The Libor Market Model: from theory to calibration

This thesis is focused on the financial model for interest rates called the LIBOR Market Model. In the appendixes, we provide the necessary mathematical theory. In the inner chapters, firstly, we define the main interest rates and financial instruments concerning with the interest rate models, then, we set the LIBOR market model, demonstrate its existence, derive the dynamics of forward LIBOR rates and justify the pricing of caps according to the Black’s formula. Then, we also present the Swap Market Model, which models the forward swap rates instead of the LIBOR ones. Even this model is justified by a theoretical demonstration and the resulting formula to price the swaptions coincides with the Black’s one. However, the two models are not compatible from a theoretical point. Therefore, we derive various analytical approximating formulae to price the swaptions in the LIBOR market model and we explain how to perform a Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, we present the calibration of the LIBOR market model to the markets of both caps and swaptions, together with various examples of application to the historical correlation matrix and the cascade calibration of the forward volatilities to the matrix of implied swaption volatilities provided by the market.

Analysis of the Iberian electricity forward market hedging efficiency

An assessment of the hedging performance in the Iberian Forward Electricity Market is performed. Aggregated data from the Portuguese and Spanish clearing houses for energy derivatives are considered. The hedging performance is measured through the ratio of the final open interest of a month derivatives contract divided by its accumulated cleared volume. The base load futures in the Iberian energy derivatives exchange show the lowest ratios due to good liquidity. The peak futures show bigger ratios as their reduced liquidity is produced by auctions fixed by Portuguese regulation. The base load swaps settled in the clearing house located in Spain show initially large values due to low registered volumes, as this clearing house is mainly used for short maturity (daily and weekly swaps). This hedging ratio can be a powerful oversight tool for energy regulators when accessing to all the derivatives transactions as envisaged by European regulation.

Proline and pyrrolidine derivatives: new drug cadidates for hepatitis C treatment

The more advantageous hepatitis C virus (HCV) inhibitors (most of them incorporating polysubstituted prolines or pyrrolidines) are detailed in this paper. The improvement of current treatments by combination of antiviral drugs is the driving force of this race to reduce the fast proliferation of this virus. The enhancement of efficiency in short periods of treatment is crucial in the economical point of view and for the hope of all infected people. New protease or polymerase inhibitors have been recently developed in order to substitute the traditional highly toxic PEG-interferon α-2b/ribavirin tandem. The contribution of our group in this field concerns the elaboration of the first and second generation GSK polymerase inhibitors through enantioselective processes based on silver(I)- and gold(I)-catalyzed 1,3-dipolar cycloadditions of azomethine ylides.

The OTC derivatives markets after financial reforms. CEPS ECMI Commentary No. 36, May 2014

Over the past five years, over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets have received heightened regulatory attention, due to their opaqueness, size and interconnectedness, with a view to improving the robustness, safety and resilience of this market segment. There has been continued progress in the follow-up to the G-20 commitments, with the EU (EMIR, MIFID II, CRD/CRR IV, MAD) and the US (Swap Execution Facility or SEF, Title VII of Dodd-Frank Act, Basel III) leading in the implementation timelines and capturing approximately 80-90% of the overall market. Based on the data compiled for the yearly ECMI Statistical Package, this commentary provides a snapshot of the current status of the global OTC derivatives markets by: i) identifying general trends over the past decade, ii) looking at the changes in the market structure (instruments and participants), iii) estimating the uncollateralised derivatives exposure and iv) examining the relationship between OTC derivatives and exchange-traded derivatives (ETD).

Consumption of luxury goods in Brazil: purchasing motives and values of Brazilian consumers and implications for marketing

Aiming at success in the currently challenging Brazilian market, luxury firms must consider a number of factors. Not only the adaptation to certain economic and political conditions but also the understanding of Brazilian luxury consumers’ characteristics as well as their value perceptions towards luxury are crucial in order to create an effective marketing strategy. This study investigated the value perceptions and purchasing motives of 428 Brazilian consumers. Brazilians purchase luxury goods in order to conspicuously put them on show to certain social reference group or to the general public. Thus, they display their wealth, income and social status. Social groups therefore play a distinct role in the purchasing decision process. Moreover, Brazilians are found to be hedonic consumers, seeking pleasurable moments and the reduction of stress when consuming luxury products. In addition to that, they use luxurious products to express their own personality. Brazilians hence place a much higher importance on self-expressive, emotional product benefits rather than on rational, functional product benefits. Marketers of luxury goods are advised to make use of this knowledge in order to adequately address consumers’ needs, wants and beliefs. The study focuses on consumers living in Rio de Janeiro and does not take into account different value perceptions on different luxury product categories. Therefore, suggestions for further research include replicating the study in different Brazilian regions and probing for differences among product categories.

Participatory approach for the identification of dairy industry needs in the design of research, development and extension actions: Australian and Brazilian case studies

In both Australia and Brazil there are rapid changes occurring in the macroenvironment of the dairy industry. These changes are sometimes not noticed in the microenvironment of the farm, due to the labour-intensive nature of family farms, and the traditionally weak links between production and marketing. Trends in the external environment need to be discussed in a cooperative framework, to plan integrated actions for the dairy community as a whole and to demand actions from research, development and extension (R, D & E). This paper reviews the evolution of R, D & E in terms of paradigms and approaches, the present strategies used to identify dairy industry needs in Australia and Brazil, and presents a participatory strategy to design R, D & E actions for both countries. The strategy incorporates an integration of the opinions of key industry actors ( defined as members of the dairy and associated communities), especially farm suppliers ( input market), farmers, R, D & E people, milk processors and credit providers. The strategy also uses case studies with farm stays, purposive sampling, snowball interviewing techniques, semi-structured interviews, content analysis, focus group meetings, and feedback analysis, to refine the priorities for R, D & E actions in the region.

Implications of restructuring and privatisation for competitiveness and perfomance:two Brazilian steel companies

The thesis examines the effects of the privatisation process on productivity, competitiveness and performance in two major Brazilian steel companies, which were privatised in between 1991 and 1993. The case study method was adopted in this research due to its strengths as a useful technique allowing in-depth examination of the privatisation process, the context in which it happened and its effects on the companies. The thesis has developed a company analysis framework consisting of three components: management, competitiveness/productivity and performance and examined the evidence on the companies within this framework.The research indicates that there is no straightforward relationship between privatisation, competitiveness and performance. There were many significant differences in the management and technological capabilities, products and performance of the two companies, and these have largely influenced the effects of privatisation on each company. Company Alpha's strengths in technological and management capabilities and high value added products explain strong productivity and financial performance during and after privatisation. Company Beta's performance was weak before the privatisation and remained weak immediately after. Before the privatisation, weaknesses in management, commodity type low value added products and shortage of funds for investment were the major problems. These were compounded by greater government interference. Despite major restructuring, the poor performance has continued after privatisation largely because the company has not been able to improve its productivity sufficiently to be cost competitive in commodity type markets. Both companies state that their strategies have changed significantly. They claim to be more responsive to market conditions and customers and are attempting to develop closer links with major customers. It is not possible to assess the consequences of these changes in the short time that has elapsed since privatisation but Alpha appears to be more effective in developing a coherent strategy because of its strengths. Both companies accelerated their programme of organisational restructuring and reducing the number of their employees during the privatisation process to improve productivity and performance. Alpha has attained standards comparable to major international steel companies. Beta has had to make much bigger organisational changes and cuts in its labour force but its productivity levels still remain low in comparison with Alpha and international competitors.

Impact of derivatives trading on emerging stock markets:some evidence from India

It is generally accepted that the introduction of financial derivatives that facilitate hedging is an important step in the development of stock markets. However, financial derivatives can potentially increase volatility in the underlying cash market, which might be detrimental to the development of the stock market itself. Using data from India, we examine one possible route through which derivatives trading can increase cash market volatility: expiration day effect. Our results indicate that expiration of equity derivatives contracts does not have any effect on the intra-day volatility of the market index, and it reduces the volatility of inter-day returns to the index.

Derivatív pénzügyi termékek árdinamikája és az új típusú kamatlábmodellek (Interest rate models and the price processes of financial derivatives)

Ennek a cikknek az a célja, hogy áttekintést adjon annak a folyamatnak néhány főbb állomásáról, amit Black, Scholes és Merton opcióárazásról írt cikkei indítottak el a 70-es évek elején, és ami egyszerre forradalmasította a fejlett nyugati pénzügyi piacokat és a pénzügyi elméletet. / === / This review article compares the development of financial theory within and outside Hungary in the last three decades starting with the Black-Scholes revolution. Problems like the term structure of interest rate volatilities which is in the focus of many research internationally has not received the proper attention among the Hungarian economists. The article gives an overview of no-arbitrage pricing, the partial differential equation approach and the related numerical techniques, like the lattice methods in pricing financial derivatives. The relevant concepts of the martingal approach are overviewed. There is a special focus on the HJM framework of the interest rate development. The idea that the volatility and the correlation can be traded is a new horizon to the Hungarian capital market.

A long-term energy efficiency prediction model for the Brazilian automotive industry

According to law number 12.715/2012, Brazilian government instituted guidelines for a program named Inovar-Auto. In this context, energy efficiency is a survival requirement for Brazilian automotive industry from September 2016. As proposed by law, energy efficiency is not going to be calculated by models only. It is going to be calculated by the whole universe of new vehicles registered. In this scenario, the composition of vehicles sold in market will be a key factor on profits of each automaker. Energy efficiency and its consequences should be taken into consideration in all of its aspects. In this scenario, emerges the following question: which is the efficiency curve of one automaker for long term, allowing them to adequate to rules, keep balancing on investment in technologies, increasing energy efficiency without affecting competitiveness of product lineup? Among several variables to be considered, one can highlight the analysis of manufacturing costs, customer value perception and market share, which characterizes this problem as a multi-criteria decision-making. To tackle the energy efficiency problem required by legislation, this paper proposes a framework of multi-criteria decision-making. The proposed framework combines Delphi group and Analytic Hierarchy Process to identify suitable alternatives for automakers to incorporate in main Brazilian vehicle segments. A forecast model based on artificial neural networks was used to estimate vehicle sales demand to validate expected results. This approach is demonstrated with a real case study using public vehicles sales data of Brazilian automakers and public energy efficiency data.

Market work and household production in Brazil

This thesis is composed of three papers in which the research questions are related to the double burden that accrues to Brazilian women. The first and second papers address this issue by looking at expenditure decisions about home production. The first paper examines whether the expenditure decisions about production goods, such as white appliances, relative to entertainment goods, such as TVs, are the outcome of a bargaining process between husbands and wives. The second paper looks at the demand for maid services and for production durable goods, examining the extent to which other household members substitute for maid services and durable goods in home production. The third paper addresses the effects of Brazilian women's double burden on their labor market participation by examining whether the occupational choice of Brazilian women is affected by their gender roles and whether entry into other occupations that are not identified as female occupations has become easier since the introduction of anti-discrimination laws in the labor market. The first paper combines two Brazilian data sets: a Brazilian household expenditure survey, Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiares (POF), and a Brazilian household survey, Pesquisa Nacional Por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD). The results of the first paper indicate that the decision about durable goods ownership is the outcome of a bargaining process between husband and wife. The test on the coefficients of the marriage market variable and the indicators of households in which only the wife and households in which only the husband makes expenditure decisions corroborate the expectations about wives' preferences for production goods. The same data sets as the first paper are used in the second paper. The finding of the second paper indicates that if the marriage market is favorable to women, that is if the ratio of women to men goes from 1.07 to 0.96, the increment in the household probability of owning at least one maid's substitute durable goods is equivalent to 24% the impact of moving a household up one income quintile. Moreover, the results indicate that daughters' time substitutes for wives' time and maid services in home production. Parents may want daughters trained in home production to be able to perform their future role as wives. However, this training comes at a cost to daughters' investment in formal education, narrowing their future career options. The data used in the third paper come from a Brazilian household survey, Pesquisa Nacional Por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD). Gender roles are responsible for women to choose female-dominated occupations, married women are 1.14 times more likely to work in female-dominated occupations and having a child six years and older increases on average by 12% the probability that women work in female-dominated occupations instead of genderintegrated occupations in 2001. However, it becomes easier for all types of women to enter into male-dominated and gender-integrated occupations in 2001 compared to 1981.

Pricing derivatives with stochastic volatility

This Ph.D. thesis contains 4 essays in mathematical finance with a focus on pricing Asian option (Chapter 4), pricing futures and futures option (Chapter 5 and Chapter 6) and time dependent volatility in futures option (Chapter 7). In Chapter 4, the applicability of the Albrecher et al.(2005)'s comonotonicity approach was investigated in the context of various benchmark models for equities and com- modities. Instead of classical Levy models as in Albrecher et al.(2005), the focus is the Heston stochastic volatility model, the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model and the Schwartz (1997) two-factor model. It is shown that the method delivers rather tight upper bounds for the prices of Asian Options in these models and as a by-product delivers super-hedging strategies which can be easily implemented. In Chapter 5, two types of three-factor models were studied to give the value of com- modities futures contracts, which allow volatility to be stochastic. Both these two models have closed-form solutions for futures contracts price. However, it is shown that Model 2 is better than Model 1 theoretically and also performs very well empiri- cally. Moreover, Model 2 can easily be implemented in practice. In comparison to the Schwartz (1997) two-factor model, it is shown that Model 2 has its unique advantages; hence, it is also a good choice to price the value of commodity futures contracts. Fur- thermore, if these two models are used at the same time, a more accurate price for commodity futures contracts can be obtained in most situations. In Chapter 6, the applicability of the asymptotic approach developed in Fouque et al.(2000b) was investigated for pricing commodity futures options in a Schwartz (1997) multi-factor model, featuring both stochastic convenience yield and stochastic volatility. It is shown that the zero-order term in the expansion coincides with the Schwartz (1997) two-factor term, with averaged volatility, and an explicit expression for the first-order correction term is provided. With empirical data from the natural gas futures market, it is also demonstrated that a significantly better calibration can be achieved by using the correction term as compared to the standard Schwartz (1997) two-factor expression, at virtually no extra effort. In Chapter 7, a new pricing formula is derived for futures options in the Schwartz (1997) two-factor model with time dependent spot volatility. The pricing formula can also be used to find the result of the time dependent spot volatility with futures options prices in the market. Furthermore, the limitations of the method that is used to find the time dependent spot volatility will be explained, and it is also shown how to make sure of its accuracy.

Nutrient content in aboveground biomass of Brazilian peanut cultivars in conservation tillage on sugarcane straw and pasture area.

Fields studies were conducted in 2004/2005 in order to evaluate the effects of tillage on nutrient content in aboveground biomass of two peanut cultivars, cultivated in rotation after mechanical harvested sugarcane and pastures. These trials were carried out in two types of soils; Oxisol and Ultisol, respectively in Ribeir?ao Preto and Mirassol, S?ao Paulo State, Brazil. The experimental design was split-plot with four replications. Tillage treatments (conventional, minimum and no-tillage) were main plots while sub-plots were peanut genotypes IAC-Tatu ST (Valencia market-type, erect growth habit, red seed coat, maturity range around 100 days after planting) and IAC-Caiap´o (Runner market-type, prostate growth habit, pink testa, maturity range more than 135 days). From 15 to 90 days after emergence, samples of leaves and stems were harvested, dried, weighted and ground to determine macro and micronutrient concentration. At 75 days after sowing, the cultivar IAC-Caiap´o showed higher contents of N, P, K, Cu, and Zn while IAC-Tatu presented higher concentrations of Ca, Mg, and S. Zn content was higher in conservation tillage than in conventional, mainly in Oxisoil for both of cultivars.