946 resultados para individual-specific uncertainty


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Past studies resulted in conflicting definitions of consumer motivation. On the one hand, motivations are seen as the consumer’s characteristics that shape her general behavior (motivational trait). On the other hand, they are seen as contextual variables representing the reason why the individual is behaving specific to today’s context (motivational state). The objective of this research is to stress the difference between these two concepts and to understand the impact of each on consumer behavior. We applied our empirical study to shopping motivations; our results show a strong interaction between motivational trait and motivational state. Problem and Hypothesis On the one hand, Westbrook and Black (1985) consider shopping motivations as individual permanent characteristics. This concept is shared by other researchers (Rohm and Swaminathan 2004), which show that some shoppers are functional (they shop for convenience, information seeking, and time saving) while some others are hedonic (they shop for social interaction, bargain hunting and browsing). On the other hand, Kaltcheva and Weitz (2006) define motivations as a contextual orientation changing over time, depending on the situation, and show that contextual shopping motivations have a strong impact on shopping behavior. From our knowledge, no research specifically examined the respective impact of both these shopping motivation types. To deal with this issue, we used the notions of “traits” and “states” that have been largely used in marketing research to designate respectively a permanent characteristic of the individual and a temporary orientation of the consumer (Mowen 2000). The reversal theory (Apter 2001) suggests that two opposite states exist: the telic and the paratelic states. In the telic state, individuals set goals for themselves, must be disciplined to reach these goals, and do not behave in accordance with their personal trait. In the paratelic state, individuals are seeking arousal and enjoyment, do not set rules, and one could postulate that they act in accordance with their natural tendencies. Based on these considerations, we hypothesize the following process: in situations involving paratelic states, hedonic as well as functional individuals should behave according to their natural traits, whereas in situations involving telic states, hedonic people should inhibit their natural propensity to enjoy shopping and behave similarly to functional people. Hence, we postulate the following: Hypothesis: Compared to shoppers with functional motivational trait, shoppers with hedonic motivational trait will a) significantly display more hedonic shopping behavior intentions in a condition of paratelic motivational state, and b) not display more hedonic shopping behavior intentions in a condition a telic motivational state Empirical Research First, 108 participants were asked to fill a multi-items scale about their shopping habits, which actually measured their shopping motivational traits. This questionnaire allowed us to highlight four different dimensions in shopping motivational traits: social interaction, novelty/utility seeking, bargain hunting, and browsing. According to their scores on different items, participants were classified as functional or as hedonic on each of these four dimensions (a single individual may be hedonic on some dimensions and functional on others). Then, participants were then induced to adopt either a telic or a paratelic shopping motivational state while reading an appropriate scenario. Finally, participants were asked for their shopping behavior intentions in response to the shopping context. Four items were developed, corresponding to the four shopping motivational trait dimensions we found with our factor analysis. Results As we found four dimensions in shopping motivational trait, we set up four quasi-experimental designs to capture the entire phenomenon: for each dimension, a 2 (motivational trait) x 2 (motivational state) design was built, where the dependant variable was the shopping behavior element corresponding to the studied dimension. Four 2 x 2 Anovas were performed to assess the interaction between motivational trait and motivational state. Concerning the three dimensions - browsing, novelty/utility seeking, and bargain hunting- , in the paratelic state scenario participants with hedonic motivational trait displayed significantly more hedonic shopping behavior intentions than participants with a functional motivational trait (resp. F = 9.701, p = .003; F = 4.979, p = .03; F = 5.757, p = .02); and in the telic state scenario, there was no significant difference in behavior intentions between participants with hedonic or functional motivation trait. Each time, the interaction effect between motivational state and motivational trait was significant (resp. F = 4.859, p = .03; F = 3.314, p = .07; F = 2.98, p = .08). Concerning the fourth dimension, social interaction, shopping behavior intentions of participants with hedonic and with functional motivational traits were significantly different in the paratelic state scenario (F = 29.898, p <.000) as well as in the telic state scenario (F = 9.559, p = .003). However, the interaction effect showed that this behavioral difference was significantly stronger in the paratelic scenario. All these results support our research hypothesis. Discussion and Implications Our study provides consistent support for our hypotheses saying that there is an interaction effect between shopping motivational states and shopping motivational traits. The generalization of the results is strengthened by the study of four different shopping traits: social interaction, novelty/utility seeking, bargain hunting and browsing. As we proposed, when shopping in a goal-oriented state (telic state), behaviors of hedonic and functional shoppers do not differ significantly. Conversely, when shopping for a recreational reason (paratelic state), hedonic and functional shoppers behave significantly different. These results could explain why some previous studies concluded that shopping motivational traits had no impact on shopping behavior: they did not take into consideration the interaction between motivational trait and motivational state. Moreover, our study shows that marketing surveys performed by store managers to draw the personal profile of their customers must be crossed with contextual motivations in order to accurately forecast shopper behavior. Future Developments Our results can be explained by the self-control process, which pushes hedonic-trait shoppers to behave in a rather functional way in utilitarian situations. However, to be certain that this is the very process that occurs, we plan to add self-control perception scales to our existing measures. This is obviously the next step of this research.

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Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within the UncertWeb project which are designed to provide uncertainty support in the context of the proposed ‘Model Web’. We give an overview of uncertainty in modelling, review uncertainty management in existing modelling frameworks and consider the semantic and interoperability issues raised by integrated modelling. We describe the scope and architecture required to support uncertainty management as developed in UncertWeb. This includes tools which support elicitation, aggregation/disaggregation, visualisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. We conclude by highlighting areas that require further research and development in UncertWeb, such as model calibration and inference within complex environmental models.

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Past studies resulted in conflicting definitions of consumer motivation. Motivations are seen either as the consumer? s characteristics that shape her general behavior (motivational trait), or as contextual variables representing the reason why the individual is behaving specific to today?s context (motivational state). The objective of this research is to understand the impact of each on consumer behavior. Applied to shopping motivations, our study shows a strong interaction between motivational trait and state: motivational traits influence behavior only when associated with a recreational motivational state. In a functional motivational state, individuals prevent their personal characteristics from being fully expressed.

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An applied psychological framework for coping with performance uncertainty in sport and work systems is presented. The theme of personal control serves to integrate ideas prevalent in industrial and organisational psychology, the stress literature and labour process theory. These commonly focus on the promotion of tacit knowledge and learned resourcefulness in individual performers. Finally, data from an empirical evaluation of a development training programme to facilitate self-regulation skills in professional athletes are briefly highlighted.

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tentially valuable innovations. In energy policy, much attention is given to analysing and incentivising customer demand, but new technologies also need new supply markets, to provide products and services to build, operate and maintain the innovative technology. This paper addresses the impact of supply constraints on the long-term viability of sustainability related innovations, using the case of energy from waste (EfW). Uncertainties in the pricing and availability of feedstock (i.e. waste) deter potential investors in EfW projects. We draw on prior supply management research to conceptualise the problem, and identify what steps might be taken to address it. Based on this analysis, we propose a research agenda aimed at purchasing and supply scholars and centred on the need to understand better how markets evolve and how stakeholders can (legitimately) influence the evolution of supply markets to support the adoption of sustainability related innovation. Within this broad case, specific themes are recommended for further investigation.

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Diabetic nephropathy (DN) is characterized by an early, progressive expansion and sclerosis of the glomerular mesangium leading to glomerulosclerosis. This is associated with parallel fibrosis of the renal interstitium. In experimental renal scarring, the protein cross-linking enzyme, tissue transglutaminase (tTg), is up-regulated and externalized causing an increase in its crosslink product, e-(γ-glutamyl)-lysine, in the extracellular space. This potentially contributes to the extracellular matrix (ECM) accumulation central to tissue fibrosis by increasing deposition and inhibiting breakdown. We investigated if a similar mechanism may contribute to the ECM expansion characteristic of DN using the rat streptozotocin model over 120 days. Whole kidney e-(γ-glutamyl)-lysine (HPLC analysis) was significantly increased from Day 90 (+337%) and peaked at Day 120 (+650%) (p <0.05). Immunofluorescence showed this increase to be predominantly extracellular in the peritubular interstitial space, but also in individual glomeruli. Total kidney transglutaminase (Tg) was not elevated. However, using a Tg in situ activity assay, increased Tg was detected in both the extracellular interstitial space and glomeruli by Day 60, with a maximal 53% increase at Day 120 (p <0.05). Using a specific anti-tTg antibody, immunohistochemistry showed a similar increase in extracellular enzyme in the interstitium and glomeruli. To biochemically characterize glomerular changes, glomeruli were isolated by selective sieving. In line with whole kidney measurement, there was an increase in glomerular e-(γ-glutamyl) lysine (+ 361%); however, in the glomeruli this was associated with increases in Tg activity (+228%) and tTg antigen by Western blotting (+215%). Importantly, the ratio of glomerular e-(γ-glutamyl) lysine to hydroxyproline increased by 2.2-fold. In DN, changes in the kidney result in increased translocation of tTg to the extracellular environment where high Ca2+ and low GTP levels allow its activation. In the tubulointerstitium this is independent of increased tTg production, but dependent in the glomerulus. This leads to excessive ECM cross-linking, contributing to the renal fibrosis characteristic of progressive DN.

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In the specific area of software engineering (SE) for self-adaptive systems (SASs) there is a growing research awareness about the synergy between SE and artificial intelligence (AI). However, just few significant results have been published so far. In this paper, we propose a novel and formal Bayesian definition of surprise as the basis for quantitative analysis to measure degrees of uncertainty and deviations of self-adaptive systems from normal behavior. A surprise measures how observed data affects the models or assumptions of the world during runtime. The key idea is that a "surprising" event can be defined as one that causes a large divergence between the belief distributions prior to and posterior to the event occurring. In such a case the system may decide either to adapt accordingly or to flag that an abnormal situation is happening. In this paper, we discuss possible applications of Bayesian theory of surprise for the case of self-adaptive systems using Bayesian dynamic decision networks. Copyright © 2014 ACM.

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This study examined the relations between anxiety and individual characteristics of sensory sensitivity (SS) and intolerance of uncertainty (IU) in mothers of children with ASD. The mothers of 50 children completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Highly Sensitive Person Scale and the IU Scale. Anxiety was associated with both SS and IU and IU was also associated with SS. Mediation analyses showed direct effects between anxiety and both IU and SS but a significant indirect effect was found only in the model in which IU mediated between SS. This is the first study to characterize the nature of the IU and SS interrelation in predicting levels of anxiety.

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The possibility to analyze, quantify and forecast epidemic outbreaks is fundamental when devising effective disease containment strategies. Policy makers are faced with the intricate task of drafting realistically implementable policies that strike a balance between risk management and cost. Two major techniques policy makers have at their disposal are: epidemic modeling and contact tracing. Models are used to forecast the evolution of the epidemic both globally and regionally, while contact tracing is used to reconstruct the chain of people who have been potentially infected, so that they can be tested, isolated and treated immediately. However, both techniques might provide limited information, especially during an already advanced crisis when the need for action is urgent. In this paper we propose an alternative approach that goes beyond epidemic modeling and contact tracing, and leverages behavioral data generated by mobile carrier networks to evaluate contagion risk on a per-user basis. The individual risk represents the loss incurred by not isolating or treating a specific person, both in terms of how likely it is for this person to spread the disease as well as how many secondary infections it will cause. To this aim, we develop a model, named Progmosis, which quantifies this risk based on movement and regional aggregated statistics about infection rates. We develop and release an open-source tool that calculates this risk based on cellular network events. We simulate a realistic epidemic scenarios, based on an Ebola virus outbreak; we find that gradually restricting the mobility of a subset of individuals reduces the number of infected people after 30 days by 24%.

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Many studies have assessed the neural underpinnings of creativity, failing to find a clear anatomical localization. We aimed to provide evidence for a multi-componential neural system for creativity. We applied a general activation likelihood estimation (ALE) meta-analysis to 45 fMRI studies. Three individual ALE analyses were performed to assess creativity in different cognitive domains (Musical, Verbal, and Visuo-spatial). The general ALE revealed that creativity relies on clusters of activations in the bilateral occipital, parietal, frontal, and temporal lobes. The individual ALE revealed different maximal activation in different domains. Musical creativity yields activations in the bilateral medial frontal gyrus, in the left cingulate gyrus, middle frontal gyrus, and inferior parietal lobule and in the right postcentral and fusiform gyri. Verbal creativity yields activations mainly located in the left hemisphere, in the prefrontal cortex, middle and superior temporal gyri, inferior parietal lobule, postcentral and supramarginal gyri, middle occipital gyrus, and insula. The right inferior frontal gyrus and the lingual gyrus were also activated. Visuo-spatial creativity activates the right middle and inferior frontal gyri, the bilateral thalamus and the left precentral gyrus. This evidence suggests that creativity relies on multi-componential neural networks and that different creativity domains depend on different brain regions.

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Uncertainty text detection is important to many social-media-based applications since more and more users utilize social media platforms (e.g., Twitter, Facebook, etc.) as information source to produce or derive interpretations based on them. However, existing uncertainty cues are ineffective in social media context because of its specific characteristics. In this paper, we propose a variant of annotation scheme for uncertainty identification and construct the first uncertainty corpus based on tweets. We then conduct experiments on the generated tweets corpus to study the effectiveness of different types of features for uncertainty text identification. © 2013 Association for Computational Linguistics.

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Redox regulation of signalling pathways is critical in proliferation and apoptosis; redox imbalance can lead to pathologies such as inflammation and cancer. Vaccinia H1-related protein (VHR; DUSP3) is a dual-specificity phosphatase important in controlling MAP kinase activity during cell cycle. the active-site motif contains a cysteine that acts as a nucleophile during catalysis. We used VHR to investigate the effect of oxidation in vitro on phosphatase activity, with the aim of determining how the profile of site-specific modification related to catalytic activity. Recombinant human VHR was expressed in E. coli and purified using a GST-tag. Protein was subjected to oxidation with various concentrations of SIN-1 or tetranitromethane (TNM) as nitrating agents, or HOCl. the activity was assayed using either 3-O-methylfluorescein phosphate with fluorescence detection or PIP3 by phosphate release with malachite green. the sites of oxidation were mapped using HPLC coupled to tandem mass spectrometry on an ABSciex 5600TripleTOF following in-gel digestion. More than 25 different concentration-dependent oxidative modifications to the protein were detected, including oxidations of methionine, cysteine, histidine, lysine, proline and tyrosine, and the % oxidized peptide (versus unmodified peptide) was determined from the extracted ion chromatograms. Unsurprisingly, methionine residues were very susceptible to oxidation, but there was a significant different in the extent of their oxidation. Similarly, tyrosine residues varied greatly in their modifications: Y85 and Y138 were readily nitrated, whereas Y38, Y78 and Y101 showed little modification. Y138 must be phosphorylated for MAPK phosphatase activity, so this susceptibility impacts on signalling pathways. Di- and tri- oxidations of cysteine residues were observed, but did not correlate directly with loss of activity. Overall, the catalytic activity did not correlate with redox state of any individual residue, but the total oxidative load correlated with treatment concentration and activity. This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of oxidation modifications of VHR, and demonstrates both heterogenous oxidant effects and differential residue susceptibility in a signalling phosphatase.

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eHabitat is a Web Processing Service (WPS) designed to compute the likelihood of finding ecosystems with equal properties. Inputs to the WPS, typically thematic geospatial "layers", can be discovered using standardised catalogues, and the outputs tailored to specific end user needs. Because these layers can range from geophysical data captured through remote sensing to socio-economical indicators, eHabitat is exposed to a broad range of different types and levels of uncertainties. Potentially chained to other services to perform ecological forecasting, for example, eHabitat would be an additional component further propagating uncertainties from a potentially long chain of model services. This integration of complex resources increases the challenges in dealing with uncertainty. For such a system, as envisaged by initiatives such as the "Model Web" from the Group on Earth Observations, to be used for policy or decision making, users must be provided with information on the quality of the outputs since all system components will be subject to uncertainty. UncertWeb will create the Uncertainty-Enabled Model Web by promoting interoperability between data and models with quantified uncertainty, building on existing open, international standards. It is the objective of this paper to illustrate a few key ideas behind UncertWeb using eHabitat to discuss the main types of uncertainties the WPS has to deal with and to present the benefits of the use of the UncertWeb framework.

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There is a growing awareness that inflammatory diseases have an oxidative pathology, which can result in specific oxidation of amino acids within proteins. Antibody-based techniques for detecting oxidative posttranslational modifications (oxPTMs) are often used to identify the level of protein oxidation. There are many commercially available antibodies but some uncertainty to the potential level of cross reactivity they exhibit; moreover little information regarding the specific target epitopes is available. The aim of this work was to investigate the potential of antibodies to distinguish between select peptides with and without oxPTMs. Two peptides, one containing chlorotyrosine (DY-Cl-EDQQKQLC) and the other an unmodified tyrosine (DYEDQQKQLC) were synthesized and complementary anti-sera were produced in sheep using standard procedures. The anti-sera were tested using a half-sandwich ELISA and the anti-serum raised against the chloro-tyrosine containing peptide showed increased binding to the chlorinated peptide, whereas the control anti-serum bound similarly to both peptides. This suggested that antibodies can discriminate between similar peptide sequences with and without an oxidative modification. A peptide (STSYGTGC) and its variants with chlorotyrosine or nitrotyrosine were produced. The anti-sera showed substantially less binding to these alternative peptides than to the original peptides the anti-sera were produced against. Work is ongoing to test commercially available antibodies against the synthetic peptides as a comparison to the anti-sera produced in sheep. In conclusion, the antisera were able to distinguish between oxidatively modified and unmodified peptides, and two different sequences around the modification site.

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Strategy is highly important for organisational success and the achievement of competitive advantage. Strategy is dynamic and it depends on accurate individual decision-making from medium and high-level managers and executives. Since managers always formulate strategy, its formulation depends mostly on their assertive decisions. Making good decisions is a complex task, even more in today’s business world where a large quantity of information and a dynamic environment forces people to decide without having complete information. As Shafir, Simonson, & Tversky (1993) point out, "the making of decisions, both big and small, is often difficult because of uncertainty and conflict". In this paper the author will explain a basic theoretical framework about top manager's individual decision-making, showing how complex the process of making high-impact decisions is; then, he will compare this theory with one of the most important streams in strategic management, the Resource-Based View (RBV) of the firm. Finally, within the context of individual decision-making and the RBV stream, the author will show how individual decision makers in top management positions constitute a valuable, rare, non-imitable and non-substitutable resource that provides sustained competitive advantage.