On judging the credibility of climate predictions

Incorporating a prediction into future planning and decision making is advisable only if we have judged the prediction’s credibility. This is notoriously difficult and controversial in the case of predictions of future climate. By reviewing epistemic arguments about climate model performance, we discuss how to make and justify judgments about the credibility of climate predictions. We propose a new bounding argument that justifies basing such judgments on the past performance of possibly dissimilar prediction problems. This encourages a more explicit use of data in making quantitative judgments about the credibility of future climate predictions, and in training users of climate predictions to become better judges of credibility. We illustrate the approach using decadal predictions of annual mean, global mean surface air temperature.

Generation of Schwann cell-derived multipotent neurospheres isolated from intact sciatic nerve

Schwann cells (SCs) are the supporting cells of the peripheral nervous system and originate from the neural crest. They play a unique role in the regeneration of injured peripheral nerves and have themselves a highly unstable phenotype as demonstrated by their unexpectedly broad differentiation potential. Thus, SCs can be considered as dormant, multipotent neural crest-derived progenitors or stem cells. Upon injury they de-differentiate via cellular reprogramming, re-enter the cell cycle and participate in the regeneration of the nerve. Here we describe a protocol for efficient generation of neurospheres from intact adult rat and murine sciatic nerve without the need of experimental in vivo pre-degeneration of the nerve prior to Schwann cell isolation. After isolation and removal of the connective tissue, the nerves are initially plated on poly-D-lysine coated cell culture plates followed by migration of the cells up to 80% confluence and a subsequent switch to serum-free medium leading to formation of multipotent neurospheres. In this context, migration of SCs from the isolated nerve, followed by serum-free cultivation of isolated SCs as neurospheres mimics the injury and reprograms fully differentiated SCs into a multipotent, neural crest-derived stem cell phenotype. This protocol allows reproducible generation of multipotent Schwann cell-derived neurospheres from sciatic nerve through cellular reprogramming by culture, potentially marking a starting point for future detailed investigations of the de-differentiation process.

English-Spanish bilingual learners of Portuguese as a third language: non-redundant acquisition and its typological nature

This chapter has two goals: (a) to discuss the Spanish-Portuguese interface in current formal language acquisition research and (b) to highlight the contributions of this language pairing in the emerging field of formal third language acquisition. The authors discuss two L3 acquisition studies (Montrul, Dias, & Santos, 2011; Giancaspro, Halloran, & Iverson, in press) examining Differential Object Marking, a morphological case marker present in Spanish but not in Portuguese, arguing that the results show how data from Spanish-English bilinguals learning Brazilian Portuguese as an L3 illuminate the deterministic role of structural and typological similarity in linguistic transfer. The data provide supportive evidence for only one of three existing L3 transfer models: the Typological Proximity Model (Rothman, 2010, 2011, 2013).

For the public without the public

How is the notion of public interest operationalised in the regulatory practices of the International Public Sector Accounting Standards Board (IPSASB)? A fundamental objective in setting international accounting standards for both the private and public sector is to serve the ‘public interest’. Who or what constitutes ‘public interest’ however remains a highly complex and controversial issue. Private sector financial reporting research posits that users (of financial information) are used as a proxy for the ‘public’ and users are further refined to current and potential investors - a small proportion of the public. The debates surrounding public interest are even more contentious in public sector financial reporting which deals with ‘public’ (tax payers’) money. In our study we use Bourdieu’s notion of semi-homogenous fields to show how autonomous and heteronomous pressures from the epistemic community of the accounting profession and political/government interests compete for the right to define the public interest and determine how (by what accounting solutions) this interest is best served. This is a theoretical study grounded in the analysis of empirical data from interviews with the board members of the IPSASB. The main contribution of the paper is to further our understanding of the perceptions of the main decision makers from the ‘inner regulatory circle’ with regards to the problematic construct of public interest. The main findings suggest a paternal and un-reflexive attitude of the board members leading to the conclusion that the public have no real voice in these matters.

Causation, complexity, and the concert: the pragmatics of causal explanation in international relations

A causal explanation provides information about the causal history of whatever is being explained. However, most causal histories extend back almost infinitely and can be described in almost infinite detail. Causal explanations therefore involve choices about which elements of causal histories to pick out. These choices are pragmatic: they reflect our explanatory interests. When adjudicating between competing causal explanations, we must therefore consider not only questions of epistemic adequacy (whether we have good grounds for identifying certain factors as causes) but also questions of pragmatic adequacy (whether the aspects of the causal history picked out are salient to our explanatory interests). Recognizing that causal explanations differ pragmatically as well as epistemically is crucial for identifying what is at stake in competing explanations of the relative peacefulness of the nineteenth-century Concert system. It is also crucial for understanding how explanations of past events can inform policy prescription.

Late persistence of the Acheulian in southern Britain in an MIS 8 interstadial: evidence from Harnham, Wiltshire

This paper presents evidence of the discovery of a new Middle Pleistocene site in central southern England, with undisturbed evidence of hominin occupation well-dated to an interstadial towards the end of Marine Isotope Stage 8, c. 250,000 BP. The site consists of a preserved remnant of a river terrace and its alluvial floodplain overlain by chalk-rich bankside deposits, all abutting a Chalk bedrock riverbank. It preserves an area of occupation with activity focused on the riverbank, complemented by occasional activity on a palaeo-landsurface developed on the surface of the alluvial floodplain. Lithic technology at the site consists almost entirely of handaxe manufacture, allowing attribution to an Acheulian industrial tradition. Mammalian and other palaeo-environmental remains are present and associated with the occupation horizons, including large mammal bones showing signs of hominin interference. Dating was based on OSL determinations on the sediments and amino acid racemisation of molluscan remains, supported by biostratigraphic indications. Besides being a rare instance of an undisturbed Palaeolithic palaeo-landscape covering several hectares, the site contributes to wider Quaternary research concerns over the ability of Middle Pleistocene hominins to tolerate colder climatic episodes in higher latitudes, and over settlement history and changing lithic industrial traditions of northwest Europe in relation to climate change and British peninsularity. It is suggested that the Harnham evidence may represent an insular population that had persisted in southern Britain since MIS 10/9, which became locally extinct during the glacial maximum 8.2 marking the end of MIS 8.

A new regime of carbon counting: the practices and politics of accounting for everyday carbon through C02e

Inspired by the commercial desires of global brands and retailers to access the lucrative green consumer market, carbon is increasingly being counted and made knowable at the mundane sites of everyday production and consumption, from the carbon footprint of a plastic kitchen fork to that of an online bank account. Despite the challenges of counting and making commensurable the global warming impact of a myriad of biophysical and societal activities, this desire to communicate a product or service's carbon footprint has sparked complicated carbon calculative practices and enrolled actors at literally every node of multi-scaled and vastly complex global supply chains. Against this landscape, this paper critically analyzes the counting practices that create the ‘e’ in ‘CO2e’. It is shown that, central to these practices are a series of tools, models and databases which, in building upon previous work (Eden, 2012 and Star and Griesemer, 1989) we conceptualize here as ‘boundary objects’. By enrolling everyday actors from farmers to consumers, these objects abstract and stabilize greenhouse gas emissions from their messy material and social contexts into units of CO2e which can then be translated along a product's supply chain, thereby establishing a new currency of ‘everyday supply chain carbon’. However, in making all greenhouse gas-related practices commensurable and in enrolling and stabilizing the transfer of information between multiple actors these objects oversee a process of simplification reliant upon, and subject to, a multiplicity of approximations, assumptions, errors, discrepancies and/or omissions. Further the outcomes of these tools are subject to the politicized and commercial agendas of the worlds they attempt to link, with each boundary actor inscribing different meanings to a product's carbon footprint in accordance with their specific subjectivities, commercial desires and epistemic framings. It is therefore shown that how a boundary object transforms greenhouse gas emissions into units of CO2e, is the outcome of distinct ideologies regarding ‘what’ a product's carbon footprint is and how it should be made legible. These politicized decisions, in turn, inform specific reduction activities and ultimately advance distinct, specific and increasingly durable transition pathways to a low carbon society.

The metaphysics of self in Praśastapāda's differential naturalism

In A Compendium of the Characteristics of Categories (Padārthadharmasaṃgraha) the classical Vaiśeṣika philosopher Praśastapāda (6th c. CE) presents an innovative metaphysics of the self. This article examines the defining metaphysical and axiological features of this conception of self and the dualist categorial schema in which it is located. It shows how this idea of the self, as a reflexive and ethical being, grounds a multinaturalist view of natural order and offers a conception of agency that claims to account for all the reflexive features of human mental and bodily life. Finally, it discusses the ends of self’s reflexivity and of human life as a return to the true self. It argues that at the heart of Praśastapāda’s metaphysics of self is the idea that ethics is metaphysics, and that epistemic practice is ethical practice.

The bubbles or the boiling pot? An ecosystemic approach to culture, environment and quality of life

For the diagnosis and prognosis of the problems of quality of life, a multidisciplinary ecosystemic approach encompasses four dimensions of being-in-the-world, as donors and recipients: intimate, interactive, social and biophysical. Social, cultural and environmental vulnerabilities are understood and dealt with, in different circumstances of space and time, as the conjugated effect of all dimensions of being-in-the-world, as they induce the events (deficits and assets), cope with consequences (desired or undesired) and contribute for change. Instead of fragmented and reduced representations of reality, diagnosis and prognosis of cultural, educational, environmental and health problems considers the connections (assets) and ruptures (deficits) between the different dimensions, providing a planning model to develop and evaluate research, teaching programmes, public policies and field projects. The methodology is participatory, experiential and reflexive; heuristic-hermeneutic processes unveil cultural and epistemic paradigms that orient subject-object relationships; giving people the opportunity to reflect on their own realities, engage in new experiences and find new ways to live better in a better world. The proposal is a creative model for thought and practice, providing many opportunities for discussion, debate and development of holistic projects integrating different scientific domains (social sciences, psychology, education, philosophy, etc.).

PLANETARY NEBULAE IN THE INNER MILKY WAY II: THE BULGE-DISK TRANSITION

In this work, a sample of planetary nebulae located in the inner-disk and bulge of the Galaxy is used in order to find the galactocentric distance which better separates these two populations, from the point of view of abundances. Statistical distance scales are used to study the distribution of abundances across the disk-bulge interface. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is used to find the distance at which the chemical properties of these regions better separate. The results of the statistical analysis indicate that, on the average, the inner population has lower abundances than the outer. Additionally, for the a-element abundances, the inner population does not follow the disk radial gradient towards the galactic center. Based on our results, we suggest a bulge-disk interface at 1.5 kpc, marking the transition between the bulge and inner-disk of the Galaxy as defined by the intermediate mass population.

The Guarguaraz Complex and the Neoproterozoic-Cambrian evolution of southwestern Gondwana: Geochemical signatures and geochronological constraints

The Guarguaraz Complex, in western Argentina, comprises a metasedimentary assemblage, associated with mafic sills and ultramafic bodies intruded by basaltic dikes, which are interpreted as Ordovician dismembered ophiolites. Two kinds of dikes are recognized, a group associated with the metasediments and the other ophiolite-related. Both have N-MORB signatures, with epsilon(Nd) between +3.5 and +8.2, indicating a depleted source, and Grenville model ages between 0.99 and 1.62 Ga. A whole-rock Sm-Nd isochron yielded an age of 655 +/- 76 Ma for these mafic rocks, which is compatible with cianobacteria and acritarchae recognized in the clastic metasedimentary platform sequences, that indicate a Neoproterozoic (Vendian)-Cambrian age of deposition. The Guarguaraz metasedimentary-ophiolitic complex represents, therefore, a remnant of an oceanic basin developed to the west of the Grenville-aged Cuyania terrane during the Neoproterozoic. The southernmost extension of these metasedimentary sequences in Cordon del Portillo might represent part of this platform and not fragments of the Chilenia terrane. An extensional event related to the fragmentation of Rodinia is represented by the mafic and ultramafic rocks. The Devonian docking of Chilenia emplaced remnants of ocean floor and slices of the Cuyania terrane (Las Yaretas Gneisses) in tectonic contact with the Neoproterozoic metasediments, marking the Devonian western border of Gondwana. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On AGM for Non-Classical Logics

The AGM theory of belief revision provides a formal framework to represent the dynamics of epistemic states. In this framework, the beliefs of the agent are usually represented as logical formulas while the change operations are constrained by rationality postulates. In the original proposal, the logic underlying the reasoning was supposed to be supraclassical, among other properties. In this paper, we present some of the existing work in adapting the AGM theory for non-classical logics and discuss their interconnections and what is still missing for each approach.

Computerized identification of motor complications in Parkinson's disease

Objective: To investigate whether spirography-based objective measures are able to effectively characterize the severity of unwanted symptom states (Off and dyskinesia) and discriminate them from motor state of healthy elderly subjects. Background: Sixty-five patients with advanced Parkinson’s disease (PD) and 10 healthy elderly (HE) subjects performed repeated assessments of spirography, using a touch screen telemetry device in their home environments. On inclusion, the patients were either treated with levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel or were candidates for switching to this treatment. On each test occasion, the subjects were asked trace a pre-drawn Archimedes spiral shown on the screen, using an ergonomic pen stylus. The test was repeated three times and was performed using dominant hand. A clinician used a web interface which animated the spiral drawings, allowing him to observe different kinematic features, like accelerations and spatial changes, during the drawing process and to rate different motor impairments. Initially, the motor impairments of drawing speed, irregularity and hesitation were rated on a 0 (normal) to 4 (extremely severe) scales followed by marking the momentary motor state of the patient into 2 categories that is Off and Dyskinesia. A sample of spirals drawn by HE subjects was randomly selected and used in subsequent analysis. Methods: The raw spiral data, consisting of stylus position and timestamp, were processed using time series analysis techniques like discrete wavelet transform, approximate entropy and dynamic time warping in order to extract 13 quantitative measures for representing meaningful motor impairment information. A principal component analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the dimensions of the quantitative measures into 4 principal components (PC). In order to classify the motor states into 3 categories that is Off, HE and dyskinesia, a logistic regression model was used as a classifier to map the 4 PCs to the corresponding clinically assigned motor state categories. A stratified 10-fold cross-validation (also known as rotation estimation) was applied to assess the generalization ability of the logistic regression classifier to future independent data sets. To investigate mean differences of the 4 PCs across the three categories, a one-way ANOVA test followed by Tukey multiple comparisons was used. Results: The agreements between computed and clinician ratings were very good with a weighted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) coefficient of 0.91. The mean PC scores were different across the three motor state categories, only at different levels. The first 2 PCs were good at discriminating between the motor states whereas the PC3 was good at discriminating between HE subjects and PD patients. The mean scores of PC4 showed a trend across the three states but without significant differences. The Spearman’s rank correlations between the first 2 PCs and clinically assessed motor impairments were as follows: drawing speed (PC1, 0.34; PC2, 0.83), irregularity (PC1, 0.17; PC2, 0.17), and hesitation (PC1, 0.27; PC2, 0.77). Conclusions: These findings suggest that spirography-based objective measures are valid measures of spatial- and time-dependent deficits and can be used to distinguish drug-related motor dysfunctions between Off and dyskinesia in PD. These measures can be potentially useful during clinical evaluation of individualized drug-related complications such as over- and under-medications thus maximizing the amount of time the patients spend in the On state.

A Linguistic Analysis of the Written Production of Second Language Learners : The Variation of Article Usage by Adult Chinese Learners of English

This study aims to test Robertson’s lexical transfer principle, which posits that Chinese learners use demonstratives (particularly this) and the numeral one as markers of definiteness and indefiniteness. This is tested by analysing Chinese learners’ written production collected from the Spoken and Written English Corpus of Chinese Learners 2.0 (SWECCL 2.0). The purpose is to understand the variation of article usage by adult Chinese learners of English. More specifically, the study examines to what extent articles, possessive and demonstrative pronouns are used in Chinese learners’ English and how definite and indefinite articles are used by the Chinese learners. Findings suggest that Robertson’s lexical transfer principle was corroborated by the present study. In addition, Chinese learners prefer to use demonstrative determiners, the possessive determiner our, and the numeral one to perform the function of marking definiteness and indefiniteness. In particular, the learners try to use the demonstrative determiners that and this in the anaphoric function instead of the definite article, and the demonstrative determiner those is frequently used in the cataphoric function. What is more, the learners use the numeral one as a marker of indefiniteness, and it is also used as a marker of definiteness in the anaphoric function. Further, the possessive determiner our is used as a marker of definiteness in larger situation uses referring to something unique. To this end, the study is able to show that the definite article is used to perform the function of marking indefiniteness, and in some particular contexts the definite article functions as a Chinese specifier in Chinese learners’ English. Also, the indefinite article is frequently used in quantifier phrases but is rarely used in other functions. There are three main reasons that may explain why Chinese learners use determiners variously. Firstly, the choice of determiners by Chinese learners is influenced by linguistic contexts. Secondly, because of learning strategies, Chinese learners try to ignore the anaphoric function and cataphoric function that they are not yet ready to process in article usage. Thirdly, interlanguage grammar influences the optionality in the use of articles.