The impact of nonlinear exposure risk relationships on seasonal time series data: modelling danish neonatal birth anthropometric data

Background Birth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. Previous analyses of birth weight by latitude effects identified seemingly contradictory results, showing both 6 and 12 monthly periodicities in weight. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to explore seasonal patterns in a large, Danish Medical Birth Register, and (b) to explore models based on seasonal exposures and a non-linear exposure-risk relationship. Methods Birth weight and birth lengths on over 1.5 million Danish singleton, live births were examined for seasonality. We modelled seasonal patterns based on linear, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships. We then added an extra layer of complexity by modelling weighted population-based exposure patterns. Results The Danish data showed clear seasonal fluctuations for both birth weight and birth length. A bimodal model best fits the data, however the amplitude of the 6 and 12 month peaks changed over time. In the modelling exercises, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships generate time series with both 6 and 12 month periodicities. Changing the weightings of the population exposure risks result in unexpected properties. A J-shaped exposure-risk relationship with a diminishing population exposure over time fitted the observed seasonal pattern in the Danish birth weight data. Conclusion In keeping with many other studies, Danish birth anthropometric data show complex and shifting seasonal patterns. We speculate that annual periodicities with non-linear exposure-risk models may underlie these findings. Understanding the nature of seasonal fluctuations can help generate candidate exposures.

An approach to statistical lip modelling for speaker identification via chromatic feature extraction

This paper presents a novel technique for the tracking of moving lips for the purpose of speaker identification. In our system, a model of the lip contour is formed directly from chromatic information in the lip region. Iterative refinement of contour point estimates is not required. Colour features are extracted from the lips via concatenated profiles taken around the lip contour. Reduction of order in lip features is obtained via principal component analysis (PCA) followed by linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Statistical speaker models are built from the lip features based on the Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Identification experiments performed on the M2VTS¹ database, show encouraging results

Stochastic modelling of T cell homeostasis for two competing clonotypes via the master equation

Stochastic models for competing clonotypes of T cells by multivariate, continuous-time, discrete state, Markov processes have been proposed in the literature by Stirk, Molina-París and van den Berg (2008). A stochastic modelling framework is important because of rare events associated with small populations of some critical cell types. Usually, computational methods for these problems employ a trajectory-based approach, based on Monte Carlo simulation. This is partly because the complementary, probability density function (PDF) approaches can be expensive but here we describe some efficient PDF approaches by directly solving the governing equations, known as the Master Equation. These computations are made very efficient through an approximation of the state space by the Finite State Projection and through the use of Krylov subspace methods when evolving the matrix exponential. These computational methods allow us to explore the evolution of the PDFs associated with these stochastic models, and bimodal distributions arise in some parameter regimes. Time-dependent propensities naturally arise in immunological processes due to, for example, age-dependent effects. Incorporating time-dependent propensities into the framework of the Master Equation significantly complicates the corresponding computational methods but here we describe an efficient approach via Magnus formulas. Although this contribution focuses on the example of competing clonotypes, the general principles are relevant to multivariate Markov processes and provide fundamental techniques for computational immunology.

Computational approaches for modelling intrinsic noise and delays in genetic regulatory networks

This chapter focuses on the interactions and roles between delays and intrinsic noise effects within cellular pathways and regulatory networks. We address these aspects by focusing on genetic regulatory networks that share a common network motif, namely the negative feedback loop, leading to oscillatory gene expression and protein levels. In this context, we discuss computational simulation algorithms for addressing the interplay of delays and noise within the signaling pathways based on biological data. We address implementational issues associated with efficiency and robustness. In a molecular biology setting we present two case studies of temporal models for the Hes1 gene (Monk, 2003; Hirata et al., 2002), known to act as a molecular clock, and the Her1/Her7 regulatory system controlling the periodic somite segmentation in vertebrate embryos (Giudicelli and Lewis, 2004; Horikawa et al., 2006).

Stochastic simulation for spatial modelling of dynamic process in a living cell

One of the fundamental motivations underlying computational cell biology is to gain insight into the complicated dynamical processes taking place, for example, on the plasma membrane or in the cytosol of a cell. These processes are often so complicated that purely temporal mathematical models cannot adequately capture the complex chemical kinetics and transport processes of, for example, proteins or vesicles. On the other hand, spatial models such as Monte Carlo approaches can have very large computational overheads. This chapter gives an overview of the state of the art in the development of stochastic simulation techniques for the spatial modelling of dynamic processes in a living cell.

Diversity in product familiarity across younger and older adults

This paper reports on the findings of a completed experiment examining levels of familiarity in younger and older adults. Research has shown that older adults use products less intuitively than younger adults, and that familiarity is an essential element of intuitive interaction. This finding influenced the decision to focus on familiarity and to investigate why older adults use products less intuitively than younger adults. By identifying and understanding the differences in familiarity, it is hypothesised that designers will be able to design more usable products for older adults. An empirical study was conducted, investigating the differences in familiarity between younger and older adults with contemporary products. Younger adults demonstrate significantly higher levels of familiarity compared to older adults, and the three groups of older adults demonstrated no significant differences between them. The implications of this finding is discussed.

Modelling the activation of words in human memory : the spreading activation, spooky-activation-at-a-distance and the entanglement models compared

Modelling how a word is activated in human memory is an important requirement for determining the probability of recall of a word in an extra-list cueing experiment. The spreading activation, spooky-action-at-a-distance and entanglement models have all been used to model the activation of a word. Recently a hypothesis was put forward that the mean activation levels of the respective models are as follows: Spreading � Entanglment � Spooking-action-at-a-distance This article investigates this hypothesis by means of a substantial empirical analysis of each model using the University of South Florida word association, rhyme and word norms.

Modelling travelling waves in spatially constrained environment solutions

In this study, we consider how Fractional Differential Equations (FDEs) can be used to study the travelling wave phenomena in parabolic equations. As our method is conducted under intracellular environments that are highly crowded, it was discovered that there is a simple relationship between the travelling wave speed and obstacle density.

Activity modelling in crowded environments : a soft decision approach

Probabilistic topic models have recently been used for activity analysis in video processing, due to their strong capacity to model both local activities and interactions in crowded scenes. In those applications, a video sequence is divided into a collection of uniform non-overlaping video clips, and the high dimensional continuous inputs are quantized into a bag of discrete visual words. The hard division of video clips, and hard assignment of visual words leads to problems when an activity is split over multiple clips, or the most appropriate visual word for quantization is unclear. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm, which makes use of a soft histogram technique to compensate for the loss of information in the quantization process; and a soft cut technique in the temporal domain to overcome problems caused by separating an activity into two video clips. In the detection process, we also apply a soft decision strategy to detect unusual events.We show that the proposed soft decision approach outperforms its hard decision counterpart in both local and global activity modelling.