Calibrating Wireless Sensor Network Simulation Models with Real-World Experiments

This paper studies the energy-efficiency and service characteristics of a recently developed energy-efficient MAC protocol for wireless sensor networks in simulation and on a real sensor hardware testbed. This opportunity is seized to illustrate how simulation models can be verified by cross-comparing simulation results with real-world experiment results. The paper demonstrates that by careful calibration of simulation model parameters, the inevitable gap between simulation models and real-world conditions can be reduced. It concludes with guidelines for a methodology for model calibration and validation of sensor network simulation models.

Morphology–elasticity relationships using decreasing fabric information of human trabecular bone from three major anatomical locations

With improving clinical CT scanning technology, the accuracy of CT-based finite element (FE) models of the human skeleton may be ameliorated by an enhanced description of apparent level bone mechanical properties. Micro-finite element (μFE) modeling can be used to study the apparent elastic behavior of human cancellous bone. In this study, samples from the femur, radius and vertebral body were investigated to evaluate the predictive power of morphology–elasticity relationships and to compare them across different anatomical regions. μFE models of 701 trabecular bone cubes with a side length of 5.3 mm were analyzed using kinematic boundary conditions. Based on the FE results, four morphology–elasticity models using bone volume fraction as well as full, limited or no fabric information were calibrated for each anatomical region. The 5 parameter Zysset–Curnier model using full fabric information showed excellent predictive power with coefficients of determination ( r2adj ) of 0.98, 0.95 and 0.94 of the femur, radius and vertebra data, respectively, with mean total norm errors between 14 and 20%. A constant orthotropy model and a constant transverse isotropy model, where the elastic anisotropy is defined by the model parameters, yielded coefficients of determination between 0.90 and 0.98 with total norm errors between 16 and 25%. Neglecting fabric information and using an isotropic model led to r2adj between 0.73 and 0.92 with total norm errors between 38 and 49%. A comparison of the model regressions revealed minor but significant (p<0.01) differences for the fabric–elasticity model parameters calibrated for the different anatomical regions. The proposed models and identified parameters can be used in future studies to compute the apparent elastic properties of human cancellous bone for homogenized FE models.

Bifurcation and singularity analysis of a molecular network for the induction of long-term memory.

Withdrawal reflexes of the mollusk Aplysia exhibit sensitization, a simple form of long-term memory (LTM). Sensitization is due, in part, to long-term facilitation (LTF) of sensorimotor neuron synapses. LTF is induced by the modulatory actions of serotonin (5-HT). Pettigrew et al. developed a computational model of the nonlinear intracellular signaling and gene network that underlies the induction of 5-HT-induced LTF. The model simulated empirical observations that repeated applications of 5-HT induce persistent activation of protein kinase A (PKA) and that this persistent activation requires a suprathreshold exposure of 5-HT. This study extends the analysis of the Pettigrew model by applying bifurcation analysis, singularity theory, and numerical simulation. Using singularity theory, classification diagrams of parameter space were constructed, identifying regions with qualitatively different steady-state behaviors. The graphical representation of these regions illustrates the robustness of these regions to changes in model parameters. Because persistent protein kinase A (PKA) activity correlates with Aplysia LTM, the analysis focuses on a positive feedback loop in the model that tends to maintain PKA activity. In this loop, PKA phosphorylates a transcription factor (TF-1), thereby increasing the expression of an ubiquitin hydrolase (Ap-Uch). Ap-Uch then acts to increase PKA activity, closing the loop. This positive feedback loop manifests multiple, coexisting steady states, or multiplicity, which provides a mechanism for a bistable switch in PKA activity. After the removal of 5-HT, the PKA activity either returns to its basal level (reversible switch) or remains at a high level (irreversible switch). Such an irreversible switch might be a mechanism that contributes to the persistence of LTM. The classification diagrams also identify parameters and processes that might be manipulated, perhaps pharmacologically, to enhance the induction of memory. Rational drug design, to affect complex processes such as memory formation, can benefit from this type of analysis.

Transient simulations of the carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands: from the Last Glacial Maximum to the 21st century

The development of northern high-latitude peatlands played an important role in the carbon (C) balance of the land biosphere since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). At present, carbon storage in northern peatlands is substantial and estimated to be 500 ± 100 Pg C (1 Pg C = 1015 g C). Here, we develop and apply a peatland module embedded in a dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model (LPX-Bern 1.0). The peatland module features a dynamic nitrogen cycle, a dynamic C transfer between peatland acrotelm (upper oxic layer) and catotelm (deep anoxic layer), hydrology- and temperature-dependent respiration rates, and peatland specific plant functional types. Nitrogen limitation down-regulates average modern net primary productivity over peatlands by about half. Decadal acrotelm-to-catotelm C fluxes vary between −20 and +50 g C m−2 yr−1 over the Holocene. Key model parameters are calibrated with reconstructed peat accumulation rates from peat-core data. The model reproduces the major features of the peat core data and of the observation-based modern circumpolar soil carbon distribution. Results from a set of simulations for possible evolutions of northern peat development and areal extent show that soil C stocks in modern peatlands increased by 365–550 Pg C since the LGM, of which 175–272 Pg C accumulated between 11 and 5 kyr BP. Furthermore, our simulations suggest a persistent C sequestration rate of 35–50 Pg C per 1000 yr in present-day peatlands under current climate conditions, and that this C sink could either sustain or turn towards a source by 2100 AD depending on climate trajectories as projected for different representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways.

Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets

Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments1 places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond2, 3, 4. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise5, ocean acidification6, 7 and net primary production on land8, 9. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies10, climate sensitivity11 and carbon cycle feedbacks12, 13 along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community14, 15, 16, 17 to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.

A review of dendrogeomorphological research applied to flood risk analysis in Spain

Over the last forty years, applying dendrogeomorphology to palaeoflood analysis has improved estimates of the frequency and magnitude of past floods worldwide. This paper reviews the main results obtained by applying dendrogeomorphology to flood research in several case studies in Central Spain. These dendrogeomorphological studies focused on the following topics: (1) anatomical analysis to understand the physiological response of trees to flood damage and improve sampling efficiency; (2) compiling robust flood chronologies in ungauged mountain streams, (3) determining flow depth and estimating flood discharge using two-dimensional hydraulic modelling, and comparing them with other palaeostage indicators; (4) calibrating hydraulic model parameters (i.e. Manning roughness); and (5) implementing stochastic-based, cost–benefit analysis to select optimal mitigation measures. The progress made in these areas is presented with suggestions for further research to improve the applicability of dendrogeochronology to palaeoflood studies. Further developments will include new methods for better identification of the causes of specific types of flood damage to trees (e.g. tilted trees) or stable isotope analysis of tree rings to identify the climatic conditions associated with periods of increasing flood magnitude or frequency.

A new methodological protocol for the use of dendrogeomorphological data in flood risk analysis

Dendrogeomorphology uses information sources recorded in the roots, trunks and branches of trees and bushes located in the fluvial system to complement (or sometimes even replace) systematic and palaeohydrological records of past floods. The application of dendrogeomorphic data sources and methods to palaeoflood analysis over nearly 40 years has allowed improvements to be made in frequency and magnitude estimations of past floods. Nevertheless, research carried out so far has shown that the dendrogeomorphic indicators traditionally used (mainly scar evidence), and their use to infer frequency and magnitude, have been restricted to a small, limited set of applications. New possibilities with enormous potential remain unexplored. New insights in future research of palaeoflood frequency and magnitude using dendrogeomorphic data sources should: (1) test the application of isotopic indicators (16O/18O ratio) to discover the meteorological origin of past floods; (2) use different dendrogeomorphic indicators to estimate peak flows with 2D (and 3D) hydraulic models and study how they relate to other palaeostage indicators; (3) investigate improved calibration of 2D hydraulic model parameters (roughness); and (4) apply statistics-based cost–benefit analysis to select optimal mitigation measures. This paper presents an overview of these innovative methodologies, with a focus on their capabilities and limitations in the reconstruction of recent floods and palaeofloods.

Analyzing diffuse scattering with supercomputers

Two new approaches to quantitatively analyze diffuse diffraction intensities from faulted layer stacking are reported. The parameters of a probability-based growth model are determined with two iterative global optimization methods: a genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). The results are compared with those from a third global optimization method, a differential evolution (DE) algorithm [Storn & Price (1997). J. Global Optim. 11, 341–359]. The algorithm efficiencies in the early and late stages of iteration are compared. The accuracy of the optimized parameters improves with increasing size of the simulated crystal volume. The wall clock time for computing quite large crystal volumes can be kept within reasonable limits by the parallel calculation of many crystals (clones) generated for each model parameter set on a super- or grid computer. The faulted layer stacking in single crystals of trigonal three-pointedstar- shaped tris(bicylco[2.1.1]hexeno)benzene molecules serves as an example for the numerical computations. Based on numerical values of seven model parameters (reference parameters), nearly noise-free reference intensities of 14 diffuse streaks were simulated from 1280 clones, each consisting of 96 000 layers (reference crystal). The parameters derived from the reference intensities with GA, PSO and DE were compared with the original reference parameters as a function of the simulated total crystal volume. The statistical distribution of structural motifs in the simulated crystals is in good agreement with that in the reference crystal. The results found with the growth model for layer stacking disorder are applicable to other disorder types and modeling techniques, Monte Carlo in particular.

Comparison of Mixed and Kinematic Uniform Boundary Conditions in Homogenized Elasticity of Femoral Trabecular Bone Using Microfinite Element Analyses

Mechanical properties of human trabecular bone play an important role in age-related bone fragility and implant stability. Micro-finite element (microFE) analysis allows computing the apparent elastic properties of trabecular bone biopsies, but the results depend on the type of applied boundary conditions (BCs). In this study, 167 femoral trabecular cubic biopsies with a side length of 5.3 mm were analyzed using microFE analysis to compare their stiffness systematically with kinematic uniform boundary conditions (KUBCs) and periodicity-compatible mixed uniform boundary conditions (PMUBCs). The obtained elastic constants were then used in the volume fraction and fabric-based orthotropic Zysset-Curnier model to identify their respective model parameters. As expected, PMUBCs lead to more compliant apparent elastic properties than KUBCs, especially in shear. The differences in stiffness decreased with bone volume fraction and mean intercept length. Unlike KUBCs, PMUBCs were sensitive to heterogeneity of the biopsies. The Zysset-Curnier model predicted apparent elastic constants successfully in both cases with adjusted coefficients of determination of 0.986 for KUBCs and 0.975 for PMUBCs. The role of these boundary conditions in finite element analyses of whole bones and bone-implant systems will need to be investigated in future work.

POLYCHOTOMOUS LOGISTIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS (HYPERTENSION, CORONARY HEART DISEASE)

The history of the logistic function since its introduction in 1838 is reviewed, and the logistic model for a polychotomous response variable is presented with a discussion of the assumptions involved in its derivation and use. Following this, the maximum likelihood estimators for the model parameters are derived along with a Newton-Raphson iterative procedure for evaluation. A rigorous mathematical derivation of the limiting distribution of the maximum likelihood estimators is then presented using a characteristic function approach. An appendix with theorems on the asymptotic normality of sample sums when the observations are not identically distributed, with proofs, supports the presentation on asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, two applications of the model are presented using data from the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program, a prospective, population-based, randomized trial of treatment for hypertension. The first application compares the risk of five-year mortality from cardiovascular causes with that from noncardiovascular causes; the second application compares risk factors for fatal or nonfatal coronary heart disease with those for fatal or nonfatal stroke. ^

Analysis of interval -censored events in hypertension studies: Evaluation of treatment of coronary heart disease

Many statistical studies feature data with both exact-time and interval-censored events. While a number of methods currently exist to handle interval-censored events and multivariate exact-time events separately, few techniques exist to deal with their combination. This thesis develops a theoretical framework for analyzing a multivariate endpoint comprised of a single interval-censored event plus an arbitrary number of exact-time events. The approach fuses the exact-time events, modeled using the marginal method of Wei, Lin, and Weissfeld, with a piecewise-exponential interval-censored component. The resulting model incorporates more of the information in the data and also removes some of the biases associated with the exclusion of interval-censored events. A simulation study demonstrates that our approach produces reliable estimates for the model parameters and their variance-covariance matrix. As a real-world data example, we apply this technique to the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program (SHEP) clinical trial, which features three correlated events: clinical non-fatal myocardial infarction, fatal myocardial infarction (two exact-time events), and silent myocardial infarction (one interval-censored event). ^

Dome C age scale EDC1 for ice core EDC99

A tentative age scale (EDC1) for the last 45 kyr is established for the new 788 m EPICA Dome C ice core using a simple ice flow model. The age of volcanic eruptions, the end of the Younger Dryas event, and the estimated depth and age of elevated 10Be, about 41 kyr ago were used to calibrate the model parameters. The uncertainty of EDC1 is estimated to ±10 yr for 0 to 700 yr BP, up to ±200 yr back to 10 kyr BP, and up to ±2 kyr back to 41 kyr BP. The age of the air in the bubbles is calculated with a firn densification model. In the Holocene the air is about 2000 yr younger than the ice and about 5500 yr during the last glacial maximum.

Framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems

Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship-ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. The model can be run with the use of GeNIe software package. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.

(Table A1) Chemical composition of abyssal peridotites from ODP Hole 153-920

The compatibility of vanadium (V) during mantle melting is a function of oxygen fugacity (fO2): at high fO2's, V becomes more incompatible. The prospects and limitations of using the V content of peridotites as a proxy for paleo-fO2 at the time of melt extraction were investigated here by assessing the uncertainties in V measurements and the sensitivity of V as a function of degree of melt extracted and fO2. V-MgO and V-Al2O3 systematics were found to be sensitive to fO2 variations, but consideration of the uncertainties in measurements and model parameters indicates that V is sensitive only to relative fO2 differences greater than ~2 log units. Post-Archean oceanic mantle peridotites, as represented by abyssal peridotites and obducted massif peridotites, have V-MgO and -Al2O3 systematics that can be modeled by 1.5 GPa melting between FMQ - 3 and FMQ - 1. This is consistent with fO2's of the mantle source for mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORBs) as determined by the Fe3+ activity of peridotitic minerals and basaltic glasses. Some arc-related peridotites have slightly lower V for a given degree of melting than oceanic mantle peridotites, and can be modeled by 1.5 GPa melting at fO2's as high as FMQ. However, the majority of arc-related peridotites have V-MgO systematics overlapping that of oceanic mantle peridotites, suggesting that although some arc mantle may melt under slightly oxidizing conditions, most arc mantle does not. The fact that thermobarometrically determined fO2's in arc peridotites and lavas can be significantly higher than that inferred from V systematics, suggests that V retains a record of the fO2 during partial melting, whereas the activity of Fe3+ in arc peridotitic minerals and lavas reflect subsequent metasomatic overprints and magmatic differentiation/emplacement processes, respectively. Peridotites associated with middle to late Archean cratonic mantle are characterized by highly variable V-MgO systematics. Tanzanian cratonic peridotites have V systematics indistinguishable from post-Archean oceanic mantle and can be modeled by 3 GPa partial melting at ~FMQ - 3. In contrast, many South African and Siberian cratonic peridotites have much lower V contents for a given degree of melting, suggesting at first glance that partial melting occurred at high fO2's. More likely, however, their unusually low V contents for a given degree of melting may be artifacts of excess orthopyroxene, a feature that pervades many South African and Siberian peridotites but not the Tanzanian peridotites. This is indicated by the fact that the V contents of South African and Siberian peridotites are correlated with increases in SiO2 content, generating data arrays that cannot be modeled by partial melting but can instead be generated by the addition of orthopyroxene through processes unrelated to primary melt depletion. Correction for orthopyroxene addition suggests that the South African and Siberian peridotites have V-MgO systematics similar to those of Tanzanian peridotites. Thus, if the Tanzanian peridotites represent the original partial melting residues, and if the South African and Siberian peridotites have been modified by orthopyroxene addition, then there is no indication that Archean cratonic mantle formed under fO2's significantly greater than that of modern oceanic mantle. Instead, the fO2's inferred from the V systematics in these three cratonic peridotite suites are within range of modern oceanic mantle. This also suggests that the transition from a highly reducing mantle in equilibrium with a metallic core to the present oxidized state must have occurred by late Archean times.

Bathymetric map of Heron Reef, Australia, derived from airborne hyperspectral data at 1 m resolution

A simple method for efficient inversion of arbitrary radiative transfer models for image analysis is presented. The method operates by representing the shape of the function that maps model parameters to spectral reflectance by an adaptive look-up tree (ALUT) that evenly distributes the discretization error of tabulated reflectances in spectral space. A post-processing step organizes the data into a binary space partitioning tree that facilitates an efficient inversion search algorithm. In an example shallow water remote sensing application, the method performs faster than an implementation of previously published methodology and has the same accuracy in bathymetric retrievals. The method has no user configuration parameters requiring expert knowledge and minimizes the number of forward model runs required, making it highly suitable for routine operational implementation of image analysis methods. For the research community, straightforward and robust inversion allows research to focus on improving the radiative transfer models themselves without the added complication of devising an inversion strategy.