Improving electricity market price scenarios by means of forecasting factor models

In liberalized electricity markets, generation Companies must build an hourly bidthat is sent to the market operator. The price at which the energy will be paid is unknown during the bidding process and has to be forecast. In this work we apply forecasting factor models to this framework and study its suitability.

Creació d'una botiga virtual i automatització dels albarans, factures i cobraments

L’augment de la utilització de les noves tecnologies a la nostra societat permet a les empreses arribar al client d’una forma més rapida i facilitant la informació de manera àgil i ordenada. Amb aquest objectiu s’ha creat una botiga virtual que serà la part visible als usuaris i clients de l’empresa PRINTONER S.L , dedicada al sector dels consumibles, especialment els reciclats. Per l’empresa un dels objectius principals és oferir al client la possibilitat de comprar els seus productes de manera còmode a través d’Internet, ja que accedint amb un nom d’usuari i una contrasenya podrà obtenir totes les referències de les que es disposa, podrà tramitar les comandes i controlar-ne l’estat fins el moment de l’entrega. A part de les seccions destinades a usuaris i clients s’ha creat una zona d’administració, on els responsables de l’empresa podran gestionar tots els productes, modificar i visualitzar les comandes. A més aprofitant que aquestes quedaran guardades a una base de dades juntament amb els productes venuts, s’integrarà el sistema de facturació de l’empresa, cosa que fins el moment es feia de manera manual i maldestre. També es programarà una part on els responsables podran insertar reparacions i vendes informàtiques que s’hagin de facturar o per fer-ne un us estadístic en un futur. Tot això ens portarà a implementar un sistema d’usuaris registrats amb diferents permisos i diferents nivells d’accés a l’aplicació, fins a un total de 5. S’ha intentat fer de l’aplicació, un sistema a mida i que compleixi tots els requisits que l’empresa ens ha demanat, amb la previsió que més endavant s’hi pugui implementar un sistema de gestió d’estocs i altres millores per oferir als seus clients un servei inigualable. Per tal de portar a terme tot aquest treball s’ha utilitzat una tecnologia de lliure distribució com és el llenguatge PHP i la base de dades MySQL, aquesta opció a part d’una filosofia es produeix per intentar minimitzar els costos de l’aplicatiu. La finalitat de l’empresa amb aquest projecte és oferir millor imatge i servei, efectivitat i rapidesa en tot el procés de vendes, així com reduir costos de facturació i també de publicitat, ja que es podrà potenciar molt més la pàgina web via internet.

A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

A reflection about the social and technological aspects in flood risk management - the case of the Italian Civil Protection

The right of a person to be protected from natural hazards is a characteristic of the social and economical development of the society. This paper is a contribution to the reflection about the role of Civil Protection organizations in a modern society. The paper is based in the inaugural conference made by the authors on the 9th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms. Two major issues are considered. The first one is sociological; the Civil Protection organizations and the responsible administration of the land use planning should be perceived as reliable as possible, in order to get consensus on the restrictions they pose, temporary or definitely, on the individual free use of the territory as well as in the entire warning system. The second one is technological: in order to be reliable they have to issue timely alert and warning to the population at large, but such alarms should be as "true" as possible. With this aim, the paper summarizes the historical evolution of the risk assessment, starting from the original concept of "hazard", introducing the concepts of "scenario of event" and "scenario of risk" and ending with a discussion about the uncertainties and limits of the most advanced and efficient tools to predict, to forecast and to observe the ground effects affecting people and their properties. The discussion is centred in the case of heavy rains and flood events in the North-West of Mediterranean Region.

Improving QPF by blending techniques at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia

The current operational very short-term and short-term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) is made by three different methodologies: Advection of the radar reflectivity field (ADV), Identification, tracking and forecasting of convective structures (CST) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models using observational data assimilation (radar, satellite, etc.). These precipitation forecasts have different characteristics, lead time and spatial resolutions. The objective of this study is to combine these methods in order to obtain a single and optimized QPF at each lead time. This combination (blending) of the radar forecast (ADV and CST) and precipitation forecast from NWP model is carried out by means of different methodologies according to the prediction horizon. Firstly, in order to take advantage of the rainfall location and intensity from radar observations, a phase correction technique is applied to the NWP output to derive an additional corrected forecast (MCO). To select the best precipitation estimation in the first and second hour (t+1 h and t+2 h), the information from radar advection (ADV) and the corrected outputs from the model (MCO) are mixed by using different weights, which vary dynamically, according to indexes that quantify the quality of these predictions. This procedure has the ability to integrate the skill of rainfall location and patterns that are given by the advection of radar reflectivity field with the capacity of generating new precipitation areas from the NWP models. From the third hour (t+3 h), as radar-based forecasting has generally low skills, only the quantitative precipitation forecast from model is used. This blending of different sources of prediction is verified for different types of episodes (convective, moderately convective and stratiform) to obtain a robust methodology for implementing it in an operational and dynamic way.

The role of population origin and microenvironment in seedling emergence and early survival in Mediterranean maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton).

Understanding tree recruitment is needed to forecast future forest distribution. Many studies have reported the relevant ecological factors that affect recruitment success in trees, but the potential for genetic-based differences in recruitment has often been neglected. In this study, we established a semi-natural reciprocal sowing experiment to test for local adaptation and microenvironment effects (evaluated here by canopy cover) in the emergence and early survival of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an emblematic Mediterranean forest tree. A novel application of molecular markers was also developed to test for family selection and, thus, for potential genetic change over generations. Overall, we did not find evidence to support local adaptation at the recruitment stage in our semi-natural experiment. Moreover, only weak family selection (if any) was found, suggesting that in stressful environments with low survival, stochastic processes and among-year climate variability may drive recruitment. Nevertheless, our study revealed that, at early stages of recruitment, microenvironments may favor the population with the best adapted life strategy, irrespectively of its (local or non-local) origin. We also found that emergence time is a key factor for seedling survival in stressful Mediterranean environments. Our study highlights the complexity of the factors influencing the early stages of establishment of maritime pine and provides insights into possible management actions aimed at environmental change impact mitigation. In particular, we found that the high stochasticity of the recruitment process in stressful environments and the differences in population-specific adaptive strategies may difficult assisted migration schemes.

2011 - 2015 Iowa Transportation Improvement Program

The Iowa Transportation Improvement Program (Program) is published to inform Iowans of planned investments in our state’s transportation system. The Iowa Transportation Commission (Commission) and Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) are committed to programming those investments in a fiscally responsible manner. This document serves as the Iowa DOT's annual report as required by Iowa Code section 7A.9. This document reflects Iowa’s multimodal transportation system by the inclusion of investments in aviation, transit, railroads, trails, and highways. A major component of this program is the highway section that documents programmed investments on the primary highway system for the next five years. A large part of funding available for highway programming comes from the federal government. Accurately estimating future funding levels of this federal funding is dependent on having a current enacted multi-year federal transportation authorization. The most recent authorization, Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), expired September 30, 2009, and to date it has been extended five times because a new authorization has not yet been enacted. The current extension expires December 31, 2010. While Iowa law does not require the adoption of a Program when federal transportation funding is being reauthorized, the Commission believes it is important to adopt a Program in order to continue on-going planning and project development efforts and to be well positioned when a new authorization is adopted. However, it is important to recognize that, absent a federal authorization bill, there is significant uncertainty in the forecast of federal revenues. The Commission and the Iowa DOT will continue to monitor federal revenues and will adjust future investments as needed to maintain a fiscally responsible Program. In developing the highway section of the program, the Commission’s primary investment objective remains stewardship (i.e. safety, maintenance and preservation) of Iowa’s existing highway system. In fact, over $1.2 billion is programmed in FY2011 through FY2015 for preservation of Iowa’s existing highway system and for enhanced highway safety features. The highway section also includes significant investments for interstate modernization on I-29 inSioux City, on I-29/80/480 in Council Bluffs, and on I-74 in Bettendorf/ Davenport. Another highway programming objective reflected in this Program is maintaining the scheduled completion of capacity and economic development projects that were identified in the previous Program. Finally, with the limited remaining funds the Commission has furthered the investment in capacity and economic development by adding a few projects to the Program. The Iowa DOT and Commission appreciate the public’s involvement in the state’s transportation planning process. Comments received personally, by letter or through participation in the Commission’s regular meetings or public input meetings held around the state each year, are invaluable in providing guidance for the future of Iowa’s transportation system.

Molecular Proxies for Climate Maladaptation in a Long-Lived Tree (Pinus pinaster Aiton, Pinaceae).

Understanding adaptive genetic responses to climate change is a main challenge for preserving biological diversity. Successful predictive models for climate-driven range shifts of species depend on the integration of information on adaptation, including that derived from genomic studies. Long-lived forest trees can experience substantial environmental change across generations, which results in a much more prominent adaptation lag than in annual species. Here, we show that candidate-gene SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) can be used as predictors of maladaptation to climate in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an outcrossing long-lived keystone tree. A set of 18 SNPs potentially associated with climate, 5 of them involving amino acid-changing variants, were retained after performing logistic regression, latent factor mixed models, and Bayesian analyses of SNP-climate correlations. These relationships identified temperature as an important adaptive driver in maritime pine and highlighted that selective forces are operating differentially in geographically discrete gene pools. The frequency of the locally advantageous alleles at these selected loci was strongly correlated with survival in a common garden under extreme (hot and dry) climate conditions, which suggests that candidate-gene SNPs can be used to forecast the likely destiny of natural forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios. Differential levels of forest decline are anticipated for distinct maritime pine gene pools. Geographically defined molecular proxies for climate adaptation will thus critically enhance the predictive power of range-shift models and help establish mitigation measures for long-lived keystone forest trees in the face of impending climate change.

Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

2012-2016 Iowa Transportation Improvement Program

The Iowa Transportation Improvement Program (Program) is published to inform Iowans of planned investments in our state’s transportation system. The Iowa Transportation Commission (Commission) and Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) are committed to programming those investments in a fiscally responsible manner. This document reflects Iowa’s multimodal transportation system by the inclusion of investments in aviation, transit, railroads, trails, and highways. A major component of this program is the highway section that documents programmed investments on the primary highway system for the next five years. A large part of funding available for highway programming comes from the federal government. Accurately estimating future federal funding levels is dependent on having a current enacted multi-year federal transportation authorization. The most recent authorization, Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), expired September 30, 2009, and to date it has been extended seven times because a new authorization has not yet been enacted. The current extension will expire September 30, 2011. This leads to significant uncertainty in federal funding; however, it is becoming evident that, in Federal Fiscal Year 2012 and beyond, federal funding revenue will likely be reduced by 25 percent from current levels in order to match revenue that flows into the Highway Trust Fund. This Program reflects this anticipated reduction in federal funding. While Iowa law does not require the adoption of a Program when federal transportation funding is being reauthorized, the Commission believes it is important to adopt a Program in order to continue on-going planning and project development efforts so that Iowa will be well positioned when a new authorization is adopted. However, it is important to recognize that, absent a federal authorization bill, there is significant uncertainty in the forecast of federal revenues. The Commission and the Iowa DOT will continue to monitor federal revenues and will adjust future investments as needed to maintain a fiscally responsible Program. For 2012-2016, approximately $2.3 billion is forecast to be available for highway right of way and construction. In developing the highway section of the Program, the Commission’s primary investment objective remains stewardship (i.e. safety, maintenance and preservation) of Iowa’s existing highway system. Over $1.3 billion is programmed in FY2012 through FY2016 for preservation of Iowa’s existing highway system and for enhanced highway safety features. The highway section also includes significant interstate investments on I-29 in Sioux City, I-29/80/480 in Council Bluffs, and I-74 in Bettendorf/Davenport. The FY2016 programming for construction on I-74 in Bettendorf/Davenport is the first of several years of significant investments that will be monitored for available funding. Approximately $200 million of the investments on these three major urban interstate projects address preservation needs. In total, approximately $1.5 billion is programmed for highway preservation activities for 2012- 2016. Another highway programming objective is maintaining the scheduled completion of capacity and economic development projects. Projects that were previously scheduled to be completed within the previous Program continue on their current schedule. However, due to the reduction of projected federal revenues, the Commission has delayed by one year the initiation of construction of all multi-year non-Interstate capacity and economic development projects that cannot be completed within this Program. These projects are U.S. 20 in Woodbury County, U.S. 30 in Benton County, U.S. 61 in Louisa County, and Iowa 100 in Linn County. The Iowa DOT and Commission appreciate the public’s involvement in the state’s transportation planning process. Comments received personally, by letter or through participation in the Commission’s regular meetings or public input meetings held around the state each year, are invaluable in providing guidance for the future of Iowa’s transportation system. It should be noted that this document is a planning guide. It does not represent a binding commitment or obligation of the Commission or Iowa DOT, and is subject to change.

Transition to parenthood: The role of social interaction and endogenous networks

Empirical studies indicate that the transition to parenthood is influenced by an individual's peer group. To study the mechanisms creating interdepen- dencies across individuals' transition to parenthood and its timing we apply an agent-based simulation model. We build a one-sex model and provide agents with three different characteristics regarding age, intended education and parity. Agents endogenously form their network based on social closeness. Network members then may influence the agents' transition to higher parity levels. Our numerical simulations indicate that accounting for social inter- actions can explain the shift of first-birth probabilities in Austria over the period 1984 to 2004. Moreover, we apply our model to forecast age-specific fertility rates up to 2016.

Forecasting cosmic doomsday from CMB-LSS cross-correlations.

A broad class of dark energy models, which have been proposed in attempts at solving the cosmological constant problems, predict a late time variation of the equation of state with redshift. The variation occurs as a scalar field picks up speed on its way to negative values of the potential. The negative potential energy eventually turns the expansion into contraction and the local universe undergoes a big crunch. In this paper we show that cross-correlations of the cosmic microwave background anisotropy and matter distribution, in combination with other cosmological data, can be used to forecast the imminence of such cosmic doomsday.

Special Sentence Revocations High, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, May 2010

In addition to their original sentence, persons convicted of sexual abuse, incest or sexual exploitation of a minor also receive a “special sentence” of ten years, or in some cases, life. In its prison population forecast, the Iowa Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning noted “an unexpectedly high rate of revocation among those released to the special sentence, particularly given past research that has shown Iowa sex offenders having very low rates of re-arrest and/or return to prison.”

2013-2018 Highway Program Summary, 2012

The Iowa Transportation Commission (Commission) and the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) develop Iowa’s Five Year Highway Program (Program) to inform you of planned investments in our state’s primary and interstate highway system. This brochure summarizes the FY 2013-2017 Program. $2.6 billion is forecast for highway right of way and construction. The Program is updated and approved in June of each year. A large part of funding available for highway programming comes from the federal government. Accurately estimating future federal funding levels is dependent on having a multiyear federal transportation authorization bill in place. The most recent authorization, Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), expired September 30, 2009, and to date it has been extended nine times because a new authorization has not yet been enacted. The current extension will expire June 30, 2012.

Iowa in Motion, Planning Ahead State Transportation Plan, May 8, 2012

According to 23 CFR § 450.214(a), “The State shall develop a long-range statewide transportation plan, with a minimum 20-year forecast period at the time of adoption, that provides for the development and implementation of the multimodal transportation system for the State.” The state transportation plan (Plan) is a document that will address this requirement and serve as a transportation investment guide between now and 2040. Iowa’s most recent plan was developed by the Iowa Department of Transportation and adopted in 1997 through a planning process called Iowa in Motion. Much of Iowa in Motion has been implemented and this Plan, "Iowa in Motion – Planning Ahead," will build on the success of its predecessor. The Plan projects the demand for transportation infrastructure and services to 2040 based on consideration of social and economic changes likely to occur during this time. Iowa’s economy and the need to meet the challenges of the future will continue to place pressure on the transportation system. With this in mind, the Plan will provide direction for each transportation mode, and will support a renewed emphasis on efficient investment and prudent, responsible management of our existing transportation system. In recent years, the Iowa DOT has branded this philosophy as stewardship. As Iowa changes and the transportation system evolves, one constant will be that the safe and efficient movement of Iowans and our products is essential for stable growth in Iowa’s economy. Iowa’s extensive multimodal and multijurisdictional transportation system is a critical component of economic development and job creation throughout the state.