Prediction Of Hydrological Models’ Uncertainty By A Committee Of Machine Learning-Models

This study presents an approach to combine uncertainties of the hydrological model outputs predicted from a number of machine learning models. The machine learning based uncertainty prediction approach is very useful for estimation of hydrological models' uncertainty in particular hydro-metrological situation in real-time application [1]. In this approach the hydrological model realizations from Monte Carlo simulations are used to build different machine learning uncertainty models to predict uncertainty (quantiles of pdf) of the a deterministic output from hydrological model . Uncertainty models are trained using antecedent precipitation and streamflows as inputs. The trained models are then employed to predict the model output uncertainty which is specific for the new input data. We used three machine learning models namely artificial neural networks, model tree, locally weighted regression to predict output uncertainties. These three models produce similar verification results, which can be improved by merging their outputs dynamically. We propose an approach to form a committee of the three models to combine their outputs. The approach is applied to estimate uncertainty of streamflows simulation from a conceptual hydrological model in the Brue catchment in UK and the Bagmati catchment in Nepal. The verification results show that merged output is better than an individual model output. [1] D. L. Shrestha, N. Kayastha, and D. P. Solomatine, and R. Price. Encapsulation of parameteric uncertainty statistics by various predictive machine learning models: MLUE method, Journal of Hydroinformatic, in press, 2013.

Parameterization Of Turbulence Models Using 3DVAR Data Assimilation

In this research the 3DVAR data assimilation scheme is implemented in the numerical model DIVAST in order to optimize the performance of the numerical model by selecting an appropriate turbulence scheme and tuning its parameters. Two turbulence closure schemes: the Prandtl mixing length model and the two-equation k-ε model were incorporated into DIVAST and examined with respect to their universality of application, complexity of solutions, computational efficiency and numerical stability. A square harbour with one symmetrical entrance subject to tide-induced flows was selected to investigate the structure of turbulent flows. The experimental part of the research was conducted in a tidal basin. A significant advantage of such laboratory experiment is a fully controlled environment where domain setup and forcing are user-defined. The research shows that the Prandtl mixing length model and the two-equation k-ε model, with default parameterization predefined according to literature recommendations, overestimate eddy viscosity which in turn results in a significant underestimation of velocity magnitudes in the harbour. The data assimilation of the model-predicted velocity and laboratory observations significantly improves model predictions for both turbulence models by adjusting modelled flows in the harbour to match de-errored observations. 3DVAR allows also to identify and quantify shortcomings of the numerical model. Such comprehensive analysis gives an optimal solution based on which numerical model parameters can be estimated. The process of turbulence model optimization by reparameterization and tuning towards optimal state led to new constants that may be potentially applied to complex turbulent flows, such as rapidly developing flows or recirculating flows.

Analysis Of Semi-Distributed And Global Hydrological Models In The Central Tropical Basins Of The Gulf Of Mexico To The Effects Of Extreme Hydrometeorological Phenomena

In the last years extreme hydrometeorological phenomena have increased in number and intensity affecting the inhabitants of various regions, an example of these effects are the central basins of the Gulf of Mexico (CBGM) that they have been affected by 55.2% with floods and especially the state of Veracruz (1999-2013), leaving economic, social and environmental losses. Mexico currently lacks sufficient hydrological studies for the measurement of volumes in rivers, since is convenient to create a hydrological model (HM) suited to the quality and quantity of the geographic and climatic information that is reliable and affordable. Therefore this research compares the semi-distributed hydrological model (SHM) and the global hydrological model (GHM), with respect to the volumes of runoff and achieve to predict flood areas, furthermore, were analyzed extreme hydrometeorological phenomena in the CBGM, by modeling the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) which is a SHM and the Modèle Hydrologique Simplifié à I'Extrême (MOHYSE) which is a GHM, to evaluate the results and compare which model is suitable for tropical conditions to propose public policies for integrated basins management and flood prevention. Thus it was determined the temporal and spatial framework of the analyzed basins according to hurricanes and floods. It were developed the SHM and GHM models, which were calibrated, validated and compared the results to identify the sensitivity to the real model. It was concluded that both models conform to tropical conditions of the CBGM, having MOHYSE further approximation to the real model. Worth mentioning that in Mexico there is not enough information, besides there are no records of MOHYSE use in Mexico, so it can be a useful tool for determining runoff volumes. Finally, with the SHM and the GHM were generated climate change scenarios to develop risk studies creating a risk map for urban planning, agro-hydrological and territorial organization.

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Doubly charged Higgs through photon-photon collisions in 3-3-1 models

We study the production and signatures of doubly charged Higgs bosons (DCHBs) in the process gamma gamma <-> H(--)H(++) at the e(-)e(+) International Linear Collider and CERN Linear Collider, where the intermediate photons are given by the Weizsacker-Willians and laser backscattering distributions.

Two field BPS solutions for generalized Lorentz breaking models

In this work we present nonlinear models in two-dimensional space-time of two interacting scalar fields in the Lorentz and CPT violating scenarios. We discuss the soliton solutions for these models as well as the question of stability for them. This is done by generalizing a model recently published by Barreto and collaborators and also by getting new solutions for the model introduced by them.

Probing neutrino oscillations in supersymmetric models at the Large Hadron Collider

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Critical behavior at edge singularities in one-dimensional spin models

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Five-dimensional f(R) braneworld models

After incorporating f(R) gravity into the general braneworld sum rules scope, it is shown that some particular class of warped five-dimensional nonlinear braneworld models, which may be interesting for the hierarchy problem solution, still require a negative tension brane. For other classes of warp factors (suitable and not suitable for approaching the hierarchy problem) any negative brane tension in the compactification scheme is not necessary. In this vein, it is argued that, in the bulk f(R) gravity context, some types of warp factors may be useful for approaching the hierarchy problem and for evading the necessity of a negative brane tension in the compactification scheme.

Analysis of the effects of damping in the models validation

The search for better performance in the structural systems has been taken to more refined models, involving the analysis of a growing number of details, which should be correctly formulated aiming at defining a representative model of the real system. Representative models demand a great detailing of the project and search for new techniques of evaluation and analysis. Model updating is one of this technologies, it can be used to improve the predictive capabilities of computer-based models. This paper presents a FRF-based finite element model updating procedure whose the updating variables are physical parameters of the model. It includes the damping effects in the updating procedure assuming proportional and non proportional damping mechanism. The updating parameters are defined at an element level or macro regions of the model. So, the parameters are adjusted locally, facilitating the physical interpretation of the adjusting of the model. Different tests for simulated and experimental data are discussed aiming at evaluating the characteristics and potentialities of the methodology.

Effects of two chronic stress models on ligature-induced periodontitis in Wistar rats

Objectives: The present study aims at comparing the effects of physical and variable chronic stress on ligature-induced periodontitis in rats.Design: Forty-eight adult Wistar rats were randomly assigned to four groups (n = 12): physical stress, variable stress, positive control and negative control. The models of physical stress were immobilization and immobilization associated with exposure to cold. The models of variable stress were exposure to intermittent light, 24 h isolation, oral cavity examination, crowded environment, smell of blood and noise. After 10 days of physical or variable stress animals underwent experimental induction of periodontal disease in one oral side. Positive control also underwent experimental induction of periodontal disease on the 10th day. Negative control did not receive any type of intervention. At the end of the experimental period (60 days), all animals were euthanized. After routine laboratory processing, images of the histological sections were digitised and submitted to histometric measurement using two parameters: histologic attachment loss and bone loss.Results: Histological attachment loss and bone loss were greater (p < 0.05) in the physical stress group than in the other groups (variable stress, positive and negative control groups). on the non-periodontitis side, these same histological parameters did not significantly differ amongst groups.Conclusions: Physical stress negatively modulated the response pattern to experimentally induced periodontitis in rats. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative comparisons and models of time-averaging in bivalve and brachiopod shell accumulations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Naturally light invisible axion in models with large local discrete symmetries

We show that by introducing appropriate local Z(N)(Ngreater than or equal to13) symmetries in electroweak models it is possible to implement an automatic Peccei-Quinn symmetry, at the same time keeping the axion protected against gravitational effects. Although we consider here only an extension of the standard model and a particular 3-3-1 model, the strategy can be used in any kind of electroweak model. An interesting feature of this 3-3-1 model is that if we add (i) right-handed neutrinos, (ii) the conservation of the total lepton number, and (iii) a Z(2) symmetry, the Z(13) and the chiral Peccei-Quinn U(1)P-Q symmetries are both accidental symmetries in the sense that they are not imposed on the Lagrangian but are just a consequence of the particle content of the model, its gauge invariance, renormalizability, and Lorentz invariance. In addition, this model has no domain wall problem.

Combinatorial identities and quantum state densities of supersymmetric sigma models on N-folds

There is a remarkable connection between the number of quantum states of conformal theories and the sequence of dimensions of Lie algebras. In this paper, we explore this connection by computing the asymptotic expansion of the elliptic genus and the microscopic entropy of black holes associated with (supersymmetric) sigma models. The new features of these results are the appearance of correct prefactors in the state density expansion and in the coefficient of the logarithmic correction to the entropy.

Stabilizing the invisible axion in 3-3-1 models

By introducing local Z(N) symmetries with N=11,13 in two 3-3-1 models, it is possible to implement an automatic Peccei-Quinn symmetry, keeping the axion protected against gravitational effects at the same time. Both models have a Z(2) domain wall problem and the neutrinos are strictly Dirac particles.