Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. METHODS: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18·5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), ≥40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21·3-22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m(2) (24·0-24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m(2) (21·7-22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m(2) (24·2-24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m(2) (28·6-29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m(2) (21·4-22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m(2) (31·5-32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5-17·4) to 8·8% (7·4-10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6-17·9) to 9·7% (8·3-11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8-29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9-29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4-4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7-12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1-7·8) to 14·9% (13·6-16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0-2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4-5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46-0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3-1·9) in women. INTERPRETATION: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada.

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Sunshine Duration over Western Europe

This work analyzes sunshine duration variability in the western part of Europe (WEU) over the 1938– 2004 period. A principal component analysis is applied to cluster the original series from 79 sites into 6 regions, and then annual and seasonal mean series are constructed on regional and also for the whole WEU scales. Over the entire period studied here, the linear trend of annual sunshine duration is found to be nonsignificant. However, annual sunshine duration shows an overall decrease since the 1950s until the early 1980s, followed by a subsequent recovery during the last two decades. This behavior is in good agreement with the dimming and brightening phenomena described in previous literature. From the seasonal analysis, the most remarkable result is the similarity between spring and annual series, although the spring series has a negative trend; and the clear significant increase found for the whole WEU winter series, being especially large since the 1970s. The behavior of the major synoptic patterns for two seasons is investigated, resulting in some indications that sunshine duration evolution may be partially explained by changes in the frequency of some of them

NeighborHood

NeighborHood és una aplicació basada en el núvol, adaptable a qualsevol dispositiu (mòbil, tablet, desktop). L'objectiu d'aquesta aplicació és poder permetre als usuaris introduir a les persones del seu entorn més immediat i que aquestes persones siguin visibles per a la resta d'usuaris.

Trends and strategies of ozone application in environmental problems

Efforts presented by the scientific community in recent years towards the development of numerous green chemical processes and wastewater treatment technologies are presented and discussed. In the light of these approaches, environmentally friendly technologies, as well as the key role played by the well-known advanced oxidation processes, are discussed, giving special attention to the ones comprising ozone applications. Fundamentals and applied aspects dealing with ozone technology and its application are also presented.

Pollution trends using bark of morus alba in the cities of buenos aires and mendoza (Argentina)

A comparative study of elements deposited on tree bark was carried out for urban and periurban areas of two of the most important cities in Argentina. The content of Fe, Mg, Al, Mn, Zn, Pb, Ba, Cr, Hg, Cu, Ni, Cd and Sb was determined by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-OES) in Morus alba tree bark collected in the cities of Buenos Aires and Mendoza. The main air pollutants detected in the Buenos Aires urban area were Ba, Cr, Cu and Ni and indicate significative difference from the Mendoza urban and periurban areas. Significantly, higher concentrations of Zn, Ba, Cr and Cu were recorded in the periurban area of the city of Buenos Aires than in Mendoza. Bark samples were strongly influenced by dust and show Al, Fe, Mg and other element accumulations that indicate that soil particles were carried out by wind. Elements like Ba and Zn, commonly linked to traffic emissions, showed the highest concentrations in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area, possibly due to more intensive vehicular traffic. Our results indicated that intensity of vehicular traffic and not city structure is responsible for air pollution.

Climate trends in the municipality of Pelotas, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

ABSTRACTChanges in the frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events have been pointed out as a likely impact of global warming. In this context, this study aimed to detect climate change in series of extreme minimum and maximum air temperature of Pelotas, State of Rio Grande do Sul, (1896 - 2011) and its influence on the probability of occurrence of these variables. We used the general extreme value distribution (GEV) in its stationary and non-stationary forms. In the latter case, GEV parameters are variable over time. On the basis of goodness-of-fit tests and of the maximum likelihood method, the GEV model in which the location parameter increases over time presents the best fit of the daily minimum air temperature series. Such result describes a significant increase in the mean values of this variable, which indicates a potential reduction in the frequency of frosts. The daily maximum air temperature series is also described by a non-stationary model, whose location parameter decreases over time, and the scale parameter related to sample variance rises between the beginning and end of the series. This result indicates a drop in the mean of daily maximum air temperature values and increased dispersion of the sample data.

Future trends of Finnish cement based construction

The construction material sector, as a capital intensive industry, is highly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in the economic cycles. In Finland this was witnessed especially during the late 2000s, as in 2007 and 2008 the demand for several construction materials exceeded their supply and right after this, in 2009 the demand collapsed fast as a result of an international recession. These factors brought about the need to study the future trends of the market place of the commissioning company, Finnsementti Oy. As reliable short term market forecasts for the sector are difficult to compose, the study concentrates primarily in examining and identifying the trends that are likely to affect the Finnish cement industry, and as an extension, the concrete industry in a frame of 10 to 15 years. The study’s scope comprehends also the examination of the domestic construction sector, as it represents the end user industry of both cement and concrete. These motives for the study produce the research problem, which is to conduct a trend analysis for cement based building in the Finnish market area in the 2020s. The theoretical frame for composing a trend analysis in the case of this study is twofold. This is due to the fact that both, the macro and micro environments of the examined industries are studied. The main methods used are the PESTE-model (macro) and Porter’s five forces model (micro). The study applies a qualitative approach and the data is gathered by interviewing a group of experts from the cement, concrete and construction industries. The result of the paper is an overall trend analysis for the Finnish cement based building sector, which is based on ‘sub trend analyses’ concerning four identified sub-sectors of the Finnish construction industry. The results are a combination of findings from these sub-sectors and the analyzed data that deals with the studied sector’s macro and micro environment. The conclusions provide an overall picture of the examined sectors’ potential future as a whole and by defined sub-sectors of the construction industry. The recognition of future trends in different areas of the construction industry can be applied as a means for an industry actor’s decision making and in estimating the types of construction that are likely to grow or decline. Finally, based on the analyzed data and conclusions, the commissioning company is provided with a brief SWOT analysis, that provides additional tools for decision making and planning processes regarding the future.

Identification of research trends in the field of separation processes. Application of epidemiological model, citation analysis, text mining, and technical analysis of the financial markets

Choice of industrial development options and the relevant allocation of the research funds become more and more difficult because of the increasing R&D costs and pressure for shorter development period. Forecast of the research progress is based on the analysis of the publications activity in the field of interest as well as on the dynamics of its change. Moreover, allocation of funds is hindered by exponential growth in the number of publications and patents. Thematic clusters become more and more difficult to identify, and their evolution hard to follow. The existing approaches of research field structuring and identification of its development are very limited. They do not identify the thematic clusters with adequate precision while the identified trends are often ambiguous. Therefore, there is a clear need to develop methods and tools, which are able to identify developing fields of research. The main objective of this Thesis is to develop tools and methods helping in the identification of the promising research topics in the field of separation processes. Two structuring methods as well as three approaches for identification of the development trends have been proposed. The proposed methods have been applied to the analysis of the research on distillation and filtration. The results show that the developed methods are universal and could be used to study of the various fields of research. The identified thematic clusters and the forecasted trends of their development have been confirmed in almost all tested cases. It proves the universality of the proposed methods. The results allow for identification of the fast-growing scientific fields as well as the topics characterized by stagnant or diminishing research activity.

Five Baltic Ports Togehter: Forecasts, Trends and Recommendations

The ports of Stockholm, Tallinn, Helsinki, Naantali and Turku play key roles in making the Central Baltic region accessible. Effective, competitive, eco-friendly and safe port procedures and solutions for the transportation of goods are of major importance for trade in the Baltic Sea region. This report presents the most essential results and recommendations of the PENTA project, which focused on how ports could better comprehend and face current and future challenges facing carriage of goods by sea. Each of the four work packages (WPs) of the PENTA project analysed the changes from a different perspective. WP2 focused on traffic flows between the PENTA ports. Its main emphasis was on the ports, shipowners, and logistics companies that are the key parties in freight transport and on the changes affecting the economy of those ports. In WP3 noise as an environmental challenge for ports was investigated and the analysis also shed light on the relationship between the port and the city. In WP4 procedures related to safety, security and administrative procedures were researched. The main emphasis was on identifying the requirements for the harmonisation of those procedures. Collaboration is highlighted throughout this report. In order to prepare for the future, it was found that ports need to respond to growing competition, increasing costs and shifts in customer demand by strengthening their existing partnerships with other actors in the maritime cluster. Cargo and passenger transport are the main sources of income for most ports. Cargo traffic between the PENTA ports is expected to grow steadily in the future and the outlook for passenger traffic is positive. However, to prepare for the future, ports should not only secure the core activities which generate revenue but also seek alternative ways to make profit. In order to gain more transit traffic, it is suggested that ports conduct a more thorough study of the future requirements for doing business with Russia. The investigation of noise at ports revealed two specific dilemmas that ports cannot solve alone. Firstly, the noise made by vessels and, secondly, the relationship between the port and the surrounding city. Vessels are the most important single noise source in the PENTA ports and also one of the hardest noise sources to handle. Nevertheless, port authorities in Finland and Sweden are held responsible for all noise in the port area, including noise produced by vessels, which is noise the port authority can only influence indirectly. Building housing by waterfront areas close to ports may also initiate disagreements because inhabitants may want quiet areas, whereas port activities always produce some noise from their traffic. The qualitative aspects of the noise question, cooperating with the stakeholders and the communicating of issues related to noise are just as important. We propose that ports should follow the logic of continuous improvement in their noise management. The administrative barriers discussed in this report are mainly caused by differences in international and national legislation, variations in the customs procedures of each country, the incompatibility of the IT systems used in maritime transport, noncompliance with regulations regarding dangerous goods, and difficulties in applying Schengen regulations to vessels from non-EU countries. Improving the situation is out of the hands of the ports to do alone and requires joint action on a variety of levels, including the EU, national authorities and across administrative borders.