Simulation of greenhouse gases following land-use change to bioenergy crops using the ECOSSE model : a comparison between site measurements and model predictions

This work contributes to the ELUM (Ecosystem Land Use Modelling & Soil Carbon GHG Flux Trial) project, which was commissioned and funded by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI). We acknowledge the E-OBS data set from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).

Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

Policy Transfer and the Sustainability of Public Private Partnership in Ireland::A conceptual analysis

There has been private sector involvement in the delivery of public services in the Irish State since its foundation. This involvement was formalised in 1998 when Public Private Partnership (PPP) was officially introduced. Ireland is a latecomer to PPP and, prior to the credit crisis, was seen as a ‘rapid follower’ relying primarily on the UK PPP model in the procurement of infrastructure in transport, education, housing/urban regeneration and water/wastewater.  PPP activity in Ireland stalled during the credit crisis, and some projects were cancelled, but it has taken off again recently with part of the Infrastructure and Capital Investment Plan 2016 – 2021 to be delivered through PPP showing continuing political commitment to PPP.  Ireland’s interest in PPP cannot be explained by economic rationale alone, as PPP was initiated during a period of prosperity. We consider three alternative explanations: voluntary adoption – where the UK model was closely followed; coercive adoption – where PPP policy was forced upon Ireland; and institutional isomorphism – where institutional creation and change was promoted to aid public sector organisations in gaining institutional legitimacy. We find evidence of all three patterns, with coercive adoption becoming more relevant in recent years. Ireland’s rapid uptake of PPP differs from other European countries, mostly because when PPP was introduced in 1998, the Irish State was in an economic position where it could have directly procured necessary infrastructure. This paper therefore asks why PPP was adopted and how this adoption pattern has affected the sustainability of PPP in Ireland.  This paper defines PPP; examines the background to the PPP approach adopted in Ireland; outlines the theoretical framework of the paper: transfer theory and institutional theory; discusses the methodology; reports on findings and gives conclusions.   

Confluent Learning: Using a Design Approach to Develop Cognitive Abilities and Enhance Affective Capacities Through Change Management Curriculum

Purpose The aim of the study is to explore the role of confluent learning in supporting the development of change management knowledge, skills and attitudes and to inform the creation of a conceptual model based upon a priori and a posteriori knowledge gained from literature and the research. Design/methodology/approach The research adopts qualitative approach based on reflective inquiry methodology. There are two primary data sources, interviews with learners and the researchers’ reflective journals on learners’ opinions. Findings The confluent learning approach helped to stimulate affective states (e.g. interest and appreciation) to further reinforce cognitive gains (e.g. retention of knowledge) as a number of higher order thinking skills were further developed. The instructional design premised upon confluent learning enabled learners to further appreciate the complexities of change management. Research implications/ limitations The confluent learning approach offers another explanation to how learning takes place, contingent upon the use of a problem solving framework, instructional design and active learning in developing inter- and trans-disciplinary competencies. Practical implications This study not only explains how effective learning takes place but is also instructive to learning and teaching, and human resource development (HRD) professionals in curriculum design and the potential benefits of confluent learning. Social implications The adoption of a confluent learning approach helps to re-naturalise learning that appeals to learners affect. Originality/value This research is one of the few studies that provide an in-depth exploration of the use of confluent learning and how this approach co-develops cognitive abilities and affective capacity in the creation of a conceptual model.

A generalized model for population dynamics where interactions change over time

La dinámica demográfica ha sido modelada con ecuaciones diferenciales desde que Malthus comenzó sus estudios hace más de doscientos años atrás. Los modelos convencionales siempre tratan relaciones entre especies como estáticas, denotando sólo su dependencia durante un período fijo del tiempo, aunque sea conocido que las relaciones entre especies pueden cambiar con el tiempo. Aquí proponemos un modelo para la dinámica demográfica que incorpora la evolución con el tiempo de las interacciones entre especies. Este modelo incluye una amplia gama de interacciones, de depredador-presa a las relaciones mutualistas, ya sea obligada o facultativa. El mecanismo que describimos permite la transición de una clase de relación entre especies a algún otro, según algunos parámetros externos fijados por el contexto. Estas transiciones podrían evitar la extinción de una de las especies, si esto termina por depender demasiado del ambiente o su relación con las otras especies.

Brief report: preliminary proposal of a conceptual model of a digital environment for developing mathematical reasoning in students with Autism Spectrum Disorders

There is clear evidence that in typically developing children reasoning and sense-making are essential in all mathematical learning and understanding processes. In children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD), however, these become much more significant, considering their importance to successful independent living. This paper presents a preliminary proposal of a digital environment, specifically targeted to promote the development of mathematical reasoning in students with ASD. Given the diversity of ASD, the prototyping of this environment requires the study of dynamic adaptation processes and the development of activities adjusted to each user’s profile. We present the results obtained during the first phase of this ongoing research, describing a conceptual model of the proposed digital environment. Guidelines for future research are also discussed.

Building an organizational change communication theory

The difficulty of communicating during organizational change has intensified with the prevalence of continuously changing organizations (Buchanan, Claydon & Doyle, 1999). The difficulty faced by managers is compounded by the lack of studies examining organizational communication within a context of organizational change (Eisenberg, Andrews, Murphy, & Laine-Timmerman, 1999; Lewis & Seibold, 1996). Not surprisingly then, is there a paucity of organizational change theory to guide further research and practitioners. This paper addresses the lack of organizational change communication research and contributes to theoretical development of communication during organizational change. A model of change communication during continuous change is presented from the analysis of two longitudinal empirical studies. Central constructs of the model are the monologic change communication, the dialogic change communication and the background talk of change. Further Van de Ven and Poole's (1995) Process Theories of Change are extended to consider the sequencing of the three constructs. The findings suggest that the sequencing of the dominant change communication approaches is informed by an alignment of individual communication competences and organizational change communication expectations.

Towards a Business Process Management Maturity Model

Business Process Management (BPM) has been identified as the number one business priority by a recent Gartner study (Gartner, 2005). However, BPM has a plethora of facets as its origins are in Business Process Reengineering, Process Innovation, Process Modelling, and Workflow Management to name a few. Organisations increasingly recognize the requirement for an increased process orientation and require appropriate comprehensive frameworks, which help to scope and evaluate their BPM initiative. This research project aims toward the development of a holistic and widely accepted BPM maturity model, which facilitates the assessment of BPM capabilities. This paper provides an overview about the current model with a focus on the actual model development utilizing a series of Delphi studies. The development process includes separate studies that focus on further defining and expanding the six core factors within the model, i.e. strategic alignment, governance, method, Information Technology, people and culture.

IT professionals' experience of ethics and its implications for IT education

This study investigates variation in IT professionals' experience of ethics with a view to enhancing their formation and support. This is explored through an examination of the experience of IT, IT professional ethics and IT professional ethics education. The study's principal contribution is the empirical study and description of IT professionals' experience of ethics. The empirical phase is preceded by a review of conceptions of IT and followed by an application of the findings to IT education. The study's empirical findings are based on 30 semi-structured interviews with IT professionals who represent a wide demographic, experience and IT sub-discipline range. Their experience of ethics is depicted as five citizenships: Citizenship of my world, Citizenship of the corporate world, Citizenship of a shared world, Citizenship of the client's world and Citizenship of the wider world. These signify an expanding awareness, which progressively accords rights to others and defines responsibility in terms of others. The empirical findings inform a Model of Ethical IT. This maps an IT professional space increasingly oriented towards others. Such a model provides a conceptual tool, available to prompt discussion and reflection, and which may be employed in pursuing formation aimed at experiential change. Its usefulness for the education of IT professionals with respect to ethics is explored. The research approach employed in this study is phenomenography. This method seeks to elicit and represent variation of experience. It understands experience as a relationship between a subject (IT professionals) and an object (ethics), and describes this relationship in terms of its foci and boundaries. The study's findings culminate in three observations, that change is indicated in the formation and support of IT professionals in: 1. IT professionals' experience of their discipline, moving towards a focus on information users; 2. IT professionals' experience of professional ethics, moving towards the adoption of other-centred attitudes; and 3. IT professionals' experience of professional development, moving towards an emphasis on a change in lived experience. Based on these results, employers, educators and professional bodies may want to evaluate how they approach professional formation and support, if they aim to promote a comprehensive awareness of ethics in IT professionals.

Towards model round-trip engineering : an abductive approach

Providing support for reversible transformations as a basis for round-trip engineering is a significant challenge in model transformation research. While there are a number of current approaches, they require the underlying transformation to exhibit an injective behaviour when reversing changes. This however, does not serve all practical transformations well. In this paper, we present a novel approach to round-trip engineering that does not place restrictions on the nature of the underlying transformation. Based on abductive logic programming, it allows us to compute a set of legitimate source changes that equate to a given change to the target model. Encouraging results are derived from an initial prototype that supports most concepts of the Tefkat transformation language

Quality-based benefit design in health insurance : the impact of a product benefit design change on the utilisation of oral health services by members of a private health insurance fund in regional and rural New South Wales, Australia

Objective: To examine the impact on dental utilisation following the introduction of a participating provider scheme (Regional and Rural Oral Health Program {RROHP)). In this model dentists receive higher third party payments from a private health insurance fund for delivering an agreed range of preventive and diagnostic benefits at no out-ofpocket cost to insured patients. Data source/Study setting: Hospitals Contribution Fund of Australia (HCF) dental claims for all members resident in New South Wales over the six financial years from l99811999 to 200312004. Study design: This cohort study involves before and after analyses of dental claims experience over a six year period for approximately 81,000 individuals in the intervention group (HCF members resident in regional and rural New South Wales, Australia) and 267,000 in the control group (HCF members resident in the Sydney area). Only claims for individuals who were members of HCF at 31 December 1997 were included. The analysis groups claims into the three years prior to the establishment of the RROHP and the three years subsequent to implementation. Data collection/Extraction methods: The analysis is based on all claims submitted by users of services for visits between 1 July 1988 and 30 June 2004. In these data approximately 1,000,000 services were provided to the intervention group and approximately 4,900,000 in the control group. Principal findings: Using Statistical Process Control (SPC) charts, special cause variation was identified in total utilisation rate of private dental services in the intervention group post implementation. No such variation was present in the control group. On average in the three years after implementation of the program the utilisation rate of dental services by regional and rural residents of New South Wales who where members of HCF grew by 12.6%, over eight times the growth rate of 1.5% observed in the control group (HCF members who were Sydney residents). The differences were even more pronounced in the areas of service that were the focus of the program: diagnostic and preventive services. Conclusion: The implementation of a benefit design change, a participating provider scheme, that involved the removal of CO-payments on a defined range of preventive and diagnostic dental services combined with the establishment and promotion of a network of dentists, appears to have had a marked impact on HCF members' utilisation of dental services in regional and rural New South Wales, Australia.