Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post-peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition

Design and techno-economic evaluation of microbial oil production as a renewable resource for biodiesel and oleochemical production

Experimental results from the open literature have been employed for the design and techno-economic evaluation of four process flowsheets for the production of microbial oil or biodiesel. The fermentation of glucose-based media using the yeast strain Rhodosporidium toruloides has been considered. Biodiesel production was based on the exploitation of either direct transesterification (without extraction of lipids from microbial biomass) or indirect transesterifaction of extracted microbial oil. When glucose-based renewable resources are used as carbon source for an annual production capacity of 10,000 t microbial oil and zero cost of glucose (assuming development of integrated biorefineries in existing industries utilising waste or by-product streams) the estimated unitary cost of purified microbial oil is $3.4/kg. Biodiesel production via indirect transesterification of extracted microbial oil proved more cost-competitive process compared to the direct conversion of dried yeast cells. For a price of glucose of $400/t oil production cost and biodiesel production cost are estimated to be $5.5/kg oil and $5.9/kg biodiesel, correspondingly. Industrial implementation of microbial oil production from oleaginous yeast is strongly dependent on the feedstock used and on the fermentation stage where significantly higher productivities and final microbial oil concentrations should be achieved.

Psychometric evaluation of the Disordered Eating Attitude Scale (DEAS). English version

Eating attitudes are defined as beliefs, thoughts, feelings, behaviors and relationship with food They could influence people`s food choices and their health status Objective This study aimed to adapt from Portuguese to English the Disordered Eating Attitude Scale (DEAS) and evaluate its validity and reliability. The original scale in Portuguese was translated and adapted into English and was applied to female university students of University of Minnesota USA (n = 224). Internal consistency was determined (Cronbach`s Alpha). Convergent validity was assessed by correlations between Eating Attitude Test-26 (EAT-26) and Restrain Scale (RS). Reliability was evaluated applying twice the scale to a sub-sample (n = 30). The scale was back translated into Portuguese and compared with the original version and discrepancies were not found. The internal consistency was .76 The DEAS total score was significantly associated with EAT-26 (r = 0.65) and RS (r = 0 69) scores The correlation between test-retest was r = 09 The English version of DEAS showed appropriate internal consistency, convergent validity and test-retest reliability and will be useful to assess eating attitudes in different population groups in English spoken countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

A Survey on Graphical Methods for Classification Predictive Performance Evaluation

Predictive performance evaluation is a fundamental issue in design, development, and deployment of classification systems. As predictive performance evaluation is a multidimensional problem, single scalar summaries such as error rate, although quite convenient due to its simplicity, can seldom evaluate all the aspects that a complete and reliable evaluation must consider. Due to this, various graphical performance evaluation methods are increasingly drawing the attention of machine learning, data mining, and pattern recognition communities. The main advantage of these types of methods resides in their ability to depict the trade-offs between evaluation aspects in a multidimensional space rather than reducing these aspects to an arbitrarily chosen (and often biased) single scalar measure. Furthermore, to appropriately select a suitable graphical method for a given task, it is crucial to identify its strengths and weaknesses. This paper surveys various graphical methods often used for predictive performance evaluation. By presenting these methods in the same framework, we hope this paper may shed some light on deciding which methods are more suitable to use in different situations.

Performance evaluation of routing protocols for MANETs with known connectivity patterns using evolving graphs

The assessment of routing protocols for mobile wireless networks is a difficult task, because of the networks` dynamic behavior and the absence of benchmarks. However, some of these networks, such as intermittent wireless sensors networks, periodic or cyclic networks, and some delay tolerant networks (DTNs), have more predictable dynamics, as the temporal variations in the network topology can be considered as deterministic, which may make them easier to study. Recently, a graph theoretic model-the evolving graphs-was proposed to help capture the dynamic behavior of such networks, in view of the construction of least cost routing and other algorithms. The algorithms and insights obtained through this model are theoretically very efficient and intriguing. However, there is no study about the use of such theoretical results into practical situations. Therefore, the objective of our work is to analyze the applicability of the evolving graph theory in the construction of efficient routing protocols in realistic scenarios. In this paper, we use the NS2 network simulator to first implement an evolving graph based routing protocol, and then to use it as a benchmark when comparing the four major ad hoc routing protocols (AODV, DSR, OLSR and DSDV). Interestingly, our experiments show that evolving graphs have the potential to be an effective and powerful tool in the development and analysis of algorithms for dynamic networks, with predictable dynamics at least. In order to make this model widely applicable, however, some practical issues still have to be addressed and incorporated into the model, like adaptive algorithms. We also discuss such issues in this paper, as a result of our experience.

Efficient and low cost devices for solar energy conversion: Efficiency and stability of some natural-dye-sensitized solar cells

Dye-sensitized solar cells, named by us Dye-Cells, are one of the most promising devices for solar energy conversion due to their reduced production cost and low environmental impact, especially those sensitized by natural dyes. The efficiency and stability of devices based on natural sensitizers such as mulberry (Morus alba Lam), blueberry (Vaccinium myrtillus Lam), and jaboticaba`s skin (Mirtus cauliflora Mart) were investigated. Dye-Cells prepared with aqueous mulberry extract presented the highest P(max) value (1.6 mW cm(-2)) with J(sc) = 6.14 mA cm(-2) and V(oc) = 0.49 V, Photoelectrochemical parameters of 16 cm(2) active area devices sensitized by mulberry dye were constant for 14 weeks of continuous evaluation. Moreover, the cell remained stable even after 36 weeks with a fairly good efficiency. Therefore, mulberry dye opens up a perspective of commercial feasibility for inexpensive and environmentally friendly Dye-Cells. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermal Evaluation of a Solarus PV-T collector

Low concentrator PV-T hybrid systems produce both electricity and thermal energy; this fact increases the overall efficiency of the system and reduces the cost of solar electricity. These systems use concentrators which are optical devices that concentrate sunlight on to solar cells and reduce expensive solar cell area. This thesis work deals with the thermal evaluation of a PV-T collector from Solarus.Firstly the thermal efficiency of the low concentrator collector was characterized for the thermal-collector without PV cells on the absorber. Only two types of paint were on the absorber, one for each trough of the collector. Both paints are black one is glossy and the other is dull,. The thermal efficiency at no temperature difference between collector and ambient for these two types of paint was 0.65 and 0.64 respectively; the U-value was 8.4 W/m2°C for the trough with the glossy type of paint and 8.6 W/m2°C for the trough with dull type of paint. The annual thermal output of these two paints was calculated for two different geographic locations, Casablanca, Morocco and Älvkarleby, Sweden.Secondly the thermal efficiency was defined for the PV-T collector with PV cells on the absorber. The PV cells cover 85% of the absorber, without any paint on the rest of the absorber area. We also tested how the electrical power output influences the thermal power output of the PV-T collector. The thermal and total performances for the PV-T collector were only characterized with reflector sides, because of the lack of time we could not characterize them with transparent sides also.

A Computer Vision Framework For Finger-Tapping Evaluation In Parkinson's Disease

Objective: To define and evaluate a Computer-Vision (CV) method for scoring Paced Finger-Tapping (PFT) in Parkinson's disease (PD) using quantitative motion analysis of index-fingers and to compare the obtained scores to the UPDRS (Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale) finger-taps (FT). Background: The naked-eye evaluation of PFT in clinical practice results in coarse resolution to determine PD status. Besides, sensor mechanisms for PFT evaluation may cause patients discomfort. In order to avoid cost and effort of applying wearable sensors, a CV system for non-invasive PFT evaluation is introduced. Methods: A database of 221 PFT videos from 6 PD patients was processed. The subjects were instructed to position their hands above their shoulders besides the face and tap the index-finger against the thumb consistently with speed. They were facing towards a pivoted camera during recording. The videos were rated by two clinicians between symptom levels 0-to-3 using UPDRS-FT. The CV method incorporates a motion analyzer and a face detector. The method detects the face of testee in each video-frame. The frame is split into two images from face-rectangle center. Two regions of interest are located in each image to detect index-finger motion of left and right hands respectively. The tracking of opening and closing phases of dominant hand index-finger produces a tapping time-series. This time-series is normalized by the face height. The normalization calibrates the amplitude in tapping signal which is affected by the varying distance between camera and subject (farther the camera, lesser the amplitude). A total of 15 features were classified using K-nearest neighbor (KNN) classifier to characterize the symptoms levels in UPDRS-FT. The target ratings provided by the raters were averaged. Results: A 10-fold cross validation in KNN classified 221 videos between 3 symptom levels with 75% accuracy. An area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 82.6% supports feasibility of the obtained features to replicate clinical assessments. Conclusions: The system is able to track index-finger motion to estimate tapping symptoms in PD. It has certain advantages compared to other technologies (e.g. magnetic sensors, accelerometers etc.) for PFT evaluation to improve and automate the ratings

Evaluation of a thermally driven heat pump for solar heating and cooling applications

Exploiting solar energy technology for both heating and cooling purposes has the potential of meeting an appreciable portion of the energy demand in buildings throughout the year. By developing an integrated, multi-purpose solar energy system, that can operate all twelve months of the year, a high utilisation factor can be achieved which translates to more economical systems. However, there are still some techno-economic barriers to the general commercialisation and market penetration of such technologies. These are associated with high system and installation costs, significant system complexity, and lack of knowledge of system implementation and expected performance. A sorption heat pump module that can be integrated directly into a solar thermal collector has thus been developed in order to tackle the aforementioned market barriers. This has been designed for the development of cost-effective pre-engineered solar energy system kits that can provide both heating and cooling. This thesis summarises the characterisation studies of the operation of individual sorption modules, sorption module integrated solar collectors and a full solar heating and cooling system employing sorption module integrated collectors. Key performance indicators for the individual sorption modules showed cooling delivery for 6 hours at an average power of 40 W and a temperature lift of 21°C. Upon integration of the sorption modules into a solar collector, measured solar radiation energy to cooling energy conversion efficiencies (solar cooling COP) were between 0.10 and 0.25 with average cooling powers between 90 and 200 W/m2 collector aperture area. Further investigations of the sorption module integrated collectors implementation in a full solar heating and cooling system yielded electrical cooling COP ranging from 1.7 to 12.6 with an average of 10.6 for the test period. Additionally, simulations were performed to determine system energy and cost saving potential for various system sizes over a full year of operation for a 140 m2 single-family dwelling located in Madrid, Spain. Simulations yielded an annual solar fraction of 42% and potential cost savings of €386 per annum for a solar heating and cooling installation employing 20m2 of sorption integrated collectors.

Low cost BIST techniques for linear and non-linear analog circuits

With the ever increasing demands for high complexity consumer electronic products, market pressures demand faster product development and lower cost. SoCbased design can provide the required design flexibility and speed by allowing the use of IP cores. However, testing costs in the SoC environment can reach a substantial percent of the total production cost. Analog testing costs may dominate the total test cost, as testing of analog circuits usually require functional verification of the circuit and special testing procedures. For RF analog circuits commonly used in wireless applications, testing is further complicated because of the high frequencies involved. In summary, reducing analog test cost is of major importance in the electronic industry today. BIST techniques for analog circuits, though potentially able to solve the analog test cost problem, have some limitations. Some techniques are circuit dependent, requiring reconfiguration of the circuit being tested, and are generally not usable in RF circuits. In the SoC environment, as processing and memory resources are available, they could be used in the test. However, the overhead for adding additional AD and DA converters may be too costly for most systems, and analog routing of signals may not be feasible and may introduce signal distortion. In this work a simple and low cost digitizer is used instead of an ADC in order to enable analog testing strategies to be implemented in a SoC environment. Thanks to the low analog area overhead of the converter, multiple analog test points can be observed and specific analog test strategies can be enabled. As the digitizer is always connected to the analog test point, it is not necessary to include muxes and switches that would degrade the signal path. For RF analog circuits, this is specially useful, as the circuit impedance is fixed and the influence of the digitizer can be accounted for in the design phase. Thanks to the simplicity of the converter, it is able to reach higher frequencies, and enables the implementation of low cost RF test strategies. The digitizer has been applied successfully in the testing of both low frequency and RF analog circuits. Also, as testing is based on frequency-domain characteristics, nonlinear characteristics like intermodulation products can also be evaluated. Specifically, practical results were obtained for prototyped base band filters and a 100MHz mixer. The application of the converter for noise figure evaluation was also addressed, and experimental results for low frequency amplifiers using conventional opamps were obtained. The proposed method is able to enhance the testability of current mixed-signal designs, being suitable for the SoC environment used in many industrial products nowadays.

The influence of emotional contagion on products evaluation

Emotional Contagion is the mechanism that includes mimicking and the automatic synchronization of facial expressions, vocalizations, postures, and movements with another person and, consequently, convergence of emotions between the sender and receiver. Researches of this mechanism conducted usually in the fields of Psychology and Marketing tends to investigate face-to-face interactions. However, the question remains to what extent, if any, emotional contagion may occur with facial expressions in photos, since many purchase situations are brought on by catalogues or websites. This thesis has the goal to verify this gap and, in addition, verify whether emotional contagion is more common in females than in males as stated in previous studies. Emotions have been studied because it is intuitively apparent that emotions affect the dynamics of the interaction between a salesperson and customers (Verbeke, 1997); in other words, emotions may significantly affect consumer behavior. Therefore, this thesis also verified whether the facial expressions that transmit emotions could be associated to product evaluations. To investigate these questions, an experiment was done with 171 participants, which were exposed to either smiling (positive emotion) or neutral advertising. The differences between the individual advertisements were limited to the facial expressions of figures in the advertisements (either smiling or neutral/without smiling). One specialist and two students analyzed videotaped records of the participants’ responses, and found that participants who saw the positive stimulus mimicked the picture (smiling back) confirming the Emotional Contagion in Photos (the first hypothesis). The second hypothesis was to analyze if there is difference based in gender. The results demonstrated that there is not a significant difference between genders; female and male equally suffer Emotional Contagion. The third hypothesis was related to whether the positive emotions vs. neutral emotions acquired from the positive facial expression in the photo are associated to a positive evaluation of the product also displayed in the photo. Evidences show that the ad with a positive expression could change more positively the attitude, the sympathy, the reliability, and the intention of purpose of the participant compared to those who were exposed to the neutral condition. Therefore, the analysis concludes that the facial expressions displayed in photos produce emotional contagion and may interfere on the evaluation product. A discussion of the theoretical and practical implications and limitations for these findings are presented.

Development and evaluation of a range anxiety-reducing business model for connected full electric vehicles

This thesis develops and evaluates a business model for connected full electric vehicles (FEV) for the European market. Despite a promoting political environment, various barriers have thus far prevented the FEV from becoming a mass-market vehicle. Besides cost, the most noteworthy of these barriers is represented by range anxiety, a product of FEVs’ limited range, lacking availability of charging infrastructure, and long recharging times. Connected FEVs, which maintain a constant connection to the surrounding infrastructure, appear to be a promising element to overcome drivers’ range anxiety. Yet their successful application requires a well functioning FEV ecosystem which can only be created through the collaboration of various stakeholders such as original equipment manufacturers (OEM), first tier suppliers (FTS), charging infrastructure and service providers (CISP), utilities, communication enablers, and governments. This thesis explores and evaluates how a business model, jointly created by these stakeholders, could look like, i.e. how stakeholders could collaborate in the design of products, services, infrastructure, and advanced mobility management, to meet drivers with a sensible value proposition that is at least equivalent to that of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. It suggests that this value proposition will be an end-2-end package provided by CISPs or OEMs that comprises mobility packages (incl. pay per mile plans, battery leasing, charging and battery swapping (BS) infrastructure) and FEVs equipped with an on-board unit (OBU) combined with additional services targeted at range anxiety reduction. From a theoretical point of view the thesis answers the question which business model framework is suitable for the development of a holistic, i.e. all stakeholder-comprising business model for connected FEVs and defines such a business model. In doing so the thesis provides the first comprehensive business model related research findings on connected FEVs, as prior works focused on the much less complex scenario featuring only “offline” FEVs.

Desenvolvimento e avaliação de padrão de torque para calibração de torquímetros em três faixas de medição

The continuous development of instruments and equipment used as tools or torque measurement in the industry is demanding more accurate techniques in the use of this kind instrumentation, including development of metrological characteristics in torque measurement. The same happens with the needs in calibration services. There is a diversity of methods of hand torque tools in the market with different measuring range but without complaining with technical standards in terms of requirements of quality and reliability. However, actually there is no choice of a torque measuring standard that fulfils, with low cost, the needs for the calibration of hand torque tools in a large number of ranges. The objective of this thesis is to show the development and evaluation of a torque measuring standard device with a conception to allow the calibration of hand torque tools with three levels of torque with an single instrument, promoting reduction of costs and time in the calibration, also offering reliability for the evaluation of torque measuring instrument. To attend the demand in the calibration of hand torque tools it is necessary that the calibration laboratories have a big collection of torque measuring standards, to fulfills the needs of the costumer, what is very costly. The development of this type of torque measuring standard revealed a viable technique and economically making possible the calibration of hand torque tools in different nominal ranges through a single measurement system versatile, efficient and of easy operation

Evaluation of the Cartographic Communication Performance of a Route Guidance and Navigation System

This study evaluates the influence of different cartographic representations of in-car navigation systems on visual demand, subjective preference, and navigational error. It takes into account the type and complexity of the representation, maneuvering complexity, road layout, and driver gender. A group of 28 drivers (14 male and 14 female) participated in this experiment which was performed in a low-cost driving simulator. The tests were performed on a limited number of instances for each type of representation, and their purpose was to carry out a preliminary assessment and provide future avenues for further studies. Data collected for the visual demand study were analyzed using non-parametric statistical analyses. Results confirmed previous research that showed that different levels of design complexity significantly influence visual demand. Non-grid-like road networks, for example, influence significantly visual demand and navigational error. An analysis of simple maneuvers on a grid-like road network showed that static and blinking arrows did not present significant differences. From the set of representations analyzed to assess visual demand, both arrows were equally efficient. From a gender perspective, women seem to took at the display more than men, but this factor was not significant. With respect to subjective preferences, drivers prefer representations with mimetic landmarks when they perform straight-ahead tasks. For maneuvering tasks, landmarks in a perspective model created higher visual demands.

Comparative study of analytical methods by direct and first-derivative UV spectrophotometry for evaluation of losartan potassium in capsules

O losartano potássico é um agente anti-hipertensivo não peptídico, que exerce sua ação por bloqueio específico dos receptores da angiotensina II. Este trabalho propôs a validação e aplicação de métodos analíticos orientados ao controle de qualidade de losartano potássico 50 mg na forma farmacêutica cápsula, utilizando a espectrofotometria direta e derivada de primeira ordem na região do UV. Baseado nas características espectrofotométricas de losartano potássico, um sinal a 205 nm do espectro de ordem zero e um sinal a 234 nm do espectro de primeira derivada foram adequados para a quantificação. Os resultados foram usados para comparar essas duas técnicas instrumentais. O coeficiente de correlação entre as respostas e as concentrações de losartano potássico na faixa de 3,0-7,0 mg L-1 e 6,0-14,0 mg L-1 para espectrofotometria direta e derivada de primeira ordem em solução aquosa, respectivamente, foi de (r) of 0,9999 para ambos os casos. Os métodos foram aplicados para quantificação de losartano potássico em cápsulas obtidas de farmácias de manipulação locais e demonstraram ser eficientes, fáceis de aplicar e de baixo custo. Além disso, não necessitam de reagentes poluentes e requerem equipamentos economicamente viáveis.