Community Fisheries Development Office (CFDO) strategic plan, January 2004

In October 2000 the government of Cambodia announced a major change in fisheries management policy. The core elements of the new policy are the reduction of fishing lot concession areas by 56%, the broader participation of fishing communities in the management of fisheries and a focus on the efficient, sustainable and equitable use of the living aquatic resources. To facilitate the establishment and development of the Community Fisheries, support and monitor their activities, the Department of Fisheries was authorized1 to establish a Community Fisheries Development Office (CFDO). (Pdf contains 19 pages).

Strategic Votes and Sincere Counterfactuals

The Random Utility Model (RUM) of voting behavior can account for strategic voting by making use of proxy indicators that measure voter incentives to vote strategically. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new method to estimate the RUM in the presence of strategic voters, without having to construct proxy measures of strategic voting incentives. Our method can be used to infer the counterfactual sincere vote of those who vote strategically and provides an estimate of the size of strategic voting. We illustrate the procedure using post-electoral survey data from Spain. Our calculations indicate that strategic voting in Spain is about 2.19 per cent

The IRYSS-COPD appropriateness study: objectives, methodology, and description of the prospective cohort

Background: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often experience exacerbations of the disease that require hospitalization. Current guidelines offer little guidance for identifying patients whose clinical situation is appropriate for admission to the hospital, and properly developed and validated severity scores for COPD exacerbations are lacking. To address these important gaps in clinical care, we created the IRYSS-COPD Appropriateness Study. Methods/Design: The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Methodology was used to identify appropriate and inappropriate scenarios for hospital admission for patients experiencing COPD exacerbations. These scenarios were then applied to a prospective cohort of patients attending the emergency departments (ED) of 16 participating hospitals. Information was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up after admission or discharge home. While complete data were generally available at the time of ED admission, data were often missing at the time of decision making. Predefined assumptions were used to impute much of the missing data. Discussion: The IRYSS-COPD Appropriateness Study will validate the appropriateness criteria developed by the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Methodology and thus better delineate the requirements for admission or discharge of patients experiencing exacerbations of COPD. The study will also provide a better understanding of the determinants of outcomes of COPD exacerbations, and evaluate the equity and variability in access and outcomes in these patients.

Wave Sensor Technologies, St Petersburg, Florida, March 7-9, 2007: workshop proceedings

The Alliance for Coastal Technologies (ACT) convened a workshop on "Wave Sensor Technologies" in St. Petersburg, Florida on March 7-9, 2007, hosted by the University of South Florida (USF) College of Marine Science, an ACT partner institution. The primary objectives of this workshop were to: 1) define the present state of wave measurement technologies, 2) identify the major impediments to their advancement, and 3) make strategic recommendations for future development and on the necessary steps to integrate wave measurement sensors into operational coastal ocean observing systems. The participants were from various sectors, including research scientists, technology developers and industry providers, and technology users, such as operational coastal managers and coastal decision makers. Waves consistently are ranked as a critical variable for numerous coastal issues, from maritime transportation to beach erosion to habitat restoration. For the purposes of this workshop, the participants focused on measuring "wind waves" (i.e., waves on the water surface, generated by the wind, restored by gravity and existing between approximately 3 and 30-second periods), although it was recognized that a wide range of both forced and free waves exist on and in the oceans. Also, whereas the workshop put emphasis on the nearshore coastal component of wave measurements, the participants also stressed the importance of open ocean surface waves measurement. Wave sensor technologies that are presently available for both environments include bottom-mounted pressure gauges, surface following buoys, wave staffs, acoustic Doppler current profilers, and shore-based remote sensing radar instruments. One of the recurring themes of workshop discussions was the dichotomous nature of wave data users. The two separate groups, open ocean wave data users and the nearshore/coastal wave data users, have different requirements. Generally, the user requirements increase both in spatial/temporal resolution and precision as one moves closer to shore. Most ocean going mariners are adequately satisfied with measurements of wave period and height and a wave general direction. However, most coastal and nearshore users require at least the first five Fourier parameters ("First 5"): wave energy and the first four directional Fourier coefficients. Furthermore, wave research scientists would like sensors capable of providing measurements beyond the first four Fourier coefficients. It was debated whether or not high precision wave observations in one location can take the place of a less precise measurement at a different location. This could be accomplished by advancing wave models and using wave models to extend data to nearby areas. However, the consensus was that models are no substitution for in situ wave data.[PDF contains 26 pages]

Reforming state-level coastal management and development policies: strategic retreat as an innovative, proactive and equitable coastal environmental management strategy

Atlantic and Gulf Coast shorelines include some of the most unique and biologically rich ecosystems in the United States that provide immeasurable aesthetic, habitat and economic benefits. Natural coastal ecosystems, however, are under increasing threat from rampant and irresponsible growth and development. Once a boon to local economies, complex natural forces – enhanced by global climate change and sea level rise - are now considered hazards and eroding the very foundation upon which coastal development is based. For nearly a century, beach restoration and erosion control structures have been used to artificially stabilize shorelines in an effort to protect structures and infrastructure. Beach restoration, the import and emplacement of sand on an eroding beach, is expensive, unpredictable, inefficient and may result in long-term environmental impacts. The detrimental environmental impacts of erosion control structures such as sea walls, groins, bulkheads and revetments include sediment deficits, accelerated erosion and beach loss. These and other traditional responses to coastal erosion and storm impacts- along with archaic federal and state policies, subsidies and development incentives - are costly, encourage risky development, artificially increase property values of high-risk or environmentally sensitive properties, reduce the post-storm resilience of shorelines, damage coastal ecosystems and are becoming increasingly unsustainable. Although communities, coastal managers and property owners face increasingly complex and difficult challenges, there is an emerging public, social and political awareness that, without meaningful policy reforms, coastal ecosystems and economies are in jeopardy. Strategic retreat is a sustainable, interdisciplinary management strategy that supports the proactive, planned removal of vulnerable coastal development; reduces risk; increases shoreline resiliency and ensures long term protection of coastal systems. Public policies and management strategies that can overcome common economic misperceptions and promote the removal of vulnerable development will provide state and local policy makers and coastal managers with an effective management tool that concomitantly addresses the economic, environmental, legal and political issues along developed shorelines. (PDF contains 4 pages)

The strategic behavior of rational novices

There is a growing amount of experimental evidence that suggests people often deviate from the predictions of game theory. Some scholars attempt to explain the observations by introducing errors into behavioral models. However, most of these modifications are situation dependent and do not generalize. A new theory, called the rational novice model, is introduced as an attempt to provide a general theory that takes account of erroneous behavior. The rational novice model is based on two central principals. The first is that people systematically make inaccurate guesses when they are evaluating their options in a game-like situation. The second is that people treat their decisions similar to a portfolio problem. As a result, non optimal actions in a game theoretic sense may be included in the rational novice strategy profile with positive weights.

The rational novice model can be divided into two parts: the behavioral model and the equilibrium concept. In a theoretical chapter, the mathematics of the behavioral model and the equilibrium concept are introduced. The existence of the equilibrium is established. In addition, the Nash equilibrium is shown to be a special case of the rational novice equilibrium. In another chapter, the rational novice model is applied to a voluntary contribution game. Numerical methods were used to obtain the solution. The model is estimated with data obtained from the Palfrey and Prisbrey experimental study of the voluntary contribution game. It is found that the rational novice model explains the data better than the Nash model. Although a formal statistical test was not used, pseudo R^2 analysis indicates that the rational novice model is better than a Probit model similar to the one used in the Palfrey and Prisbrey study.

The rational novice model is also applied to a first price sealed bid auction. Again, computing techniques were used to obtain a numerical solution. The data obtained from the Chen and Plott study were used to estimate the model. The rational novice model outperforms the CRRAM, the primary Nash model studied in the Chen and Plott study. However, the rational novice model is not the best amongst all models. A sophisticated rule-of-thumb, called the SOPAM, offers the best explanation of the data.