outcomes of surgical cases as well as cases excluded from surgery because of perceived risk, and assuming an adverse outcome for these excluded cases. Results. A total of 377 patients with a ubAVM were included in the analysis of the risk of hemorrhage. The 5-year risk of hemorrhage for ubAVM was 11.5%. Hemorrhage resulted in an mRS score > 1 in 14 cases (88% [95% CI 63%-98%]). Patients with Spetzler-Ponce Class A ubAVMs treated by surgery (n = 190) had a risk from surgery of 1.6% (95% CI 0.3%-4.8%) for a permanent neurological deficit leading to an mRS score > 1 and 0.5% (95% CI< 0.1%-3.2%) for a permanent neurological deficit leading to an mRS score > 2. Patients with Spetzler-Ponce Class B ubAVMs treated by surgery (n = 107) had a risk from surgery of 14.0% (95% CI 8.6%-22.0%) for a permanent neurological deficit leading to an mRS score > 1. Sensitivity analysis of Spetzler-Ponce Class B ubAVMs, including those in patients excluded from surgery, showed that the true risk for surgically eligible patients may have been as high as 15.6% (95% CI 9.9%-23.7%) for mRS score > 1, had all patients who were perceived to have a greater risk experienced an adverse outcome. Patients with Spetzler-Ponce Class C ubAVMs treated by surgery (n = 44) had a risk from surgery of 38.6% (95% CI 25.7%-53.4%) for a permanent neurological deficit leading to an mRS score >1. Sensitivity analysis of Class C ubAVMs, including those harbored by patients excluded from surgery, showed that the true risk for surgically eligible patients may have been as high as 60.9% (95% CI 49.2%-71.5%) for mRS score > 1, had all patients who were perceived to have a greater risk experienced an adverse outcome. Conclusion. Surgical outcomes for Spetzler-Ponce Class ubAVMs are better than those for conservative management.

The use of beta-blockers is associated with the occurrence of acute kidney injury in severe alcoholic hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The beneficial effect of nonselective beta-blockers (NSBB) has recently been questioned in patients with end-stage cirrhosis. We analysed the impact of NSBB on outcomes in severe alcoholic hepatitis (AH). METHODS: This study was based on a prospective database of patients with severe, biopsy-proven AH. Patients admitted from July, 2006 to July, 2014 were retrospectively studied. Patients were divided into two groups (with and without NSBB) and assessed for the occurrence of Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) and transplant-free mortality during a 168-day follow-up period. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-nine patients were included, the mean Maddrey score was 71 ± 34 and 86 patients (61.9%) developed AKI. Forty-eight patients (34.5%) received NSBB. The overall 168-day transplant-free mortality was 50.5% (95%CI, 41.3-60.0%). The overall 168-day cumulative incidence of AKI was 61.9% (95%CI, 53.2-69.4%). When compared, patients with NSBB had a lower heart rate (65 ± 13 vs 92 ± 12, P < 0.0001) and a lower mean arterial pressure (MAP, 78 ± 3 vs 87 ± 5, P < 0.0001). Patients with NSBB had comparable MELD scores, Maddrey scores, and medical histories. The 168-day transplant-free mortality was 56.8% (95%CI, 41.3-69.7%) in patients with NSBB and 46.7% (95%CI, 35.0-57.6%) without NSBB (P = 0.25). The 168-day cumulative incidence of AKI was 89.6% (95%CI, 74.9-95.9%) with NSBB compared to 50.4% (95%CI: 39.0-60.7) for no NSBB (P = 0.0001). The independent factors predicting AKI were a higher MELD score and the presence of NSBB. CONCLUSIONS: The use of NSBB in patients with severe AH is independently associated with a higher cumulative incidence of AKI.

Impact of the early use of immunomodulators or TNF antagonists on bowel damage and surgery in Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: The impact of early treatment with immunomodulators (IM) and/or TNF antagonists on bowel damage in Crohn's disease (CD) patients is unknown. AIM: To assess whether 'early treatment' with IM and/or TNF antagonists, defined as treatment within a 2-year period from the date of CD diagnosis, was associated with development of lesser number of disease complications when compared to 'late treatment', which was defined as treatment initiation after >2 years from the time of CD diagnosis. METHODS: Data from the Swiss IBD Cohort Study were analysed. The following outcomes were assessed using Cox proportional hazard modelling: bowel strictures, perianal fistulas, internal fistulas, intestinal surgery, perianal surgery and any of the aforementioned complications. RESULTS: The 'early treatment' group of 292 CD patients was compared to the 'late treatment' group of 248 CD patients. We found that 'early treatment' with IM or TNF antagonists alone was associated with reduced risk of bowel strictures [hazard ratio (HR) 0.496, P = 0.004 for IM; HR 0.276, P = 0.018 for TNF antagonists]. Furthermore, 'early treatment' with IM was associated with reduced risk of undergoing intestinal surgery (HR 0.322, P = 0.005), and perianal surgery (HR 0.361, P = 0.042), as well as developing any complication (HR 0.567, P = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with immunomodulators or TNF antagonists within the first 2 years of CD diagnosis was associated with reduced risk of developing bowel strictures, when compared to initiating these drugs >2 years after diagnosis. Furthermore, early immunomodulators treatment was associated with reduced risk of intestinal surgery, perianal surgery and any complication.

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy and extrapleural pneumonectomy of malignant pleural mesothelioma with or without hemithoracic radiotherapy (SAKK 17/04): a randomised, international, multicentre phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative hemithoracic radiotherapy has been used to treat malignant pleural mesothelioma, but it has not been assessed in a randomised trial. We assessed high-dose hemithoracic radiotherapy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and extrapleural pneumonectomy in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma. METHODS: We did this phase 2 trial in two parts at 14 hospitals in Switzerland, Belgium, and Germany. We enrolled patients with pathologically confirmed malignant pleural mesothelioma; resectable TNM stages T1-3 N0-2, M0; WHO performance status 0-1; age 18-70 years. In part 1, patients were given three cycles of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (cisplatin 75 mg/m(2) and pemetrexed 500 mg/m(2) on day 1 given every 3 weeks) and extrapleural pneumonectomy; the primary endpoint was complete macroscopic resection (R0-1). In part 2, participants with complete macroscopic resection were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive high-dose radiotherapy or not. The target volume for radiotherapy encompassed the entire hemithorax, the thoracotomy channel, and mediastinal nodal stations if affected by the disease or violated surgically. A boost was given to areas at high risk for locoregional relapse. The allocation was stratified by centre, histology (sarcomatoid vs epithelioid or mixed), mediastinal lymph node involvement (N0-1 vs N2), and T stage (T1-2 vs T3). The primary endpoint of part 1 was the proportion of patients achieving complete macroscopic resection (R0 and R1). The primary endpoint in part 2 was locoregional relapse-free survival, analysed by intention to treat. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00334594. FINDINGS: We enrolled patients between Dec 7, 2005, and Oct 17, 2012. Overall, we analysed 151 patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy, of whom 113 (75%) had extrapleural pneumonectomy. Median follow-up was 54·2 months (IQR 32-66). 52 (34%) of 151 patients achieved an objective response. The most common grade 3 or 4 toxic effects were neutropenia (21 [14%] of 151 patients), anaemia (11 [7%]), and nausea or vomiting (eight [5%]). 113 patients had extrapleural pneumonectomy, with complete macroscopic resection achieved in 96 (64%) of 151 patients. We enrolled 54 patients in part 2; 27 in each group. The main reasons for exclusion were patient refusal (n=20) and ineligibility (n=10). 25 of 27 patients completed radiotherapy. Median total radiotherapy dose was 55·9 Gy (IQR 46·8-56·0). Median locoregional relapse-free survival from surgery, was 7·6 months (95% CI 4·5-10·7) in the no radiotherapy group and 9·4 months (6·5-11·9) in the radiotherapy group. The most common grade 3 or higher toxic effects related to radiotherapy were nausea or vomiting (three [11%] of 27 patients), oesophagitis (two [7%]), and pneumonitis (two [7%]). One patient died of pneumonitis. We recorded no toxic effects data for the control group. INTERPRETATION: Our findings do not support the routine use of hemithoracic radiotherapy for malignant pleural mesothelioma after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and extrapleural pneumonectomy. FUNDING: Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation, Eli Lilly.

Trabecular bone score in kidney transplant recipients.

UNLABELLED: It is uncertain whether bone mineral density (BMD) can accurately predict fracture in kidney transplant recipients. Trabecular bone score (TBS) provides information independent of BMD. Kidney transplant recipients had abnormal bone texture as measured by lumbar spine TBS, and a lower TBS was associated with incident fractures in recipients. INTRODUCTION: Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a texture measure derived from dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) lumbar spine images, providing information independent of bone mineral density. We assessed characteristics associated with TBS and fracture outcomes in kidney transplant recipients. METHODS: We included 327 kidney transplant recipients from Manitoba, Canada, who received a post-transplant DXA (median 106 days post-transplant). We matched each kidney transplant recipient (mean age 45 years, 39 % men) to three controls from the general population (matched on age, sex, and DXA date). Lumbar spine (L1-L4) DXA images were used to derive TBS. Non-traumatic incident fracture (excluding hand, foot, and craniofacial) (n = 31) was assessed during a mean follow-up of 6.6 years. We used multivariable linear regression models to test predictors of TBS, and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation decrease in TBS to express the gradient of risk. RESULTS: Compared to the general population, kidney transplant recipients had a significantly lower lumbar spine TBS (1.365 ± 0.129 versus 1.406 ± 0.125, P < 0.001). Multivariable linear regression revealed that receipt of a kidney transplant was associated with a significantly lower mean TBS compared to controls (-0.0369, 95 % confidence interval [95 % CI] -0.0537 to -0.0202). TBS was associated with fractures independent of the Fracture Risk Assessment score including BMD (adjusted HR per standard deviation decrease in TBS 1.64, 95 % CI 1.15-2.36). CONCLUSION: Kidney transplant recipients had abnormal bone texture as assessed by TBS and a lower lumbar spine TBS was associated with fractures in recipients.

Polyphenol intake and mortality risk: a re-analysis of the PREDIMED trial

Background: Polyphenols may lower the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and other chronic diseases due to their antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties, as well as their beneficial effects on blood pressure, lipids and insulin resistance. However, no previous epidemiological studies have evaluated the relationship between the intake of total polyphenols intake and polyphenol subclasses with overall mortality. Our aim was to evaluate whether polyphenol intake is associated with all-cause mortality in subjects at high cardiovascular risk. Methods: We used data from the PREDIMED study, a 7,447-participant, parallel-group, randomized, multicenter, controlled five-year feeding trial aimed at assessing the effects of the Mediterranean Diet in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Polyphenol intake was calculated by matching food consumption data from repeated food frequency questionnaires (FFQ) with the Phenol-Explorer database on the polyphenol content of each reported food. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) between polyphenol intake and mortality were estimated using time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Over an average of 4.8 years of follow-up, we observed 327 deaths. After multivariate adjustment, we found a 37% relative reduction in all-cause mortality comparing the highest versus the lowest quintiles of total polyphenol intake (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.63; 95% CI 0.41 to 0.97; P for trend = 0.12). Among the polyphenol subclasses, stilbenes and lignans were significantly associated with reduced all-cause mortality (HR =0.48; 95% CI 0.25 to 0.91; P for trend = 0.04 and HR = 0.60; 95% CI 0.37 to 0.97; P for trend = 0.03, respectively), with no significant associations apparent in the rest (flavonoids or phenolic acids). Conclusions: Among high-risk subjects, those who reported a high polyphenol intake, especially of stilbenes and lignans, showed a reduced risk of overall mortality compared to those with lower intakes. These results may be useful to determine optimal polyphenol intake or specific food sources of polyphenols that may reduce the risk of all-cause mortality.

Effects of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents or bare metal stent on fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events: patient level meta-analysis

Objectives: To examine the safety and effectiveness of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents compared with bare metal stents. Design: Individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Cox proportional regression models stratified by trial, containing random effects, were used to assess the impact of stent type on outcomes. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval for outcomes were reported. Data sources and study selection: Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Randomised controlled trials that compared cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents with bare metal stents were selected. The principal investigators whose trials met the inclusion criteria provided data for individual patients. Primary outcomes: The primary outcome was cardiac mortality. Secondary endpoints were myocardial infarction, definite stent thrombosis, definite or probable stent thrombosis, target vessel revascularisation, and all cause death. Results: The search yielded five randomised controlled trials, comprising 4896 participants. Compared with patients receiving bare metal stents, participants receiving cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents had a significant reduction of cardiac mortality (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.91; P=0.01), myocardial infarction (0.71, 0.55 to 0.92; P=0.01), definite stent thrombosis (0.41, 0.22 to 0.76; P=0.005), definite or probable stent thrombosis (0.48, 0.31 to 0.73; P<0.001), and target vessel revascularisation (0.29, 0.20 to 0.41; P<0.001) at a median follow-up of 720 days. There was no significant difference in all cause death between groups (0.83, 0.65 to 1.06; P=0.14). Findings remained unchanged at multivariable regression after adjustment for the acuity of clinical syndrome (for instance, acute coronary syndrome v stable coronary artery disease), diabetes mellitus, female sex, use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors, and up to one year v longer duration treatment with dual antiplatelets. Conclusions: This meta-analysis offers evidence that compared with bare metal stents the use of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents improves global cardiovascular outcomes including cardiac survival, myocardial infarction, and overall stent thrombosis.

Effects of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents or bare metal stent on fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events: patient level meta-analysis

Objectives: To examine the safety and effectiveness of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents compared with bare metal stents. Design: Individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Cox proportional regression models stratified by trial, containing random effects, were used to assess the impact of stent type on outcomes. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval for outcomes were reported. Data sources and study selection: Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Randomised controlled trials that compared cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents with bare metal stents were selected. The principal investigators whose trials met the inclusion criteria provided data for individual patients. Primary outcomes: The primary outcome was cardiac mortality. Secondary endpoints were myocardial infarction, definite stent thrombosis, definite or probable stent thrombosis, target vessel revascularisation, and all cause death. Results: The search yielded five randomised controlled trials, comprising 4896 participants. Compared with patients receiving bare metal stents, participants receiving cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents had a significant reduction of cardiac mortality (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.91; P=0.01), myocardial infarction (0.71, 0.55 to 0.92; P=0.01), definite stent thrombosis (0.41, 0.22 to 0.76; P=0.005), definite or probable stent thrombosis (0.48, 0.31 to 0.73; P<0.001), and target vessel revascularisation (0.29, 0.20 to 0.41; P<0.001) at a median follow-up of 720 days. There was no significant difference in all cause death between groups (0.83, 0.65 to 1.06; P=0.14). Findings remained unchanged at multivariable regression after adjustment for the acuity of clinical syndrome (for instance, acute coronary syndrome v stable coronary artery disease), diabetes mellitus, female sex, use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors, and up to one year v longer duration treatment with dual antiplatelets. Conclusions: This meta-analysis offers evidence that compared with bare metal stents the use of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents improves global cardiovascular outcomes including cardiac survival, myocardial infarction, and overall stent thrombosis.

Noninvasive prognostic markers for cardiac death and ventricular arrhythmia in long-term follow-up of subjects with chronic Chagas' disease

The objective of the present study was to investigate clinical, echocardiographic and electrocardiographic (12-lead resting ECG, 24-h ambulatory ECG monitoring and signal-averaged ECG (SAECG)) parameters in subjects with chronic Chagas' disease in a long-term follow-up as prognostic markers for adverse outcomes. Fifty adult outpatients (34 to 74 years old, 31 females) staged according to Los Andes class I, II or III and complaining of palpitation were enrolled in a longitudinal study. SAECG was analyzed in time and frequency domains and the endpoint was a composite of cardiac death and ventricular tachycardia. During a follow-up of 84.2 ± 39.0 months, 34.0% of the patients developed adverse outcomes (9 cardiac deaths and 11 episodes of ventricular tachycardia). After optimal dichotomization, in a stepwise multivariate Cox-hazard regression model, apical aneurysm (HR = 3.7; 95% CI = 1.2-1.3; P = 0.02), left ventricular ejection fraction <62% (HR = 4.60; 95% CI = 1.39-15.24; P = 0.01) and incidence of ventricular premature contractions >614 per 24 h (hazard ratio = 6.1; 95% CI = 1.7-22.6; P = 0.006) were independent predictors of the composite endpoint. Although a high frequency content in SAECG demonstrated association with the presence of left ventricular dysfunction and myocardial fibrosis, its predictive value for the composite endpoint was not significant. Apical aneurysms, reduced left ventricular function and a high incidence of ventricular ectopic beats over a 24-h period have a strong predictive value for a composite endpoint of cardiac death and ventricular tachycardia in subjects with chronic Chagas' disease.

A retrospective study of cholinesterase inhibitors for Alzheimer's disease : the effect of cerebrovascular disease on patient outcomes and the impact of biases on the results.

Introduction: La démence peut être causée par la maladie d’Alzheimer (MA), la maladie cérébrovasculaire (MCEREV), ou une combinaison des deux. Lorsque la maladie cérébrovasculaire est associée à la démence, les chances de survie sont considérées réduites. Il reste à démontrer si le traitement avec des inhibiteurs de la cholinestérase (ChEIs), qui améliore les symptômes cognitifs et la fonction globale chez les patients atteints de la MA, agit aussi sur les formes vasculaires de démence. Objectifs: La présente étude a été conçue pour déterminer si la coexistence d’une MCEREV était associée avec les chances de survie ou la durée de la période jusqu’au placement en hebergement chez les patients atteints de la MA et traités avec des ChEIs. Des études montrant de moins bons résultats chez les patients souffrant de MCEREV que chez ceux n’en souffrant pas pourrait militer contre l’utilisation des ChEIs chez les patients atteints à la fois de la MA et la MCEREV. L'objectif d'une seconde analyse était d'évaluer pour la première fois chez les patients atteints de la MA l'impact potentiel du biais de « temps-immortel » (et de suivi) sur ces résultats (mort ou placement en hebergement). Méthodes: Une étude de cohorte rétrospective a été conduite en utilisant les bases de données de la Régie de l’Assurance Maladie du Québec (RAMQ) pour examiner la durée de la période jusqu’au placement en hebergement ou jusqu’au v décès des patients atteints de la MA, âgés de 66 ans et plus, avec ou sans MCEREV, et traités avec des ChEIs entre le 1er Juillet 2000 et le 30 Juin 2003. Puisque les ChEIs sont uniquement indiquées pour la MA au Canada, chaque prescription de ChEIs a été considérée comme un diagnostic de la MA. La MCEREV concomitante a été identifié sur la base d'un diagnostic à vie d’un accident vasculaire cérébral (AVC) ou d’une endartériectomie, ou d’un diagnostic d'un accident ischémique transitoire au cours des six mois précédant la date d’entrée. Des analyses séparées ont été conduites pour les patients utilisant les ChEIs de façon persistante et pour ceux ayant interrompu la thérapie. Sept modèles de régression à risque proportionnel de Cox qui ont varié par rapport à la définition de la date d’entrée (début du suivi) et à la durée du suivi ont été utilisés pour évaluer l'impact du biais de temps-immortel. Résultats: 4,428 patients ont répondu aux critères d’inclusion pour la MA avec MCEREV; le groupe de patients souffrant seulement de la MA comptait 13,512 individus. Pour le critère d’évaluation composite considérant la durée de la période jusqu’au placement en hebergement ou jusqu’au décès, les taux de survie à 1,000 jours étaient plus faibles parmi les patients atteints de la MA avec MCEREV que parmi ceux atteints seulement de la MA (p<0.01), mais les différences absolues étaient très faibles (84% vs. 86% pour l’utilisation continue de ChEIs ; 77% vs. 78% pour la thérapie avec ChEIs interrompue). Pour les critères d’évaluation secondaires, la période jusqu’au décès était plus courte chez les patients avec la MCEREV que sans la MCEREV, mais la période jusqu’au vi placement en hebergement n’était pas différente entre les deux groupes. Dans l'analyse primaire (non-biaisée), aucune association a été trouvée entre le type de ChEI et la mort ou le placement en maison d'hébergement. Cependant, après l'introduction du biais de temps-immortel, on a observé un fort effet différentiel. Limitations: Les résultats peuvent avoir été affectés par le biais de sélection (classification impropre), par les différences entre les groupes en termes de consommation de tabac et d’indice de masse corporelle (ces informations n’étaient pas disponibles dans les bases de données de la RAMQ) et de durée de la thérapie avec les ChEIs. Conclusions: Les associations entre la coexistence d’une MCEREV et la durée de la période jusqu’au placement en hebergement ou au décès apparaissent peu pertinentes cliniquement parmi les patients atteints de la MA traités avec des ChEIs. L’absence de différence entre les patients atteints de la MA souffrant ou non de la MCEREV suggère que la coexistence d’une MCEREV ne devrait pas être une raison de refuser aux patients atteints de la MA l’accès au traitement avec des ChEIs. Le calcul des « personne-temps » non exposés dans l'analyse élimine les estimations biaisées de l'efficacité des médicaments.

Les conditions de vie dans l'enfance en milieu urbain et la longévité : le cas de la ville de Québec en 1901

Le présent mémoire s’inscrit dans un projet, financé par le CRSH, visant l’étude des conditions de vie dans l’enfance et la survie aux grands âges L’augmentation de la longévité et de la mortalité observée dans les pays industrialisés depuis plus d’un siècle ont mené à l’émergence d’un courant de recherche visant à identifier les causes de ces progrès. Il a été soulevé que les conditions de vie dans l’enfance pourraient y jouer un rôle. L’objectif de ce mémoire est donc de mettre en lumière les déterminants qui sont en cause en étudiant la mortalité au-delà de 40 ans d’une population urbaine canadienne-française en phase d’industrialisation, soit, celle de la ville de Québec au début du 20ème siècle. Plus spécifiquement, une analyse descriptive de la population étudiée sera effectuée et suivra une analyse statistique à l’aide de modèles de risques proportionnels de Cox qui prendront en compte différentes facettes des conditions de vie. Au coeur de ce mémoire a été l’élaboration d’une base de données se basant sur le Canadian Families Project et créée à partir du recensement canadien de 1901. Cette dernière nous a permis de dresser un portrait des conditions de vie dans l’enfance, telles qu’elles étaient au tournant du 20ème siècle, de la population étudiée. Nous avons complété cette base de données en recueillant des informations sur les mariages à l’aide des fichiers de du projet BALSAC ainsi que les âges au décès des individus de l’échantillon en consultant les fiches de l’État civil. Nous avons pu mettre en lumière que les individus ayant passé leur enfance dans un ménage de type complexe affichent une mortalité moins élevée (de près de 35%) que pour les structures familiales simples. De plus, les individus qui ont grandi dans un ménage dont le chef était bilingue ou occupait un emploi qualifié ont des risques de mortalité inférieurs de près du tiers par rapport aux autres. Nous avons aussi trouvé que les résidents de la Basse-Ville courraient un risque de mortalité jusqu’à 50% plus élevé que celui de ceux provenant d’autres districts de la ville.

Modelling and Analysis of Recurrent Event Data with Multiple Causes

This thesis Entitled “modelling and analysis of recurrent event data with multiple causes.Survival data is a term used for describing data that measures the time to occurrence of an event.In survival studies, the time to occurrence of an event is generally referred to as lifetime.Recurrent event data are commonly encountered in longitudinal studies when individuals are followed to observe the repeated occurrences of certain events. In many practical situations, individuals under study are exposed to the failure due to more than one causes and the eventual failure can be attributed to exactly one of these causes.The proposed model was useful in real life situations to study the effect of covariates on recurrences of certain events due to different causes.In Chapter 3, an additive hazards model for gap time distributions of recurrent event data with multiple causes was introduced. The parameter estimation and asymptotic properties were discussed .In Chapter 4, a shared frailty model for the analysis of bivariate competing risks data was presented and the estimation procedures for shared gamma frailty model, without covariates and with covariates, using EM algorithm were discussed. In Chapter 6, two nonparametric estimators for bivariate survivor function of paired recurrent event data were developed. The asymptotic properties of the estimators were studied. The proposed estimators were applied to a real life data set. Simulation studies were carried out to find the efficiency of the proposed estimators.

Determinantes de la deserción universitaria en la Facultad de Economía de la Universidad del Rosario

Este trabajo analiza el problema de la deserción estudiantil en la Facultad de Economía de la Universidad del Rosario, a través del estudio de los factores individuales, académicos y socioeconómicos que implican el riesgo de desertar. Con este objetivo, se utiliza el análisis de modelos de duración. Específi camente, se estima un modelo de riesgo proporcional de tiempo discreto con y sin heterogeneidad observada (Prentice- Gloeckler, 1978 y Meyer, 1980). Los resultados muestran que los estudiantes de sexo masculino, la vinculación de los estudiantes al mercado laboral y los estudiantes provenientes de otras regiones, tienen el mayor riesgo de deserción. Además, la edad del estudiante incrementa el riesgo, sin embargo, su efecto decrece marginalmente al aumentar la edad. Palabras clave: deserción estudiantil, modelos de duración, riesgo proporcional. Clasifi cación JEL: C41, C13, I21.