Foresight exercises as a tool for decision-making: the example of two case studies in health

Based on the report for the unit “Foresight Methods Analysis” of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment at the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, under the supervision of Prof. Dr. António B. Moniz

Estudo experimental do efeito da geometria da ancoragem no comportamento ao arrancamento de varão em betão

O presente estudo experimental pretende avaliar o comportamento da aderência entre varões em aço nervurado e o betão, a influência da geometria, do estado de fendilhação do betão e da presença de um varão transversal na zona de ancoragem, no comportamento desta. O bom desempenho das estruturas de betão armado depende da sua ligação e aderência entre os diferentes materiais utilizados na sua conceção, aço e betão. Foi com esse pressuposto que a presente dissertação avançou, de forma a serem estudadas as diversas geometrias e condições a que podem estar sujeitas as ancoragens. Para isso, foram elaborados e ensaiados dezasseis modelo de ancoragem: seis modelos em betão fendilhado e dez modelos em betão não fendilhado. Do estudo experimental desenvolvido, os resultados obtidos em betão não fendilhado dos ensaios de arrancamento “Pull-Out” são comparados com as recomendações NP EN 1992-1-1 [27], fib Model Code 2010 [14] e o Structural Concrete Building Code ACI 318-11 [4]. No presente estudo experimental também foi analisado o efeito da fendilhação do betão, permitindo assim compreender melhor o funcionamento e a resistência de uma ancoragem sujeita a essa situação. O efeito da presença de um varão transversal aplicado na zona do mandril foi também estudado.

Flood resilient housing recovery models: a theoretical case study in Maldives

Natural disasters are events that cause general and widespread destruction of the built environment and are becoming increasingly recurrent. They are a product of vulnerability and community exposure to natural hazards, generating a multitude of social, economic and cultural issues of which the loss of housing and the subsequent need for shelter is one of its major consequences. Nowadays, numerous factors contribute to increased vulnerability and exposure to natural disasters such as climate change with its impacts felt across the globe and which is currently seen as a worldwide threat to the built environment. The abandonment of disaster-affected areas can also push populations to regions where natural hazards are felt more severely. Although several actors in the post-disaster scenario provide for shelter needs and recovery programs, housing is often inadequate and unable to resist the effects of future natural hazards. Resilient housing is commonly not addressed due to the urgency in sheltering affected populations. However, by neglecting risks of exposure in construction, houses become vulnerable and are likely to be damaged or destroyed in future natural hazard events. That being said it becomes fundamental to include resilience criteria, when it comes to housing, which in turn will allow new houses to better withstand the passage of time and natural disasters, in the safest way possible. This master thesis is intended to provide guiding principles to take towards housing recovery after natural disasters, particularly in the form of flood resilient construction, considering floods are responsible for the largest number of natural disasters. To this purpose, the main structures that house affected populations were identified and analyzed in depth. After assessing the risks and damages that flood events can cause in housing, a methodology was proposed for flood resilient housing models, in which there were identified key criteria that housing should meet. The same methodology is based in the US Federal Emergency Management Agency requirements and recommendations in accordance to specific flood zones. Finally, a case study in Maldives – one of the most vulnerable countries to sea level rise resulting from climate change – has been analyzed in light of housing recovery in a post-disaster induced scenario. This analysis was carried out by using the proposed methodology with the intent of assessing the resilience of the newly built housing to floods in the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami.

The firm delocalization decision

In the current paper, the determinants of firm international relocation decision in twenty-six European countries during the period 2004-2014 are analyzed. We demonstrate, at light of three different but complementary theories that neoclassical, behavioural and institutional „push‟ factors have an impact in a firm decision-making process. Findings support that firm size, access to a global network, foreign capital, and negative internal growth in the workforce induce firm relocation. On the other hand, the degree of sunk assets has a negative effect on the probability of relocation. Delocalization decisions are also sector-dependent with low-tech manufacturing firms paying high salaries relocating abroad with a greater likelihood.

Aderência de varões nervurados sujeitos a esforços de compressão

O presente trabalho surge na continuação do trabalho realizado pela autora Ana Sofia Louro na sua dissertação de Doutoramento. Após análise efetuada ao seu trabalho e pesquisa bibliográfica, é notória a necessidade de melhor se compreender os efeitos resultantes de esforços de compressão na aderência, para que se possa comparar com o verificado nas situações de tração, levando a uma melhor compreensão das diferentes variáveis e do seu papel nas diferentes situações. Para tal estudo, utilizaram-se os provetes remanescentes do trabalho da autora, e foi traçado um plano de ensaios que permitisse compreender os fenómenos da ligação. Os provetes visam simular uma ligação viga-pilar, na medida em que é um dos locais onde ocorrem maiores solicitações na ligação entre os dois materiais. Os provetes foram executados com betões C30/37 e C50/60, e os varões com aço do tipo A500NR SD com 16 e 25 mm de diâmetro, de modo a obter resultados representativos das construções em Portugal. Durante os ensaios ocorreram problemas de encurvadura nos provetes com betões de maior resistência. Ainda assim, quando analisados os resultados de compressão e comparados com os ensaios de tração, foi possível verificar e concluir que a resistência do betão continua a assumir o papel de maior importância na ligação uma vez que a variação da resistência do betão conduziu a diferenças mais relevantes nas restantes variáveis.

Períodos de Fidelização

This dissertation aims to study the loyalty clauses present in most of the long lasting service contracts. We introduce its main features and the consequences that arise from breaching of contract. We analyze the presence of loyalty periods in the Portuguese legislation. In this sense, we discuss Decree-Law 446/85, Law 24/96, Decree-Law 57/2008 and Decree-Law 56/2010. The loyalty period is the minimum period of time for which the contract should be maintained. In most cases, when this obligation is not fulfilled a penalty clause is set, intending to push the weaker party to comply with the contract or sanction it when the party fails to do so. We conclude that the contractual relationship where there is a loyalty period is usually an unbalanced relationship because it only protects the interest of one party. The penalty clause should not be admitted between parties with unequal bargaining powers. The contractual imbalance is not limited to consumer contracts.

Product extension services deployment platform

Due to the progresses made in the branch of embedded technologies, manufacturers are becoming able to pack their shop floor level manufacturing resources with even more complex functionalities. This technological progression is radically changing the way production systems are designed and deployed, as well as, monitored and controlled. The dissemination of smart devices inside production processes confers new visibility on the production system while enabling for a more efficient and effective management of the operations. By turning the current manufacturing resources functionalities into services based on a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA), in order to expose them as a service to the user, the binomial manufacturing resource/service will push the entire manufacturing enterprise visibility to another level while enabling the global optimization of the operations and processes of a production system while, at the same time, supporting its accommodation to the operational spike easily and with reduced impact on production. The present work implements a Cloud Manufacturing infrastructure for achieving the resource/service value-added i.e. to facilitate the creation of services that are the composition of currently available atomic services. In this context, manufacturing resource virtualization (i.e. formalization of resources capabilities into services accessible inside and outside the enterprise) and semantic representation/description are the pillars for achieving resource service composition. In conclusion, the present work aims to act on the manufacturing resource layer where physical resources and shop floor capabilities are going to be provided to the user as a SaaS (Software as a Service) and/or IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service).

Experimental determination of bone cortex holding power of orthopedic screw

Cylindrical specimens of bone measuring 15 mm in diameter were obtained from the lateral cortical layer of 10 pairs of femurs and tibias. A central hole 3.2 mm in diameter was drilled in each specimen. The hole was tapped, and a 4.5 mm cortical bone screw was inserted from the outer surface. The montage was submitted to push-out testing up to a complete strip of the bone threads. The cortical thickness and rupture load were measured, and the shear stress was calculated. The results were grouped according to the bone segment from which the specimen was obtained. The results showed that bone cortex screw holding power is dependent on the bone site. Additionally, the diaphyseal cortical bone tissue is both quantitatively and qualitatively more resistant to screw extraction than the metaphyseal tissue.

Estudo da ligação entre camadas betuminosas de pavimentos flexíveis

A ligação entre camadas constitui um dos aspetos fundamentais no comportamento de um pavimento rodoviário. O modo de funcionamento de um pavimento flexível está dependente das características dos materiais de cada camada, mas também das respetivas condições de fronteira, ou seja, das características das respetivas interfaces. Uma correta ligação entre camadas permite ao pavimento funcionar como um todo, esta ligação é normalmente alcançada com a aplicação de uma fina camada de emulsão betuminosa. Com a entrada em serviço de um pavimento, devido às tensões geradas pela passagem dos veículos, este começa a sofrer degradações à superfície, até que finda a sua vida útil procede-se à sua reabilitação. Na reabilitação de pavimentos é necessário um especial cuidado na interface do pavimento existente com novo pavimento aplicado, para que as fissuras existentes não se propaguem para as novas camadas reabilitadas. A presente dissertação de mestrado, estuda a ligação entre camadas de um pavimento cuja técnica de reforço de reabilitação é a introdução de uma grelha que limita a propagação de fendas. A ligação entre camadas é avaliada através de ensaios de corte pelo método de Leutner modificado e de tração pelo método Pull-off, para duas obras distintas, com constituições de pavimentos e com taxas de aplicação de regas de colagem diferentes, com dois tipos de grelhas de reforço e para amostras recolhidas em obra e fabricadas em laboratório. Os resultados são analisados e comparados entre si, de onde se conclui existir uma melhor ligação entre camadas para interfaces que não possuem grelhas de reforço em detrimento das que possuem, contudo a diminuição da resistência da ligação aquando desta introdução não é demasiado expressiva, o que valida esta técnica de reforço como não prejudicial à integridade da ligação entre camadas. Uma maior dosagem de rega de colagem contribui para uma maior ligação entre camadas, embora careça de um estudo mais aprofundado para definir intervalos de aplicação óptimos para uma dada constituição de pavimento. Este estudo valida para os pavimentos nacionais, os valores recomendados na norma Suíça e na norma Alemã, de resistência ao corte mínima para interfaces de ligação entre camadas de base de 12 kN e para interfaces de ligação entre camadas de desgaste de 15 kN. No entanto, considera-se que estes valores poderão ser mais exigentes, deixando os valores obtidos margem para recomendar valores mais elevados, requerendo portanto mais estudos para confirmar estes limites.

Análise experimental e numérica da conexão aço-betão leve realizada com pernos de cabeça

O presente trabalho procura abordar a modelação numérica da conexão entre o perfil metálico e a laje de betão, quando se utilizam conectores do tipo perno e betão leve. Utilizam se elementos finitos de volume para definir todos os elementos presentes na ligação, recorrendo ao software ATENA 3D. A partir dos modelos desenvolvidos procura-se avaliar quais os parâmetros relevantes para o comportamento da conexão aço betão leve. Recorre-se a resultados de ensaios de tipo push out anteriormente realizados na Universidade do Minho para validar os modelos numéricos desenvolvidos.

In-plane stiffness of timber floors strengthened with CLT

Five full-scale timber floors were tested in order to analyse the in-plane behaviour of these structural systems. The main objective was an assessment of the effectiveness of in-plane strengthening using cross-laminated timber (CLT). To this end, one unstrengthened specimen (original), one specimen strengthened with a second layer of floorboards, two specimens strengthened with three CLT panels, and one specimen strengthened with two CLT panels, were tested. A numerical analysis was then performed in order to analyse the composite behaviour of the timber floors in more detail. Due to its importance as regards composite behaviour, the first phase of the experimental programme was composed of push-out tests on specimens representing the shear connection between the timber beams and the CLT panels. This paper describes the tests performed and the numerical modelling applied to evaluate the composite behaviour of the strengthened timber floors. The use of CLT panels is revealed to be an effective way to increase the in-plane stiffness of timber floors, through which the behaviour of the composite structure can be significantly changed, depending on the connection applied, or modified as required.

Experimental analysis of new interfaces for connections by adhesion, interlocking and friction.

The authors thank the federal agency CAPES and the Foundation for Research Support of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil (FAPESP) for providing a PhD scholarship, and the University of Minho, in Portugal, for the international collaboration.

Avaliação de desempenho de conetores numa nova técnica para reabilitação de estruturas de alvenaria e betão

Neste trabalho é dada continuidade à investigação previamente realizada no âmbito de uma nova técnica de reabilitação de estruturas de alvenaria baseada na projeção de finas camadas de argamassa reforçada com fibras (FRCC). Para tal, foi desenvolvido um programa experimental composto pela realização de ensaios de push-out em provetes reforçados segundo esta técnica, com o intuito de avaliar a influência da utilização de diferentes tipos de conetores na capacidade resistente e no comportamento da interface entre o material de reforço e o material reforçado.

Experimental analysis of the cyclic response of traditional timber joints and their influence on the seismic capacity of timber frame structures

Timber connections represent the crucial part of a timber structure and a great variability exists in terms of types of connections and mechanisms. Taking as case study the widespread traditional timber frame structures, in particular the Portuguese Pombalino buildings, one of the most common timber connection is the half-lap joint. Connections play a major role in the overall behaviour of a structure, particularly when assessing their seismic response, since damage is concentrated at the connections. For this reason, an experimental campaign was designed and distinct types of tests were carried out on traditional half-lap joints to assess their in-plane response. In particular, pull-out and in-plane cyclic tests were carried out on real scale unreinforced connections. Subsequently, the connections were retrofitted, using strengthening techniques such as self-tapping screws, steel plates and GFRP sheets. The tests chosen were meant to capture the hysteretic behaviour and dissipative capacity of the connections and characterise their response and, therefore, their influence on the seismic response of timber frame walls, particularly concerning their uplifting and rotation capacity, that could lead to rocking in the walls. In this paper, the results of the experimental campaign are presented in terms of hysteretic curves, dissipated energy and equivalent viscous damping ratio. Moreover, recommendations are provided on the most appropriate retrofitting solutions.

Moisture-induced degradation of interfacial bond in FRP-strengthened masonry

Externally bonded strengthening of masonry structures using Fiber Reinforced Polymers (FRPs) has been accepted as a promising technique. Although the effectiveness of FRPs in improving the performance of masonry components has been extensively investigated, their long-term performance and durability remain poorly addressed. This paper, tackling one of the aspects related to durability of these systems, presents an experimental investigation on the effect of long-term (one year) water immersion on the performance of GFRP-strengthened bricks. The tests include materials' mechanical tests, as well as pull-off and single-lap shear bond tests, to investigate the changes in material properties and bond behavior with immersion time, respectively. The effect of mechanical surface treatment on the durability of the strengthened system as well as the reversibility of the degradation upon partial drying are also investigated. The experimental results are presented and critically discussed.