Control in distribution networks with demand side management

The way in which electricity networks operate is going through a period of significant change. Renewable generation technologies are having a growing presence and increasing penetrations of generation that are being connected at distribution level. Unfortunately, a renewable energy source is most of the time intermittent and needs to be forecasted. Current trends in Smart grids foresee the accommodation of a variety of distributed generation sources including intermittent renewable sources. It is also expected that smart grids will include demand management resources, widespread communications and control technologies required to use demand response are needed to help the maintenance in supply-demand balance in electricity systems. Consequently, smart household appliances with controllable loads will be likely a common presence in our homes. Thus, new control techniques are requested to manage the loads and achieve all the potential energy present in intermittent energy sources. This thesis is focused on the development of a demand side management control method in a distributed network, aiming the creation of greater flexibility in demand and better ease the integration of renewable technologies. In particular, this work presents a novel multi-agent model-based predictive control method to manage distributed energy systems from the demand side, in presence of limited energy sources with fluctuating output and with energy storage in house-hold or car batteries. Specifically, here is presented a solution for thermal comfort which manages a limited shared energy resource via a demand side management perspective, using an integrated approach which also involves a power price auction and an appliance loads allocation scheme. The control is applied individually to a set of Thermal Control Areas, demand units, where the objective is to minimize the energy usage and not exceed the limited and shared energy resource, while simultaneously indoor temperatures are maintained within a comfort frame. Thermal Control Areas are overall thermodynamically connected in the distributed environment and also coupled by energy related constraints. The energy split is performed based on a fixed sequential order established from a previous completed auction wherein the bids are made by each Thermal Control Area, acting as demand side management agents, based on the daily energy price. The developed solutions are explained with algorithms and are applied to different scenarios, being the results explanatory of the benefits of the proposed approaches.

Medium access control design for distributed opportunistic radio networks

Existing wireless networks are characterized by a fixed spectrum assignment policy. However, the scarcity of available spectrum and its inefficient usage demands for a new communication paradigm to exploit the existing spectrum opportunistically. Future Cognitive Radio (CR) devices should be able to sense unoccupied spectrum and will allow the deployment of real opportunistic networks. Still, traditional Physical (PHY) and Medium Access Control (MAC) protocols are not suitable for this new type of networks because they are optimized to operate over fixed assigned frequency bands. Therefore, novel PHY-MAC cross-layer protocols should be developed to cope with the specific features of opportunistic networks. This thesis is mainly focused on the design and evaluation of MAC protocols for Decentralized Cognitive Radio Networks (DCRNs). It starts with a characterization of the spectrum sensing framework based on the Energy-Based Sensing (EBS) technique considering multiple scenarios. Then, guided by the sensing results obtained by the aforementioned technique, we present two novel decentralized CR MAC schemes: the first one designed to operate in single-channel scenarios and the second one to be used in multichannel scenarios. Analytical models for the network goodput, packet service time and individual transmission probability are derived and used to compute the performance of both protocols. Simulation results assess the accuracy of the analytical models as well as the benefits of the proposed CR MAC schemes.

A systematic methodology to analyse the performance and design configurations of business interoperability in cooperative industrial networks

This thesis proposes a methodology for modelling business interoperability in a context of cooperative industrial networks. The purpose is to develop a methodology that enables the design of cooperative industrial network platforms that are able to deliver business interoperability and the analysis of its impact on the performance of these platforms. To achieve the proposed objective, two modelling tools have been employed: the Axiomatic Design Theory for the design of interoperable platforms; and Agent-Based Simulation for the analysis of the impact of business interoperability. The sequence of the application of the two modelling tools depends on the scenario under analysis, i.e. whether the cooperative industrial network platform exists or not. If the cooperative industrial network platform does not exist, the methodology suggests first the application of the Axiomatic Design Theory to design different configurations of interoperable cooperative industrial network platforms, and then the use of Agent-Based Simulation to analyse or predict the business interoperability and operational performance of the designed configurations. Otherwise, one should start by analysing the performance of the existing platform and based on the achieved results, decide whether it is necessary to redesign it or not. If the redesign is needed, simulation is once again used to predict the performance of the redesigned platform. To explain how those two modelling tools can be applied in practice, a theoretical modelling framework, a theoretical Axiomatic Design model and a theoretical Agent-Based Simulation model are proposed. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology and/or to validate the proposed theoretical models, a case study regarding a Portuguese Reverse Logistics cooperative network (Valorpneu network) and a case study regarding a Portuguese construction project (Dam Baixo Sabor network) are presented. The findings of the application of the proposed methodology to these two case studies suggest that indeed the Axiomatic Design Theory can effectively contribute in the design of interoperable cooperative industrial network platforms and that Agent-Based Simulation provides an effective set of tools for analysing the impact of business interoperability on the performance of those platforms. However, these conclusions cannot be generalised as only two case studies have been carried out. In terms of relevance to theory, this is the first time that the network effect is addressed in the analysis of the impact of business interoperability on the performance of networked companies and also the first time that a holistic approach is proposed to design interoperable cooperative industrial network platforms. Regarding the practical implications, the proposed methodology is intended to provide industrial managers a management tool that can guide them easily, and in practical and systematic way, in the design of configurations of interoperable cooperative industrial network platforms and/or in the analysis of the impact of business interoperability on the performance of their companies and the networks where their companies operate.

Migrant networks and migrant intentions to return

Social ties are potentially an important determinant of migrants’ intention to return to their home country, and yet this topic has not been addressed in the existing economics literature on international migration. This study examines the absolute and relative importance of migrant social networks both at destination and at origin. We base our research on experimental data from Batista and Narciso (2013)1. By defining networks according to different characteristics of their members and migrant return intentions with respect to three different time horizons, we are able to dissect the network effect into its components. After controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causality biases we find that network at home seems to be the most important determinant of the migrant’s intention to return home within five and ten years.

Assessing the role of social networks on migrant labor market outcomes: Evidence from a representative immigrant survey

What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

Predicting market movement with Artificial Neural Networks

This paper presents an application of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to the prediction of stock market direction in the US. Using a multilayer perceptron neural network and a backpropagation algorithm for the training process, the model aims at learning the hidden patterns in the daily movement of the S&P500 to correctly identify if the market will be in a Trend Following or Mean Reversion behavior. The ANN is able to produce a successful investment strategy which outperforms the buy and hold strategy, but presents instability in its overall results which compromises its practical application in real life investment decisions.

Inspecção de infraestruturas ferroviárias. Avaliação não destrutiva com o radar de prospecção.

As infraestruturas ferroviárias são cada vez mais, essenciais para o serviço de mobilidade de pessoas e bens em curtas e em longas distâncias. A notável evolução da indústria e da tecnologia impulsionou o desenvolvimento socioeconómico dos países e por sua vez, a densidade das redes de transporte. Com base nesta expansão as entidades gestoras dos caminhos-de-ferro têm como função oferecer cada vez melhores serviços de transporte e, por conseguinte, garantir um elevado nível de segurança e conforto aos passageiros conjugando-os, claro, com os recursos que dispõem. Hoje em dia, as noções de manutenção e conservação das vias férreas estão directamente ligadas com a segurança dos utilizadores. Daqui resulta que as inspeções das vias são cada vez mais importantes para o bom funcionamento das mesmas. Assim, o objectivo desta dissertação consiste em propor uma metodologia para uma melhor avaliação das infraestruturas ferroviárias em tempo real. Ou seja, o intuito será de diminuir o tempo de inspecção das vias férreas, com base na antecipada caracterização dos parâmetros eletromagnéticos dos materiais ferroviários, em especial, do balastro contaminado com solo. Pretendeu-se desenvolver ensaios em laboratório que simulem as várias hipóteses de contaminação do balastro que podem existir numa via tradicional, variando o nível de contaminação do balastro e o teor em água do solo. Posteriormente, através da medição em contínuo da camada de balastro, com o apoio do radar de prospecção, GPR, irão ser estudadas as constantes dieléctricas dos diferentes casos de estudo. A metodologia em estudo procura estabelecer uma relação entre os dados obtidos em laboratório, através do radar de prospecção, e a medição dos parâmetros geométricos de via numa via em serviço, analisando, principalmente, as zonas de deterioração. A utilização do GPR mostrou ser uma ferramenta eficiente para avaliação da condição da via, permitindo observar a evolução ao longo do tempo da contaminação do balastro.

Using artificial neural networks to generate trading signals for crude oil, copper and gold futures

In this thesis, a feed-forward, back-propagating Artificial Neural Network using the gradient descent algorithm is developed to forecast the directional movement of daily returns for WTI, gold and copper futures. Out-of-sample back-test results vary, with some predictive abilities for copper futures but none for either WTI or gold. The best statistically significant hit rate achieved was 57% for copper with an absolute return Sharpe Ratio of 1.25 and a benchmarked Information Ratio of 2.11.

Assessing the role of social networks on migrant labor market outcomes: Evidence from a representative immigrant survey

What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

The value creation radar applied to the space engineering sector

This case study illustrates the application of the Value Creation Radar (VCR) to SenSyF, an Earth Observation (EO) system which was developed by Deimos Engenharia S.A. (DME), the Portuguese affiliate of Elecnor Deimos. It describes how a team of consultants adopted the VCR in order to find new market applications for SenSyF, selected the one with the highest potential, and defined a path to guarantee a sustainable market launch. This case study highlights the main challenges of bringing a technology-driven company closer to the market in the pursuit of long-term sustainability, while not compromising its technological capabilities

A new credit monitoring framework for agents' networks

The purpose of this work is to develop a practicable approach for Telecom firms to manage the credit risk exposition to their commercial agents’ network. Particularly it will try to approach the problem of credit concession to clients’ from a corporation perspective and explore the particular scenario of agents that are part of the commercial chain of the corporation and therefore are not end-users. The agents’ network that served as a model for the presented study is composed by companies that, at the same time, are both clients and suppliers of the Telecommunication Company. In that sense the credit exposition analysis must took into consideration all financial fluxes, both inbound and outbound. The current strain on the Financial Sector in Portugal, and other peripheral European economies, combined with the high leverage situation of most companies, generates an environment prone to credit default risk. Due to these circumstances managing credit risk exposure is becoming increasingly a critical function for every company Financial Department. The approach designed in the current study combined two traditional risk monitoring tools: credit risk scoring and credit limitation policies. The objective was to design a new credit monitoring framework that is more flexible, uses both external and internal relationship history to assess risk and takes into consideration commercial objectives inside the agents’ network. Although not explored at length, the blueprint of a Credit Governance model was created for implementing the new credit monitoring framework inside the telecom firm. The Telecom Company that served as a model for the present work decided to implement the new Credit Monitoring framework after this was presented to its Executive Commission.

The global radar applied to the precision farming sector

The case describes the development of MyFARM’s internationalization plan, a service of Deimos Engenharia, under the GloCal Radar. This space engineering company hired Lisbon Consulting Company to undertake the project to overcome its lack of market orientation. The consultants’ analysis revealed Stevens County, Kansas, as the market with the highest potential for MyFARM. A suitable entry strategy and adaptation of the service for the local market was proposed. The case culminates with the Board of Directors discussing the viability of implementing the consultants’ recommendations to start diversifying their sources of revenue streams.

Exploring chemical conversions in metabolic networks by tracing atoms transitions

Dissertação de mestrado em Bioinformática

Uso de imagens de radar para o cálculo da produção primária de plantas aquáticas nas várzeas da Amazônia

A área da planície de inundação da Amazônia é estimada em 300 000km² e sua produtividade primária em 1,17 x 10(14) g C yr-1. Deste total de área e produtividade, estimativas sugerem que 43% e 62%, respectivamente, são atribuídos às plantas aquáticas. Estas estimativas variam de acordo com o pulso de inundação. Por exemplo, durante o período de seca as plantas terrestres (herbáceas) geralmente ocupam áreas que apresentam plantas aquáticas na cheia. A área e a produtividade destes ecossistemas são informações essenciais para a compreensão da dinâmica biogeoquímica da Amazônia. Imagens de satélites (radar) combinadas com amostragem de campo foram utilizadas para estimar a biomassa e mapear a área de cobertura de plantas aquáticas emergentes para calcular a produção primária de plantas aquáticas na várzea do baixo Amazonas. A combinação de bandas C e L forneceu a melhor correlação (r=0,82) e um ponto de saturação de biomassa intermediário (620 gm-2) para estimar biomassa aérea. O método de segmentação e classificação por região foi utilizado para classificar combinações de bandas C e L para cada período de nível de água, e forneceu uma precisão de mapeamento maior que 95% para determinação espacial de áreas cobertas por plantas aquáticas. Combinando a distribuição espacial de plantas aquáticas, o modelo para estimativa de biomassa aérea e a porcentagem de biomassa submersa, estimou-se espacialmente uma produção primária líquida anual de 1.9x10(12) g C yr-1 (±28%) para as plantas aquáticas em uma área de 394km².