Estimativa da probabilidade do evento extremo de precipitação de janeiro de 2000 no Vale do Paraíba, baseada na distribuição generalizada de pareto

Um evento extremo de precipitação ocorreu na primeira semana do ano 2000, de 1º a 5 de janeiro, no Vale do Paraíba, parte leste do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, causando enorme impacto socioeconômico, com mortes e destruição. Este trabalho estudou este evento em 10 estações meteorológicas selecionadas que foram consideradas como aquelas tendo dados mais homogêneos do Que outras estações na região. O modelo de distribuição generalizada de Pareto (DGP) para valores extremos de precipitação de 5 dias foi desenvolvido, individualmente para cada uma dessas estações. Na modelagem da DGP, foi adotada abordagem não-estacionaria considerando o ciclo anual e tendência de longo prazo como co-variaveis. Uma conclusão desta investigação é que as quantidades de precipitação acumulada durante os 5 dias do evento estudado podem ser classificadas como extremamente raras para a região, com probabilidade de ocorrência menor do que 1% para maioria das estações, e menor do que 0,1% em três estações.

Correlation of meta 1 expression with culture stage, cell morphology and infectivity in Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis promastigotes

The parasitic protozoan Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis alternates between mammalian and insect hosts. In the insect host, the parasites proliferate as procyclic promastigotes andthen differentiate into metacyclic infective forms. The meta 1 gene is preferentially expressed during metacyclogenesis. Meta 1 expression profile determination along parasite growth curves revealed that the meta 1 mRNA level peaked at the early stationary phase then decreased to an intermediate level. No correlation was observed between meta 1 expression and infectivity. Conversely, infectivity correlated with the increase of apoptotic cells in the late stationary phase.

Intertidal life: field observations on the clingfish Gobiesox barbatulus in southeastern Brazil

The clingfish Gobiesox barbatulus shows nocturnal feeding activity, spending most part of the day stationary and adhered to the inferior part of stones. To feed, this species uses the sit-and-wait and particulate feeding tactics. It shows a carnivorous feeding habit mostly consuming small benthic crustaceans. It can move in two ways: (1) "stone-by-stone", sliding its ventral sucker disc across each stone and (2) "surf", when it takes advantage of the energy of the ebbing tide to quickly cross a distance up to four times its body length. Its reproductive season occurs between the end of spring and the beginning of summer, during which time it lays about 2,000 adhesive eggs of 1 mm each in a single layer under stones. It has more than one egg-laying session per reproductive season, therefore showing several different developmental stages. It performs fanning, mouthing and guarding of the eggs as forms of parental care. Data shown here also indicates that G. barbatulus has some shelter fidelity, being probably territorial.

Ultra-som pulsado de baixa intensidade em fraturas diafisárias: aplicação clínica em cães

Os efeitos da estimulação ultra-sônica sobre a consolidação óssea têm sido demonstrados por trabalhos experimentais e clínicos. Este estudo teve por objetivo investigar a aplicação clínica do ultra-som pulsado de baixa intensidade como tratamento adjuvante de fraturas diafisárias em cães. Foram utilizados 16 cães de raças variadas, com faixa etária entre sete meses e seis anos, peso corpóreo entre 2,5 e 43kg, portadores de fraturas diafisárias fechadas recentes localizadas no rádio e ulna, fêmur ou tíbia e fíbula, estabilizadas por procedimentos de osteossíntese (fixação esquelética externa, pinos intramedulares ou a associação desses métodos). Os cães foram divididos em dois grupos: fraturas estabilizadas tratadas por ultra-som de baixa intensidade (grupo tratado, n=8); fraturas estabilizadas, não tratadas por estimulação ultra-sônica, (grupo controle, n=8). Os animais foram avaliados por exames clínicos e radiográficos nos períodos pré-operatório, pós-operatório imediato e a cada 30 dias posteriores aos procedimentos cirúrgicos. Realizou-se tratamento com ultra-som pulsado (sinal senoidal com freqüência de 1,5MHz, largura de pulso de 200µs e freqüência de repetição de 1kHz) de baixa intensidade (30mW cm-2), aplicado de modo estacionário no foco de fratura. A terapia ultra-sônica foi realizada 20 minutos por dia, durante 21 dias consecutivos, a partir do período compreendido entre o 1° e o 9° dia pós-operatório. O teste t de Student, empregado na análise estatística, mostrou diferença significante (P<0,001 e alfa=0,05) entre as médias dos parâmetros de tempo para consolidação óssea observadas nos animais dos grupos tratado (média de 67,5 dias) e controle (média de 106 dias). Este protocolo de estimulação ultra-sônica promoveu sinais clínicos e radiográficos acelerados da consolidação óssea nas fraturas tratadas. Os resultados deste estudo sugerem que o ultra-som pulsado de baixa intensidade pode ser indicado como terapia adjuvante de fraturas diafisárias recentes em cães.

Change and Aging Senescence as an Adaptation

Understanding why we age is a long-lived open problem in evolutionary biology. Aging is prejudicial to the individual, and evolutionary forces should prevent it, but many species show signs of senescence as individuals age. Here, I will propose a model for aging based on assumptions that are compatible with evolutionary theory: i) competition is between individuals; ii) there is some degree of locality, so quite often competition will be between parents and their progeny; iii) optimal conditions are not stationary, and mutation helps each species to keep competitive. When conditions change, a senescent species can drive immortal competitors to extinction. This counter-intuitive result arises from the pruning caused by the death of elder individuals. When there is change and mutation, each generation is slightly better adapted to the new conditions, but some older individuals survive by chance. Senescence can eliminate those from the genetic pool. Even though individual selection forces can sometimes win over group selection ones, it is not exactly the individual that is selected but its lineage. While senescence damages the individuals and has an evolutionary cost, it has a benefit of its own. It allows each lineage to adapt faster to changing conditions. We age because the world changes.

Aging and fluctuation-dissipation ratio in a nonequilibrium q-state lattice model

A generalized version of the nonequilibrium linear Glauber model with q states in d dimensions is introduced and analyzed. The model is fully symmetric, its dynamics being invariant under all permutations of the q states. Exact expressions for the two-time autocorrelation and response functions on a d-dimensional lattice are obtained. In the stationary regime, the fluctuation-dissipation theorem holds, while in the transient the aging is observed with the fluctuation-dissipation ratio leading to the value predicted for the linear Glauber model.

EXISTENCE RESULTS FOR NEUTRAL INTEGRO-DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS WITH UNBOUNDED DELAY

In this paper we discuss the existence of mild, strict and classical solutions for a class of abstract integro-differential equations in Banach spaces. Some applications to ordinary and partial integro-differential equations are considered.

Weighted S-Asymptotically omega-Periodic Solutions of a Class of Fractional Differential Equations

We study the existence of weighted S-asymptotically omega-periodic mild solutions for a class of abstract fractional differential equations of the form u' = partial derivative (alpha vertical bar 1)Au + f(t, u), 1 < alpha < 2, where A is a linear sectorial operator of negative type.

Impact of outdoor biomass air pollution on hypertension hospital admissions

Background This study aimed to evaluate the association between the total suspended particles (TSP) generated from burning sugar cane plantations and the incidence of hospital admissions from hypertension in the city of Araraquara. Methods The study was an ecological time-series study. Total daily records of hypertension (ICD 10th I10-15) were obtained from admitted patients of all ages in a hospital in Araraquara, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, from 23 March 2003 to 27 July 2004. The daily concentration of TSP (mu g/m(3)) was obtained using a Handi-Vol sampler placed in downtown Araraquara. The local airport provided daily measures of temperature and humidity. In generalised linear Poisson regression models, the daily number of hospital admissions for hypertension was considered to be the dependent variable and the daily TSP concentration the independent variable. Results TSP presented a lagged effect on hypertension admissions, which was first observed 1 day after a TSP increase and remained almost unchanged for the following 2 days. A 10 mu g/m(3) increase in the TSP 3 day moving average lagged in 1 day led to an increase in hypertension-related hospital admissions during the harvest period (12.5%, 95% CI 5.6% to 19.9%) that was almost 30% higher than during non-harvest periods (9.0%, 95% CI 4.0% to 14.3%). Conclusions Increases in TSP concentrations were associated with hypertension-related hospital admissions. Despite the benefits of reduced air pollution in urban cities achieved by using ethanol produced from sugar cane to power automobiles, areas where the sugar cane is produced and harvested were found to have increased public health risk.

BALB/c Mice Infected with Antimony Treatment Refractory Isolate of Leishmania braziliensis Present Severe Lesions due to IL-4 Production

Background: Leishmania braziliensis is the main causative agent of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil. Protection against infection is related to development of Th1 responses, but the mechanisms that mediate susceptibility are still poorly understood. Murine models have been the most important tools in understanding the immunopathogenesis of L. major infection and have shown that Th2 responses favor parasite survival. In contrast, L. braziliensis-infected mice develop strong Th1 responses and easily resolve the infection, thus making the study of factors affecting susceptibility to this parasite difficult. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here, we describe an experimental model for the evaluation of the mechanisms mediating susceptibility to L. braziliensis infection. BALB/c mice were inoculated with stationary phase promastigotes of L. braziliensis, isolates LTCP393(R) and LTCP15171(S), which are resistant and susceptible to antimony and nitric oxide (NO), respectively. Mice inoculated with LTCP393(R) presented larger lesions that healed more slowly and contained higher parasite loads than lesions caused by LTCP15171(S). Inflammatory infiltrates in the lesions and production of IFN-gamma, TNF-alpha, IL-10 and TGF-beta were similar in mice inoculated with either isolate, indicating that these factors did not contribute to the different disease manifestations observed. In contrast, IL-4 production was strongly increased in LTCP393(R)-inoculated animals and also arginase I (Arg I) expression. Moreover, anti-IL-4 monoclonal antibody (mAb) treatment resulted in decreased lesion thickness and parasite burden in animals inoculated with LTCP393(R), but not in those inoculated with LTCP15171(S). Conclusion/Significance: We conclude that the ability of L. braziliensis isolates to induce Th2 responses affects the susceptibility to infection with these isolates and contributes to the increased virulence and severity of disease associated with them. Since these data reflect what happens in human infection, this model could be useful to study the pathogenesis of the L. braziliensis infection, as well as to design new strategies of therapeutic intervention.

Inequalities in mortality of men by oral and pharyngeal cancer in Barcelona, Spain and Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1995-2003

Background: Large inequalities of mortality by most cancers in general, by mouth and pharynx cancer in particular, have been associated to behaviour and geopolitical factors. The assessment of socioeconomic covariates of cancer mortality may be relevant to a full comprehension of distal determinants of the disease, and to appraise opportune interventions. The objective of this study was to compare socioeconomic inequalities in male mortality by oral and pharyngeal cancer in two major cities of Europe and South America. Methods: The official system of information on mortality provided data on deaths in each city; general censuses informed population data. Age-adjusted death rates by oral and pharyngeal cancer for men were independently assessed for neighbourhoods of Barcelona, Spain, and Sao Paulo, Brazil, from 1995 to 2003. Uniform methodological criteria instructed the comparative assessment of magnitude, trends and spatial distribution of mortality. General linear models assessed ecologic correlations between death rates and socioeconomic indices (unemployment, schooling levels and the human development index) at the inner-city area level. Results obtained for each city were subsequently compared. Results: Mortality of men by oral and pharyngeal cancer ranked higher in Barcelona (9.45 yearly deaths per 100,000 male inhabitants) than in Spain and Europe as a whole; rates were on decrease. Sao Paulo presented a poorer profile, with higher magnitude (11.86) and stationary trend. The appraisal of ecologic correlations indicated an unequal and inequitably distributed burden of disease in both cities, with poorer areas tending to present higher mortality. Barcelona had a larger gradient of mortality than Sao Paulo, indicating a higher inequality of cancer deaths across its neighbourhoods. Conclusion: The quantitative monitoring of inequalities in health may contribute to the formulation of redistributive policies aimed at the concurrent promotion of wellbeing and social justice. The assessment of groups experiencing a higher burden of disease can instruct health services to provide additional resources for expanding preventive actions and facilities aimed at early diagnosis, standardized treatments and rehabilitation.

Observational evidences on the modulation of the South American Low Level Jet east of the Andes according the ENSO variability

The differences on the phase and wavelength of the quasi-stationary waves over the South America generated by El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) events seem to affect the daily evolution of the South American Low Level Jet east of the Andes (SALLJ). For the austral summer period of 1977 2004 the SALLJ episodes detected according to Bonner criterion 1 show normal to above-normal frequency in EN years, and in LN years the episodes show normal to below-normal frequency. During EN and LN years the SALLJ episodes were associated with positive rainfall anomalies over the La Plata Basin, but more intense during LN years. During EN years the increase in the SALLJ cases were associated to intensification of the Subtropical Jet (SJ) around 30 degrees S and positive Sea Level Pressure (SLP) anomalies over the western equatorial Atlantic and tropical South America, particularly over central Brazil. This favored the intensification of the northeasterly trade winds over the northern continent and it channeled by the Andes mountain to the La Plata Basin region where negative SLP are found. The SALLJ cases identified during the LN events were weaker and less frequent when compared to those for EN years. In this case the SJ was weaker than in EN years and the negative SLP anomalies over the tropical continent contributed to the inversion of the northeasterly trade winds. Also a southerly flow anomaly was generated by the geostrophic balance due to the anomalous blocking over southeast Pacific and the intense cyclonic transient over the southern tip of South America. As result the warm tropical air brought by the SALLJ encounters the cold extratropical air from the southerly winds over the La Plata basin. This configuration can increase the conditional instability over the La Plata basin and may explain the more intense positive rainfall anomalies in SALLJ cases during LN years than in EN years.

The role of the observed tropical convection in the generation of frost events in the southern cone of South America

Based on previous results obtained from observations and linear wave theory analysis, the hypothesis that large-scale patterns can generate extreme cold events in southeast South America through the propagation of remotely excited Rossby waves was already suggested. This work will confirm these findings and extend their analysis through a series of numerical experiments using a primitive equation model where waves are excited by a thermal forcing situated in positions chosen according to observed convection anomalies over the equatorial region. The basic state used for these experiments is a composite of austral winters with maximum and minimum frequency of occurrence of generalized frosts that can affect a large area known as the Wet Pampas located in the central and eastern part of Argentina. The results suggest that stationary Rossby waves may be one important mechanism linking anomalous tropical convection with the extreme cold events in the Wet Pampas. The combination of tropical convection and a specific basic state can generate the right environment to guide the Rossby waves trigged by the tropical forcing towards South America. Depending on the phase of the waves entering the South American continent, they can favour the advection of anomalous wind at low levels from the south carrying cold and dry air over the whole southern extreme of the continent, producing a generalized frost in the Wet Pampa region. On the other hand, when a basic state based on the composites of minimum frosts is used, an anomalous anticyclone over the southern part of the continent generates a circulation with a south-southeast wind which brings maritime air and therefore humidity over the Wet Pampas region, creating negative temperature anomalies only over the northeastern part of the region. Under these conditions even if frosts occur they would not be generalized, as observed for the other basic state with maximum frequency of occurrence of generalized frosts.

Trapping of strangelets in the geomagnetic field

Strangelets arriving from the interstellar medium are an interesting target for experiments searching for evidence of this hypothetical state of hadronic matter. We entertain the possibility of a trapped strangelet population, quite analogous to ordinary nuclei and electron belts. For a population of strangelets to be trapped by the geomagnetic field, these incoming particles would have to fulfill certain conditions, namely, having magnetic rigidities above the geomagnetic cutoff and below a certain threshold for adiabatic motion to hold. We show in this work that, for fully ionized strangelets, there is a narrow window for stable trapping. An estimate of the stationary population is presented and the dominant loss mechanisms discussed. It is shown that the population would be substantially enhanced with respect to the interstellar medium flux (up to 2 orders of magnitude) due to quasistable trapping.

Modeling the skin pattern of fishes

Complicated patterns showing various spatial scales have been obtained in the past by coupling Turing systems in such a way that the scales of the independent systems resonate. This produces superimposed patterns with different length scales. Here we propose a model consisting of two identical reaction-diffusion systems coupled together in such a way that one of them produces a simple Turing pattern of spots or stripes, and the other traveling wave fronts that eventually become stationary. The basic idea is to assume that one of the systems becomes fixed after some time and serves as a source of morphogens for the other system. This mechanism produces patterns very similar to the pigmentation patterns observed in different species of stingrays and other fishes. The biological mechanisms that support the realization of this model are discussed.