Model specification and forecasting foreign exchange rates with vector autoregressions

This study examines the forecasting accuracy of alternative vector autoregressive models each in a seven-variable system that comprises in turn of daily, weekly and monthly foreign exchange (FX) spot rates. The vector autoregressions (VARs) are in non-stationary, stationary and error-correction forms and are estimated using OLS. The imposition of Bayesian priors in the OLS estimations also allowed us to obtain another set of results. We find that there is some tendency for the Bayesian estimation method to generate superior forecast measures relatively to the OLS method. This result holds whether or not the data sets contain outliers. Also, the best forecasts under the non-stationary specification outperformed those of the stationary and error-correction specifications, particularly at long forecast horizons, while the best forecasts under the stationary and error-correction specifications are generally similar. The findings for the OLS forecasts are consistent with recent simulation results. The predictive ability of the VARs is very weak.

Modelling and benchmarking business processes: The supply-line example

Benchmarking techniques have evolved over the years since Xerox’s pioneering visits to Japan in the late 1970s. The focus of benchmarking has also shifted during this period. By tracing in detail the evolution of benchmarking in one specific area of business activity, supply and distribution management, as seen by the participants in that evolution, creates a picture of a movement from single function, cost-focused, competitive benchmarking, through cross-functional, cross-sectoral, value-oriented benchmarking to process benchmarking. As process efficiency and effectiveness become the primary foci of benchmarking activities, the measurement parameters used to benchmark performance converge with the factors used in business process modelling. The possibility is therefore emerging of modelling business processes and then feeding the models with actual data from benchmarking exercises. This would overcome the most common criticism of benchmarking, namely that it intrinsically lacks the ability to move beyond current best practice. In fact the combined power of modelling and benchmarking may prove to be the basic building block of informed business process re-engineering.

Mathematical modelling and optimal multivariable control of chemical processes

This work reports the developnent of a mathenatical model and distributed, multi variable computer-control for a pilot plant double-effect climbing-film evaporator. A distributed-parameter model of the plant has been developed and the time-domain model transformed into the Laplace domain. The model has been further transformed into an integral domain conforming to an algebraic ring of polynomials, to eliminate the transcendental terms which arise in the Laplace domain due to the distributed nature of the plant model. This has made possible the application of linear control theories to a set of linear-partial differential equations. The models obtained have well tracked the experimental results of the plant. A distributed-computer network has been interfaced with the plant to implement digital controllers in a hierarchical structure. A modern rnultivariable Wiener-Hopf controller has been applled to the plant model. The application has revealed a limitation condition that the plant matrix should be positive-definite along the infinite frequency axis. A new multi variable control theory has emerged fram this study, which avoids the above limitation. The controller has the structure of the modern Wiener-Hopf controller, but with a unique feature enabling a designer to specify the closed-loop poles in advance and to shape the sensitivity matrix as required. In this way, the method treats directly the interaction problems found in the chemical processes with good tracking and regulation performances. Though the ability of the analytical design methods to determine once and for all whether a given set of specifications can be met is one of its chief advantages over the conventional trial-and-error design procedures. However, one disadvantage that offsets to some degree the enormous advantages is the relatively complicated algebra that must be employed in working out all but the simplest problem. Mathematical algorithms and computer software have been developed to treat some of the mathematical operations defined over the integral domain, such as matrix fraction description, spectral factorization, the Bezout identity, and the general manipulation of polynomial matrices. Hence, the design problems of Wiener-Hopf type of controllers and other similar algebraic design methods can be easily solved.

Modelling and control of a hybrid stepping motor

The integration of a microprocessor and a medium power stepper motor in one control system brings together two quite different disciplines. Various methods of interfacing are examined and the problems involved in both hardware and software manipulation are investigated. Microprocessor open-loop control of the stepper motor is considered. The possible advantages of microprocessor closed-loop control are examined and the development of a system is detailed. The system uses position feedback to initiate each motor step. Results of the dynamic response of the system are presented and its performance discussed. Applications of the static torque characteristic of the stepper motor are considered followed by a review of methods of predicting the characteristic. This shows that accurate results are possible only when the effects of magnetic saturation are avoided or when the machine is available for magnetic circuit tests to be carried out. A new method of predicting the static torque characteristic is explained in detail. The method described uses the machine geometry and the magnetic characteristics of the iron types used in the machine. From this information the permeance of each iron component of the machine is calculated and by using the equivalent magnetic circuit of the machine, the total torque produced is predicted. It is shown how this new method is implemented on a digital computer and how the model may be used to investigate further aspects of the stepper motor in addition to the static torque.

Mathematical modelling and optimisation of a water heat pump

The purpose of the work described here has been to seek methods of narrowing the present gap between currently realised heat pump performance and the theoretical limit. The single most important pre-requisite to this objective is the identification and quantitative assessment of the various non-idealities and degradative phenomena responsible for the present shortfall. The use of availability analysis has been introduced as a diagnostic tool, and applied to a few very simple, highly idealised Rankine cycle optimisation problems. From this work, it has been demonstrated that the scope for improvement through optimisation is small in comparison with the extensive potential for improvement by reducing the compressor's losses. A fully instrumented heat pump was assembled and extensively tested. This furnished performance data, and led to an improved understanding of the systems behaviour. From a very simple analysis of the resulting compressor performance data, confirmation of the compressor's low efficiency was obtained. In addition, in order to obtain experimental data concerning specific details of the heat pump's operation, several novel experiments were performed. The experimental work was concluded with a set of tests which attempted to obtain definitive performance data for a small set of discrete operating conditions. These tests included an investigation of the effect of two compressor modifications. The resulting performance data was analysed by a sophisticated calculation which used that measurements to quantify each dagradative phenomenon occurring in that compressor, and so indicate where the greatest potential for improvement lies. Finally, in the light of everything that was learnt, specific technical suggestions have been made, to reduce the losses associated with both the refrigerant circuit and the compressor.

Modelling and measurements on a condensing counter-flow heat exchanger

Experimental investigations and computer modelling studies have been made on the refrigerant-water counterflow condenser section of a small air to water heat pump. The main object of the investigation was a comparative study between the computer modelling predictions and the experimental observations for a range of operating conditions but other characteristics of a counterflow heat exchanger are also discussed. The counterflow condenser consisted of 15 metres of a thermally coupled pair of copper pipes, one containing the R12 working fluid and the other water flowing in the opposite direction. This condenser was mounted horizontally and folded into 0.5 metre straight sections. Thermocouples were inserted in both pipes at one metre intervals and transducers for pressure and flow measurement were also included. Data acquisition, storage and analysis was carried out by a micro-computer suitably interfaced with the transducers and thermocouples. Many sets of readings were taken under a variety of conditions, with air temperature ranging from 18 to 26 degrees Celsius, water inlet from 13.5 to 21.7 degrees, R12 inlet temperature from 61.2 to 81.7 degrees and water mass flow rate from 6.7 to 32.9 grammes per second. A Fortran computer model of the condenser (originally prepared by Carrington[1]) has been modified to match the information available from experimental work. This program uses iterative segmental integration over the desuperheating, mixed phase and subcooled regions for the R12 working fluid, the water always being in the liquid phase. Methods of estimating the inlet and exit fluid conditions from the available experimental data have been developed for application to the model. Temperature profiles and other parameters have been predicted and compared with experimental values for the condenser for a range of evaporator conditions and have shown that the model gives a satisfactory prediction of the physical behaviour of a simple counterflow heat exchanger in both single phase and two phase regions.

Mathematical modelling and control of agitated extraction columns

Liquid-liquid extraction has long been known as a unit operation that plays an important role in industry. This process is well known for its complexity and sensitivity to operation conditions. This thesis presents an attempt to explore the dynamics and control of this process using a systematic approach and state of the art control system design techniques. The process was studied first experimentally under carefully selected. operation conditions, which resembles the ranges employed practically under stable and efficient conditions. Data were collected at steady state conditions using adequate sampling techniques for the dispersed and continuous phases as well as during the transients of the column with the aid of a computer-based online data logging system and online concentration analysis. A stagewise single stage backflow model was improved to mimic the dynamic operation of the column. The developed model accounts for the variation in hydrodynamics, mass transfer, and physical properties throughout the length of the column. End effects were treated by addition of stages at the column entrances. Two parameters were incorporated in the model namely; mass transfer weight factor to correct for the assumption of no mass transfer in the. settling zones at each stage and the backmixing coefficients to handle the axial dispersion phenomena encountered in the course of column operation. The parameters were estimated by minimizing the differences between the experimental and the model predicted concentration profiles at steady state conditions using non-linear optimisation technique. The estimated values were then correlated as functions of operating parameters and were incorporated in·the model equations. The model equations comprise a stiff differential~algebraic system. This system was solved using the GEAR ODE solver. The calculated concentration profiles were compared to those experimentally measured. A very good agreement of the two profiles was achieved within a percent relative error of ±2.S%. The developed rigorous dynamic model of the extraction column was used to derive linear time-invariant reduced-order models that relate the input variables (agitator speed, solvent feed flowrate and concentration, feed concentration and flowrate) to the output variables (raffinate concentration and extract concentration) using the asymptotic method of system identification. The reduced-order models were shown to be accurate in capturing the dynamic behaviour of the process with a maximum modelling prediction error of I %. The simplicity and accuracy of the derived reduced-order models allow for control system design and analysis of such complicated processes. The extraction column is a typical multivariable process with agitator speed and solvent feed flowrate considered as manipulative variables; raffinate concentration and extract concentration as controlled variables and the feeds concentration and feed flowrate as disturbance variables. The control system design of the extraction process was tackled as multi-loop decentralised SISO (Single Input Single Output) as well as centralised MIMO (Multi-Input Multi-Output) system using both conventional and model-based control techniques such as IMC (Internal Model Control) and MPC (Model Predictive Control). Control performance of each control scheme was. studied in terms of stability, speed of response, sensitivity to modelling errors (robustness), setpoint tracking capabilities and load rejection. For decentralised control, multiple loops were assigned to pair.each manipulated variable with each controlled variable according to the interaction analysis and other pairing criteria such as relative gain array (RGA), singular value analysis (SVD). Loops namely Rotor speed-Raffinate concentration and Solvent flowrate Extract concentration showed weak interaction. Multivariable MPC has shown more effective performance compared to other conventional techniques since it accounts for loops interaction, time delays, and input-output variables constraints.

Modelling and experimental verification of a solar-powered liquid desiccant cooling system for greenhouse food production in hot climates

Experiments and theoretical modelling have been carried out to predict the performance of a solar-powered liquid desiccant cooling system for greenhouses. We have tested two components of the system in the laboratory using MgCl2 desiccant: (i) a regenerator which was tested under a solar simulator and (ii) a desiccator which was installed in a test duct. Theoretical models have been developed for both regenerator and desiccator and gave good agreement with the experiments. The verified computer model is used to predict the performance of the whole system during the hot summer months in Mumbai, Chittagong, Muscat, Messina and Havana. Taking examples of temperate, sub-tropical, tropical and heat-tolerant tropical crops (lettuce, soya bean, tomato and cucumber respectively) we estimate the extensions in growing seasons enabled by the system. Compared to conventional evaporative cooling, the desiccant system lowers average daily maximum temperatures in the hot season by 5.5-7.5 °C, sufficient to maintain viable growing conditions for lettuce throughout the year. In the case of tomato, cucumber and soya bean the system enables optimal cultivation through most summer months. It is concluded that the concept is technically viable and deserves testing by means of a pilot installation at an appropriate location.

Similarity between class A and class B G-protein-coupled receptors exemplified through calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor modelling and mutagenesis studies

Modelling class B G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) using class A GPCR structural templates is difficult due to lack of homology. The plant GPCR, GCR1, has homology to both class A and class B GPCRs. We have used this to generate a class A-class B alignment, and by incorporating maximum lagged correlation of entropy and hydrophobicity into a consensus score, we have been able to align receptor transmembrane regions. We have applied this analysis to generate active and inactive homology models of the class B calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) receptor, and have supported it with site-directed mutagenesis data using 122 CGRP receptor residues and 144 published mutagenesis results on other class B GPCRs. The variation of sequence variability with structure, the analysis of polarity violations, the alignment of group-conserved residues and the mutagenesis results at 27 key positions were particularly informative in distinguishing between the proposed and plausible alternative alignments. Furthermore, we have been able to associate the key molecular features of the class B GPCR signalling machinery with their class A counterparts for the first time. These include the [K/R]KLH motif in intracellular loop 1, [I/L]xxxL and KxxK at the intracellular end of TM5 and TM6, the NPXXY/VAVLY motif on TM7 and small group-conserved residues in TM1, TM2, TM3 and TM7. The equivalent of the class A DRY motif is proposed to involve Arg(2.39), His(2.43) and Glu(3.46), which makes a polar lock with T(6.37). These alignments and models provide useful tools for understanding class B GPCR function.

The definition, theoretical modelling and empirical research of front-line service employee corporate identity within a UK national grocery retailer:determining the FLE corporate brand identification construct

Over the past forty years the corporate identity literature has developed to a point of maturity where it currently contains many definitions and models of the corporate identity construct at the organisational level. The literature has evolved by developing models of corporate identity or in considering corporate identity in relation to new and developing themes, e.g. corporate social responsibility. It has evolved into a multidisciplinary domain recently incorporating constructs from other literature to further its development. However, the literature has a number of limitations. It remains that an overarching and universally accepted definition of corporate identity is elusive, potentially leaving the construct with a lack of clear definition. Only a few corporate identity definitions and models, at the corporate level, have been empirically tested. The corporate identity construct is overwhelmingly defined and theoretically constructed at the corporate level, leaving the literature without a detailed understanding of its influence at an individual stakeholder level. Front-line service employees (FLEs), form a component in a number of corporate identity models developed at the organisational level. FLEs deliver the services of an organisation to its customers, as well as represent the organisation by communicating and transporting its core defining characteristics to customers through continual customer contact and interaction. This person-to-person contact between an FLE and the customer is termed a service encounter, where service encounters influence a customer’s perception of both the service delivered and the associated level of service quality. Therefore this study for the first time defines, theoretically models and empirically tests corporate identity at the individual FLE level, termed FLE corporate identity. The study uses the services marketing literature to characterise an FLE’s operating environment, arriving at five potential dimensions to the FLE corporate identity construct. These are scrutinised against existing corporate identity definitions and models to arrive at a definition for the construct. In reviewing the corporate identity, services marketing, branding and organisational psychology literature, a theoretical model is developed for FLE corporate identity, which is empirically and quantitatively tested, with FLEs in seven stores of a major national retailer. Following rigorous construct reliability and validity testing, the 601 usable responses are used to estimate a confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation model for the study. The results for the individual hypotheses and the structural model are very encouraging, as they fit the data well and support a definition of FLE corporate identity. This study makes contributions to the branding, services marketing and organisational psychology literature, but its principal contribution is to extend the corporate identity literature into a new area of discourse and research, that of FLE corporate identity

The role of ECL2 in CGRP receptor activation:a combined modelling and experimental approach

The calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) receptor is a complex of a cal-citonin receptor-like receptor (CLR), which is a family B G-protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) and receptor activity modifying protein 1. The role of the second extracellular loop (ECL2) of CLR in binding CGRP and coupling to Gs was investigated using a combination of mutagenesis and modelling. An alanine scan of residues 271-294 of CLR showed that the ability of CGRP to produce cAMP was impaired by point mutations at 13 residues; most of these also impaired the response to adrenomedullin (AM). These data were used to select probable ECL2-modelled conformations that are involved in agonist binding, allowing the identification of the likely contacts between the peptide and receptor. The implications of the most likely structures for receptor activation are discussed. © 2013 The Authors.