Strategic mass killings

Since World War II there have been about fifty episodes of large-scale mass killings of civilians and massive forced displacements. They were usually meticulously planned and independent of military goals. We provide a model where conflict onset, conflict intensity and the decision to commit mass killings are all endogenous, with two main goals: (1) to identify the key variables and situations that make mass killings more likely to occur; and (2) to distinguish conditions under which mass killings and military conflict intensity reinforce each other from situations where they are substitute modes of strategic violence. We predict that mass killings are most likely in societies with large natural resources, significant proportionality constraints for rent sharing, low productivity and low state capacity. Further, massacres are more likely in a civil than in an interstate war, as in the latter group sizes matter less for future rents. In non polarized societies there are asymmetric equilibria with only the larger group wanting to engage in massacres. In such settings the smaller group compensates for this by fighting harder in the first place. In this case we can talk of mass killings and fighting efforts to be substitutes. In contrast, in polarized societies either both or none of the groups can be ready to do mass killings in case of victory. Under the "shadow of mass killings" groups fight harder. Hence, in this case massacres and fighting are complements. We also present novel empirical results on the role of natural resources in mass killings and on what kinds of ethnic groups are most likely to be victimized in massacres and forced resettlements, using group level panel data.

Is it redistribution or centralization? On the determinants of government investment in infrastructure

The dilemma efficiency versus equity, together with political partisan interests, has received increasing attention to explain the territorial allocation of investments. However, centralization intended to introduce or reinforce hierarchization in the political system has not been object as of now of empirical analysis. Our main contribution to the literature is providing evidence that meta-political objectives related to the ordering of political power and administration influence regional investment. In this way, we find evidence that network mode’s (roads and railways) investment programs are influenced by the centralization strategy of investing near to the political capital, while investment effort in no-network modes (airports and ports) appears to be positively related to distance. Since investment in surface transportation infrastructures is much higher than that in airports and ports, and taken into account that regions surrounding the political capital are poorer than the average, we suggest that centralization rather than redistribution has been the driver for the concentration of public investment on these regions.

Accounting conservatism and firm investment efficiency

Conservatism, through the timelier recognition of losses in the income statement, is expected to increase firm investment efficiency through three main channels: (1) by decreasing the adverse effect of information asymmetries between outside equity holders and managers, facilitating the monitoring of managerial investment decisions; (2) by increasing managerial incentives to abandon poorly performing projects earlier and to undertake fewer negative net present-value investments; and (3) by facilitating the access to external financing at lower cost. Using a large US sample for the period 1990-2007 we find a negative association between conservatism and measures of over- and under- investment, and a positive association between conservatism and future profitability. This is consistent with firms reporting more conservative numbers investing more efficiently and in more profitable projects. Our results add to a growing stream of literature suggesting that eliminating conservatism from accounting regulatory frameworks may lead to undesirable economic consequences.

Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity

We study a general static noisy rational expectations model where investors have private information about asset payoffs, with common and private components, and about their own exposure to an aggregate risk factor, and derive conditions for existence and uniqueness (or multiplicity) of equilibria. We find that a main driver of the characterization of equilibria is whether the actions of investors are strategic substitutes or complements. This latter property in turn is driven by the strength of a private learning channel from prices, arising from the multidimensional sources of asymmetric information, in relation to the usual public learning channel. When the private learning channel is strong (weak) in relation to the public we have strong (weak) strategic complementarity in actions and potentially multiple (unique) equilibria. The results enable a precise characterization of whether information acquisition decisions are strategic substitutes or complements. We find that the strategic substitutability in information acquisition result obtained in Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) is robust. JEL Classification: D82, D83, G14 Keywords: Rational expectations equilibrium, asymmetric information, risk exposure, hedging, supply information, information acquisition.

Comrades or Culprits? Donor Engagement and Budget Transparency in Aid Dependent Countries

Budget transparency has come to be considered a key aspect of governance. Over the past decade, donors have invested increasing resources in strengthening processes through which budget transparency in developing countries can be enhanced. According to the 2008 Open Budget Index (OBI) Report, however, aid dependency and budget transparency appear to be inversely correlated. This article looks at the role of donor agencies in promoting or preventing budget transparency in aid dependent countries. It analyzes data for a sample of 16 aid-dependent countries included in the OBI, to test some preliminary hypotheses and select six countries for which more detailed findings are then presented. All of these countries have implemented reforms aimed at enhancing budget transparency, with substantial donor support. These, however, often had only limited success, partly because they were not well adapted to the local context, and partly because donors put limited emphasis on improving public access to budget information. Donor efforts were also often offset by other characteristics of donor interventions, namely their fragmentation, lack of transparency, and limited use of program aid modalities such as budget support and pooled sector funding.

IPH response to Phase 2 of the New Strategic Direction for Alcohol and Drugs 2011-2016 (Northern Ireland)

The IPH response to the New Strategic Direction for Alcohol and Drugs questionnaire which has been designed to help stakeholders respond to New Strategic Direction for Alcohol and Drugs Phase 2 (2011-2016) consultation document.

Consideration of health in Strategic Environment Assessment (SEA) on the island of Ireland

This IPH report explores the extent health was incorporated into SEA in a manner which would suggest a good understanding of the many social and economic factors which strongly influence health. The research identifies that a consideration of health is not routinely included in SEAs. There is a need to build capacity and change mindsets in how SEAs are undertaken to more completely factor in the health impacts.

IPH response to Social Investment Fund Consultation

The Social Investment Fund aims to reduce poverty, unemployment and physical deterioration in areas through area based interventions of significant scale which will be delivered in partnership with communities. The fund will encourage communities, statutory agencies, businesses and departments to work together in a coordinated way, reducing duplication, sharing best practice and enhancing provision for the benefits of those communities most in need. IPH calls for a consideration of health to be included in the Social Investment Fund.  Each of the four objectives of the programme will have the potential to positively impact on health by increasing education attainment and skill levels, tackling deprivation, increasing community support and enhancing the physical regeneration of communities.  IPH also call for greater clarification on the links with other area based partnerships.

IPH response to Draft Regional Planning Guidelines for the Greater Dublin Area 2010-2022

The Regional Planning Guidelines (RPG) for the Greater Dublin Area 2010-2022 (draft) is a policy document which aims to direct the future growth of the Greater Dublin Area over the medium to long term and works to implement the strategic planning framework set out in the National Spatial Strategy (NSS) published in 2002.  A series of recommendations have been made to Local Authorities clearly linked to and supporting the national investment in transport, particularly public transport, under Transport 21.  The draft was prepared and agreed for public consultation. The IPH response  to the consultation reports on how the RPG may impact on health and makes recommendations to maximise opportunities for health gain and minimise health loss.

IPH response to the Strategic Review of Health Inequalities in England post 2010

IPH contributed to the Strategic Review of Health Inequalities in England being carried out by Professor Sir Michael Marmot, Chair of the Commission on the Social Determinants of Health.  IPH acknowledges the immense work done by the Review team and welcomes the opportunity to inform its work. We see the review as a vital opportunity to provide a “catalyst for concerted action” not only in England but in its near neighbours in Northern Ireland and Ireland. Health inequalities are rife across the UK and Ireland despite a range of developments in policy and practice designed to create more equal opportunities for health. We commend the approach taken in the Review, which applies scientific rigour and the combined expertise of a number of defined task groups to seek solutions to the vexing challenge of health inequality.

Response to Draft Guidance on Health in Strategic Environmental Assessment

The Institute of Public Health in Ireland welcomes the opportunity to comment on the Draft Guidance on Health in Strategic Environmental Assessment.  Our organisation aims to improve health on the island of Ireland by working to combat health inequalities and influence public policies in favour of health. The Institute applies a holistic model of health which emphasises a wide range of health determinants, including economic, environmental, social and biological factors. Our work is based on the premise that improving health and reducing health inequalities can only be achieved through addressing these broad determinants of health.

New Strategic Direction for Alcohol and Drugs 2006-2011 (NI) - Consultation response

The Institute of Public Health in Ireland welcomes the opportunity to comment on the consultation paper on the New Strategic Direction for Alcohol and Drugs 2006-2011 (NSD). We particularly welcome the approach taken in the strategy, which, from the conceptual base of the Programme Logic Approach, is firmly based on desired outcomes and the pathways leading to them. The Institute aims to improve health in Ireland, North and South by working to combat health inequalities and influence public policies in favour of health. The Institute applies a holistic model of health which emphasises a wide range of social determinants, including economic, environmental, social and biological factors, as well as the health and social services. The Institute’s work is based on the premise that improving health and reducing health inequalities can only be achieved through addressing these broader determinants of health.

IPH response to 'Towards a Childcare Strategy' (Northern Ireland)

The remit of the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) is to promote cooperation for public health between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland in the areas of research and information, capacity building and policy advice. Our approach is to support Departments of Health and their agencies in both jurisdictions, and maximise the benefits of all-island cooperation to achieve practical benefits for people in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Giving every child the best start in life is recognised by governments worldwide as the most effective way to improve life chances and health outcomes.  This is one of IPH’s key strategic action areas in our Business Plan and we endorse the need for early intervention, particularly in tackling health inequalities and improving the health and wellbeing of children in the most disadvantaged communities.  International evidence is increasingly pointing towards investment in the early years as a critical component of any sensible approach to improving population health and tackling health inequalities across the life course (WHO, 2008 and Marmot, 2010).  It is also apparent that Northern Ireland public policy is now reorienting towards achieving better and fairer outcomes in the early years, as demonstrated through the recent draft public health strategy (DHSSPS, 2012a) and the draft early years strategy (Department of Education, 2012).

A Healthier Future: A Strategic Framework for Respiratory Conditions

In Northern Ireland in 2002-03, there were almost 30,000 admissions to hospital for respiratory conditions utilizing over 180,000 bed days and costing almost å£50m. Social security support for people with long term chest and breathing problems amounts to å£26m annually. This framework sets out how with better prevention and self management a reduction in ill health and a contribute to a reduction in avoidable deaths can be achieved. And with better co-ordinated and integrated services more consistent and effective care for those people unfortunate enough to suffer from serious disease can be provided. This in turn will enable services to better respond to the increasing needs of a more elderly population. The document contains a number of recommendations. These include significant service re-organisation and re-design so that the whole system – the primary, community and hospital sectors, provides for a more responsive and effective service to users and carers. This should result in much more of the overall caseload being proactively managed in community and primary care environments allowing scarce hospital capacity to be devoted to the most critical cases. This includes the development of new ways of caring for at risk patients, more effective rehabilitation in the community, improved education and training of professionals and better communication across the community and hospital sectors.