A költségvetési politika fenntarthatósága és a szabályalapú gazdaságpolitika (The sustainability of fiscal policy and a rule-based economic policy)

A költségvetési pénzügyek irodalmában a fenntarthatóság koncepciója csak az elmúlt két-három évtizedben került újra a vizsgálódás fókuszába. Ennek oka kettős. Az 1960-as évek végéig a fegyelmezett fiskális politikai gyakorlat nem igényelte annak állandó napirenden tartását. Csak az olajválságok idejére eső és azután állandósulni látszó költségvetési hiányok és a növekvő államadósság-állományok, illetve az ezek okán erősödő adósságkockázat irányította újra a figyelmet a költségvetési fegyelem fenntartásának fontosságára. Ezt a változást a közgazdaságtudományi elmélettörténetben beállott gyökeres változás kísérte. Az aktív keresletmenedzsment bírálataként megfogalmazódó monetarista kritika, illetve annak radikálisabb újklasszikus változata, a politikai döntéshozókról (és így a diszkrecionális költségvetési politika hatásosságáról) lesújtó véleményt fogalmazott meg, ami azután az aktív intézkedések korlátozásának irányába terelte a gazdaságpolitika alakítóit is. A következőkben e kettős – a fiskális politikai gyakorlat és a közgazdasági elméletek területén bekövetkezett –fordulat bemutatására vállalkozunk az Akadémiai Kiadónál megjelenő Költségvetési pénzügyek – Hiány, államadósság, fenntarthatóság című kötetünk bizonyos részeinek felhasználásával.

Vállalati versenyképesség – a vevői érték és a képességalapú megközelítés összekapcsolása (Competitiveness of firms – combining the customer value and the capability based approach)

A cikk központi kérdése a vállalati versenyképesség. Két meghatározó menedzsmentmegközelítés – a vevői érték és az erőforrás-, képességalapú stratégiai menedzsment – fogalmi rendszerére, illetve koncepcióira alapozva a szerzők kialakítottak és a "Versenyben a világgal 2004–2006 – gazdasági versenyképességünk vállalati nézőpontból" című kutatás adatbázisát használva teszteltek egy a vállalati versenyképesség belső struktúrájára rávilágító elméleti modellt. A modell empirikus tesztelésének eredménye szerint a kialakított koncepció a vállalati versenyképesség elemzésének hasznos eszköze, mely alkalmas arra, hogy a vizsgált vállalatok esetében igazolja, vagy éppen megcáfolja a meghatározott, ún. összehangolt kompetenciák meglétét. ________The main issue of this article is the competitiveness of firms. Based on conceptual system and concepts of two determinant management approaches – the customer value and the resource and capability based strategic management – the authors have developed and tested a theoretical model of the inside structure of the competitiveness of firms using the database of Competing with the World 2004-2006 – the competitiveness of the Hungarian economy from enterprise point of view. According to the result of the empiric test of the model the developed concept has been a profitable tool of the analysis of the enterprise competitiveness and it has been suited for confirming or confuting determinated so called aligned competencies being in the case of examined firms.

Comparative analysis of the relationship between phenological phenomena and meteorological indicators based on insect and plant monitoring

Climate change is one of the biggest environmental problems of the 21st century. The most sensitive indicators of the effects of the climatic changes are phenological processes of the biota. The effects of climate change which were observed the earliest are the remarkable changes in the phenology (i.e. the timing of the phenophases) of the plants and animals, which have been systematically monitored later. In our research we searched for the answer: which meteorological factors show the strongest statistical relationships with phenological phenomena based on some chosen plant and insect species (in case of which large phenological databases are available). Our study was based on two large databases: one of them is the Lepidoptera database of the Hungarian Plant Protection and Forestry Light Trap Network, the other one is the Geophytes Phenology Database of the Botanical Garden of Eötvös Loránd University. In the case of butterflies, statistically defined phenological dates were determined based on the daily collection data, while in the case of plants, observation data on blooming were available. The same meteorological indicators were applied for both groups in our study. On the basis of the data series, analyses of correlation were carried out and a new indicator, the so-called G index was introduced, summing up the number of correlations which were found to be significant on the different levels of significance. In our present study we compare the significant meteorological factors and analyse the differences based on the correlation data on plants and butterflies. Data on butterflies are much more varied regarding the effectiveness of the meteorological factors.

Links between migration and the presence of foreign combatants in armed conflict

This article explores the connections between migration and foreign combat, offering an improved definition of „foreign fighters,” and a general concept of foreign combatants’ behaviour as an anomalous form of migration. In contrast with the popular discourse and terrorism-related concerns about present-day Western European foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria (and their return to Europe) and Middle Eastern migrant refugees (and their arrival in Europe), the intention of this article is to offer a conceptually thorough consideration of the causal connections between movements of migration and the presence of foreign combatants in armed conflict, informed by a wide sample of cases. Such an assessment has to take place with a view to all forms of migration (including forced migration), all forms of foreign combat (not only foreign combat on the side of non-state actors as David Malet's oft-cited but overly restrictive definition would imply), and regions of the world beyond the Middle East and Islamic countries. Along these guiding lines, the article points out many comparatively rarely considered cases of foreign combat as well as the underestimated obstacles in the way of fighting abroad. Taking account of the latter allows refutation of a key implication of „new war theory” (its focus on „greed” as a motive of combatants), in light of the continued importance of cultural factors and ideological motives for participation in foreign combat.

A Study of Online Hotel Reservations on Asia Pacific-Based, European-Based, and North American-Based Travel Websites

This paper reports a study that examined hotel reservation services on travel websites. Using a systematic search, 90 travel websites were selected with an equal number of North American-based, European-based, and Asia Pacfic-based websites. These regions represent the areas of the world with the most Internet users. Based on the developed framework of information quality, the contents of the selected travel websites were evaluated. Be empirical results indicated that the travel websites achieved different levels of quality in online information, and that North American-based websites performed significantly better in some attributes.

A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach to Compare and Contrast the Websites of China-based and U.S-based Hotels

The improvement in living standards and the development of telecommunications have led to a large increase in the number of Internet users in China. It has been reported by China National Network Information Center that the number of Internet users in China has reached 33.7 million in 2001, ranting the country third in the world. This figure also shows that more and more Chinese residents have accepted the Internet and use it to obtain information and compete their travel planning. Milne and Ateljevic stated that the integration of computing and telecommunications would create a global information network based mostly on the Internet. The Internet, especially the World Wide Web, has had a great impact on the hospitality and tourism industry in recent years. The WWW plays an important role in mediating between customers and hotel companies as a place to acquire information acquisition and transact business.

The Berkovits Complex and Semi-free Extensions of Koszul Algebras

Peer reviewed

Cervical cancer precursors and hormonal contraceptive use in HIV-positive women: application of a causal model and semi-parametric estimation methods.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the application of causal inference methods to observational data in the obstetrics and gynecology field, particularly causal modeling and semi-parametric estimation. BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women are at increased risk for cervical cancer and its treatable precursors. Determining whether potential risk factors such as hormonal contraception are true causes is critical for informing public health strategies as longevity increases among HIV-positive women in developing countries. METHODS: We developed a causal model of the factors related to combined oral contraceptive (COC) use and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater (CIN2+) and modified the model to fit the observed data, drawn from women in a cervical cancer screening program at HIV clinics in Kenya. Assumptions required for substantiation of a causal relationship were assessed. We estimated the population-level association using semi-parametric methods: g-computation, inverse probability of treatment weighting, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: We identified 2 plausible causal paths from COC use to CIN2+: via HPV infection and via increased disease progression. Study data enabled estimation of the latter only with strong assumptions of no unmeasured confounding. Of 2,519 women under 50 screened per protocol, 219 (8.7%) were diagnosed with CIN2+. Marginal modeling suggested a 2.9% (95% confidence interval 0.1%, 6.9%) increase in prevalence of CIN2+ if all women under 50 were exposed to COC; the significance of this association was sensitive to method of estimation and exposure misclassification. CONCLUSION: Use of causal modeling enabled clear representation of the causal relationship of interest and the assumptions required to estimate that relationship from the observed data. Semi-parametric estimation methods provided flexibility and reduced reliance on correct model form. Although selected results suggest an increased prevalence of CIN2+ associated with COC, evidence is insufficient to conclude causality. Priority areas for future studies to better satisfy causal criteria are identified.

(Table S1) Qualitative and semi-quantitative abundance of magnetic particles in Paleocene-Eocene sediments

On the mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States, Paleocene sands and silts are replaced during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) by the kaolinite-rich Marlboro Clay. The clay preserves abundant magnetite produced by magnetotactic bacteria and novel, presumptively eukaryotic, iron-biomineralizing microorganisms. Using ferromagnetic resonance spectroscopy and electron microscopy, we map the magnetofossil distribution in the context of stratigraphy and carbon isotope data and identify three magnetic facies in the clay: one characterized by a mix of detrital particles and magnetofossils, a second with a higher magnetofossil-to-detrital ratio, and a third with only transient magnetofossils. The distribution of these facies suggests that suboxic conditions promoting magnetofossil production and preservation occurred throughout inner middle neritic sediments of the Salisbury Embayment but extended only transiently to outer neritic sediments and the flanks of the embayment. Such a distribution is consistent with the development of a system resembling a modern tropical river-dominated shelf.

Swift Heavy Ion Irradiation and Thermal Annealing Induced Modification of Structural, Topographical and Magnetic Properties in Monolayer and Bilayer Films Based on FeNiMoB and Zinc Ferrite

Magnetism and magnetic materials have been playing a lead role in the day to day life of human beings. The human kind owes its gratitude to the ‘lodestone’ meaning ‘leading stone’ which lead to the discovery of nations and the onset of modern civilizations. If it was William Gilbert, who first stated that ‘earth was a giant magnet’, then it was the turn of Faraday who correlated electricity and magnetism. Magnetic materials find innumerable applications in the form of inductors, read and write heads, motors, storage devices, magnetic resonance imaging and fusion reactors. Now the industry of magnetic materials has almost surpassed the semiconductor industry and this speaks volumes about its importance. Extensive research is being carried out by scientists and engineers to remove obsolescence and invent new devices. Though magnetism can be categorized based on the response of an applied magnetic field in to diamagnetic, paramagnetic, ferromagnetic, ferrimagnetic and antiferromagnetic; it is ferrimagnetic, ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic materials which have potential applications. The present thesis focusses on these materials, their composite structures and different ways and means to modify their properties for useful applications. In the past, metals like Fe, Ni and Co were sought after for various applications though iron was in the forefront because of its cost effectiveness and abundance. Later, alloys based on Fe and Ni were increasingly employed. They were used in magnetic heads and in inductors. Ferrites entered the arena and subsequently most of the newer applications were based on ferrites, a ferrimagnetic material, whose composition can be tuned to tailor the magnetic properties. In the late 1950s a new class of magnetic material emerged on the magnetic horizon and they were fondly known as metallic glasses. They are well known for their soft magnetic properties. They were synthesized in the form of melt spun ribbons and are amorphous in nature and they are projected to replace the crystalline counterparts.

Swift Heavy Ion Irradiation and Thermal Annealing Induced Modification of Structural, Topographical and Magnetic Properties in Monolayer and Bilayer Films Based on FeNiMoB and Zinc Ferrite

Magnetism and magnetic materials have been playing a lead role in the day to day life of human beings. The human kind owes its gratitude to the ‘lodestone’ meaning ‘leading stone’ which lead to the discovery of nations and the onset of modern civilizations. If it was William Gilbert, who first stated that ‘earth was a giant magnet’, then it was the turn of Faraday who correlated electricity and magnetism. Magnetic materials find innumerable applications in the form of inductors, read and write heads, motors, storage devices, magnetic resonance imaging and fusion reactors. Now the industry of magnetic materials has almost surpassed the semiconductor industry and this speaks volumes about its importance. Extensive research is being carried out by scientists and engineers to remove obsolescence and invent new devices. Though magnetism can be categorized based on the response of an applied magnetic field in to diamagnetic, paramagnetic, ferromagnetic, ferrimagnetic and antiferromagnetic; it is ferrimagnetic, ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic materials which have potential applications. The present thesis focusses on these materials, their composite structures and different ways and means to modify their properties for useful applications.

CV and online presence

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