A note on growth and inflation

A simple exercise on growth and inflationary financing of public expenditures is presented in this note. In a parameterized overlapping generations mode1 where government expenses positivc1y affects the growth rate of human capital, steady state capital and output increase with inflation, reproducing the so called Tobin effect. For large inflation rates, however, government authorities cannot affect real variables and there are only nominal effects. It is also shown that the optimal policy implies some inflation but not growth maximization.

Economic growth with foreign saving?

Highly indebted countries, particularly the Latin American ones, presented dismal economic outcomes in the 1990s, which are the consequence of the ‘growth cum foreign savings strategy’, or the Second Washington Consensus. Coupled with liberalization of international financial flows, such strategy, which did not make part of the first consensus, led the countries, in the wave of a new world wide capital flow cycle, to high current account deficits and increase in foreign debt, ignoring the solvency constraint and the debt threshold. In practical terms it involved overvalued currencies (low exchange rates) and high interest rates; in policy terms, the attempt to control de budget deficit while the current account deficit was ignored. The paradoxical consequence was the adoption by highly indebted countries of ‘exchange rate populism’, a less obvious but more dangerous form of economic populism.

Why foreign savings fail to cause growth

Este artigo é uma formalização da crítica à estratégia do crescimento com poupança externa que um de seus autores vem sendo fazendo nos últimos anos. Apesar dos países de renda média serem pobres de capital, os déficits em conta corrente (poupança externa), financiado seja por empréstimos ou por investimentos externos diretos, não irá aumentar a taxa de acumulação de capital ou terá pouco impacto sobre ela, uma vez que os déficits de conta corrente estarão associados taxas de câmbio apreciadas, ordenados e salários aumentados artificialmente e altos níveis de consumo. Consequentemente, a taxa de substituição da poupança externa pela interna será relativamente alta, e o país será obrigado não a investir e crescer, mas a consumir. Apenas quando há grandes oportunidades de investimento, estimuladas por uma ampla diferença entre a taxa de lucro esperada e a taxa de juros de longo prazo, a propensão marginal ao consumo diminuirá suficientemente, a ponto de o lucro adicional originário do fluxo de capital estrangeiro ser usado para investimento, ao invés de para consumo. Neste caso especial, a taxa de substituição de poupança externa pela interna tenderá a ser menor e a poupança interna contribuirá positivamente para o crescimento

Environmental protection and economic growth

This paper explores the link between environmental policy and economic growth by employing an extension of the AK Growth Model. We include a state equation for renewable natural resources. We assume that the change in environmental regulations induces costs and that economic agents also derive some utility from capital stock accumulation vis-`a-vis the environment. Using the Hopf bifurcation theorem, we show that cyclical environmental policy strategies are optimal, providing theoretical support for the Environmental Kuznets Curve.

Public versus private provision of infrastructure in a neoclassical growth model

This article studies the welfare and long run allocation impacts of privatization. There are two types of capital in this model economy, one private and the other initially public (“infrastructure”). A positive externality due to infrastructure capital is assumed, so that the government could improve upon decentralized allocations internalizing the externality, but public investmentis …nanced through distortionary taxation. It is shown that privatization is welfare-improving for a large set of economies and that after privatization under-investment is optimal. When operation inefficiency in the public sectoror subsidy to infrastructure accumulation are introduced, gains from privatization are higherand positive for most reasonable combinations of parameters.

Inflationary financing of public investment and economic growth

a theoretical model is constructed in order to explain particular historical experiences in which inflation acceleration apparently helped to spur a period of economic growth. Government financed expenditures affect positively the productivity growth in this model so that the distortionary effect of inflation tax is compensated by the productive effect of public expenditures. We show that for some interval of money creation rates there is an equilibrium where money is valued and where steady state physical capital grows with inflation. It is also shown that zero inflation and growth maximization are never the optimal policies.

Growing research where economies grow: essays on strategy and international expansion of companies from emerging countries

In recent years, emerging countries have assumed an increasingly prominent position in the world economy, as growth has picked up in these countries and slowed in developed economies. Two related phenomena, among others, can be associated with this growth: emerging countries were less affected by the 2008-2009 global economic recession; and they increased their participation in foreign direct investment, both inflows and outflows. This doctoral dissertation contributes to research on firms from emerging countries through four independent papers. The first group of two papers examines firm strategy in recessionary moments and uses Brazil, one of the largest emerging countries, as setting for the investigation. Data were collected through a survey on Brazilian firms referring to the 2008-2009 global recession, and 17 hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling based on partial least squares. Paper 1 offered an integrative model linking RBV to literatures on entrepreneurship, improvisation, and flexibility to indicate the characteristics and capabilities that allow a firm to have superior performance in recessions. We found that firms that pre-recession have a propensity to recognize opportunities and improvisation capabilities for fast and creative actions have superior performance in recessions. We also found that entrepreneurial orientation and flexibility have indirect effects. Paper 2 built on business cycle literature to study which strategies - pro-cyclical or counter-cyclical – enable superior performance in recessions. We found that while most firms pro-cyclically reduce costs and investments during recessions, a counter-cyclical strategy of investing in opportunities created by changes in the environment enables superior performance. Most successful are firms with a propensity to recognize opportunities, entrepreneurial orientation to invest, and flexibility to efficiently implement these investments. The second group of two papers investigated international expansion of multinational enterprises, particularly the use of distance for their location decisions. Paper 3 proposed a conceptual framework to examine circumstances under which distance is less important for international location decisions, taking the new perspective of economic institutional distance as theoretical foundation. The framework indicated that the general preference for low-distance countries is lower: (1) when the company is state owned, rather than private owned; (2) when its internationalization motives are asset, resource, or efficiency seeking, as opposed to market seeking; and (3) when internationalization occurred after globalization and the advent of new technologies. Paper 4 compared five concurrent perspectives of distance and indicated their suitability to the study of various issues based on industry, ownership, and type, motive, and timing of internationalization. The paper also proposed that distance represents the disadvantages of host countries for international location decisions; as such, it should be used in conjunction with factors that represent host country attractiveness, or advantages as international locations. In conjunction, papers 3 and 4 provided additional, alternative explanations for the mixed empirical results of current research on distance. Moreover, the studies shed light into the discussion of differences between multinational enterprises from emerging countries versus those from advanced countries.

Banks, liquidity crises and economic growth

How do the liquidity functions of banks affect investment and growth at different stages of economic development? How do financial fragility and the costs of banking crises evolve with the level of wealth of countries? We analyze these issues using an overlapping generations growth model where agents, who experience idiosyncratic liquidity shocks, can invest in a liquid storage technology or in a partially illiquid Cobb Douglas technology. By pooling liquidity risk, banks play a growth enhancing role in reducing inefficient liquidation of long term projects, but they may face liquidity crises associated with severe output losses. We show that middle income economies may find optimal to be exposed to liquidity crises, while poor and rich economies have more incentives to develop a fully covered banking system. Therefore, middle income economies could experience banking crises in the process of their development and, as they get richer, they eventually converge to a financially safe long run steady state. Finally, the model replicates the empirical fact of higher costs of banking crises for middle income economies.

Essays on economic growth

A fundamental question in development economics is why some economies are rich and others poor. To illustrate the income per capita gap across economies consider that the average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of the richest 10 percent of economies in the year 2010 was a factor of 40-fold that of the poorest 10 percent of economies. In other words, the average person in a rich economy produces in just over 9 days what the average person in a poor economy produces in an entire year. What are the factors that can explain this difference in standard of living across the world today? With this in view, this dissertation is a conjunction of three essays on the economic growth field which we seek a possible responses to this question. The first essay investigates the existence of resource misallocation in the Brazilian manufacturing sector and measures possible distortions in it. Using a similar method of measurement to the one developed by Hsieh and Klenow (2009) and firm-level data for 1996-2011 we find evidence of misallocation in the manufacturing sector during the observed period. Moreover, our results show that misallocation has been growing since 2005, and it presents a non-smooth dynamic. Significantly, we find that the Brazilian manufacturing sector operates at about 50% of its efficient product. With this, if capital and labor were optimally reallocated between firms and sectors we would obtain an aggregate output growth of approximately 110-180% depending on the mode in which the capital share is measured. We also find that the economic crisis did not have a substantial effect on the total productivity factor or on the sector's misallocation. However, small firms in particular seem to be strongly affected in a global crisis. Furthermore, the effects described would be attenuated if we consider linkages and complementarity effects among sectors. Despite Brazil's well-known high tax burden, there is not evidence that this is the main source of resource misallocation. Moreover, there is a distinct pattern of structural change between the manufacturing sectors in industrialized countries and those in developing countries. Therefore, the second essay demonstrate that this pattern differs because there are some factors that distort the relative prices and also affect the output productivity. For this, we present a multi-sector model of economic growth, where distortions affect the relative prices and the allocation of inputs. This phenomenon imply that change of the production structure or perpetuation of the harmful structures to the growth rate of aggregate output. We also demonstrate that in an environment with majority decision, this distortion can be enhanced and depends on the initial distribution of firms. Furthermore, distortions in relative prices would lead to increases in the degree of misallocation of resources, and that imply that there are distinct patterns of structural changes between economies. Finally, the calibrated results of the framework developed here converge with the structural change observed in the firm-level data of the Brazilian manufacturing sector. Thereafter, using a cross-industry cross-country approach, the third essay investigates the existence of an optimal level of competition to enhance economic growth. With that in mind, we try to show that this optimal level is different from industrialized and under development economies due to the technology frontier distance, the terms of trade, and each economy's idiosyncratic characteristics. Therefore, the difference in competition industry-country level is a channel to explain the output for worker gap between countries. The theoretical and empirical results imply the existence of an inverted-U relationship between competition and growth: starting for an initially low level of competition, higher competition stimulates innovation and output growth; starting from a high initial level of competition, higher competition has a negative effect on innovation and output growth. Given on average industries in industrialized economies present higher competition level. With that if we control for the terms of trade and the industry-country fixed effect, if the industries of the developing economy operated under the same competition levels as of the industrialized ones, there is a potential increase of output of 0.2-1.0% per year. This effect on the output growth rate depends on the competition measurement used.

Debt and default in a growth model

This paper presents a small open economy model with capital accumulation and without commitment to repay debt. The optimal debt contract specifies debt relief following bad shocks and debt increase following good shocks and brings first order benefits if the country's borrowing constraint is binding. Countries with less capital (with higher marginal productivity of capital) have a higher debt-GDP ratio, are more likely to default on uncontingent bonds, require higher debt relief after bad shocks and pay a higher spread over treasury. Debt relief prescribed by the optimal contract following the interest rate hikes of 1980-81 is more than half of the debt forgiveness obtained by the main Latin American countries through the Brady agreements.

Ecommerce as internationalization strategy: an exploratory study based on premium fashion brazilian brands: case study of farfetch

As stated by Hoffmann and Coste-Manière (2012) “The web is a mass medium that contrast completely with the traditional codes of exclusivity associated with the luxury industry, and has long been simply rejected by the luxury industry for being an illegitimate distribution channel.” Meanwhile this market presents an incomparable pace of growth and is gradually changing the existing retailing business model and companies must be aware of this change and capable to adapt to it. The internet and cross-border sales already changed the competition throughout retailing and it will increase even more, so companies must be ready to face it. Internet has shown its great opportunity for all markets, although luxury/premium market is not yet taking the proper advantage of its potential, but the necessity to be an omnichannel business strategy is growing. This paper presents an exploratory research based on a case study of how premium fashion Brazilian brands are using Farfetch, e-commerce, as an entry market strategy and how this affects them. The research question of this study is: How is Farfetch helping on the internationalization of Brazilian premium fashion brands?, and in order to answer it was conducted an in-depth interview with the Brazilian head of business development of Farfetch, apart an extensive secondary data research. As expected the study found a list of trade-offs of using an e-commerce, luxury specialized, with a marketplace approach to the brands willing to internationalize. As stated by Altagamma and McKinsey (2015) study “[...] luxury brands have no choice but to embrace the digital era and become truly omnichannel. This will require them a radical rethinking of both their customer experience of their consumer engagement strategy.” Looking either from the Farfetch point of view, trying to understand why they offer this opportunity to the brands, or also from the brand side if this is a manageable approach. This study presents a contribution for both sides, trying to give tools to the brands on understanding the internationalization reasons and approach, as well as explaining Farfetch business model, and the advantages it can bring to them, at the same time of a general market trend analysis for Farfecth.

Customer intimacy strategy in B2B technology businesses in Colombia

The main objective of this Thesis is to analyze Customer Intimacy Strategy in B2B technology businesses in Colombia and the variables that have a direct relationship with it like perception, trust and networking. And how a Customer Intimacy Strategy can affect a company to achieve positive or negative results in an operation, in terms of business opportunities, relations and profitable and sustainable sales if properly managed or mismanaged. With a population of almost 50 million people, GDP average growth of 4.22%(considering 2013 up to 2017), a strategic geographic location in Latin America close to the middle of the region with direct access to the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, on the verge to reach a peace agreement ending its long time social and security conflict with the local guerrillas, Colombia is a country with a stable economic present and promising future. But despite the appealing business landscape and opportunities both in number and size, it is a developing economy where firms who are willing to run a startup or who currently have B2B technology operations in this country will find out that uncertainty and mistrust are two of the most critical variables that need to be overcome in order to achieve success. Their relevance will vary from one region to another, but will still be considered of most importance throughout the country. This matter is highly important to B2B technology businesses in Colombia because few firms are aware of the importance of customer intimacy strategy, believing that it is just a matter of social relationships and not considering the diverse number of variables such us perception, trust and networking that compose it. Customer intimacy strategy at the end becomes the main and most relevant source of sales in a B2B technology environment in Colombia.

Why has productivity growth stagnated in most Latin American countries since the neo-liberal reforms?

Latin America’s economic performance since the beginning of neo-liberal reforms has been poor; this not only contrasts with its own performance pre-1980, but also with what has happened in Asia since 1980. I shall argue that the weakness of the region’s new paradigm is rooted as much in its intrinsic flaws as in the particular way it has been implemented. Latin America’s economic reforms were undertaken primarily as a result of the perceived economic weaknesses of the region — i.e., there was an attitude of ‘throwing in the towel’ vis-à-vis the previous state-led import substituting industrialisation strategy, because most politicians and economists interpreted the 1982 debt crisis as conclusive evidence that it had led the region into a cul-de-sac. As Hirschman has argued, policymaking has a strong component of ‘path-dependency’; as a result, people often stick with policies after they have achieved their aims, and those policies have become counterproductive. This leads to such frustration and disappointment with existing policies and institutions that is not uncommon to experience a ‘rebound effect’. An extreme example of this phenomenon is post-1982 Latin America, where the core of the discourse of the economic reforms that followed ended up simply emphasising the need to reverse as many aspects of the previous development (and political) strategies as possible. This helps to explain the peculiar set of priorities, the rigidity and the messianic attitude with which the reforms were implemented in Latin America, as well as their poor outcome. Something very different happened in Asia, where economic reforms were often intended (rightly or wrongly) as a more targeted and pragmatic mechanism to overcome specific economic and financial constraints. Instead of implementing reforms as a mechanism to reverse existing industrialisation strategies, in Asia they were put into practice in order to continue and strengthen ambitious processes of industrialisation.

Non-invasive strategy in assessing asthma through biofluids metabolomics exploration: exhaled breath and urine potentialities

Asthma is a significant health issue in the pediatric population with a noteworthy growth over the years. The proposed challenge for this PhD thesis was the development of advanced methodologies to establish metabolomic patterns in urine and exhaled breath associated with asthma whose applicability was subsequently exploited to evaluate the disease state, the therapy adhesion and effect and for diagnostic purposes. The volatile composition of exhaled breath was studied combining headspace solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) with gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry or with comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry with a high resolution time of flight analyzer (GC×GC–ToFMS). These methodologies allowed the identification of several hundred compounds from different chemical families. Multivariate analysis (MVA) led to the conclusion that the metabolomic profile of asthma individuals is characterized by higher levels of compounds associated with lipid peroxidation, possibly linked to oxidative stress and inflammation (alkanes and aldehydes) known to play an important role in asthma. For future applications in clinical settings a set of nine compounds was defined and the clinical applicability was proven in monitoring the disease status and in the evaluation of the effect and / or adherence to therapy. The global volatile metabolome of urine was also explored using an HSSPME/GC×GC–ToFMS method and c.a. 200 compounds were identified. A targeted analysis was performed, with 78 compounds related with lipid peroxidation and consequently to oxidative stress levels and inflammation. The urinary non-volatile metabolomic pattern of asthma was established using proton nuclear magnetic resonance (1H NMR). This analysis allowed identifying central metabolic pathways such as oxidative stress, amino acid and lipid metabolism, gut microflora alterations, alterations in the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle, histidine metabolism, lactic acidosis, and modification of free tyrosine residues after eosinophil stimulation. The obtained results allowed exploring and demonstrating the potential of analyzing the metabolomic profile of exhaled air and urine in asthma. Besides the successful development of analysis methodologies, it was possible to explore through exhaled air and urine biochemical pathways affected by asthma, observing complementarity between matrices, as well as, verify the clinical applicability.

Feeding strategy with alternate fasting and refeeding: effects on farmed pacu production

P>A 36-day trial was conducted to determine the effects of repetitive periods of food restriction and refeeding on growth and energy metabolism in pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus). A total 264 juvenile fish (36.9 +/- 2.8 g) were fed with the experimental diet for 36 days using three regimes: (i) feeding daily to satiation (FD); (ii) no feed for 3 days, then feeding the same amount offered to the control groups for the next 3 days (NF/R controlled); and (iii) no feed for 3 days, then feeding to apparent satiation for the next 3 days (NF/R at satiation). The treatments were distributed into four tanks each. WG and SGR were higher in FD group. Fish refed showed hyperphagia just up to the second day of refeeding. The worst feed conversion rate and the lowest protein efficiency ratio were found in fish NF/R controlled. The lowest values of visceral fat somatic index were found in both fasted fish groups, particularly in NF/R at satiation. The LL and glycogen concentrations, and the hepatosomatic index were all elevated in both feed restricted fish. Muscle lipid showed a tendency to decrease after the cycle of fasting and refeeding. Plasma free fatty acids and glucose levels were elevated in fish subjected to feeding restrictions while serum triglycerides levels were reduced. Triiodothyronine levels were significantly depressed in fish from the NF/R-controlled group and remained at the same levels as the control fish in fish NF/R at satiation. Results indicated that fish subjected to cyclic periods of 3-day satiation or controlled feeding after 3-days of fasting were unable to achieve the final body weight of fish fed to satiation after 36 days.