Valuing Flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Power Plant

In this paper we analyze the valuation of options stemming from the flexibility in an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Power Plant. First we use as a base case the opportunity to invest in a Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) Power Plant, deriving the optimal investment rule as a function of fuel price and the remaining life of the right to invest. Additionally, the analytical solution for a perpetual option is obtained. Second, the valuation of an operating IGCC Power Plant is studied, with switching costs between states and a choice of the best operation mode. The valuation of this plant serves as a base to obtain the value of the option to delay an investment of this type. Finally, we derive the value of an opportunity to invest either in a NGCC or IGCC Power Plant, that is, to choose between an inflexible and a flexible technology, respectively. Numerical computations involve the use of one- and two-dimensional binomial lattices that support a mean-reverting process for the fuel prices. Basic parameter values refer to an actual IGCC power plant currently in operation.

Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Valoración de la garantía de los planes de pensiones en España

Este trabajo ha sido presentado en la Universidad del País Vasco y en el VII Encuentro de Economía Aplicada.

Privatización de pensiones y provisión de garantías: una exploración del caso español

Los sistemas de pensiones públicas de reparto con prestación definida a lo largo del mundo se están convirtiendo a planes de aportación definida capitalizados, donde los agentes eligen sus carteras de acciones y bonos. A fin de hacer más atractivas al público estas reformas, los gobiernos típicamente han proporcionado garantías que reducen la exposición de los individuos a los riesgos de inversión, por ejemplo, una garantía de prestación mínima. En este trabajo se analiza una conversión hipotética del actual sistema español de reparto a un modelo de estas características. El valor de la garantía de prestación mínima se aproxima utilizando datos representativos de la situación española. Con objeto de controlar el coste de esta garantía, se exploran algunas técnicas de gestión de riesgos. La práctica más común, a saber, la sobrecapitalización, es bastante ineficaz. Precisamente por ello, después se presentan dos alternativas: (a) una garantía sobre una cartera estandarizada, y (b) un impuesto contingente (dependiente del estado de la naturaleza) sobre los rendimientos. Los cálculos indican que los compromisos no capitalizados pueden reducirse significativamente, e incluso por completo, bajo ambos enfoques, con tasas de aportación relativamente modestas.

Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto

Coal-fired power plants may enjoy a significant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. Still, this advantage may erode or even turn into disadvantage depending on CO2 emission allowance price. This price will presumably rise in both the Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012) and the first post-Kyoto years. Thus, in a carbon-constrained environment, coal plants face financial risks arising in their profit margins, which in turn hinge on their so-called "clean dark spread". These risks are further reinforced when the price of the output electricity is determined by natural gas-fired plants' marginal costs, which differ from coal plants' costs. We aim to assess the risks in coal plants' margins. We adopt parameter values estimated from empirical data. These in turn are derived from natural gas and electricity markets alongside the EU ETS market where emission allowances are traded. Monte Carlo simulation allows to compute the expected value and risk profile of coal-based electricity generation. We focus on the clean dark spread in both time periods under different future scenarios in the allowance market. Specifically, bottom 5% and 10% percentiles are derived. According to our results, certain future paths of the allowance price may impose significant risks on the clean dark spread obtained by coal plants.

Copia de una carta remitida por el obispo Mateo Múgica al Presidente del Gobierno Vasco en el exilio.

Fecha: 19-3-1946 (>1970 copia) / Unidad de instalación: Carpeta 45 - Expediente 2-24 / Nº de pág.: 3 (mecanografiadas)

A short in-frame deletion in NTRK1 tyrosine kinase domain caused by a novel splice site mutation in a patient with congenital insensitivity to pain with anhidrosis

Background: Congenital insensitivity to pain with anhidrosis (CIPA) is a rare autosomal recessive genetic disease characterized by the lack of reaction to noxious stimuli and anhidrosis. It is caused by mutations in the NTRK1 gene, which encodes the high affinity tyrosine kinase receptor I for Neurotrophic Growth Factor (NGF). -- Case Presentation: We present the case of a female patient diagnosed with CIPA at the age of 8 months. The patient is currently 6 years old and her psychomotor development conforms to her age (RMN, SPECT and psychological study are in the range of normality). PCR amplification of DNA, followed by direct sequencing, was used to investigate the presence of NTRK1 gene mutations. Reverse transcriptase (RT)-PCR amplification of RNA, followed by cloning and sequencing of isolated RT-PCR products was used to characterize the effect of the mutations on NTRK1 mRNA splicing. The clinical diagnosis of CIPA was confirmed by the detection of two splice-site mutations in NTRK1, revealing that the patient was a compound heterozygote at this gene. One of these alterations, c.574+1G > A, is located at the splice donor site of intron 5. We also found a second mutation, c.2206-2 A > G, not previously reported in the literature, which is located at the splice acceptor site of intron 16. Each parent was confirmed to be a carrier for one of the mutations by DNA sequencing analysis. It has been proposed that the c.574+1G > A mutation would cause exon 5 skipping during NTRK1 mRNA splicing. We could confirm this prediction and, more importantly, we provide evidence that the novel c.2206-2A > G mutation also disrupts normal NTRK1 splicing, leading to the use of an alternative splice acceptor site within exon 17. As a consequence, this mutation would result in the production of a mutant NTRK1 protein with a seven aminoacid in-frame deletion in its tyrosine kinase domain. --Conclusions: We present the first description of a CIPA-associated NTRK1 mutation causing a short interstitial deletion in the tyrosine kinase domain of the receptor. The possible phenotypical implications of this mutation are discussed.

SEM and EDS Characterisation of Layering TiOx Growth onto the Cutting Tool Surface in Hard Drilling Processes of Ti-Al-V Alloys

10 p.

Las barreras a la integración interfuncional y su relación con el rendimiento de los nuevos productos en las empresas innovadoras españolas

[ES] En este trabajo se analiza la relación entre la integración interfuncional y el rendimiento de los nuevos productos en una muestra de empresas innovadoras españolas. Las percepciones de los directivos de I+D, marketing, producción y otras áreas permiten comprobar que la falta de apoyo de la alta dirección y la distancia física entre áreas son dos barreras significativas a la integración interfuncional. Además, los directivos perciben que la integración interfuncional está relacionada con el rendimiento del programa de desarrollo de nuevos productos. Los resultados apoyan la mayoría de las hipótesis planteadas y son coherentes con las investigaciones previas sobre el tema. También se plantean las implicaciones que para la dirección tienen estos resultados y algunas líneas de investigación futuras.

Desarrollo de nuevos productos: caso Grupo «Industrias Alimentarias de Navarra»

Una versión preliminar de este caso fue presentada como ponencia en el «Second European Conference on Management of Technology» (EUROMOT), celebrado en septiembre de 2006 en Birmingham.

Regional Entrepreneurial Scorecard

[ES] Este trabajo analiza la relación entre el desarrollo regional y la creación de empresas desde una perspectiva micro del enfoque institucional, a partir de los stakeholders más relevantes que intervienen en el proceso. La contribución de los emprendedores al crecimiento económico regional viene siendo objeto de especial atención por los poderes públicos, para lo que se necesita un sistema de referencias que permita evaluar la adecuación de los programas públicos de fomento de la actividad emprendedora.

Las políticas públicas de la Unión Europea ante el despertar económico del gigante chino

x, 386 p.: graf.

Análisis de una experiencia de formación permanente en el deporte escolar a través de un programa de habilidades sociales

546 p.:il.

Una historia de España audiovisual y joseantoniana

[EN] The paper analyses a very interesting documentary film about the ancient history of Spain from a franquist, more specifically, falangist point of view (“Nueva Visión de la Historia). It was based on a book about the history of Spain written by a member of Falange, the fascist group in Spain, Antonio Almagro, and was intended as a formative instrument for the youth in the late forties or early fifties. We know only the episodes dealing with Ancient Spain (probably the only ones shot), 25 minutes in all, and it represents an outstanding example of an hyper-nationalistic and hyper-catholic perspective of Spanish history. It also shows a very sympathetic image of José Antonio, the leader of Falange, but, remarkably enough, not of Franco. The film also includes a “theoretical” Introduction about the notion of History.

Using network mesures to test evolved NK-landscapes

In this paper we empirically investigate which are the structural characteristics that can help to predict the complexity of NK-landscape instances for estimation of distribution algorithms. To this end, we evolve instances that maximize the estimation of distribution algorithm complexity in terms of its success rate. Similarly, instances that minimize the algorithm complexity are evolved. We then identify network measures, computed from the structures of the NK-landscape instances, that have a statistically significant difference between the set of easy and hard instances. The features identified are consistently significant for different values of N and K.