Modeling the monetary policy reaction function of the colombian central bank

This paper proposes a simple Ordered Probit model to analyse the monetary policy reaction function of the Colombian Central Bank. There is evidence that the reaction function is asymmetric, in the sense that the Bank increases the Bank rate when the gap between observed inflation and the inflation target (lagged once) is positive, but it does not reduce the Bank rate when the gap is negative. This behaviour suggests that the Bank is more interested in fulfilling the announced inflation target rather than in reducing inflation excessively. The forecasting performance of the model, both within and beyond the estimation period, appears to be particularly good.

Osteomielitis esternal: utilidad de las pruebas de diagnóstico por imágenes con enfoque en medicina nuclear

Introducción: El diagnóstico de osteomielitis esternal post-esternotomía resulta difícil empleando síntomas clínicos o de laboratorio y las imágenes morfológicas orientan a sospecha más que al diagnóstico. Un diagnóstico precoz ofrece calidad de vida y el mejor tratamiento para reducir una mortalidad que oscila entre 14% y 47%. La gammagrafía con leucocitos marcados ofrece el mejor rendimiento diagnóstico para infecciones y se destaca como el patrón de oro diagnóstico. Objetivo: Identificar el desempeño y utilidad de la gammagrafía con leucocitos autólogos marcados con 99mTc-HMPAO en los estudios realizados para la evaluación de osteomielitis esternal. Materiales y métodos: Se realizó un estudio descriptivo, retrospectivo de prueba diagnóstica en la Fundación Cardioinfantil de Bogotá entre enero/2010 y mayo/2015 evaluando gammagrafías con leucocitos marcados ante la sospecha de osteomielitis posterior a esternotomía. Resultados: Se evaluaron 52 pacientes, en los que la gammagrafía con leucocitos mostró 23 pacientes (44,2%) con osteomielitis esternal, logrando una sensibilidad y especificidad del 88,46% y 100% respectivamente. El valor predictivo positivo fue de 100%, y el valor predictivo negativo fue de 89,66%. El impacto de una prueba negativa no modificó el manejo médico inicial en el 93% de los casos mientras que una prueba positiva lo modificó en el 83%. Conclusiones: La gammagrafía con leucocitos autólogos radiomarcados con 99mTc-HMPAO continúa siendo el patrón de oro de referencia no invasiva para el diagnóstico de osteomielitis, y en el caso de osteomielitis esternal se convierte en la prueba de elección pertinente en la selección de pacientes que ameritan una re-intervención quirúrgica.

Toxina botulínica en manejo de síntomas del tracto urinario bajo en pacientes con hiperplasia prostática benigna - revisión sistemática de la literatura

Revisión sistemática de la literatura tomando ensayos clínicos aleatorizados sobre el uso de la inyección intraprostática de la toxina botulínica en los pacientes con hiperplasia prostática benigna evaluando una escala validada de síntomas del tracto urinario bajo como desenlace primario

Mecánica ventricular izquierda en pacientes con infarto agudo del miocardio

RESUMEN Introducción El papel de las nuevas técnicas ecocardiográficas para el diagnóstico de infarto agudo del miocardio se encuentra en desarrollo y la realización de mecánica ventricular izquierda podría sugerir la presencia de enfermedad coronaria hemodinámicamente significativa. Objetivos Determinar si en pacientes con infarto agudo del miocardio la medición de strain longitudinal global y regional sirve para predecir la presencia de enfermedad coronaria significativa. Métodos Es un estudio de pruebas diagnósticas en el que se evaluaron las características operativas de la mecánica ventricular izquierda para la detección de enfermedad coronaria significativa comparado contra el cateterismo cardiaco, considerado el patrón de oro. Se analizaron 54 pacientes con infarto agudo del miocardio llevados a cateterismo cardiaco, a quienes se les realizó un ecocardiograma transtorácico con medición de strain longitudinal global y regional. Resultados De los 54 pacientes analizados, el 83% tenía enfermedad coronaria significativa. El hallazgo de un strain longitudinal global < -17.5 tuvo una sensibilidad del 85% y una especificidad del 78% para predecir la presencia de enfermedad coronaria; para la arteria descendente anterior un strain longitudinal regional < – 17.4 tuvo una sensibilidad de 82% y una especificidad de 44%, para la arteria circunfleja una sensibilidad del 87% y una especificidad del 37% y para la arteria coronaria derecha una sensibilidad de 73% y una especificidad de 32%. Conclusiones La realización de ecocardiografía con mecánica ventricular en pacientes con infarto agudo del miocardio es útil para predecir la presencia de enfermedad coronaria hemodinámicamente significativa.

Análisis de supervivencia en pacientes con prótesis valvular biológica, Fundación Cardioinfantil-Instituto de Cardiología, Colombia, 2005-2013

Introducción: A partir de la década de los cincuenta el manejo de la enfermedad valvular presenta cambios significativos cuando se incorporan los reemplazos valvulares tanto mecánicos como biológicos dentro de las opciones de tratamiento quirúrgico (1). Las válvulas biológicas se desarrollaron como una alternativa que buscaba evitar los problemas relacionados con la anticoagulación y con la idea de utilizar un tejido que se comportara hemodinámicamente como el nativo. Este estudio está enfocado en establecer la sobrevida global y la libertad de reoperación de la válvula de los pacientes sometidos a reemplazo valvular aórtico y mitral biológicos en la Fundación Cardioinfantil - IC a 1, 3, 5 y 10 años. Materiales y métodos: Estudio de cohorte retrospectiva de supervivencia de pacientes sometidos a reemplazo valvular aórtico y/o mitral biológico intervenidos en la Fundación Cardioinfantil entre 2005 y 2013. Resultados: Se obtuvieron 919 pacientes incluidos en el análisis general y 876 (95,3%) pacientes con seguimiento efectivo para el análisis de sobrevida. La edad promedio fue 64años. La sobrevida a 1, 3, 5 y 10 años fue 95%,90%,85% y 69% respectivamente. El seguimiento efectivo para el desenlace reoperación fue del 55% y se encontró una libertad de reoperación del 99%, 96%, 93% y 81% a los 1, 3, 5 y 10 años. No hubo diferencias significativas entre la localización de la válvula ni en el tipo de válvula aortica empleada. Conclusiones: La sobrevida de los pacientes que son llevados a reemplazo valvular biológico en este estudio es comparable a grandes cohortes internacionales. La sobrevida de los pacientes llevados a reemplazo valvular con prótesis biológicas en posición mitral y aortica fue similar a 1, 3, 5 y 10 años.

Estudo da presença de Mycobacterium avium subespécie paratuberculosis numa exploração leiteira no Litoral Centro de Portugal Continental

A Paratuberculose, conhecida também como Doença de Johne, é uma afeção infecciosa que provoca uma enterite granulomatosa crónica causada pelo agente Mycobacterium avium subespécie paratuberculosis (Map). É uma doença de carácter contagioso, de distribuição mundial, atingindo os mamíferos, particularmente os pequenos e grandes ruminantes, equinos, suínos, búfalos, coelhos, etc. Tem um grande impacto económico, nomeadamente na redução da produção leiteira, na redução dos teores de proteína no leite, na susceptibilidade a outras doenças, no refugo de animais e no aumento dos custos na sanidade. Pensa-se que também terá impacto a nível de Saúde Pública uma vez que o Map pode estar associado á doença de Crohn em humanos em que o leite cru, leite em pó ou leite pasteurizado podem ser os veículos de transmissão, porém não existem estudos suficientes para sustentar este acontecimento. A técnica de diagnóstico “Gold Standard” é a cultura microbiológica de fezes, no entanto é um procedimento muito demorado podendo levar até 4 meses para se observarem as colónias bacterianas, uma vez que o seu crescimento é muito lento. Deste modo, existem outros testes, tais como o PCR e ELISA, com elevada especificidade para o agente que fornecem resultados mais rápidos e que permitem minimizar os falsos-positivos, apesar da sua reduzida sensibilidade (por volta dos 50%). Este estudo é baseado na observação das instalações da exploração e consequente comparação com parâmetros analisados e documentados em literatura. Para além disso, são utilizadas informações fornecidas pelo Software da exploração com o intuito de estudar a incidência da Paratuberculose, ao longo dos anos, de modo a comprovar se as medidas de maneio e de higiene adotadas pela exploração afetada contribuem ou não de alguma maneira para o controlo/erradicaçãoda doença de Johne.

Historia de la cooperación monetaria y financiera internacional y su importancia en el desarrollo del mercado financiero internacional (Tema Central)

La historia de la cooperación monetaria y financiera internacional da cuenta de la forma en que el sistema monetario influyó en el mercado financiero internacional. En las páginas que siguen se podrá observar cómo los países intentaron su equilibrio interno y externo, a través de sus diversos mecanismos monetarios internacionales. El período patrón oro (1870-1914), merece atención, porque las tentativas subsiguientes de reformar el sistema monetario internacional, sobre la base de tipos de cambio fijos, se la construyó sobre la fortaleza del patrón oro. Los años de entreguerras (1918-1939) fueron marcados por la tendencia en la impresión desbocada de billetes, lo que trajo altos niveles de inflación. El Acuerdo Bretton Woods (1945-1973), que crea el Fondo Monetario Internacional, fue el resultado de la enorme preocupación de los gobiernos de cuarenta y cuatro países, por los acontecimientos económicos desastrosos en el período de entreguerras.

Comparison of sample size formulae for 2x2 cross-over designs applied to bioequivalence studies

We consider the comparison of two formulations in terms of average bioequivalence using the 2 × 2 cross-over design. In a bioequivalence study, the primary outcome is a pharmacokinetic measure, such as the area under the plasma concentration by time curve, which is usually assumed to have a lognormal distribution. The criterion typically used for claiming bioequivalence is that the 90% confidence interval for the ratio of the means should lie within the interval (0.80, 1.25), or equivalently the 90% confidence interval for the differences in the means on the natural log scale should be within the interval (-0.2231, 0.2231). We compare the gold standard method for calculation of the sample size based on the non-central t distribution with those based on the central t and normal distributions. In practice, the differences between the various approaches are likely to be small. Further approximations to the power function are sometimes used to simplify the calculations. These approximations should be used with caution, because the sample size required for a desirable level of power might be under- or overestimated compared to the gold standard method. However, in some situations the approximate methods produce very similar sample sizes to the gold standard method. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials: a review of methods used in practice

Background: Meta-analyses based on individual patient data (IPD) are regarded as the gold standard for systematic reviews. However, the methods used for analysing and presenting results from IPD meta-analyses have received little discussion. Methods We review 44 IPD meta-analyses published during the years 1999–2001. We summarize whether they obtained all the data they sought, what types of approaches were used in the analysis, including assumptions of common or random effects, and how they examined the effects of covariates. Results: Twenty-four out of 44 analyses focused on time-to-event outcomes, and most analyses (28) estimated treatment effects within each trial and then combined the results assuming a common treatment effect across trials. Three analyses failed to stratify by trial, analysing the data is if they came from a single mega-trial. Only nine analyses used random effects methods. Covariate-treatment interactions were generally investigated by subgrouping patients. Seven of the meta-analyses included data from less than 80% of the randomized patients sought, but did not address the resulting potential biases. Conclusions: Although IPD meta-analyses have many advantages in assessing the effects of health care, there are several aspects that could be further developed to make fuller use of the potential of these time-consuming projects. In particular, IPD could be used to more fully investigate the influence of covariates on heterogeneity of treatment effects, both within and between trials. The impact of heterogeneity, or use of random effects, are seldom discussed. There is thus considerable scope for enhancing the methods of analysis and presentation of IPD meta-analysis.

Active control comparisons: the ideal trial design

This report describes the concept for a clinical trial that uses carbamazepine as the gold-standard active control for a study of newly diagnosed patients. The authors describe an endpoint including efficacy and tolerability, and a stopping rule that uses a series of interim analyses in order to reach a conclusion as efficiently as possible without sacrificing reliability.

Evaluation of the time resolved fluorescence immunoassay (TRFIA) for the detection of varicella zoster virus (VZV) antibodies following vaccination of healthcare workers

Determination of varicella zoster virus (VZV) immunity in healthcare workers without a history of chickenpox is important for identifying those in need of vOka vaccination. Post immunisation, healthcare workers in the UK who work with high risk patients are tested for seroconversion. To assess the performance of the time-resolved fluorescence immunoassay (TRFIA) for the detection of antibody in vaccinated as well as unvaccinated individuals, a cut-off was first calculated. VZV-IgG specific avidity and titres six weeks after the first dose of vaccine were used to identify subjects with pre-existing immunity among a cohort of 110 healthcare workers. Those with high avidity (≥60%) were considered to have previous immunity to VZV and those with low or equivocal avidity (<60%) were considered naive. The former had antibody levels ≥400mIU/mL and latter had levels <400mIU/mL. Comparison of the baseline values of the naive and immune groups allowed the estimation of a TRFIA cut-off value of >130mIU/mL which best discriminated between the two groups and this was confirmed by ROC analysis. Using this value, the sensitivity and specificity of TRFIA cut-off were 90% (95% CI 79-96), and 78% (95% CI 61-90) respectively in this population. A subset of samples tested by the gold standard Fluorescence Antibody to Membrane Antigen (FAMA) test showed 84% (54/64) agreement with TRFIA.

Molecular typing of Salmonella serotypes prevalent in animals in England: assessment of methodology

Salmonella enterica serotypes Derby, Mbandaka, Montevideo, Livingstone, and Senftenberg were among the 10 most prevalent serotypes isolated from farm animals in England and Wales in 1999. These serotypes are of potential zoonotic relevance; however, there is currently no "gold standard" fingerprinting method for them. A collection of isolates representing the former serotypes and serotype Gold Coast were analyzed using plasmid profiling, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), and ribotyping. The success of the molecular methods in identifying DNA polymorphisms was different for each serotype. Plasmid profiling was particularly useful for serotype Derby isolates, and it also provided a good level of discrimination for serotype Senftenberg. For most serotypes, we observed a number of nontypeable plasmid-free strains, which represents a limitation of this technique. Fingerprinting of genomic DNA by ribotyping and PFGE produced a significant variation in results, depending on the serotype of the strain. Both PstI/SphI ribotyping and XbaI-PFGE provided a similar degree of strain differentiation for serotype Derby and serotype Senftenberg, only marginally lower than that achieved by plasmid profiling. Ribotyping was less sensitive than PFGE when applied to serotype Mbandaka or serotype Montevideo. Serotype Gold Coast isolates were found to be nontypeable by XbaI-PFGE, and a significant proportion of them were found to be plasmid free. A similar situation applies to a number of serotype Livingstone isolates which were nontypeable by plasmid profiling and/or PFGE. In summary, the serotype of the isolates has a considerable influence in deciding the best typing strategy; a single method cannot be relied upon for discriminating between strains, and a combination of typing methods allows further discrimination.

Application of dried blood spots to determine vitamin D status in a large nutritional study with unsupervised sampling: the Food4Me project

An efficient and robust method to measure vitamin D (25-hydroxy vitamin D3 (25(OH)D3) and 25-hydroxy vitamin D2 in dried blood spots (DBS) has been developed and applied in the pan-European multi-centre, internet-based, personalised nutrition intervention study Food4Me. The method includes calibration with blood containing endogenous 25(OH)D3, spotted as DBS and corrected for haematocrit content. The methodology was validated following international standards. The performance characteristics did not reach those of the current gold standard liquid chromatography-MS/MS in plasma for all parameters, but were found to be very suitable for status-level determination under field conditions. DBS sample quality was very high, and 3778 measurements of 25(OH)D3 were obtained from 1465 participants. The study centre and the season within the study centre were very good predictors of 25(OH)D3 levels (P<0·001 for each case). Seasonal effects were modelled by fitting a sine function with a minimum 25(OH)D3 level on 20 January and a maximum on 21 July. The seasonal amplitude varied from centre to centre. The largest difference between winter and summer levels was found in Germany and the smallest in Poland. The model was cross-validated to determine the consistency of the predictions and the performance of the DBS method. The Pearson's correlation between the measured values and the predicted values was r 0·65, and the sd of their differences was 21·2 nmol/l. This includes the analytical variation and the biological variation within subjects. Overall, DBS obtained by unsupervised sampling of the participants at home was a viable methodology for obtaining vitamin D status information in a large nutritional study.

Cone-beam computerized tomographic, radiographic, and histologic evaluation of periapical repair in dogs` post-endodontic treatment

Objective. To evaluate the periapical repair after root canal treatment in the teeth of dogs using CT and conventional radiography and to compare these findings with the gold standard microscopic evaluation. Study design. The animals were divided into three groups according to endodontic treatment performed: Group 1, single-visit endodontic treatment in teeth without apical periodontitis; Group 2, single-visit endodontic treatment in teeth with apical periodontitis; and Group 3, endodontic treatment in teeth with apical periodontitis using calcium hydroxide as a root canal dressing. Group 4 consisted of teeth with apical periodontitis not submitted to root canal treatment and Group 5 consisted of healthy teeth without periapical disease. Radiographic, tomographic, and microscopic evaluations were performed by blind examiners. At 180 days experimental time, CT and radiographic measurements of periapical disease were compared with the gold standard microscopic measurement using intraclass correlation coefficient. Intergroup comparisons considering different methods of periapical lesions measurement or different clinical protocols of root canal treatment were performed by Kruskal Wallis test followed by Dunn. Integrity of lamina dura, presence of radiolucent areas, and presence of root resorption were analyzed by Fisher`s exact test. Results. There was discontinuity of the lamina dura and CPD in all teeth from Groups 2, 3, and 4 evaluated by tomography and radiography 45 days after CPD induction. Radiographically, 180 days after root canal treatment, there was no periapical lesion in teeth from Groups 1 and 3, different from groups 2 and 4 (p < .05). The highest reduction in the CPD size was observed on Group 3 (p < .05). According to the tomographic results, there was decrease of the size of the CPD on Group 3 but not on Groups 2 or 4. However, in all groups the periapical lesions presented larger mesio-distal extension if compared with radiography, both 45 days after CPD induction and 180 days after root canal treatment. At 180 days, CT measurements were closely related to microscopic results (ICC = 0.95) differently from radiographic evaluation (ICC = 0.86). Conclusion. CT Scan evaluation of periapical repair following root canal treatment provided similar information than that obtained by microscopic analysis, whereas radiographic evaluation underestimated the size do periapical lesion. (Oral Surg Oral Med Oral Pathol Oral Radiol Endod 2009; 108:796-805)

Noninvasive Evaluation of Oral Lesions Using Depth-sensitive Optical Spectroscopy

BACKGROUND: Optical spectroscopy is a noninvasive technique with potential applications for diagnosis of oral dysplasia and early cancer. In this study, we evaluated the diagnostic performance of a depth-sensitive optical spectroscopy (DSOS) system for distinguishing dysplasia and carcinoma from non-neoplastic oral mucosa. METHODS: Patients with oral lesions and volunteers without any oral abnormalities were recruited to participate. Autofluorescence and diffuse reflectance spectra of selected oral sites were measured using the DSOS system. A total of 424 oral sites in 124 subjects were measured and analyzed, including 154 sites in 60 patients with oral lesions and 270 sites in 64 normal volunteers. Measured optical spectra were used to develop computer-based algorithms to identify the presence of dysplasia or cancer. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated using a gold standard of histopathology for patient sites and clinical impression for normal volunteer sites. RESULTS: Differences in oral spectra were observed in: (1) neoplastic versus nonneoplastic sites, (2) keratinized versus nonkeratinized tissue, and (3) shallow versus deep depths within oral tissue. Algorithms based on spectra from 310 nonkeratinized anatomic sites (buccal, tongue, floor of mouth, and lip) yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.96 in the training set and 0.93 in the validation set. CONCLUSIONS: The ability to selectively target epithelial and shallow stromal depth regions appeared to be diagnostically useful. For nonkeratinized oral sites, the sensitivity and specificity of this objective diagnostic technique were comparable to that of clinical diagnosis by expert observers. Thus, DSOS has potential to augment oral cancer screening efforts in community settings. Cancer 2009;115:1669-79. (C) 2009 American Cancer Society.