Euro-area governance: what to reform and how to do it. Bruegel Policy Brief 2015/01 February 2015

The Issue Reform of the governance of the euro area is being held back by disagreement on what is at the root of the euro area’s woes. Pre-crisis, the euro area suffered from the built-up of financial imbalances, price and wage divergence and an insufficient focus on debt sustainability. During the crisis, the main problems were slow resolution of banking problems, an inadequate fiscal policy stance in 2011-13 for the area as a whole, insufficient domestic demand in surplus countries and slow progress with structural reforms to overcome past divergences. Policy Challenge Euro-area governance needs to move beyond the improvements brought about by banking union and should establish institutions to prevent divergences of wages from productivity. We propose the creation of a European Competitiveness Council composed of national competitiveness councils, and the creation of a Eurosystem of Fiscal Policy (EFP) with two goals: fiscal debt sustainability and an adequate area-wide fiscal position. The EFP should have the right in exceptional circumstances to declare national deficits unlawful and to be able to force parliaments to borrow more so that the euro-area fiscal stance is appropriate. A euro-area chamber of the European Parliament would have to approve such decisions. No additional risk-sharing would be introduced. In the short term, domestic demand needs to be increased in surplus countries, while in deficit countries, structural reform needs to reduce past divergences.

Telecommunications and Internet Services: The digital side of the TTIP. Paper No. 8 in the CEPS-CTR project ‘TTIP in the Balance’ and CEPS Special Report No. 112/July, 17 July 2015

In the overall negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the digital chapter appears to be growing in importance. This is due to several factors, including the recent Datagate scandal that undermined trust between the negotiating parties and led to calls to suspend the US-EU Safe Harbour agreement as well as the furious debate currently ongoing in both legal systems on key issues such as policies to encourage broadband infrastructure deployment, network neutrality policies and the application of competition policy in cyberspace. This paper explores the current divergences between the two legal systems on these key issues and discusses possible scenarios for the ultimate agreement to be reached in the TTIP: from a basic, minimal agreement (which would essentially include e-labelling and e-accessibility measures) to more ambitious scenarios on network neutrality, competition rules, privacy and interoperability measures.

The National Constituent Assembly of Tunisia and Civil Society Dynamics. EUSpring Working Paper No. 2, 8 July 2015

The Tunisian constitution of 27 January 2014 was deemed essentially compatible with international human rights principles and standards. These were adopted at the outcome of a dual process, which was underway both inside the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) and outside it, between the NCA and civil society stakeholders. Three successive drafts fell considerably short of expectations (6 August 2012, 14 December 2012 and 22 April 2013). The fourth draft (1 June 2013) was still fraught with 20 or so fundamental divergences. These were resolved, thanks to the National Dialogue in cooperation with the ad hoc “consensus commission” (lajnet tawafuqat) within the NCA, which is chaired by Mustapha Ben Jaafar (President of the NCA). The final text was overwhelmingly adopted on 26 January 2014 by 200 votes, with 12 against and four abstentions. It was promulgated on 10 February.

Squaring the cycle: capital flows, financial cycles, and macro-prudential policy in the euro area. Bruegel Working Paper 2015/14, November 2015

• Before the financial and economic crisis, monetary policy unification and interest rate convergence resulted in the divergence of euroarea countries’ financial cycles. This divergence is deeply rooted in the financial integration spurred by currency union and strongly correlated with intra-euro area capital flows. Macro-prudential policy will need to deal with potentially divergent financial cycles, while catering for potential cross-border spillovers from domestic policies, which domestic authorities have little incentive to internalise. • The current framework is unfit to deal effectively with these challenges. The European Central Bank should be responsible for consistent and coherent application of macro-prudential policy, with appropriate divergences catering for national differences in financial conditions. The close link between domestic financial cycles and intra-euro area capital flows raises the question of whether macro-prudential policy in the euro area can be compatible with free flows of capital. Financial cycle divergence had its counterpart in the build-up of macroeconomic imbalances, so effective implementation of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure would support and strengthen macro-prudential policy.

Automatic Fiscal Stabiliser: Make it happen! EPC Discussion Paper, 2 May 2016

The eurozone crisis triggered a whole new series of innovations in EU economic governance in order to make the Union more resilient for the next economic downswing. But one of the more persistent issues are the socio-economic divergences between member states, identified by the Five Presidents’ Report as a major problem in the functioning of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Debates took place in recent years about automatic stabilisers, and more specifically about the possibility of introducing an unemployment insurance within the EMU. While the need for some form of fiscal risk-sharing has become a dominant view in expert circles, there has been much less progress among the main political parties and stakeholders. In this study, Regula Hess and László Andor analyse the political feasibility of the adoption of an automatic fiscal stabiliser (AFS) for the eurozone by evaluating actors’ positions towards three distinctive proposals: 1) cyclical shock insurance, 2) reinsurance, 3) a European basic unemployment insurance; they included an empirical case study of France and Germany as the most relevant players within the intergovernmental bargaining constellation. Although the authors realise the current political context makes the adoption of an AFS improbable, Hess and Andor encourage stakeholders to further pursue the discussion, as windows of opportunities can open at any time, and even give some suggestions on what the parameters of the most feasible proposal might be.

Politique étrangère suisse

Début février, le peuple a accepté l'initiative « Contre l'immigration de masse », ce qui a été un des sujets les plus discutés lors des rencontres bilatérales avec les pays voisins et d'autres pays européens. - Lors de sa présidence de l'OSCE, Didier Burkhalter a mis l'accent sur le futur de la jeunesse, mais également sur la promotion de la paix dans l'Europe de l'Est. - Après de nombreuses divergences, les Chambres fédérales ont finalement adopté la nouvelle loi sur les Suisses de l'étranger. - Les compétences du Conseil fédéral en matière de conclusion de traités internationaux ont été restreintes. - Le parlement a voté en faveur de la réintroduction du contrôle aux frontières pour une durée de six mois. - Plusieurs arrêtés fédéraux ont été adoptés en vue d'améliorer et de développer l'acquis Schengen et celui de Dublin/Eurodac. - Après avoir été adopté par les deux chambres, l'accord de libre-échange avec la Chine est entré en vigueur le 1er juillet 2014. - Plusieurs conventions ont été signées en vue d'éviter les doubles impositions.

Quaternary refugia of the sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.): an extended palynological approach

Knowledge about the glacial refugia of the thermophilous European Castanea sativa Mill. (sweet chestnut) is still inadequate. Its original range of distribution has been masked by strong human impact. Moreover, under natural conditions the species was probably admixed with other taxa (such as Quercus, Fraxinus, Fagus, Tilia) and thus possibly represented by low percentages in pollen records. In this paper we try to overcome the difficulties related to the scarcity and irregularity of chestnut pollen records by considering 1471 sites and extending the palynological approach to develop a Castanea refugium probability index (IRP), aimed at detecting possible chestnut refugia where chestnuts survived during the last glaciation. The results are in close agreement with the current literature on the refugia of other thermophilous European trees. The few divergences are most probably due to the large amount of new data integrated in this study, rather than to fundamental disagreements about data and data interpretation. The main chestnut refugia are located in the Transcaucasian region, north-western Anatolia, the hinterland of the Tyrrhenian coast from Liguria to Lazio along the Apennine range, the region around Lago di Monticchio (Monte Vulture) in southern Italy, and the Cantabrian coast on the Iberian peninsula. Despite the high likelihood of Castanea refugia in the Balkan Peninsula and north-eastern Italy (Colli Euganei, Monti Berici, Emilia-Romagna) as suggested by the IRP, additional palaeobotanical investigations are needed to assess whether these regions effectively sheltered chestnut during the last glaciation. Other regions, such as the Isère Département in France, the region across north-west Portugal and Galicia, and the hilly region along the Mediterranean coast of Syria and Lebanon were classified as areas of medium refugium probability. Our results reveal an unexpected spatial richness of potential Castanea refugia. It is likely that other European trees had similar distribution ranges during the last glaciation. It is thus conceivable that shelter zones with favourable microclimates were probably more numerous and more widely dispersed across Europe than so far assumed. In the future, more attention should be paid to pollen traces of sporadic taxa thought to have disappeared from a given area during the last glacial and post-glacial period.

Age determination of three sediment cores

A total of five sediment cores from three sites, the Arctic Ocean, the Fram Strait and the Greenland Sea, yielded evidence for geomagnetic reversal excursions and associated strong lows in relative palaeointensity during oxygen isotope stages 2 and 3. A general similarity of the obtained relative palaeointensity curves to reference data can be observed. However, in the very detail, results from this high-resolution study differ from published records in a way that the prominent Laschamp excursion is clearly characterized by a significant field recovery when reaching the steepest negative inclinations, whereas only the N-R and R-N transitions are associated with the lowest values. Two subsequent excursions also reach nearly reversed inclinations but without any field recovery at that state. A total of 41 accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C ages appeared to allow a better age determination of these three directional excursions and related relative palaeointensity variations. However, although the three sites yielded more or less consistent chronological as well as palaeomagnetic results a comparison to another site, PS2644 in the Iceland Sea, revealed significant divergences in the ages of the geomagnetic field excursions of up to 4 ka even on basis of uncalibrated AMS 14C ages. This shift to older 14C ages cannot be explained by a time-transgressive character of the excursions, because the distance between the sites is small when compared with the size of and the distance to the geodynamo in the Earth's outer core. The most likely explanation is a difference of reservoir ages and/or mixing with old 14C-depleted CO2 from glacier ice expelled from Greenland at site PS2644.

(Table 1) Occurrences of Epimeria georgiana species complex (Amphipoda) in the Weddel and Scotia Sea

DNA barcoding revealed four well-supported clades among amphipod specimens that keyed out to Epimeria georgiana Schellenberg, 1931, three clades with specimens from the southern Scotia Arc and one clade with specimens from the Weddell Sea. Detailed morphological investigations of sequenced specimens were conducted, through light and scanning electron microscopy. High magnification (500-2,000 fold) revealed features such as comb-scales on the first antenna and trich bearing pits on the fourth coxal plate to be similar for all specimens in the four clades. Consistent microstructure character differences in the Weddell Sea specimens combined with high genetic distances (COI divergence>20%) allowed the description of Epimeria angelikae, a species new to science. Specimens of E. georgiana in the other three COI clades from the Scotia Arc were morphologically indistinguishable. Representative specimens of clade A are also illustrated in detail. Our results on the high genetic divergences in epimeriid amphipods support the theory of the southern Scotia Arc being a centre of Antarctic diversification.

Molecular phylogeny and biogeography of the dung beetle genus Temnoplectron Westwood (Scarabaeidae: Scarabaeinae) from Australia’s wet tropics

The landscape of the Australian Wet Tropics can be described as islands of montane rainforest Surrounded by warmer or more xeric habitats. Historical glaciation cycles have caused expansion and contraction of these rainforest islands leading to consistent patterns of genetic divergence within species of vertebrates. To explore whether this dynamic history has promoted speciation in endemic and diverse groups Of insects, we used a combination of mtDNA sequencing and morphological characters to estimate relationships and the tempo of divergence among Australian representatives of the dung beetle genus Temnoplectron. This phylogenetic hypothesis shares a number of well-supported clades with a previously published phylogenetic hypothesis based on morphological data. though statistical support for several nodes is weak. Sister species relationships well-supported in both tree topologies. and a tree obtained by combining the two data sets. suggest that speciation has mostly been allopatric. We identify a number of speciation barriers, which coincide with phylogeographic breaks found in vertebrate species. Large sequence divergences between species emphasize that speciation events are ancient (pre-Pleistocene). The flightless, rainforest species appear to have speciated rapidly. but also in the distant past. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

No more free beer tomorrow? Economic policy and outcomes in Australia and New Zealand since 1984

There are no controlled experiments in macroeconomic policy, nor in systematic programs of microeconomic reform, but a comparison between New Zealand and Australia over the period since 1984 provides as close an approach to such an experiment as is ever likely to be possible. From quite similar starting points the two countries pursued liberal reform programs that differed sharply, mainly as a result of exogenous differences in constitutional structures and the personal styles of the central actors. Australia followed a more cautious, piecemeal, consensus-based approach, whereas New Zealand, in contrast, adopted a radical, rapid, 'purist' platform. The NZ reform package was generally seen by contemporary commentators as representing a 'textbook' model for best practice reform. However, Australia since 1984 has performed much better than New Zealand, whose per capita GDP growth indeed ranked at or near the bottom of the OECD. In this paper, we assess a variety of explanations for the divergences in policies and outcomes.

Understanding Isolation and Change in Island Human Populations through a study of Indigenous Cultural Patterns in the Gulf of Carpentaria

This paper presents a set of hypotheses to explain the cultural differences between Aboriginal people of the North and South Wellesley Islands, Gulf of Carpentaria and to characterise the relative degree and nature of their isolation and cultural change over a 10,000-year time-scale. This opportunity to study parallelisms and divergences in the cultural and demographic histories of fisher-hunter-gatherers arises from the comparison of three distinct cultural groupings: (a) the Ganggalida of the mainland, (b) the Lardil and Yangkaal of the North Wellesley Islands, and (c) the Kaiadilt of the South Wellesley Islands. Despite occupying similar island environments and despite their languages being as closely related as for example, the West Germanic languages, there are some major differences in cultural, economic and social organization as well as striking genetic differences between the North and South Wellesley populations. This paper synthesizes data from linguistics, anthropology, archaeology, genetics and environmental science to present hypotheses of how these intriguing differences were generated, and what we might learn about early processes of marine colonization and cultural change from the Wellesley situation.

O PAPEL DO SINDICATO NA QUALIFICAÇÃO DA MÃO-DE-OBRA: SINDICATO-CIDADÃO

Este trabalho discute a importância de uma nova perspectiva em defesa dos interesses dos trabalhadores para os sindicatos no Brasil, o sindicato-cidadão. O sindicalismo no Brasil nasceu envolvido por um regime capitalista, sofrendo com isso um processo ideológico particular. Em um País em que o Estado por anos - atualmente também - manteve sob o seu controle indireto a maioria dos sindicatos, os embates mais significativos se fizeram de forma inexpressiva, causando em muitos casos a perda por parte dos trabalhadores na constante luta entre capital e trabalho. Essa perda não se reflete somente em questões financeiras, mas sim, e mais importante ainda, em perdas de desenvolvimento do trabalhador em seu nível técnico e mais preocupante em seu nível social. Procurando entender a participação das entidades sindicais na recuperação da força do trabalhador é que se propôs este trabalho, analisando os programas de qualificação do governo geridos por órgãos de caráter sindical. Foram examinados os dados do programa PLANFOR, PNQ e Caravana do Trabalho do Governo do Estado de São Paulo e também os dados disponibilizados pelo Instituto de Estudos e Pesquisas do Setor Energético IEPE, como órgão gerador dos programas de qualificação desenvolvidos e financiados pelo Estado com recursos do FAT. Esta análise visa detalhar, por meio de uma pesquisa qualitativa descritiva, as necessidades levantadas pelos programas do Governo e também dos programas de qualificação profissional aplicados pelo IEPE, além de uma entrevista em profundidade com três presidentes de entidades sindicais. A coleta de dados deu-se através de dados secundários provenientes de pesquisa documental e bibliográfica em fontes públicas. Com este levantamento buscou-se analisar se os programas atendem as reais necessidades dos indivíduos e mais, se além de qualificar tecnicamente estas pessoas, se estes programas fomentam noções de cidadania. Foi possível entender que existe divergência quanto ao real objetivo do sindicato-cidadão perante os entrevistados, tornando possivelmente vulneráveis as ações de capacitação aplicadas tanto pelo governo, quanto pelo sindicato, o que torna dificultoso alcançar o objetivo maior a que se propõe o sindicato-cidadão, de fomentar a inserção social através da qualificação.(AU)

DIVULGAÇÃO CIENTÍFICA NAS REVISTAS CIÊNCIA HOJE, SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN BRASIL E SUPERINTERESSANTE: ESTUDO COMPARATIVO

Estudo comparativo que analisa a divulgação científica (DC) praticada pelas revistas Ciência Hoje (CH), Scientific American Brasil (SAB) e Superinteressante (SI), apontando convergências e divergências entre as três publicações. Objetiva-se analisar como as formas de construção textual e o uso de ilustrações nas matérias e nos artigos de capa das revistas CH, SAB e SI podem contribuir ou interferir de maneira efetiva na DC que praticam. Para tanto, são delineados cinco pressupostos básicos: (1) as publicações de análise priorizam nas capas temas pertencentes às Ciências Básicas (CB) em detrimento das Ciências Humanas e Sociais (CHS); (2) no campo amplo das CB há preferência, nas capas das revistas, por temas relacionados à saúde; (3) as temáticas abordadas nas capas das revistas CH, SAB e SI não são, em geral, coincidentes entre si, pois não seguem uma lógica de matérias quentes ; (4) o uso freqüente de elementos explicativos, termos figurados, fontes de informação diversificadas e citações diretas nas construções textuais das matérias e dos artigos de capa das publicações, bem como o uso de ilustrações devidamente contextualizadas, contribuem para tornar os textos mais inteligíveis; (5) as revistas CH, SAB e SI, embora consideradas revistas de DC, apresentam níveis diferenciados de divulgação, em função do perfil de seus leitores. Em consonância com esses pressupostos, são objetivos específicos: a) identificar, dentro das duas amplas categorias (CB e CHS), os temas mais explorados, reunindo-os em subcategorias para identificar mais afinidade / proximidade entre eles; b) examinar, através das formas de construção textual e do uso das ilustrações nas matérias e nos artigos de capa, os critérios utilizados pelas publicações para divulgar ciência e tecnologia (C&T). Para responder os parâmetros estabelecidos nos objetivos apresentados, a metodologia inclui questionário aplicado aos editores das publicações investigadas e análise de conteúdo (AC) da amostra selecionada, que engloba 19 matérias / artigos de capa das revistas CH, SAB e SI, escolhidos entre julho de 2009 e junho de 2010. Os dados coletados e devidamente discutidos permitem confirmar os pressupostos enunciados, vez que, em termos gerais, é evidente que a DC praticada pelas três revistas apresenta mais divergências do que convergências. Isto possibilita estabelecer níveis distintos de divulgação, manifestos na forma como constroem os textos e como utilizam as ilustrações, com maior dificuldade em SAB e CH e com teor mais simplificado em SI.

DIVERGÊNCIAS E CONVERGÊNCIAS ENTRE A COMUNICAÇÃO PRIMÁRIA E A COMUNICAÇÃO SECUNDÁRIA NA DIVULGAÇÃO DO CÂNCER DE MAMA

Este estudo investiga as convergências e as divergências na comunicação primária e na comunicação secundária do câncer de mama. Nós usamos um esquema interpretativo fornecido pela Análise de Enquadramento, Agenda Setting, Teoria do Aprendizado Social, Difusão de Inovações, Semiótica e conceito de Novidade na Ciência e no Jornalismo, para argumentar que cientistas e jornalistas comunicam as novidades da Ciência de modos diversos. Também tivemos como uma proposta secundária traçar um panorama histórico da Comunicação da Saúde, e sua evolução, considerando que a Comunicação empreendeu um esforço para legitimar um espaço de encontro com a Saúde, afirmando uma área de aplicação de teorias, princípios e técnicas comunicacionais, com o objetivo preciso de difundir e compartilhar informação, conhecimentos e práticas que contribuam para melhorar os sistemas de saúde e o bem-estar das populações. Através da análise dos dados de periódicos científicos e jornalísticos que divulgam o câncer de mama, nós encontramos apoio significante para nossas predições. As implicações destas diferenças entre a comunicação primária (interpares) e a comunicação secundária (público leigo) para a comunicação da saúde são discutidas, às vezes apresentando-se como convergências, às vezes como divergências. Quando bem esclarecidas e compreendidas, fazem avançar a Comunicação da Saúde, obtendo resultados positivos no bem-estar das populações, considerando que a origem das doen ças está, fundamentalmente, onde se entrelaçam o biológico e o social.(AU)