In-House Risk

Over the last thirty years or so, as the number of in-house counsel rose and their role increased in scope and prominence, increased attention has been given the various challenges these lawyers face under the ABA Model Rules of Professional Conduct, from figuring out who is the client the in-house lawyer represents, to navigating conflicts of interest, maintaining independence, and engaging in a multijurisdictional practice of law. Less attention, to date, has been given to business risk assessment, perhaps in part because that function appears to be part of in-house counsel’s role as a business person rather than as a lawyer. Overlooking the role of in-house counsel in assessing risk, however, is a risky proposition, because risk assessment constitutes for some in-house counsel a significant aspect of their role, a role that in turn informs and shapes how in-house counsel perform other more overtly legal tasks. For example, wearing her hat as General Counsel, a lawyer for the entity-client may opine and explain issues of compliance with the law. Wearing her hat as the Chief Legal Officer, however, the same lawyer may now be called upon as a member of business management to participate in the decision whether to comply with the law. After outlining some of the traditional challenges faced by in-house counsel under the Rules, this short essay explores risk assessment by in-house counsel and its impact on their role and function under the Rules. It argues that the key to in-house lawyers’ successful navigation of multiple roles, and, in particular, to their effective assessment of business risk is keen awareness of the various hats they are called upon to wear. Navigating these various roles may not be easy for lawyers, whose training and habits of mind often teach them to zoom in on legal risks to the exclusion of business risks. Indeed, law schools continue to teach law students “to think like a lawyer” and law firms, the historical breeding grounds for in-house counsel positions, in a world of increased specialization master the narrower contemplation of legal questions. Yet the present and future of in-house counsel practice demand of its practitioners the careful and gradual coming to terms, buildup and mastery of business risk analysis skills, alongside the cultivation of traditional legal risk analysis tools.

Aid decision algorithms to estimate the risk in congenital heart surgery

Background and objective: In this paper, we have tested the suitability of using different artificial intelligence-based algorithms for decision support when classifying the risk of congenital heart surgery. In this sense, classification of those surgical risks provides enormous benefits as the a priori estimation of surgical outcomes depending on either the type of disease or the type of repair, and other elements that influence the final result. This preventive estimation may help to avoid future complications, or even death. Methods: We have evaluated four machine learning algorithms to achieve our objective: multilayer perceptron, self-organizing map, radial basis function networks and decision trees. The architectures implemented have the aim of classifying among three types of surgical risk: low complexity, medium complexity and high complexity. Results: Accuracy outcomes achieved range between 80% and 99%, being the multilayer perceptron method the one that offered a higher hit ratio. Conclusions: According to the results, it is feasible to develop a clinical decision support system using the evaluated algorithms. Such system would help cardiology specialists, paediatricians and surgeons to forecast the level of risk related to a congenital heart disease surgery.

An SDF approach to hedge funds’ tail risk: evidence from Brazilian funds

The main purpose of this paper is to propose a methodology to obtain a hedge fund tail risk measure. Our measure builds on the methodologies proposed by Almeida and Garcia (2015) and Almeida, Ardison, Garcia, and Vicente (2016), which rely in solving dual minimization problems of Cressie Read discrepancy functions in spaces of probability measures. Due to the recently documented robustness of the Hellinger estimator (Kitamura et al., 2013), we adopt within the Cressie Read family, this specific discrepancy as loss function. From this choice, we derive a minimum Hellinger risk-neutral measure that correctly prices an observed panel of hedge fund returns. The estimated risk-neutral measure is used to construct our tail risk measure by pricing synthetic out-of-the-money put options on hedge fund returns of ten specific categories. We provide a detailed description of our methodology, extract the aggregate Tail risk hedge fund factor for Brazilian funds, and as a by product, a set of individual Tail risk factors for each specific hedge fund category.

Impact of a Potassium-enriched, Chloride-depleted 5% Glucose Solution on Gastrointestinal Function after Major Abdominopelvic Surgery: Results of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND Gastrointestinal (GI) complications often delay recovery after radical cystectomy with urinary diversion. The authors investigated if perioperative administration of a potassium-enriched, chloride-depleted 5% glucose solution (G5K) accelerates recovery of GI function. METHODS This randomized, parallel-group, single-center double-blind trial included 44 consecutive patients undergoing radical cystectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection with urinary diversion. Patients were randomized to receive either a G5K (G5K group) solution or a Ringer's maleate solution (control group). Fluid management aimed for a zero fluid balance. Primary endpoint was time to first defecation. Secondary endpoints were time to normal GI function, need for electrolyte substitution, and renal dysfunction. RESULTS Time to first defecation was not significantly different between groups (G5K group, 93 h [19 to 168 h] and control group, 120 h [43 to 241 h]); estimator of the group difference, -16 (95% CI, -38 to 6); P = 0.173. Return of normal GI function occurred faster in the G5K group than in the control group (median, 138 h [range, 54 to 262 h] vs. 169 h [108 to 318 h]); estimator of the group difference, -38 (95% CI, -74 to -12); P = 0.004. Potassium and magnesium were less frequently substituted in the G5K group (13.6 vs. 54.5% [P = 0.010] and 18.2 vs. 77.3% [P < 0.001]), respectively. The incidence of renal dysfunction (Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss and End-stage kidney disease stage "risk") at discharge was 9.1% in the G5K group and 4.5% in the control group; P = 1.000. CONCLUSIONS Perioperative administration of a G5K did not enhance first defecation, but may accelerate recovery of normal GI function, and reduces potassium and magnesium substitution after radical cystectomy and urinary diversion.

The Kinetics of Myeloid Derived Suppressor Cell Frequency and Function in Chronic Retroviral Infections

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Cardiac function in fetuses of poorly-controlled pre-gestational diabetic pregnancies - a pilot study

Objective: Cardiac impairment is frequently found in babies of diabetic mothers. It is still controversial whether this is due to poor glucose control. The aim of this study is to compare the cardiac function in fetuses of well- and poorly-controlled pre-gestational diabetic pregnancy in third trimester. Methods:Women with type 1 pre-gestational diabetes were enrolled at 30-32 weeks. Cardiac size and interventricular septal wall thickness were measured by M-mode at end-diastolic phase. The right and left ventricular ejection fractions were calculated. At the mitral and tricuspid valves inflow, the ratio between early ventricular filling and active atrial filling (E/A) at both atrioventricular valves were measured by Doppler echocardiography. Peak velocities of ascending aorta and pulmonary artery were assessed. The angle of isonation was kept at 6.5%) were compared with those with satisfactorily controlled diabetes (HbA1c less than or equal to 6.5%). Results: A total of 21 women with pre-gestational diabetes were recruited for this study. Eight women with well-controlled diabetes were compared with 9 women who had poorly-controlled diabetes. HbA1c in the poorly-controlled group was 7.3% and in the well-controlled group it was 5.4% (p < 0.001). There was no difference between the two groups in cardiac size, interventricular septal wall thickness, ejection fraction, aorta and pulmonary artery peak flow velocities. The right atrioventricular E/A ratio was significantly lower among the poorly-controlled diabetic pregnancies (0.71 vs. 0.54; p < 0.05). Conclusion: Fetuses of poorly-controlled diabetic mothers had a lower right atrioventricular E/A ratio. This may be due to metabolic acidosis, non-hypertrophic cardiac dysfunction or fetal polycythemia. Copyright (C) 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Patients with a hypertensive response to exercise have impaired systolic function without diastolic dysfunction or left ventricular hypertrophy

OBJECTIVES We sought to determine if a hypertensive response to exercise (HRE) is associated with myocardial changes consistent with early hypertensive heart disease. BACKGROUND An HRE predicts the development of chronic hypertension (HT) and may reflect a preclinical stage of HT. METHODS Patients with a normal left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction and a negative stress test were recruited into three matched groups: 41 patients (age 56 +/- 10 years) with HRE (210/105 mm Hg in men; > 190/105 in women), comprising 22 patients with (HT+) and 19 without resting hypertension (HT-); and 17 matched control subjects without HRE. Long-axis function was determined by measurement of the strain rate (SR), peak systolic strain, and cyclic variation (CV) of integrated backscatter in three apical views. RESULTS An HRE was not associated with significant differences in LV mass index. Exercise performance and diastolic function were reduced in HRE(HT+) patients, but similar in HRE(HT-) patients and controls. Systolic dysfunction (peak systolic strain, SR, and CV) was significantly reduced in HRE patients (p < 0.001 for all). These reductions were equally apparent in patients with and without a history of resting HT (p = NS) and were independent of LV mass index and blood pressure (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS An HRE is associated with subtle systolic dysfunction, even in the absence of resting HT. These changes occur before the development of LV hypertrophy or detectable diastolic dysfunction and likely represent early hypertensive heart disease. (C) 2004 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

The relative importance of vascular structure and function in predicting cardiovascular events

OBJECTIVES We sought to assess the prognostic utility of brachial artery reactivity (BAR) in patients at risk of cardiovascular events. BACKGROUND Impaired flow-mediated vasodilation measured by BAR is a marker of endothelial dysfunction. Brachial artery reactivity is influenced by risk factors and is responsive to various pharmacological and other treatments. However, its prognostic importance is uncertain, especially relative to other predictors of outcome. METHODS A total of 444 patients were prospectively enrolled to undergo BAR and follow-up. These patients were at risk of cardiovascular events, based on the presence of risk factors or known or suspected cardiovascular disease. We took a full clinical history, performed BAR, and obtained carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and left ventricular mass and ejection fraction. Patients were followed up for cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the independent association of investigation variables on outcomes. RESULTS The patients exhibited abnormal BAR (5.2 +/- 6.1% [mean +/- SD]) but showed normal nitrate-mediated dilation (9.9 +/- 7.2%) and normal mean IMT (0.67 +/- 0.12 mm [average]). Forty-nine deaths occurred over the median follow-up period of 24 months (interquartile range 10 to 34). Patients in the lowest tertile group of BAR (<2%) had significantly more events than those in the combined group of highest and mid-tertiles (p = 0.029, log-rank test). However, mean IMT (rather than flow-mediated dilation) was the vascular factor independently associated with mortality, even in the subgroup (n = 271) with no coronary artery disease and low risk. CONCLUSIONS Brachial artery reactivity is lower in patients with events, but is not an independent predictor of cardiovascular outcomes in this cohort of patients. (C) 2004 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

Use of tissue Doppler imaging to facilitate the prediction of events in patients with abnormal left ventricular function dobutamine echocardiography

The extent of abnormality in patients with positive do-butamine echocardiography (DE) is predictive of risk, but the wall motion score (WMS) has low concordance among observers. We sought whether quantifying the extent of abnormal wall motion using tissue Doppler (TD) could guide risk assessment in patients with abnormal DE in 576 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease; standard DE was combined with color TD imaging at peak dose. WMS was assessed by an expert observer and studies were identified as abnormal in the presence of 2:1 segments with resting or stress-induced wall motion abnormalities. Patients with abnormal DE had peak systolic velocity measured in each segment. Tissue tracking was used to measure myocardial displacement. Follow-up for death or infarction was per-formed after. 16 +/- 12 months. Of 251 patients with abnormal DE, 22 patients died (20 from cardiac causes) and 7 had nonfatal myocardial infarctionis. The average WMS in patients with events was 1.8 +/- 0.5, compared with 1.7 +/- 0.5 in patients without events (p = NS). The average systolic velocity in patients with events was 4.9 +/- 1.7 cm/s and 6.4 +/- 6.5 cm/s in the patients without events (p <0.001). The average tissue tracking in patients with events was 4.5 +/- 1.5 mm and was significant. (5.7 +/- 3.1 mm),in those,without events (p <0.001). Thus, TD is an alternative to WMS for quantifying the total extent of abnormal left ventricular function-at DE, and appears to be superior for predicting adverse outcomes. (C) 2004 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

Alcohol, wine, and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer

Moderate alcohol intake can influence sex hormone levels and affect ovarian function as well as increasing breast cancer risk. This suggests that alcohol might also influence ovarian cancer risk. We have evaluated this among 696 Australian women with histologically confirmed epithelial ovarian cancer and 786 cancer-free control women, selected at random from the electoral roll. Sociodemographic information and a detailed reproductive history were collected in a face-to-face interview, and information about diet and alcohol consumption was obtained from a food frequency questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Overall, 59% of women drank

Impact of gender on risk stratification by exercise and dobutamine stress echocardiography: long-term mortality in 4234 women and 6898 men

Aims Prior research is limited with regard to the diagnostic and prognostic accuracy of commonplace cardiac imaging modalities in women. The aim of this study was to examine 5-year mortality in 4234 women and 6898 men undergoing exercise or dobutamine stress echocardiography at three hospitals. Methods and results Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate time to cardiac death in this multi-centre, observational registry. Of the 11 132 patients, women had a greater frequency of cardiac risk factors (P < 0.0001). However, men more often had a history of coronary disease including a greater frequency of echocardiographic wall motion abnormalities (P < 0.0001). During 5 years of follow-up, 103 women and 226 men died from ischaernic heart disease (P < 0.0001). Echocardiographic estimates of left ventricular function (P < 0.0001) and the extent of ischaernic watt motion abnormalities (P < 0.0001) were highly predictive of cardiac death. Risk-adjusted 5-year survival was 99.4, 97.6, and 95% for exercising women with no, single, and multi-vessel ischaemia (P < 0.0001). For women undergoing dobutamine stress, 5-year survival was 95, 89, and 86.6% for those with 0, 1, and 2-3 vessel ischaemia (P < 0.0001). Exercising men had a 2.0-fold higher risk at every level of worsening ischaemia (P < 0.0001). Significantly worsening cardiac survival was noted for the 1568 men undergoing dobutamine stress echocardiography (P < 0.0001); no ischaemia was associated with 92% 5-year survival as compared with death rates of &GE; 16% for men with ischaemia on dobutamine stress echocardiography (P < 0.0001). Conclusion Echocardiographic measures of inducible wall motion abnormalities and global and regional left ventricutar function are highly predictive of long-term outcome for women and men alike.

Altered cell surface expression of human MC1R variant receptor alleles associated with red hair and skin cancer risk

The human melanocortin-1 receptor gene (MC1R) encodes a G-protein coupled receptor that is primarily expressed on melanocytes, where it plays a key role in pigmentation regulation. Variant alleles are associated with red hair colour and fair skin, known as the RHC phenotype, as well as skin cancer risk. The R151C, R160W and D294H alleles, designated 'R', are strongly associated with the RHC phenotype and have been proposed to result in loss of function receptors due to impaired G-protein coupling. We recently provided evidence that the R151C and R160W variants can efficiently couple to G-proteins in response to alpha-melanocyte stimulating hormone. The possibility that altered cellular localization of the R151C and R160W variant receptors could underlie their association with RHC was therefore considered. Using immunofluorescence and ligand binding studies, we found that melanocytic cells exogenously or endogenously expressing MC1R show strong surface localization of the wild-type and D294H alleles but markedly reduced cell surface expression of the R151C and R160W receptors. In additional exogenous expression studies, the R variant D84E and the rare I155T variant, also demonstrated a significant reduction in plasma membrane receptor numbers. The V60L, V92M and R163Q weakly associated RHC alleles, designated 'r', were expressed with normal or intermediate cell surface receptor levels. These results indicate that reduced receptor coupling activity may not be the only contributing factor to the genetic association between the MC1R variants and the RHC phenotype, with MC1R polymorphisms now linked to a change in receptor localization.

Carotid artery intimal medial thickness, brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilation and cardiovascular risk factors in diabetic and non-diabetic indigenous Australians

Background: Indigenous Australians are at high risk for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. Carotid artery intimal medial thickness (CIMT) and brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD) are ultrasound imaging based surrogate markers of cardiovascular risk. This study examines the relative contributions of traditional cardiovascular risk factors on CIMT and FMD in adult Indigenous Australians with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus. Method: One hundred and nineteen Indigenous Australians were recruited. Physical and biochemical markers of cardiovascular risk, together with CIMT and FMD were meausred for all subjects. Results: Fifty-three Indigenous Australians subjects (45%) had type 2 diabetes mellitus. There was a significantly greater mean CIMT in diabetic versus non-diabetic subjects (p = 0.049). In the non-diabetic group with non-parametric analyses, there were significant correlations between CIMT and: age (r = 0.64, p < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (r = 0.47, p < 0.001) and non-smokers (r = -0.30, p = 0.018). In the diabetic group, non-parametric analysis showed correlations between CIMT, age (r = 0.36, p = 0.009) and duration of diabetes (r = 0.30, p = 0.035) only. Adjusting forage, sex, smoking and history of cardiovascular disease, Hb(A1c) became the sole significant correlate of CIMT (r = 0.35,p = 0.01) in the diabetic group. In non-parametric analysis, age was the sole significant correlate of FMD (r = -0.31,p = 0.013), and only in non-diabetic subjects. Linear regression analysis showed significant associations between CIMT and age (t = 4.6,p < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (t = 2.6, p = 0.010) and Hb(A1c) (t = 2.6, p = 0.012), smoking (t = 2.1, p = 0.04) and fasting LDL-cholesterol (t = 2.1, p = 0.04). There were no significant associations between FMD and examined cardiovascular risk factors with linear regression analysis Conclusions: CIMT appears to be a useful surrogate marker of cardiovascular risk in this sample of Indigenous Australian subjects, correlating better than FMD with established cardiovascular risk factors. A lifestyle intervention programme may alleviate the burden of cardiovascular disease in Indigenous Australians by reducing central obesity, lowering blood pressure, correcting dyslipidaemia and improving glycaemic control. CIMT may prove to be a useful tool to assess efficacy of such an intervention programme. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.