A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the (feasible) bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular, it is asymptotically equivalent to the conditional expectation, i.e., has an optimal limiting mean-squared error. We also develop a zeromean test for the average bias and discuss the forecast-combination puzzle in small and large samples. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the feasible bias-corrected average forecast in finite samples. An empirical exercise, based upon data from a well known survey is also presented. Overall, these results show promise for the feasible bias-corrected average forecast.

Welfare costs of inflation when interest-bearing deposits are disregarded: a calculation of the bias

Most estimates of the welfare costs of in ation are devised considering only noninterest- bearing assets, ignoring that since the 80s technological innovations and new regulations have increased the liquidity of interest-bearing deposits. We investigate the resulting bias. Suscient and necessary conditions on its sign are presented, along with closed-form expressions for its magnitude. Two examples dealing with bidimensional bilogarithmic money demands show that disregarding interest-bearing monies may lead to a non-negligible overestimation of the welfare costs of in ation. An intuitive explanation is that such assets may partially make up for the decreased demand of noninterest-bearing assets due to higher in ation.

Comportamento de ajuda entre os "bóias-frias": um estudo exploratório

Esta pesquisa visou levantar as manifestações do comportamento de ajuda entre "bóias-frias" através de seu próprio reato, com o objetivo de analisar as implicações deste comportamento para sua organização social enquanto um grupo específico. Foram entrevistados 47 sujeitos, de ambos os sexos, no seu local de trabalho . O instrumento utilizado foi uma entrevista estruturada construída pela autora desta pesquisa , composta de 26 questões. Estas questões buscaram levantar frequência, razões e situações de ajudai solicitada ou espontânea, do entrevistado em relação aos colegas e de seus colegas em relação a ele mesmo, no trabalho e fora dele . Observou-se que quando perguntados se prestam e recebem ajuda, houve um grande índice de respostas afirmativas e quando solicitados a relatar as situações ocorridas, o índice de respostas diminuiu consideravelmente . Foram discutidas as possíveis razões para a ocorrência de tal fato. A análise das situações de ajuda narradas serviu para a compreensão de como a estrutura do trabalho volante determina as formas que assumem as relações de ajuda entre os "bóias-frias" e o quanto estas relações I por sua vez, influenciam a estruturação das relações sociais destes trabalhadores.

Is there a price puzzle in Brazil? an application of bias- corrected bootstrap

Using data from the United States, Japan, Germany , United Kingdom and France, Sims (1992) found that positive innovations to shortterm interest rates led to sharp, persistent increases in the price leveI. The result was confirmed by other authors and, as a consequence of its non-expectable nature, was given the name "price puzzle" by Eichenbaum (1992). In this paper I investigate the existence of a price puzzle in Brazil using the same type of estimation and benchmark identification scheme employed by Christiano et aI. (2000). In a methodological improvement over these studies, I qualify the results with the construction of bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals. Even though the data does show the existence of a statistically significant price puzzle in Brazil, it lasts for .only one quarter and is quantitatively immaterial.

Bias and size effects of price-comparison search engines : theory and experimental evidence

We analyze the impact on consumer prices of the size and bias of price comparison search engines. In the context of a model related to Burdett and Judd (1983) and Varian (1980), we develop and test experimentally several theoretical predictions. The experimental results confirm the model’s predictions regarding the impact of the number of firms, and the type of bias of the search engine, but reject the model’s predictions regarding changes in the size of the index. The explanatory power of an econometric model for the price distributions is significantly improved when variables accounting for risk attitudes are introduced.

Overconfidence and confirmation bias: are future managers vulnerable?

Decision makers often use ‘rules of thumb’, or heuristics, to help them handling decision situations (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979b). Those cognitive shortcuts are taken by the brain to cope with complexity and time limitation of decisions, by reducing the burden of information processing (Hodgkinson et al, 1999; Newell and Simon, 1972). Although crucial for decision-making, heuristics come at the cost of occasionally sending us off course, that is, make us fall into judgment traps (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). Over fifty years of psychological research has shown that heuristics can lead to systematic errors, or biases, in decision-making. This study focuses on two particularly impactful biases to decision-making – the overconfidence and confirmation biases. A specific group – top management school students and recent graduates - were subject to classic experiments to measure their level of susceptibility to those biases. This population is bound to take decision positions at companies, and eventually make decisions that will impact not only their companies but society at large. The results show that this population is strongly biased by overconfidence, but less so to the confirmation bias. No significant relationship between the level of susceptibility to the overconfidence and to the confirmation bias was found.

Bias from ignoring price dispersion in demand estimation

Consumers often pay different prices for the same product bought in the same store at the same time. However, the demand estimation literature has ignored that fact using, instead, aggregate measures such as the “list” or average price. In this paper we show that this will lead to biased price coefficients. Furthermore, we perform simple comparative statics simulation exercises for the logit and random coefficient models. In the “list” price case we find that the bias is larger when discounts are higher, proportion of consumers facing discount prices is higher and when consumers are more unwilling to buy the product so that they almost only do it when facing discount. In the average price case we find that the bias is larger when discounts are higher, proportion of consumers that have access to discount are similar to the ones that do not have access and when consumers willingness to buy is very dependent on idiosyncratic shocks. Also bias is less problematic in the average price case in markets with a lot of bargain deals, so that prices are as good as individual. We conclude by proposing ways that the econometrician can reduce this bias using different information that he may have available.

Home bias no mercado de capitais brasileiro : um estudo sobre a custódia de investidores em ações

A presente dissertação apresenta uma análise da concentração do portfólio de a-ções de investidores brasileiros nas próprias empresas onde trabalham com o intuito de observar se o Home Bias se aplica à amostra analisada. Nosso estudo foi reali-zado com uma amostra extraída da custódia de 86 clientes de uma corretora de va-lores mobiliários, sendo estes dados reais de mercado. Restringimos a seleção da amostra de forma que metade fosse de clientes que trabalham em empresas de ca-pital aberto e a outra metade não. Foi feita análise cross section de quanto os inves-tidores alocam em ações das empresas para a qual trabalham e verificou-se qual o percentual desta participação em seus portfólios, em comparação a uma amostra de controle de investidores que não trabalham nesta mesma empresa. Além destas a-nálises, separamos a amostra pelo valor total do portfólio e realizamos os mesmos estudos com estes dois grupos diferentes da amostra. Como uma análise de robus-tez, identificamos empresas listadas que não adotam a remuneração com ações como uma sub-amostra do estudo. Como resultado, encontramos evidências de que os funcionários investem significativamente mais (seja em proporção do portfólio ou em valores) em ações das empresas onde trabalham em relação aos demais inves-tidores, evidenciando um viés de familiaridade na tomada de decisão de investimen-tos.

A situation awareness interface for a bi-wheeled industrial hovercraft: design, development and evaluation

The intention of this thesis is to develop a prototype interface that enables an operator to control a bi-wheeled industrial hovercraft that will work within a fusion power plant if the automation system fails. This fusion power plant is part of the ITER project a conjoint effort of various industrialized countries to develop cleaner sources of energy. The development of the interface prototype will be based on situation awareness concepts, which provide a means to understand how human operators perceive the world around, then process that information and make decisions based on the knowledge that they already have and the projected knowledge of the reactions that will occur in the world in response to the actions the operator makes. Two major situation awareness methods will be used, GDTA as a means to discover the requirements the interface needs to solve, and SAGAT to conduct the evaluation on the three interfaces. This technique can isolate the differences an operator has in situation awareness when presented with relevant information given by each of the three interfaces that were built for this thesis. Where the first interface presents the information within the operator’s focal point of view in a pictorial style, the second interface shows the same information within the same point of view has the first interface but only shows it in a textual manner. While the third interface shows the relevant information in the operator’s peripheral field of view. Also SAGAT can provide insight on the question to know if providing the operator with feed-forward information about the stoppage distances of the bi-wheeled industrial hovercraft has any effect on the operator’s decision making.

Hudumia: a platform to support spontaneous volunteers' situational awareness, coordination and safety underemergency scenarios

Spontaneous volunteers always emerge under emergency scenarios and are vital to a successful community response, yet some uncertainty subsists around their role and its inherent acceptance by official entities under emergency scenarios. In our research we have identified that most of the spontaneous volunteers do have none or little support from official entities, hence they end up facing critical problems as situational awareness, safety instructions and guidance, motivation and group organization. We argue that official entities still play a crucial role and should change some of their behaviors regarding spontaneous volunteerism. We aim with this thesis to design a software architecture and a framework in order to implement a solution to support spontaneous volunteerism under emergency scenarios along with a set of guidelines for the design of open information management systems. Together with the collaboration from both citizens and emergency professionals we have been able to attain several important contributions, as the clear identification of the roles taken by both spontaneous volunteers and professionals, the importance of volunteerism in overall community response and the role which open collaborative information management systems have in the community volunteering efforts. These conclusions have directly supported the design guidelines of our software solution proposal. In what concerns to methodology, we first review literature on technologies support to emergencies and how spontaneous volunteers actually challenge these systems. Following, we have performed a field research where we have observed that the emerging of spontaneous volunteer’s efforts imposes new requirements for the design of such systems, which leaded to the creation of a cluster of design guidelines that supported our software solution proposal to address the volunteers’ requirements. Finally we have architected and developed an online open information management tool which has been evaluated via usability engineering methods, usability user tests and heuristic evaluations.

Effect of target bias on magnetic field enhanced plasma immersion ion implantation

Recent studies have demonstrated that sheath dynamics in plasma immersion ion implantation (PIII) is significantly affected by an external magnetic field, especially in the case when the magnetic field is parallel to the workpiece surface or intersects it at small angles. In this work we report the results from two-dimensional, particle-in-cell (PIC) computer simulations of magnetic field enhanced plasma immersion implantation system at different bias voltages. The simulations begin with initial low-density nitrogen plasma, which extends with uniform density through a grounded cylindrical chamber. Negative bias voltage is applied to a cylindrical target located on the axis of the vacuum chamber. An axial magnetic field is created by a solenoid installed inside the target holder. A set of simulations at a fixed magnetic field of 0.0025 T at the target surface is performed. Secondary electron emission from the target subjected to ion bombardment is also included. It is found that the plasma density around the cylindrical target increases because of intense background gas ionization by the electrons drifting in the crossed E x B fields. Suppression of the sheath expansion and increase of the implantation current density in front of the high-density plasma region are observed. The effect of target bias on the sheath dynamics and implantation current of the magnetic field enhanced PIII is discussed. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Publication Bias in Five Dental Implant Journals: An Observation from 2005 to 2009

Purpose: This study evaluated possible publication bias and its related factors in implant-related research over time. Materials and Methods: Articles published in Clinical Implant Dentistry and Related Research, Clinical Oral Implants Research, Implant Dentistry, Journal of Oral Implantology, and The International Journal of Oral & Maxillofacial Implants between 2005 and 2009 were reviewed. Nonoriginal articles were excluded. For each article included, study outcome, extramural funding source, type of study, and geographic origin were recorded. Descriptive and analytic statistics (alpha = .05), including the chi-square test and logistic regression analysis, were performed where appropriate. Results: From a total of 2,085 articles, 1,503 met the inclusion criteria. of the articles analyzed, 1,226 (81.6%), 160 (10.6%), and 117 (7.8%) articles reported positive, negative, and neutral outcomes, respectively. In vitro studies, studies from Asia, and funded animal studies were more likely to report positive outcomes compared to others (P = .02, P < .0001, and P = .009, respectively). Industry-funded studies represented the lowest frequency of positive outcomes versus studies funded by other sources. Conclusions: There were a high number of implant-related studies reporting positive outcomes in the five selected journals. Some selected factors were associated with positive outcome bias. In general, funding was not associated with a positive outcome, except for animal studies. Industry-supported research did not show any association with the publication of positive outcomes. INT J ORAL MAXILLOFAC IMPLANTS 2011;26:1024-1032

Thermal dependence of the zero-bias conductance through a nanostructure

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Universal zero-bias conductance through a quantum wire side-coupled to a quantum dot

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Universal zero-bias conductance for the single-electron transistor

The thermal dependence of the zero-bias conductance for the single electron transistor is the target of two independent renormalization-group approaches, both based on the spin-degenerate Anderson impurity model. The first approach, an analytical derivation, maps the Kondo-regime conductance onto the universal conductance function for the particle-hole symmetric model. Linear, the mapping is parametrized by the Kondo temperature and the charge in the Kondo cloud. The second approach, a numerical renormalization-group computation of the conductance as a function the temperature and applied gate voltages offers a comprehensive view of zero-bias charge transport through the device. The first approach is exact in the Kondo regime; the second, essentially exact throughout the parametric space of the model. For illustrative purposes, conductance curves resulting from the two approaches are compared.