Sistema fuzzy de suporte a decisão para aplicação de programa de eficiência energética em serrarias

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Simulação da produtividade de cana-de-açúcar nas regiões nordeste e sudeste do Brasil, utilizando o modelo DSSAT

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Modelo de processo participativo de enquadramento aplicado a bacias hidrográficas urbanas: bacia do Tucunduba - PA

O enquadramento de corpos d’água é um instrumento legal do arcabouço da legislação ambiental brasileira contemplado na Política Nacional de Recursos Hídricos, por meio da Lei 9.433/97. A presente dissertação apresenta um modelo de enquadramento participativo aplicado a bacias urbanas, com aplicação na Bacia Hidrográfica do Igarapé Tucunduba, em Belém/PA. A metodologia desenvolvida baseou-se em cinco etapas, que tiveram como base: a pesquisa bibliográfica em fontes diversas; o resgate dos trabalhos já desenvolvidos na bacia que empregaram metodologias informacionais de suporte à decisão; a elaboração do diagnóstico do uso e da ocupação do solo e dos recursos hídricos na bacia hidrográfica; a realização das oficinas de enquadramento com os atores locais; a aplicação do sofware Decision Explore como um Sistema de Suporte a Decisão (SSD), utilizado para organizar os dados gerados nas oficinas; o resgate dos trabalhos sobre qualidade da água realizados na bacia do Tucunduba, e por fim a definição da proposta de enquadramento participativo, com base na a classificação atual do corpo hídrico e nos usos futuros para a bacia do Tucunduba. Com base no reconhecimento de campo, nas discussões sobre os usos atuais e sobre as expectativas dos atores locais em relação ao futuro da qualidade ambiental da bacia e na avaliação dos dados de qualidade de água na bacia obtidos, foi definida uma proposta de classificação dos corpos de água segundo os usos preponderantes atuais e futuros identificados, onde foi estabelecido que esta bacia deveria ser enquadrada na Classe 2, que prioriza o abastecimento para consumo humano após tratamento convencional, a proteção das comunidades aquáticas, a recreação de contato primário, a irrigação e a pesca.

Simulações de onda de cheia na sub-bacia do Ribeirão Claro - SP

Watersheds are considered important study units when it comes to environmental planning, with regard to the optimal use of water resources. Water scarcity is predicted and feared by many societies, and proves to be an increasingly tangible problem nowadays. Still from the perspective of extreme events, this dissertation considers the study of flood waves in the sub-basin of the stream Claro, which belongs to the Corumbataí watershed. - SP, since thay can also have devastating effects for the population, A Decision Support System for Flood Routing Analysis in Complex Basins, ABC 6 software was applied in order to obtain hydrographs and peak flows in the sub-basin of the stream Claro, for return periods of 10 and 100 years, aiming to comprise events of different magnitudes. The model Soil Conservation Service (SCS) and the triangular SCS hydrograph were adopted for the simulations. Simultaneously, the Kokei Uehara method was applied for the obtainment of peak flow values under the same conditions, seeking to compare results. Data collection was performed using geoprocessing tools. For data entry in ABC 6, the fragmentation of sub-basin of the stream Claro was necessary, which generated 7 small watersheds, in order to fulfill a software demand, as the maximum drainage area it accepts is 50km² for each watershed analyzed. For RT = 10 and 100 years, respectively, the results of peak flow with use of ABC 6 were 46.10 and 95.45 m³/s, while for Kokei Uehara method, the results were 47.17 and 65.26 m³/s. The adoption of a single value of discretization time for all watersheds was indicated as limitation of ABC 6, which interfered in the final results. Kokei method Uehara considered the sub-basin of the stream Claro as a whole, which reduced the error accumulation probability

Simulação da produtividade de cana-de-açúcar (Saccharum officinarum L.) na região nordeste do Brasil, utilizando o modelo DSSAT

The objective of this study was to simulate the potential stem and sugar yield of sugar cane (Saccharum officinarum L.) in the Northeastern Brazil (Petrolina-PE and Teresina-PI) and analyze 4 varieties in different planting seasons in two environments: irrigated and rainfed cultivars. The model of simulation was DSSAT/CANEGRO (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) and the four sugar cane varieties were as follows: RB86 7515, CTC 4, CTC 7 and CTC 20 (all in 1.5 year cycle). Analysis of variance was performed on the results and means were compared using the Tukey test with probability level at 5%. March is the recommended month for planting in Teresina, PI. In Petrolina, PE, rainfed planting is not advisable because of the extended water deficit all year long. In an irrigated environment, no difference was found concerning stem yield as a function of planting season, for all varieties in the study regions. The stem and sugar yields were always higher in irrigated environment as compared with those in rainfed environment in all municipalities and study varieties. The simulation model provided good estimate of stem and sugar yields as compared with experimental data in Teresina, PI.

Development of quantitative methods for sustainability assessment in process industry

The increasing aversion to technological risks of the society requires the development of inherently safer and environmentally friendlier processes, besides assuring the economic competitiveness of the industrial activities. The different forms of impact (e.g. environmental, economic and societal) are frequently characterized by conflicting reduction strategies and must be holistically taken into account in order to identify the optimal solutions in process design. Though the literature reports an extensive discussion of strategies and specific principles, quantitative assessment tools are required to identify the marginal improvements in alternative design options, to allow the trade-off among contradictory aspects and to prevent the “risk shift”. In the present work a set of integrated quantitative tools for design assessment (i.e. design support system) was developed. The tools were specifically dedicated to the implementation of sustainability and inherent safety in process and plant design activities, with respect to chemical and industrial processes in which substances dangerous for humans and environment are used or stored. The tools were mainly devoted to the application in the stages of “conceptual” and “basic design”, when the project is still open to changes (due to the large number of degrees of freedom) which may comprise of strategies to improve sustainability and inherent safety. The set of developed tools includes different phases of the design activities, all through the lifecycle of a project (inventories, process flow diagrams, preliminary plant lay-out plans). The development of such tools gives a substantial contribution to fill the present gap in the availability of sound supports for implementing safety and sustainability in early phases of process design. The proposed decision support system was based on the development of a set of leading key performance indicators (KPIs), which ensure the assessment of economic, societal and environmental impacts of a process (i.e. sustainability profile). The KPIs were based on impact models (also complex), but are easy and swift in the practical application. Their full evaluation is possible also starting from the limited data available during early process design. Innovative reference criteria were developed to compare and aggregate the KPIs on the basis of the actual sitespecific impact burden and the sustainability policy. Particular attention was devoted to the development of reliable criteria and tools for the assessment of inherent safety in different stages of the project lifecycle. The assessment follows an innovative approach in the analysis of inherent safety, based on both the calculation of the expected consequences of potential accidents and the evaluation of the hazards related to equipment. The methodology overrides several problems present in the previous methods proposed for quantitative inherent safety assessment (use of arbitrary indexes, subjective judgement, build-in assumptions, etc.). A specific procedure was defined for the assessment of the hazards related to the formations of undesired substances in chemical systems undergoing “out of control” conditions. In the assessment of layout plans, “ad hoc” tools were developed to account for the hazard of domino escalations and the safety economics. The effectiveness and value of the tools were demonstrated by the application to a large number of case studies concerning different kinds of design activities (choice of materials, design of the process, of the plant, of the layout) and different types of processes/plants (chemical industry, storage facilities, waste disposal). An experimental survey (analysis of the thermal stability of isomers of nitrobenzaldehyde) provided the input data necessary to demonstrate the method for inherent safety assessment of materials.

Applicazione dello User-Centered Design nella progettazione di un sistema di supporto alle decisioni per viticultura di precisione

Lo scopo di questo progetto è la progettazione dell'interfaccia utente di un Decision Support System (DSS) web based per la gestione integrata dei vigneti utilizzando lo user centered design. Questo sistema permetterà di facilitare il lavoro dei viticoltori confrontando una serie di variabili e fattori che verranno utilizzati per migliorare le loro capacita decisionali ed ottenere un livello ottimale di produttività del vino.

A multi-objective genetic algorithm optimisation using variable speed pumps in water distribution systems

Due to its practical importance and inherent complexity, the optimisation of distribution networks for supplying drinking water has been the subject of extensive study for the past 30 years. The optimization is governed by sizing the pipes in the water distribution network (WDN) and / or optimises specific parts of the network such as pumps, tanks etc. or try to analyse and optimise the reliability of a WDN. In this thesis, the author has analysed two different WDNs (Anytown City and Cabrera city networks), trying to solve and optimise a multi-objective optimisation problem (MOOP). The main two objectives in both cases were the minimisation of Energy Cost (€) or Energy consumption (kWh), along with the total Number of pump switches (TNps) during a day. For this purpose, a decision support system generator for Multi-objective optimisation used. Its name is GANetXL and has been developed by the Center of Water System in the University of Exeter. GANetXL, works by calling the EPANET hydraulic solver, each time a hydraulic analysis has been fulfilled. The main algorithm used, was a second-generation algorithm for multi-objective optimisation called NSGA_II that gave us the Pareto fronts of each configuration. The first experiment that has been carried out was the network of Anytown city. It is a big network with a pump station of four fixed speed parallel pumps that are boosting the water dynamics. The main intervention was to change these pumps to new Variable speed driven pumps (VSDPs), by installing inverters capable to diverse their velocity during the day. Hence, it’s been achieved great Energy and cost savings along with minimisation in the number of pump switches. The results of the research are thoroughly illustrated in chapter 7, with comments and a variety of graphs and different configurations. The second experiment was about the network of Cabrera city. The smaller WDN had a unique FS pump in the system. The problem was the same as far as the optimisation process was concerned, thus, the minimisation of the energy consumption and in parallel the minimisation of TNps. The same optimisation tool has been used (GANetXL).The main scope was to carry out several and different experiments regarding a vast variety of configurations, using different pump (but this time keeping the FS mode), different tank levels, different pipe diameters and different emitters coefficient. All these different modes came up with a large number of results that were compared in the chapter 8. Concluding, it should be said that the optimisation of WDNs is a very interested field that has a vast space of options to deal with. This includes a large number of algorithms to choose from, different techniques and configurations to be made and different support system generators. The researcher has to be ready to “roam” between these choices, till a satisfactory result will convince him/her that has reached a good optimisation point.

Realizzazione di uno strumento per la ripartizione dei fondi europei nell'ambito del programma operativo regionale

La costituzione dell’Unione Europea nel 1993 pose la questione del dover aiutare le regioni svantaggiate in essa contenute, allo scopo di promuovere i principi di eguaglianza appena stipulati. Allo stesso tempo si dovette cercare uno strumento per facilitare la collaborazione fra le regioni appartenenti all’Unione stessa. Tale strumento sono i Fondi Strutturali Europei, un sistema di autofinanziamento utilizzato per promuovere progetti lavorativi, di cultura o di ricerca in tutta Europa. La distribuzione dei fondi avviene secondo delle regole specifiche e spesso i temi verso cui i fondi vengono rivolti sono scelti di comune accordo tra i Paesi membri. Le amministrazioni regionali hanno quindi la possibilità di usufruire di una notevole quantità di denaro, giustificando in modo appropriato la destinazione d’uso dei fondi e stilando dei piani che ne descrivano la loro suddivisione nei vari progetti. In seguito all’evoluzione tecnologica degli anni ’60 e ’70 nacquero nuovi strumenti a favore delle aziende: i DSS (Decision Support System), descritti come “sistemi informatici a supporto del processo decisionale”. L’uso di questa nuova tecnologia permise una facilitazione dei compiti decisionali, oltre ad un miglioramento delle prestazioni negli ambiti di applicazione. Da tali premesse nascono diversi progetti che puntano ad utilizzare strumenti di supporto alle decisioni nei campi più diversi: amministrativo, medico, politico, culturale. In particolare, l’area d’applicazione politica vive un grande fermento negli ultimi anni, grazie a strumenti in grado di aiutare la classe politica in decisioni su più livelli di scelta e su una grosse mole di dati. Un esempio fra gli altri è la redazione del Programma Operativo Regionale, il quale fa affidamento sui finanziamenti dei Fondi Strutturali Europei per potersi sostentare. Negli ultimi anni la Regione Emilia-Romagna ha puntato molto sull’uso di strumenti informatici e automatizzati come aiuto nella compilazione di progetti, piani operativi e preventivi di spesa, sviluppando delle collaborazioni con diversi Enti ed Università, tra le quali l’Università degli Studi di Bologna. L’ultimo progetto realizzato in collaborazione con la Regione, e qui esposto, riguarda la realizzazione di uno strumento di supporto alle decisioni politiche per la ripartizione dei Fondi Europei, in particolare quelli destinati al Programma Operativo Regionale (POR).

Sviluppo di metodologie innovative di supporto decisionale alla progettazione basate su indicatori di prestazione

Il progetto di ricerca è finalizzato allo sviluppo di una metodologia innovativa di supporto decisionale nel processo di selezione tra alternative progettuali, basata su indicatori di prestazione. In particolare il lavoro si è focalizzato sulla definizione d’indicatori atti a supportare la decisione negli interventi di sbottigliamento di un impianto di processo. Sono stati sviluppati due indicatori, “bottleneck indicators”, che permettono di valutare la reale necessità dello sbottigliamento, individuando le cause che impediscono la produzione e lo sfruttamento delle apparecchiature. Questi sono stati validati attraverso l’applicazione all’analisi di un intervento su un impianto esistente e verificando che lo sfruttamento delle apparecchiature fosse correttamente individuato. Definita la necessità dell’intervento di sbottigliamento, è stato affrontato il problema della selezione tra alternative di processo possibili per realizzarlo. È stato applicato alla scelta un metodo basato su indicatori di sostenibilità che consente di confrontare le alternative considerando non solo il ritorno economico degli investimenti ma anche gli impatti su ambiente e sicurezza, e che è stato ulteriormente sviluppato in questa tesi. Sono stati definiti due indicatori, “area hazard indicators”, relativi alle emissioni fuggitive, per integrare questi aspetti nell’analisi della sostenibilità delle alternative. Per migliorare l’accuratezza nella quantificazione degli impatti è stato sviluppato un nuovo modello previsionale atto alla stima delle emissioni fuggitive di un impianto, basato unicamente sui dati disponibili in fase progettuale, che tiene conto delle tipologie di sorgenti emettitrici, dei loro meccanismi di perdita e della manutenzione. Validato mediante il confronto con dati sperimentali di un impianto produttivo, si è dimostrato che tale metodo è indispensabile per un corretto confronto delle alternative poiché i modelli esistenti sovrastimano eccessivamente le emissioni reali. Infine applicando gli indicatori ad un impianto esistente si è dimostrato che sono fondamentali per semplificare il processo decisionale, fornendo chiare e precise indicazioni impiegando un numero limitato di informazioni per ricavarle.

SMARTDIAB: a communication and information technology approach for the intelligent monitoring, management and follow-up of type 1 diabetes patients

SMARTDIAB is a platform designed to support the monitoring, management, and treatment of patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), by combining state-of-the-art approaches in the fields of database (DB) technologies, communications, simulation algorithms, and data mining. SMARTDIAB consists mainly of two units: 1) the patient unit (PU); and 2) the patient management unit (PMU), which communicate with each other for data exchange. The PMU can be accessed by the PU through the internet using devices, such as PCs/laptops with direct internet access or mobile phones via a Wi-Fi/General Packet Radio Service access network. The PU consists of an insulin pump for subcutaneous insulin infusion to the patient and a continuous glucose measurement system. The aforementioned devices running a user-friendly application gather patient's related information and transmit it to the PMU. The PMU consists of a diabetes data management system (DDMS), a decision support system (DSS) that provides risk assessment for long-term diabetes complications, and an insulin infusion advisory system (IIAS), which reside on a Web server. The DDMS can be accessed from both medical personnel and patients, with appropriate security access rights and front-end interfaces. The DDMS, apart from being used for data storage/retrieval, provides also advanced tools for the intelligent processing of the patient's data, supporting the physician in decision making, regarding the patient's treatment. The IIAS is used to close the loop between the insulin pump and the continuous glucose monitoring system, by providing the pump with the appropriate insulin infusion rate in order to keep the patient's glucose levels within predefined limits. The pilot version of the SMARTDIAB has already been implemented, while the platform's evaluation in clinical environment is being in progress.

Compensability index for compensation radiotherapy after treatment interruptions

Background The goal of our work was to develop a simple method to evaluate a compensation treatment after unplanned treatment interruptions with respect to their tumour- and normal tissue effect. Methods We developed a software tool in java programming language based on existing recommendations to compensate for treatment interruptions. In order to express and visualize the deviations from the originally planned tumour and normal tissue effects we defined the compensability index. Results The compensability index represents an evaluation of the suitability of compensatory radiotherapy in a single number based on the number of days used for compensation and the preference of preserving the originally planned tumour effect or not exceeding the originally planned normal tissue effect. An automated tool provides a method for quick evaluation of compensation treatments. Conclusions The compensability index calculation may serve as a decision support system based on existing and established recommendations.

GIS based Watershed Classification in Lao PDR

Every inclined land surface has a potential for soil and water degradation, the seriousness depends on a multitude of parameters such as slope, soil type, geomorphology, rainfall, land use and natural vegetation cover. In Laos this intensified land use leads to reduced vegetation cover, to increased soil erosion, decreasing yield, and finally is likely to influence the hydrological regime. Against this background the Mekong River Commission (MRC) elaborated a spatial explicit Watershed Classification (WSC) for the Lower Mekong Basin. Based on topographic factors derived from a high-resolution Digital Terrain Model, five watershed classes are calculated, giving indication about the sensitivity to resource degradation by soil erosion. The WSC allows spatial priority setting for watershed management and generally supports informed decision making on reconnaissance level. In the conclusions focus is laid on general considerations when GIS techniques are used for spatial decision support in a development context.

A neural network approach for insulin regime and dose adjustment in type 1 diabetes

A decision support system based on a neural network approach is proposed to advise on insulin regime and dose adjustment for type 1 diabetes patients.