Stochastic dynamic programming for election timing: A game theory approach

In this paper, we consider dynamic programming for the election timing in the majoritarian parliamentary system such as in Australia, where the government has a constitutional right to call an early election. This right can give the government an advantage to remain in power for as long as possible by calling an election, when its popularity is high. On the other hand, the opposition's natural objective is to gain power, and it will apply controls termed as "boosts" to reduce the chance of the government being re-elected by introducing policy and economic responses. In this paper, we explore equilibrium solutions to the government, and the opposition strategies in a political game using stochastic dynamic programming. Results are given in terms of the expected remaining life in power, call and boost probabilities at each time at any level of popularity.

Vibrational dynamics and structure of natural feldspars

The present study gives a contribution to the knowledge on the Na-feldspar and plagioclases, extending the database of the Raman spectra of plagioclases with different chemical compositions and structural orders. This information may be used for the future planetary explorations by “rovers”, for the investigation of ceramics nanocrystal materials and for the mineralogical phase identification in sediments. Na-feldspar and plagioclase solid solution have been investigated by Raman spectroscopy in order to determine the relationships between the vibrational changes and the plagioclase crystal chemistry and structure. We focused on the Raman micro-spectroscopy technique, being a non-destructive method, suited for contactless analysis with high spatial resolution. Chemical and structural analyses have been performed on natural samples to test the usefulness of Raman spectroscopy as a tool in the study of the pressure-induced structural deformations, the disordering processes due to change in the Al-Si distribution in the tetrahedral sites and, finally, in the determination of the anorthitic content (Anx) in plagioclase minerals. All the predicted 39 Ag Raman active modes have been identified and assigned to specific patterns of atomic vibrational motion. A detailed comparison between experimental and computed Raman spectra has been performed and previous assignments have been revised, solving some discrepancies reported in recent literature. The ab initio calculation at the hybrid HF/DFT level with the WC1LYP Hamiltonian has proven to give excellent agreement between calculated and experimentally measured Raman wavenumbers and intensities in triclinic minerals. A short digression on the 36 infrared active modes of Na-feldspar has been done too. The identification of all 39 computed Raman modes in the experimentally measured spectra of the fully ordered Na-feldspar, known as low albite, along with the detailed description of each vibrational mode, has been essential to extend the comparative analysis to the high pressure and high temperature structural forms of albite, which reflect the physical–chemical conditions of the hosting rocks. The understanding of feldspar structure response to pressure and temperature is crucial in order to constrain crustal behaviour. The compressional behaviour of the Na-feldspar has been investigated for the first time by Raman spectroscopy. The absence of phase transitions and the occurrence of two secondary compression mechanisms acting at different pressures have been confirmed. Moreover, Raman data suggest that the internal structural changes are confined to a small pressure interval, localized around 6 GPa, not spread out from 4 to 8 GPa as suggested by previous X-rays studies on elasticity. The dominant compression mechanisms act via tetrahedral tilting, while the T-O bond lengths remain nearly constant at moderate compressional regimes. At the spectroscopic level, this leads to the strong pressure dependencies of T-O-T bending modes, as found for the four modes at 478, 508, 578 and 815 cm-1. The Al-Si distribution in the tetrahedral sites affects also the Raman spectrum of Na-feldspar. In particular, peak broadening is more sensitive than peak position to changes in the degree of order. Raman spectroscopy is found to be a good probe for local ordering, in particular being sensitive to the first annealing steps, when the macroscopic order parameter is still high. Even though Raman data are scattered and there are outliers in the estimated values of the degree of order, the average peak linewidths of the Na-feldspar characteristic doublet band, labelled here as υa and υb, as a function of the order parameter Qod show interesting trends: both peak linewidths linearly increase until saturation. From Qod values lower than 0.6, peak broadening is no more affected by the Al-Si distribution. Moreover, the disordering process is found to be heterogeneous. SC-XRD and Raman data have suggested an inter-crystalline inhomogeneity of the samples, i.e., the presence of regions with different defect density on the micrometric scale. Finally, the influence of Ca-Na substitution in the plagioclase Raman spectra has been investigated. Raman spectra have been collected on a series of well characterized natural, low structural plagioclases. The variations of the Raman modes as a function of the chemical composition and the structural order have been determined. The number of the observed Raman bands at each composition gives information about the unit-cell symmetry: moving away from the C1 structures, the number of the Raman bands enhances, as the number of formula units in the unit cell increases. The modification from an “albite-like” Raman spectrum to a more “anorthite-like” spectrum occurs from sample An78 onwards, which coincides with the appearance of c reflections in the diffraction patterns of the samples. The evolution of the Raman bands υa and υb displays two changes in slope at ~An45 and ~An75: the first one occurs between e2 and e1 plagioclases, the latter separates e1 and I1 plagioclases with only b reflections in their diffraction patterns from I1 and P1 samples having b and c reflections too. The first variation represents exactly the e2→e1 phase transitions, whereas the second one corresponds in good approximation to the C1→I1 transition, which has been determined at ~An70 by previous works. The I1→P1 phase transition in the anorthite-rich side of the solid solution is not highlighted in the collected Raman spectra. Variations in peak broadening provide insights into the behaviour of the order parameter on a local scale, suggesting an increase in the structural disorder within the solid solution, as the structures have to incorporate more Al atoms to balance the change from monovalent to divalent cations. All the information acquired on these natural plagioclases has been used to produce a protocol able to give a preliminary estimation of the chemical composition of an unknown plagioclase from its Raman spectrum. Two calibration curves, one for albite-rich plagioclases and the other one for the anorthite-rich plagioclases, have been proposed by relating the peak linewidth of the most intense Raman band υa and the An content. It has been pointed out that the dependence of the composition from the linewidth can be obtained only for low structural plagioclases with a degree of order not far away from the references. The proposed tool has been tested on three mineralogical samples, two of meteoric origin and one of volcanic origin. Chemical compositions by Raman spectroscopy compare well, within an error of about 10%, with those obtained by elemental techniques. Further analyses on plagioclases with unknown composition will be necessary to validate the suggested method and introduce it as routine tool for the determination of the chemical composition from Raman data in planetary missions.

The theory of on-line learning: a statistical physics approach

In this paper we review recent theoretical approaches for analysing the dynamics of on-line learning in multilayer neural networks using methods adopted from statistical physics. The analysis is based on monitoring a set of macroscopic variables from which the generalisation error can be calculated. A closed set of dynamical equations for the macroscopic variables is derived analytically and solved numerically. The theoretical framework is then employed for defining optimal learning parameters and for analysing the incorporation of second order information into the learning process using natural gradient descent and matrix-momentum based methods. We will also briefly explain an extension of the original framework for analysing the case where training examples are sampled with repetition.

The TAP approach to intensive and extensive connectivity systems

The Thouless-Anderson-Palmer (TAP) approach was originally developed for analysing the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model in the study of spin glass models and has been employed since then mainly in the context of extensively connected systems whereby each dynamical variable interacts weakly with the others. Recently, we extended this method for handling general intensively connected systems where each variable has only O(1) connections characterised by strong couplings. However, the new formulation looks quite different with respect to existing analyses and it is only natural to question whether it actually reproduces known results for systems of extensive connectivity. In this chapter, we apply our formulation of the TAP approach to an extensively connected system, the Hopfield associative memory model, showing that it produces identical results to those obtained by the conventional formulation.

Secondary market pricing behaviour around UK bond auctions

Using an event study approach, this article reports evidence that the UK Treasury bond market displayed anomalous pricing behaviour in the secondary market both immediately before and after auctions of seasoned bonds. Using a benchmark return derived from the behaviour of the underlying yield curve, the market offered statistically and economically significant excess returns, around the auctions held between 1992 and 2004. A cross-sectional analysis of the cumulative excess returns shows that the excess demand at the auctions is a key determinant of this excess return.

Biocomposites of non-crosslinked natural and synthetic polymers

Biocomposite films comprising a non-crosslinked, natural polymer (collagen) and a synthetic polymer, poly(var epsilon-caprolactone) (PCL), have been produced by impregnation of lyophilised collagen mats with a solution of PCL in dichloromethane followed by solvent evaporation. This approach avoids the toxicity problems associated with chemical crosslinking. Distinct changes in film morphology, from continuous surface coating to open porous format, were achieved by variation of processing parameters such as collagen:PCL ratio and the weight of the starting lyophilised collagen mat. Collagenase digestion indicated that the collagen content of 1:4 and 1:8 collagen:PCL biocomposites was almost totally accessible for enzymatic digestion indicating a high degree of collagen exposure for interaction with other ECM proteins or cells contacting the biomaterial surface. Much reduced collagen exposure (around 50%) was measured for the 1:20 collagen:PCL materials. These findings were consistent with the SEM examination of collagen:PCL biocomposites which revealed a highly porous morphology for the 1:4 and 1:8 blends but virtually complete coverage of the collagen component by PCL in the1:20 samples. Investigations of the attachment and spreading characteristics of human osteoblast (HOB) cells on PCL films and collagen:PCL materials respectively, indicated that HOB cells poorly recognised PCL but attachment and spreading were much improved on the biocomposites. The non-chemically crosslinked, collagen:PCL biocomposites described are expected to provide a useful addition to the range of biomaterials and matrix systems for tissue engineering.

Learning and teaching through context: a data-driven approach

A word may have many potential meanings, but its actual meaning in any authentic written or spoken text is determined by its context: its collocations, structural patterns, and pragmatic functions. Large language corpora offer access to words in a wide range of natural contexts, which can improve and enrich both language learning and teaching.

Estimating parameters in stochastic systems:a variational Bayesian approach

This work is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variation of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here a new extended framework is derived that is based on a local polynomial approximation of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. The paper begins by showing that the new extension of this variational algorithm can be used for state estimation (smoothing) and converges to the original algorithm. However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new approach is validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, the exact likelihood of which can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz ’63 (3D model). As a special case the algorithm is also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz ’96 system. In our investigation we compare this new approach with a variety of other well known methods, such as the hybrid Monte Carlo, dual unscented Kalman filter, full weak-constraint 4D-Var algorithm and analyse empirically their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases. In particular we show that we are able to estimate parameters in both the drift (deterministic) and the diffusion (stochastic) part of the model evolution equations using our new methods.

A methodology for evaluating and selecting processes for natural gas conditioning

The aim of this work was to develop a generic methodology for evaluating and selecting, at the conceptual design phase of a project, the best process technology for Natural Gas conditioning. A generic approach would be simple and require less time and would give a better understanding of why one process is to be preferred over another. This will lead to a better understanding of the problem. Such a methodology would be useful in evaluating existing, novel and hybrid technologies. However, to date no information is available in the published literature on such a generic approach to gas processing. It is believed that the generic methodology presented here is the first available for choosing the best or cheapest method of separation for natural gas dew-point control. Process cost data are derived from evaluations carried out by the vendors. These evaluations are then modelled using a steady-state simulation package. From the results of the modelling the cost data received are correlated and defined with respect to the design or sizing parameters. This allows comparisons between different process systems to be made in terms of the overall process. The generic methodology is based on the concept of a Comparative Separation Cost. This takes into account the efficiency of each process, the value of its products, and the associated costs. To illustrate the general applicability of the methodology, three different cases suggested by BP Exploration are evaluated. This work has shown that it is possible to identify the most competitive process operations at the conceptual design phase and illustrate why one process has an advantage over another. Furthermore, the same methodology has been used to identify and evaluate hybrid processes. It has been determined here that in some cases they offer substantial advantages over the separate process techniques.

A combinatorial approach to the chemical synthesis and biological evaluation of 3,4,5-trisubstiituted furan-2(5H)-ones

Many important natural products contain the furan-2(5H)-one structure. The structure of this molecule lends itself to manipulation using combinatorial techniques due to the presence of more than one site for the attachment of different suhstituents. By developing different reaction schemes at the three sites available for attachment on the furan-2(5H)-one scaffold, combinatorial chemistry techniques can be employed to assemble libraries of novel furan 2(5H)-ones. These libraries can then be entered into various biological screening programmes. This approach will enable a vast diversity or compounds to be examined, in the hope or finding new biologically active Iead structures. The work in this thesis has investigated the potential that combinatorial chemistry has in the quest for new biologically active lead structures based on the furan-2(5H)-one structure. Different reactions were investigated with respect to their suitability for inclusion in a library. Once sets of reactions at the various sites had been established, the viability of these reactions in the assembly of combinatorial libraries was investigated. Purification methods were developed, and the purified products entered into suitable biological screening tests. Results from some of these tests were optimised using structure activity relationships, and the resulting products re-screened. The screening tests performed were for anticancer and antimicrobial activity, cholecystokinin (CCK-B) antagonism and anti-inflammatory activity (in the quest for novel cyclo-oxygenase (COX-2) selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs). It has been shown that many reactions undergone by the furan-2(5H)-one structure are suitable for the assembly of a combinatorial library. Investigation into the assembly of different libraries has been carried out with initial screening results included. From this work, further investigation into combinatorial library assembly and structure activity relationships of screened reaction products can be undertaken.

A novel and rational approach towards designing aluminium chelators

Aluminium (Al) is known to be neurotoxic and has been associated with the aetiology of Alzheimer's Disease. To date, only desferrioxamine (DFO), a trihydroxamic acid siderophore has been used in the clinical environment for the removal of Al from the body. However, this drug is expensive, orally inactive and is associated with many side effects. These studies employed a theoretical approach, with the use of quantum mechanics (QM) via semi-empirical molecular orbital (MO) calculations, and a practical approach using U87-MG glioblastoma cells as a model for evaluating the influence of potential chelators on the passage of aluminium into cells. Preliminary studies involving the Cambridge Structural Database (CSD) identified that Al prefers binding to bidentate ligands in a 3:1 manner, whereby oxygen was the exclusive donating atom. Statistically significant differences in M-O bond lengths when compared to other trivalent metal ions such as Fe3+ were established and used as an acceptance criterion for subsequent MO calculations. Of the semi-empirical methods parameterised for Al, the PM3 Hamiltonian was found to give the most reliable final optimised geometries of simple 3:1 Al complexes. Consequently the PM3 Hamiltonian was used for evaluating the Hf of 3:1 complexes with more complicated ligands. No correlation exists between published stability constants and individual parameters calculated via PM3 optimisations, although investigation of the dicarboxylates reveals a correlation of 0.961 showing promise for affinity prediction of closely related ligands. A simple and inexpensive morin spectrofluorescence assay has been developed and optimised producing results comparable to atomic absorption spectroscopy methods for the quantitative analysis of Al. This assay was used in subsequent in vitro models, initially on E. coli, which indicated that Al inhibits the antimicrobial action of ciprofloxacin, a potent quinolone antibiotic. Ensuing studies using the second model, U87-MG cells, investigated the influence of chelators on the transmembrane transport of Al, identifying 1,2-diethylhydroxypyridin-4-one as a ligand showing greatest potential for chelating Al in the clinical situation. In conclusion, these studies have explored semi-empirical MO Hamiltonians and an in-vitro U87-MG cell line, both as possible methods for predicting effective chelators of Al.

Combinatorial approach to multi-substituted 1,4-Benzodiazepines as novel non-peptide CCK-antagonists

For the drug discovery process, a library of 168 multisubstituted 1,4-benzodiazepines were prepared by a 5-step solid phase combinatorial approach. Substituents were varied in the 3,5, 7 and 8-position on the benzodiazepine scaffold. The combinatorial library was evaluated in a CCK radiolabelled binding assay and CCKA (alimentary) and CCKB (brain) selective lead structures were discovered. The template of CCKA selective 1,4-benzodiazepin-2-ones bearing the tryptophan moiety was chemically modified by selective alkylation and acylation reactions. These studies provided a series of Asperlicin naturally analogues. The fully optimised Asperlicin related compound possessed a similar CCKA activity as the natural occuring compound. 3-Alkylated 1,4-benzodiazepines with selectivity towards the CCKB receptor subtype were optimised on A) the lipophilic side chain and B) the 2-aminophenyl-ketone moiety, together with some stereochemical changes. A C3 unit in the 3-position of 1,4-benzodiazepines possessed a CCKB activity within the nanomolar range. Further SAR optimisation on the N1-position by selective alkylation resulted in an improved CCKB binding with potentially decreased activity on the GABAA/benzodiazepine receptor complex. The in vivo studies revealed two N1-alkylated compounds containing unsaturated alkyl groups with anxiolytic properties. Alternative chemical approaches have been developed, including a route that is suitable for scale up of the desired target molecule in order to provide sufficient quantities for further in vivo evaluation.

Local and systemic delivery of a novel group of inhibitors of transglutaminase enzyme: A potential approach for treating of catheter-related complications and liver fibrosis

The present thesis investigates targeted (locally and systemically) delivery of a novel group of inhibitors of enzyme transglutaminases (TGs). TGs are a widely distributed group of enzymes that catalyse the formation of isopeptide bonds between the y-carboxamide group of protein-bound glutamines and the a-amino group of protein-bound lysines or polyamines. The first group of the novel inhibitors tested were the tluorescently labelled inhibitors of Factor XIIIa (FXIIIa). These small, non-toxic inhibitors have the potential to prevent stabilisation of thrombi by FXIIIa and consequently increase the natural rate of thrombolysis, in addition it reduces staphylococcal colonisation of catheters by inhibiting their FXIIIa¬mediated cross-linking to blood clot proteins on the central venous catheter (CVCs) surface. The aim of this work was to incorporate the FXIIIa inhibitor either within coating of polyurethane (PU) catheters or to integrate it into silicone catheters, so as to reduce the incidence of thrombotic occlusion and associated bacterial infection in CVCs. The initial work focused on the incorporation of FXIIIa inhibitors within polymeric coatings of PU catheters. After defining the key characteristics desired for an effective polymeric-coating, polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP), poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA) or their combination were studies as polymers of choice for coating of the catheters_ The coating was conducted by dip-coating method in a polymer solution containing the inhibitor. Upon incubation of the inhibitor-and polymer-coated strips in buffer, PVP was dissolved instantly, generating fast and significant drug release, whilst PLGA did not dissolve, yielding a slow and an insufficient amount of drug release. Nevertheless, the drug release profile was enhanced upon employing a blend solution of PVP and PLGA. The second part of the study was to incorporate the FXIIIa inhibitor into a silicone elastomer; results demonstrated that FXIIIa inhibitor can be incorporated and released from silicone by using citric acid (CA) and sodium bicarbonate (SB) as additives and the drug release rate can be controlled by the amount of incorporated additives in the silicone matrix. Furthermore, it was deemed that the inhibitor was still biologically active subsequent to being released from the silicone elastomer strips. Morphological analysis confirmed the formation of channels and cracks inside the specimens upon the addition of CA and SB. Nevertheless, the tensile strength, in addition to Young's modulus of silicone elastomer strips, decreased constantly with an increasing amount of amalgamated CA/ SB in the formulations. According to our results, incorporation of FXIIIa inhibitor into catheters and other medical implant devices could offer new perspectives in preventing bio-material associated infections and thrombosis. The use of tissue transglutaminase (T02) inhibitor for treating of liver fibrosis was also investigated. Liver fibrosis is characterized by increased synthesis and decreased degradation of the extracellular matrix (ECM). Transglutaminase-mediated covalent cross-linking is involved in the stabilization of ECM in human liver fibrosis. Thus, TG2 inhibitors may be used to counteract the decreased degradation of the ECM. The potential of a liposome based drug delivery system for site specific delivery of the fluorescent TG2 inhibitor into the liver was investigated; results indicated that the TG2 inhibitor can be successfully integrated into liposomes and delivered to the liver, therefore demonstrating that liposomes can be employed for site-specific delivery of TG2 inhibitors into the liver and TG2 inhibitor incorporating liposomes could offer a new approach in treating liver fibrosis and its end stage disease cirrhosis.