Simulation of air traffic controllers' behaviour using the operator choice model

The Operator Choice Model (OCM) was developed to model the behaviour of operators attending to complex tasks involving interdependent concurrent activities, such as in Air Traffic Control (ATC). The purpose of the OCM is to provide a flexible framework for modelling and simulation that can be used for quantitative analyses in human reliability assessment, comparison between human computer interaction (HCI) designs, and analysis of operator workload. The OCM virtual operator is essentially a cycle of four processes: Scan Classify Decide Action Perform Action. Once a cycle is complete, the operator will return to the Scan process. It is also possible to truncate a cycle and return to Scan after each of the processes. These processes are described using Continuous Time Probabilistic Automata (CTPA). The details of the probability and timing models are specific to the domain of application, and need to be specified using domain experts. We are building an application of the OCM for use in ATC. In order to develop a realistic model we are calibrating the probability and timing models that comprise each process using experimental data from a series of experiments conducted with student subjects. These experiments have identified the factors that influence perception and decision making in simplified conflict detection and resolution tasks. This paper presents an application of the OCM approach to a simple ATC conflict detection experiment. The aim is to calibrate the OCM so that its behaviour resembles that of the experimental subjects when it is challenged with the same task. Its behaviour should also interpolate when challenged with scenarios similar to those used to calibrate it. The approach illustrated here uses logistic regression to model the classifications made by the subjects. This model is fitted to the calibration data, and provides an extrapolation to classifications in scenarios outside of the calibration data. A simple strategy is used to calibrate the timing component of the model, and the results for reaction times are compared between the OCM and the student subjects. While this approach to timing does not capture the full complexity of the reaction time distribution seen in the data from the student subjects, the mean and the tail of the distributions are similar.

Mixtures of probabilistic principal component analysers

Principal component analysis (PCA) is one of the most popular techniques for processing, compressing and visualising data, although its effectiveness is limited by its global linearity. While nonlinear variants of PCA have been proposed, an alternative paradigm is to capture data complexity by a combination of local linear PCA projections. However, conventional PCA does not correspond to a probability density, and so there is no unique way to combine PCA models. Previous attempts to formulate mixture models for PCA have therefore to some extent been ad hoc. In this paper, PCA is formulated within a maximum-likelihood framework, based on a specific form of Gaussian latent variable model. This leads to a well-defined mixture model for probabilistic principal component analysers, whose parameters can be determined using an EM algorithm. We discuss the advantages of this model in the context of clustering, density modelling and local dimensionality reduction, and we demonstrate its application to image compression and handwritten digit recognition.

Probabilistic principal component analysis

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a ubiquitous technique for data analysis and processing, but one which is not based upon a probability model. In this paper we demonstrate how the principal axes of a set of observed data vectors may be determined through maximum-likelihood estimation of parameters in a latent variable model closely related to factor analysis. We consider the properties of the associated likelihood function, giving an EM algorithm for estimating the principal subspace iteratively, and discuss the advantages conveyed by the definition of a probability density function for PCA.

Probabilistic principal component analysis

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a ubiquitous technique for data analysis and processing, but one which is not based upon a probability model. In this paper we demonstrate how the principal axes of a set of observed data vectors may be determined through maximum-likelihood estimation of parameters in a latent variable model closely related to factor analysis. We consider the properties of the associated likelihood function, giving an EM algorithm for estimating the principal subspace iteratively, and discuss the advantages conveyed by the definition of a probability density function for PCA.

Integrated component scheduling models for chip shooter machines

This paper focuses on minimizing printed circuit board (PCB) assembly time for a chipshootermachine, which has a movable feeder carrier holding components, a movable X–Y table carrying a PCB, and a rotary turret with multiple assembly heads. The assembly time of the machine depends on two inter-related optimization problems: the component sequencing problem and the feeder arrangement problem. Nevertheless, they were often regarded as two individual problems and solved separately. This paper proposes two complete mathematical models for the integrated problem of the machine. The models are verified by two commercial packages. Finally, a hybrid genetic algorithm previously developed by the authors is presented to solve the model. The algorithm not only generates the optimal solutions quickly for small-sized problems, but also outperforms the genetic algorithms developed by other researchers in terms of total assembly time.

Grouping and the pitch of a mistuned fundamental component:effects of applying simultaneous multiple mistunings to the other harmonics

Mistuning a harmonic produces an exaggerated change in its pitch. This occurs because the component becomes inconsistent with the regular pattern that causes the other harmonics (constituting the spectral frame) to integrate perceptually. These pitch shifts were measured when the fundamental (F0) component of a complex tone (nominal F0 frequency = 200 Hz) was mistuned by +8% and -8%. The pitch-shift gradient was defined as the difference between these values and its magnitude was used as a measure of frame integration. An independent and random perturbation (spectral jitter) was applied simultaneously to most or all of the frame components. The gradient magnitude declined gradually as the degree of jitter increased from 0% to ±40% of F0. The component adjacent to the mistuned target made the largest contribution to the gradient, but more distant components also contributed. The stimuli were passed through an auditory model, and the exponential height of the F0-period peak in the averaged summary autocorrelation function correlated well with the gradient magnitude. The fit improved when the weighting on more distant channels was attenuated by a factor of three per octave. The results are consistent with a grouping mechanism that computes a weighted average of periodicity strength across several components. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of catalytic pyrolysis of cassava rhizome by principal component analysis

Rhizome of cassava plants (Manihot esculenta Crantz) was catalytically pyrolysed at 500 °C using analytical pyrolysis–gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (Py–GC/MS) method in order to investigate the relative effect of various catalysts on pyrolysis products. Selected catalysts expected to affect bio-oil properties were used in this study. These include zeolites and related materials (ZSM-5, Al-MCM-41 and Al-MSU-F type), metal oxides (zinc oxide, zirconium (IV) oxide, cerium (IV) oxide and copper chromite) catalysts, proprietary commercial catalysts (Criterion-534 and alumina-stabilised ceria-MI-575) and natural catalysts (slate, char and ashes derived from char and biomass). The pyrolysis product distributions were monitored using models in principal components analysis (PCA) technique. The results showed that the zeolites, proprietary commercial catalysts, copper chromite and biomass-derived ash were selective to the reduction of most oxygenated lignin derivatives. The use of ZSM-5, Criterion-534 and Al-MSU-F catalysts enhanced the formation of aromatic hydrocarbons and phenols. No single catalyst was found to selectively reduce all carbonyl products. Instead, most of the carbonyl compounds containing hydroxyl group were reduced by zeolite and related materials, proprietary catalysts and copper chromite. The PCA model for carboxylic acids showed that zeolite ZSM-5 and Al-MSU-F tend to produce significant amounts of acetic and formic acids.

Combining data driven programming with component based software development:with applications in geovisualisation and dynamic data driven application systems

Software development methodologies are becoming increasingly abstract, progressing from low level assembly and implementation languages such as C and Ada, to component based approaches that can be used to assemble applications using technologies such as JavaBeans and the .NET framework. Meanwhile, model driven approaches emphasise the role of higher level models and notations, and embody a process of automatically deriving lower level representations and concrete software implementations. The relationship between data and software is also evolving. Modern data formats are becoming increasingly standardised, open and empowered in order to support a growing need to share data in both academia and industry. Many contemporary data formats, most notably those based on XML, are self-describing, able to specify valid data structure and content, and can also describe data manipulations and transformations. Furthermore, while applications of the past have made extensive use of data, the runtime behaviour of future applications may be driven by data, as demonstrated by the field of dynamic data driven application systems. The combination of empowered data formats and high level software development methodologies forms the basis of modern game development technologies, which drive software capabilities and runtime behaviour using empowered data formats describing game content. While low level libraries provide optimised runtime execution, content data is used to drive a wide variety of interactive and immersive experiences. This thesis describes the Fluid project, which combines component based software development and game development technologies in order to define novel component technologies for the description of data driven component based applications. The thesis makes explicit contributions to the fields of component based software development and visualisation of spatiotemporal scenes, and also describes potential implications for game development technologies. The thesis also proposes a number of developments in dynamic data driven application systems in order to further empower the role of data in this field.

A Generic model for the design and analysis of production systems

This dissertation studies the process of operations systems design within the context of the manufacturing organization. Using the DRAMA (Design Routine for Adopting Modular Assembly) model as developed by a team from the IDOM Research Unit at Aston University as a starting point, the research employed empirically based fieldwork and a survey to investigate the process of production systems design and implementation within four UK manufacturing industries: electronics assembly, electrical engineering, mechanical engineering and carpet manufacturing. The intention was to validate the basic DRAMA model as a framework for research enquiry within the electronics industry, where the initial IDOM work was conducted, and then to test its generic applicability, further developing the model where appropriate, within the other industries selected. The thesis contains a review of production systems design theory and practice prior to presenting thirteen industrial case studies of production systems design from the four industry sectors. The results and analysis of the postal survey into production systems design are then presented. The strategic decisions of manufacturing and their relationship to production systems design, and the detailed process of production systems design and operation are then discussed. These analyses are used to develop the generic model of production systems design entitled DRAMA II (Decision Rules for Analysing Manufacturing Activities). The model contains three main constituent parts: the basic DRAMA model, the extended DRAMA II model showing the imperatives and relationships within the design process, and a benchmark generic approach for the design and analysis of each component in the design process. DRAMA II is primarily intended for use by researchers as an analytical framework of enquiry, but is also seen as having application for manufacturing practitioners.

Interaction of quinolone antibiotics with the human intestinal CACO-2 cell model

The transport of a group of quinolone antibiotics across the human intestinal model, Caco-2 cells, was investigated. It was found that the transport of the quinolones generally correlated with the lipophilicity of the compounds, indicating the passive diffusional transcellular processes were involved. However, it was observed that the transport in both directions apical-to-basolateral and basolateral-to-apical was not equivalent, and polarised transport occurred. For all the quinolones studied except, BMS-284756-01, it was found that the basolateral-to-apical transport was significantly greater than the apical-to-basolateral transport. This finding suggested that the quinolones underwent a process of active secretion. The pKas and logPs for the quinolones were determined using potentiometric titrations. The measured logP values were compared with those determined using theoretical methods. The theoretical methods for calculating logP including the Moriguchi method correlated poorly with the measured logP values. Further investigations revealed that there may be an active transporter involved in the apical-to-basolateral transport of quinolones as well. This mechanism was sensitive to competing quinolones, but, it was unaffected by the metabolic inhibitor combination of sodium azide (15mM) with 2-deoxy-D-glucose (50mM). The basolateral-to-apical transport of quinolones was found to be sensitive to inhibition by a number of different inhibitors. The metabolic inhibitors, sodium azide (15mM) with 2-deoxy-D-glucose (50mM) and 2,4-dinitrophenol (1mM), were able to reduce the basolateral-to-apical transport of quinolones. A reduction in temperature from 37°C to 2°C caused an 80-fold decrease in the transport of gatifloxacin in both directions, however, this effect was not sufficient to abolish the greater basolateral-to-apical secretion. As with apical-to-basolateral transport, it was found that quinolones competed with gatifloxacin for basolateral-to-apical transport, both ofloxacin (100μM) and norfloxacin (100μM) significantly (P<0.003) decreased the basolateral-to-apical transport of gatifloxacin; however, ciprofloxacin (100μM and 300μM) had no effect. A number of inhibitors of various transport systems were also investigated. It was found that the anion transport inhibitor, probenecid (100 μM) had a significant inhibitory effect on the basolateral-to-apical transport of ciprofloxacin (P=0.039), while the cation transport inhibitor cimetidine (100μM and 500μM) had no effect. The organic anion exchange inhibitor 4,4'diisothiocyanostilbene-2-2' -disulphonic acid DIDS (400μM) also had a significant inhibitory effect (P=O.O 13). The PgP inhibitor and anion exchange inhibitor verapamil (400Mμ) was able to completely abolish the basolateral-to-apical secretion of gatifloxacin and bring it into line with the apical-to-basolateral flux. In conclusion, the apical-to-basolateral and basolateral-toapical transport of quinolones involved an active component. The basolateral-to-apical secretion was abolished by a verapamil (400μM), a bisubstrate for PgP and the anion transporter.

Development of a conceptual model of the soil-moisture-plant sub-system of the hydrological cycle

The soil-plant-moisture subsystem is an important component of the hydrological cycle. Over the last 20 or so years a number of computer models of varying complexity have represented this subsystem with differing degrees of success. The aim of this present work has been to improve and extend an existing model. The new model is less site specific thus allowing for the simulation of a wide range of soil types and profiles. Several processes, not included in the original model, are simulated by the inclusion of new algorithms, including: macropore flow; hysteresis and plant growth. Changes have also been made to the infiltration, water uptake and water flow algorithms. Using field data from various sources, regression equations have been derived which relate parameters in the suction-conductivity-moisture content relationships to easily measured soil properties such as particle-size distribution data. Independent tests have been performed on laboratory data produced by Hedges (1989). The parameters found by regression for the suction relationships were then used in equations describing the infiltration and macropore processes. An extensive literature review produced a new model for calculating plant growth from actual transpiration, which was itself partly determined by the root densities and leaf area indices derived by the plant growth model. The new infiltration model uses intensity/duration curves to disaggregate daily rainfall inputs into hourly amounts. The final model has been calibrated and tested against field data, and its performance compared to that of the original model. Simulations have also been carried out to investigate the effects of various parameters on infiltration, macropore flow, actual transpiration and plant growth. Qualitatively comparisons have been made between these results and data given in the literature.

Development of a probabilistic graphical structure from a model of mental health clinical expertise

This thesis explores the process of developing a principled approach for translating a model of mental-health risk expertise into a probabilistic graphical structure. Probabilistic graphical structures can be a combination of graph and probability theory that provide numerous advantages when it comes to the representation of domains involving uncertainty, domains such as the mental health domain. In this thesis the advantages that probabilistic graphical structures offer in representing such domains is built on. The Galatean Risk Screening Tool (GRiST) is a psychological model for mental health risk assessment based on fuzzy sets. In this thesis the knowledge encapsulated in the psychological model was used to develop the structure of the probability graph by exploiting the semantics of the clinical expertise. This thesis describes how a chain graph can be developed from the psychological model to provide a probabilistic evaluation of risk that complements the one generated by GRiST’s clinical expertise by the decomposing of the GRiST knowledge structure in component parts, which were in turned mapped into equivalent probabilistic graphical structures such as Bayesian Belief Nets and Markov Random Fields to produce a composite chain graph that provides a probabilistic classification of risk expertise to complement the expert clinical judgements

Using architecture models to support the generation and operation of component-based adaptive systems

Modelling architectural information is particularly important because of the acknowledged crucial role of software architecture in raising the level of abstraction during development. In the MDE area, the level of abstraction of models has frequently been related to low-level design concepts. However, model-driven techniques can be further exploited to model software artefacts that take into account the architecture of the system and its changes according to variations of the environment. In this paper, we propose model-driven techniques and dynamic variability as concepts useful for modelling the dynamic fluctuation of the environment and its impact on the architecture. Using the mappings from the models to implementation, generative techniques allow the (semi) automatic generation of artefacts making the process more efficient and promoting software reuse. The automatic generation of configurations and reconfigurations from models provides the basis for safer execution. The architectural perspective offered by the models shift focus away from implementation details to the whole view of the system and its runtime change promoting high-level analysis. © 2009 Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

Modelling e-business processes:a component-based simulation approach

With new and emerging e-business technologies to transform business processes, it is important to understand how those technologies will affect the performance of a business. Will the overall business process be cheaper, faster and more accurate or will a sub-optimal change have been implemented? The use of simulation to model the behaviour of business processes is well established, and it has been applied to e-business processes to understand their performance in terms of measures such as lead-time, cost and responsiveness. This paper introduces the concept of simulation components that enable simulation models of e-business processes to be built quickly from generic e-business templates. The paper demonstrates how these components were devised, as well as the results from their application through case studies.

A collagen IV matrix is required for guinea pig gastric epithelial cell monolayers to provide an optimal model of the stomach surface for biopharmaceutical screening

The surface epithelial cells of the stomach represent a major component of the gastric barrier. A cell culture model of the gastric epithelial cell surface would prove useful for biopharmaceutical screening of new chemical entities and dosage forms. Primary cultures of guinea pig gastric mucous epithelial cells were grown on filter inserts (Transwells®) for 3 days. Tight-junction formation, assessed by transepithelial electrical resistance (TEER) and permeability of mannitol and fluorescein, was enhanced when collagen IV rather than collagen I was used to coat the polycarbonate filter. TEER for cells grown on collagen IV was close to that obtained with intact guinea pig gastric epithelium in vitro. Differentiation was assessed by incorporation of [ 3H]glucosamine into glycoprotein and by activity of NADPH oxidase, which produces superoxide. Both of these measures were greater for cells grown on filters coated with collagen I than for cells grown on plastic culture plates, but no major difference was found between cells grown on collagens I and IV. The proportion of cells, which stained positively for mucin with periodic acid Schiff reagent, was greater than 95% for all culture conditions. Monolayers grown on membranes coated with collagen IV exhibited apically polarized secretion of mucin and superoxide, and were resistant to acidification of the apical medium to pH 3.0 for 30 min. A screen of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs revealed a novel effect of diclofenac and niflumic acid in reversibly reducing permeability by the paracellular route. In conclusion, the mucous cell preparation grown on collagen IV represents a good model of the gastric surface epithelium suitable for screening procedures. © 2005 The Society for Biomolecular Screening.