914 resultados para Application of Data-driven Modelling in Water Sciences


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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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A total of 2400 samples of commercial Brazilian C gasoline were collected over a 6-month period from different gas stations in the São Paulo state, Brazil, and analysed with respect to 12 physicochemical parameters according to regulation 309 of the Brazilian Government Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANP). The percentages (v/v) of hydrocarbons (olefins, aromatics and saturated) were also determined. Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) was employed to select 150 representative samples that exhibited least similarity on the basis of their physicochemical parameters and hydrocarbon compositions. The chromatographic profiles of the selected samples were measured by gas chromatography with flame ionisation detection and analysed using soft independent modelling of class analogy (SIMCA) method in order to create a classification scheme to identify conform gasolines according to ANP 309 regulation. Following the optimisation of the SIMCA algorithm, it was possible to classify correctly 96% of the commercial gasoline samples present in the training set of 100. In order to check the quality of the model, an external group of 50 gasoline samples (the prediction set) were analysed and the developed SIMCA model classified 94% of these correctly. The developed chemometric method is recommended for screening commercial gasoline quality and detection of potential adulteration. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Cellulose phosphate (CELLPHOS) was studied as a collector for analytical preconcentration of traces of Cd(II), Cr(III), Cu(II) and Ni(II) from aqueous sample solution. It has been proved that using chromatographic columns packed with CELLPHOS for preconcentration and 1.0 mol 1 -1 HCl for elution the adsorbed analytes are quantitatively enriched. An enrichment factor of 20 (100 ml sample, 5 ml concentrate) was achieved by this separation procedure, which was applied to a series of water analyses (river, sea, bog water).

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In the Nilo Coelho irrigation scheme, Brazil, the natural vegetation has been replaced by irrigated agriculture, bringing importance for the quantification of the effects on the energy exchanges between the mixed vegetated surfaces and the lower atmosphere. Landsat satellite images and agro-meteorological stations from 1992 to 2011 were used together, for modelling these exchanges. Surface albedo (α0), NDVI and surface temperature (T0) were the basic remote sensing retrieving parameters necessary to calculate the latent heat flux (λE) and the surface resistance to evapotranspiration (rs) on a large scale. The daily net radiation (Rn) was obtained from α0, air temperature (Ta) and short-wave transmissivity (τsw) throughout the slob equation, allowing the quantification of the daily sensible heat flux (H) by residual in the energy balance equation. With a threshold value for rs, it was possible to separate the energy fluxes from crops and natural vegetation. The averaged fractions of Rn partitioned as H and λE, were in average 39 and 67%, respectively. It was observed an increase of the energy used for the evapotranspiration process inside irrigated areas from 51% in 1992 to 80% in 2011, with the ratio λE/Rn presenting an increase of 3 % per year. The tools and models applied in the current research, can subsidize the monitoring of the coupled climate and land use changes effects in irrigation perimeters, being valuable when aiming the sustainability of the irrigated agriculture in the future, avoiding conflicts among different water users. © 2012 SPIE.

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Water security which is essential to life and livelihood, health and sanitation, is determined not only by the water resource, but also by the quality of water, the ability to store surplus from precipitation and runoff, as well as access to and affordability of supply. All of these measures have financial implications for national budgets. The water sector in the context of the assessment and discussion on the impact of climate change in this paper includes consideration of the existing as well as the projected available water resource and the demand in terms of: quantity and quality of surface and ground water, water supply infrastructure - collection, storage, treatment, distribution, and potential for adaptation. Wastewater management infrastructure is also considered a component of the water sector. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines has two distinct hydrological regimes: mainland St Vincent is one of the wetter islands of the eastern Caribbean whereas the Grenadines have a drier climate than St Vincent. Surface water is the primary source of water supply on St Vincent, whereas the Grenadines depend on man-made catchments, rainwater harvesting, wells, and desalination. The island state is considered already water stressed as marked seasonality in rainfall, inadequate supply infrastructure, and institutional capacity constrains water supply. Economic modelling approaches were implemented to estimate sectoral demand and supply between 2011 and 2050. Residential, tourism and domestic demand were analysed for the A2, B2 and BAU scenarios. In each of the three scenarios – A2, B2 and BAU Saint Vincent and the Grenadines will have a water gap represented by the difference between the two curves during the forecast period of 2011 and 2050. The amount of water required increases steadily between 2011 and 2050 implying an increasing demand on the country‘s resources as reflected by the fact that the water supply that is available cannot respond adequately to the demand. The Global Water Partnership in its 2005 policy brief suggested that the best way for countries to build the capacity to adapt to climate change will be to improve their ability to cope with today‘s climate variability (GWP, 2005). This suggestion is most applicable for St Vincent and the Grenadines, as the variability being experienced has already placed the island nation under water stress. Strategic priorities should therefore be adopted to increase water production, increase efficiency, strengthen the institutional framework, and decrease wastage. Cost benefit analysis was stymied by data availability, but the ―no-regrets approach‖ which intimates that adaptation measures will be beneficial to the land, people and economy of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines with or without climate change should be adopted.

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The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

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A method for the identification and quantification of pesticide residues in water, soil, and sediment samples has been developed, validated, and applied for the analysis of real samples. The specificity was determined by the retention time and the confirmation and quantification of analyte ions. Linearity was demonstrated over the concentration range of 20 to 120 µg L(-1), and the correlation coefficients varied between 0.979 and 0.996, depending on the analytes. The recovery rates for all analytes in the studied matrix were between 86% and 112%. The intermediate precision and repeatability were determined at three concentration levels (40, 80, and 120 µg L(-1)), with the relative standard deviation for the intermediate precision between 1% and 5.3% and the repeatability varying between 2% and 13.4% for individual analytes. The limits of detection and quantification for fipronil, fipronil sulfide, fipronil-sulfone, and fipronil-desulfinyl were 6.2, 3.0, 6.6, and 4.0 ng L(-1) and 20.4, 9.0, 21.6, and 13.0 ng L(-1), respectively. The method developed was used in water, soil, and sediment samples containing 2.1 mg L(-1) and 1.2% and 5.3% of carbon, respectively. The recovery of pesticides in the environmental matrices varied from 88.26 to 109.63% for the lowest fortification level (40 and 100 µg kg(-1)), from 91.17 to 110.18% for the intermediate level (80 and 200 µg kg(-1)), and from 89.09 to 109.82% for the highest fortification level (120 and 300 µg kg(-1)). The relative standard deviation for the recovery of pesticides was under 15%.

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From October 1996 through September 1998, we used bottom-mounted hydrophone arrays to monitor deep-water areas north and west of the British Isles for songs of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). Singing humpbacks were consistently detected between October and March from the Shetland- Faroe Islands south to waters west of the English Channel. Temporal and geographic patterns of song detections, and movements of individually tracked whales, exhibited a southwesterly trend over this period, but with no corresponding northward trend between April and September. These results, together with a review of historical data from this area, suggest that the offshore waters of the British Isles represent a migration corridor for humpbacks, at least some of which summer in Norwegian (and possibly eastern Icelandic) waters. The migratory destination of the detected animals remains unknown, but the limited data suggest that these whales are bound primarily for the West Indies rather than historical breeding areas off the northwestern coast of Africa. Humpbacks detected in British waters after early to mid- March probably do not undertake a full migration to the tropics. These data provide further evidence that singing is not confined to tropical waters in winter, but occurs commonly on migration even in high latitudes.

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We examine Weddell Sea deep water mass distributions with respect to the results from three different model runs using the oceanic component of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM). One run is inter-annually forced by corrected NCAR/NCEP fluxes, while the other two are forced with the annual cycle obtained from the same climatology. One of the latter runs includes an interactive sea-ice model. Optimum Multiparameter analysis is applied to separate the deep water masses in the Greenwich Meridian section (into the Weddell Sea only) to measure the degree of realism obtained in the simulations. First, we describe the distribution of the simulated deep water masses using observed water type indices. Since the observed indices do not provide an acceptable representation of the Weddell Sea deep water masses as expected, they are specifically adjusted for each simulation. Differences among the water masses` representations in the three simulations are quantified through their root-mean-square differences. Results point out the need for better representation (and inclusion) of ice-related processes in order to improve the oceanic characteristics and variability of dense Southern Ocean water masses in the outputs of the NCAR-CCSM model, and probably in other ocean and climate models.

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Aerosol particles and water vapour are two important constituents of the atmosphere. Their interaction, i.e. thecondensation of water vapour on particles, brings about the formation of cloud, fog, and raindrops, causing the water cycle on the earth, and being responsible for climate changes. Understanding the roles of water vapour and aerosol particles in this interaction has become an essential part of understanding the atmosphere. In this work, the heterogeneous nucleation on pre-existing aerosol particles by the condensation of water vapour in theflow of a capillary nozzle was investigated. Theoretical and numerical modelling as well as experiments on thiscondensation process were included. Based on reasonable results from the theoretical and numerical modelling, an idea of designing a new nozzle condensation nucleus counter (Nozzle-CNC), that is to utilise the capillary nozzle to create an expanding water saturated air flow, was then put forward and various experiments were carried out with this Nozzle-CNC under different experimental conditions. Firstly, the air stream in the long capillary nozzle with inner diameter of 1.0~mm was modelled as a steady, compressible and heat-conducting turbulence flow by CFX-FLOW3D computational program. An adiabatic and isentropic cooling in the nozzle was found. A supersaturation in the nozzle can be created if the inlet flow is water saturated, and its value depends principally on flow velocity or flow rate through the nozzle. Secondly, a particle condensational growth model in air stream was developed. An extended Mason's diffusion growthequation with size correction for particles beyond the continuum regime and with the correction for a certain particle Reynolds number in an accelerating state was given. The modelling results show the rapid condensational growth of aerosol particles, especially for fine size particles, in the nozzle stream, which, on the one hand, may induce evident `over-sizing' and `over-numbering' effects in aerosol measurements as nozzle designs are widely employed for producing accelerating and focused aerosol beams in aerosol instruments like optical particle counter (OPC) and aerodynamical particle sizer (APS). It can, on the other hand, be applied in constructing the Nozzle-CNC. Thirdly, based on the optimisation of theoretical and numerical results, the new Nozzle-CNC was built. Under various experimental conditions such as flow rate, ambient temperature, and the fraction of aerosol in the total flow, experiments with this instrument were carried out. An interesting exponential relation between the saturation in the nozzle and the number concentration of atmospheric nuclei, including hygroscopic nuclei (HN), cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and traditionally measured atmospheric condensation nuclei (CN), was found. This relation differs from the relation for the number concentration of CCN obtained by other researchers. The minimum detectable size of this Nozzle-CNC is 0.04?m. Although further improvements are still needed, this Nozzle-CNC, in comparison with other CNCs, has severaladvantages such as no condensation delay as particles larger than the critical size grow simultaneously, low diffusion losses of particles, little water condensation at the inner wall of the instrument, and adjustable saturation --- therefore the wide counting region, as well as no calibration compared to non-water condensation substances.

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Die beiden in dieser Arbeit betrachteten Systeme, wässrige Lösungen von Ionen und ionische Flüssigkeiten, zeigen vielfältige Eigenschaften und Anwendungsmöglichkeiten, im Gegensatz zu anderen Systemen. Man findet sie beinahe überall im normalen Leben (Wasser), oder ihre Bedeutung wächst (ioinische Flüssigkeiten). Der elektronische Anteil und der atomare Anteil wurden getrennt voneinander untersucht und im Zusammenhang analysiert. Mittels dieser Methode konnten die in dem jeweiligen System auftretenden Mechanismen genauer untersucht werden. Diese Methode wird "Multiscale Modeling" genannt, dabei werden die Untereinheiten eines Systems genauer betrachtet, wie in diesem Fall die elektronischen and atomaren Teilsystem. Die Ergebnisse, die aus den jeweiligen Betrachtungen hervorgehen, zeigen, dass, im Falle von hydratisierten Ionen die Wasser-Wasser Wechselwirkungen wesentlich stärker sind als die elektrostatischen Wechselwirkung zwischen Wasser und dem Ion. Anhand der Ergebnisse ergibt sich, dass normale nicht-polarisierbare Modelle ausreichen, um Ionen-Wasser Lösungen zu beschreiben. Im Falle der ionischen Flüssigkeiten betrachten wir die elektronische Ebene mittels sehr genauer post-Hartree-Fock Methoden und DFT, deren Ergebnisse dann mit denen auf molekularer Ebene (mithilfe von CPMD/klassischer MD) in Beziehung gesetzt werden. Die bisherigen Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Wasserstoff-Brückenbindungen im Fall der ionischen Flüssigkeiten nicht vernachässigt werden können. Weiterhin hat diese Studie herausgefunden, dass die klassischen Kraftfelder die Elektrostatik (Dipol- und Quadrupolmomente) nicht genau genug beschreibt. Die Kombination des mikroskopischen Mechanismus und der molekularen Eigenschaften ist besonders sinnvoll um verschiedene Anhaltspunkte von Simualtionen (z.B. mit klassische Molekular-Dynamik) oder Experimenten zu liefern oder solche zu erklären.

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Atmospheric aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are key elements of the hydrological cycle and climate. Knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of CCN in the atmosphere is essential to understand and describe the effects of aerosols in meteorological models. In this study, CCN properties were measured in polluted and pristine air of different continental regions, and the results were parameterized for efficient prediction of CCN concentrations.The continuous-flow CCN counter used for size-resolved measurements of CCN efficiency spectra (activation curves) was calibrated with ammonium sulfate and sodium chloride aerosols for a wide range of water vapor supersaturations (S=0.068% to 1.27%). A comprehensive uncertainty analysis showed that the instrument calibration depends strongly on the applied particle generation techniques, Köhler model calculations, and water activity parameterizations (relative deviations in S up to 25%). Laboratory experiments and a comparison with other CCN instruments confirmed the high accuracy and precision of the calibration and measurement procedures developed and applied in this study.The mean CCN number concentrations (NCCN,S) observed in polluted mega-city air and biomass burning smoke (Beijing and Pearl River Delta, China) ranged from 1000 cm−3 at S=0.068% to 16 000 cm−3 at S=1.27%, which is about two orders of magnitude higher than in pristine air at remote continental sites (Swiss Alps, Amazonian rainforest). Effective average hygroscopicity parameters, κ, describing the influence of chemical composition on the CCN activity of aerosol particles were derived from the measurement data. They varied in the range of 0.3±0.2, were size-dependent, and could be parameterized as a function of organic and inorganic aerosol mass fraction. At low S (≤0.27%), substantial portions of externally mixed CCN-inactive particles with much lower hygroscopicity were observed in polluted air (fresh soot particles with κ≈0.01). Thus, the aerosol particle mixing state needs to be known for highly accurate predictions of NCCN,S. Nevertheless, the observed CCN number concentrations could be efficiently approximated using measured aerosol particle number size distributions and a simple κ-Köhler model with a single proxy for the effective average particle hygroscopicity. The relative deviations between observations and model predictions were on average less than 20% when a constant average value of κ=0.3 was used in conjunction with variable size distribution data. With a constant average size distribution, however, the deviations increased up to 100% and more. The measurement and model results demonstrate that the aerosol particle number and size are the major predictors for the variability of the CCN concentration in continental boundary layer air, followed by particle composition and hygroscopicity as relatively minor modulators. Depending on the required and applicable level of detail, the measurement results and parameterizations presented in this study can be directly implemented in detailed process models as well as in large-scale atmospheric and climate models for efficient description of the CCN activity of atmospheric aerosols.