Las regalías en Colombia y su impacto en el ámbito subnacional

Durante varios años se ha mantenido un fascinante debate sobre las regalías por lo que significanpara las finanzasde los entes subnacionales, por su impacto en el ámbito social y por su signifcado en materia tributaria para las empresas, entre otros. El objeto del presente trabajo es presentar el marco normativo que rige las regalías, las variables que las determinan desde el aspecto legal y su impacto; así como estudiar los posibles agrupamientos resultantes a nivel municipal y departamental teniendo como base un conjunto más amplio de variables diferentes al de las regalías.Respecto a los determinantes normativos se encontró que el monto de las regalías depende de la producción minera, del precio internacional del petróleo, del tipo de cambio y de la inflación. Desde el punto de vista de las entidades territoriales se encontró que las regalías asignadas dependen básicamente del PIB minero y que los ingresos tributarios departamentales y municipales no dependen del PIB no minero (PIB menos PIB minero). Finalmente, hay un grupo pequeño de entidades territoriales donde las regalías tienen cierto impacto, esto siembra una inquietud con respecto al mandato constitucional que señala que “el Estado es propietario del subsuelo y de los recursos naturales no renovables”, con lo cual el impacto debería abarcar buena parte del territorio nacional.-----For several years has been hold a fascinating debate on royalties, because of what they mean for the financesof the subnational entities, their social impact and its meaning in tax matters for companies, among others issues. The objective of this work is to present the regulatory framework governing royalties currently, show the variables that determine them from legal order and its impact; as well as studying the possible resulting groupings at the municipal and departmental levels taking as a basis a broader set of variables different of royalties.Respect to normative determinants, it was found that the amount of the royalties depends on mining production, the international oil prices, exchange rate and inflation. From the point of view of the territorial entities, it was found that assigned royalties are basically dependent on mining GDP. Meanwhile, departmental and municipal tax revenues are not dependent on GDP without mining (mining excluded from GDP). Finally, there are a small group of territorial entities where royalties have some impact, leaving some concern regarding to the constitutional mandate pointing to “the State owns the subsoil and non-renewable natural resources”, where the impact should covers most of the national territory.

Estudio de caso- lanzamiento de la marca Davivienda en Costa Rica, el Salvador y Honduras

Este documento tiene como propósito reunir y analizar el universo de información disponible al respecto del proceso de Lanzamiento de la Marca Davivienda en tres mercados Centroamericanos: Costa Rica, El Salvador y Honduras y así, lograr aprovechar al máximo las experiencias y lecciones aprendidas por la entidad durante este período. Para este propósito, la estructura del trabajo consta de un marco teórico que contempla las teorías sobre el posicionamiento de marca, procediendo a un estudio de caso formal. Este estudio se compone inicialmente de la descripción del Banco Davivienda y los países en los que la entidad ingresó tras la adquisición de la operación de HSBC. Posteriormente, se analiza el proceso del Lanzamiento de Marca desde la formulación e implementación de la estrategia hasta la evaluación y análisis de los resultados obtenidos. Por último, se presentan las conclusiones y recomendaciones con base en la teoría, resultados y aprendizajes.

Valor en riesgo del portafolio de TES de los bancos colombianos

En este trabajo se realiza la medición del riesgo de mercado para el portafolio de TES de un banco colombiano determinado, abordando el pronóstico de valor en riesgo (VaR) mediante diferentes modelos multivariados de volatilidad: EWMA, GARCH ortogonal, GARCH robusto, así como distintos modelos de VaR con distribución normal y distribución t-student, evaluando su eficiencia con las metodologías de backtesting propuestas por Candelon et al. (2011) con base en el método generalizado de momentos, junto con los test de independencia y de cobertura condicional planteados por Christoffersen y Pelletier (2004) y por Berkowitz, Christoffersen y Pelletier (2010). Los resultados obtenidos demuestran que la mejor especificación del VaR para la medición del riesgo de mercado del portafolio de TES de los bancos colombianos, es el construido a partir de volatilidades EWMA y basado en la distribución normal, ya que satisface las hipótesis de cobertura no condicional, independencia y cobertura condicional, al igual que los requerimientos estipulados en Basilea II y en la normativa vigente en Colombia.

Estudio de caso. “el papel de los refugiados en la implementación de la política de libre circulación de la cedeao: visto desde el flujo de Liberia a Ghana”

Este estudio de caso tiene como objetivo determinar las implicaciones del flujo de población refugiada en la implementación de la política de libre circulación de la CEDEAO; tomando como referente el flujo desde Liberia hacia Ghana generado por la Guerra Civil. Esta investigación defiende que las implicaciones pueden estar relacionadas a las dinámicas que se asocian al movimiento de personas, las cuales pueden ser negativas o positivas, razón por la cual los Estados pueden reaccionar endureciendo las políticas migratorias, la obtención de permisos laborales y de residencia, y el cierre de fronteras o la expulsión de refugiados; con el fin de evitar consecuencias a nivel político, económico o en materia de seguridad. Para comprobar lo anterior se va a realizará un análisis de texto, sobre posiciones nacionales y políticas comunitarias, así como una revisión de estudios y estadísticas relacionados con el tema.

Tratado de libre comercio entre Colombia e Israel. Perspectivas generales y oportunidades para el sector agrícola colombiano

Las estrategias tendientes a la diversificación de los mercados de exportación e internacionalización de la economía por parte del gobierno colombiano y sus políticas gubernamentales han incluido la firma de una serie de Tratados de Libre Comercio, entre ellos el TLC de última generación firmado con El Estado de Israel. Estos tratados además de abordar temas tradicionales de comercio, tratan nuevos capítulos en inversiones y servicios. Así mismo se analizan las principales políticas por parte del gobierno de Israel para la competitividad en términos empresariales y sociales. Más adelante se consideran aspectos generales de la economía colombiana y se analiza la relación comercial bilateral entre el Estado de Israel y la República de Colombia para entender su comportamiento histórico y el ambiente actual. Finalmente se hace un énfasis en el sector agrícola de Israel y sus aspectos que lo han dirigido al éxito, una observación corta del sector en Colombia y luego aspectos adicionales para a facilitación del comercio con Israel. El estudio va dirigido a empresarios, compañías o entes públicos a nivel local e internacional que vean en el sector agrícola colombiano una oportunidad de desarrollo, aprovechando los beneficios de comercio y conocimiento, con el objetivo de mejorar la competitividad y productividad del sector en Colombia. Se utilizan metodologías tanto cuantitativas como cualitativas para la investigación y análisis de caso tomando la información correspondiente de fuentes verídicas e independientes para así poder reseñar y describir las oportunidades y retos del sector agrícola.

Modeling the monetary policy reaction function of the colombian central bank

This paper proposes a simple Ordered Probit model to analyse the monetary policy reaction function of the Colombian Central Bank. There is evidence that the reaction function is asymmetric, in the sense that the Bank increases the Bank rate when the gap between observed inflation and the inflation target (lagged once) is positive, but it does not reduce the Bank rate when the gap is negative. This behaviour suggests that the Bank is more interested in fulfilling the announced inflation target rather than in reducing inflation excessively. The forecasting performance of the model, both within and beyond the estimation period, appears to be particularly good.

Intra-Euro rebalancing is inevitable, but insufficient. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/15, August 2012

Greece, Portugal and Spain face a serious risk of external solvency due to their close to minus 100 percent of GDP net negative international investment positions, which are largely composed of debt. The perceived inability of these countries to rebalance their external positions is a major root of the euro crisis. Intra-euro rebalancing through declines in unit labour costs (ULC) in southern Europe, and ULC increases in northern Europe should continue, but has limits because: The share of intra-euro trade has declined. Intra-euro trade balances have already adjusted to a great extent. The intra-euro real exchange rates of Greece, Portugal and Spain have also either already adjusted or do not indicate significant appreciations since 2000. There are only two main current account surplus countries, Germany and the Netherlands. A purely intra-euro adjustment strategy would require too-significant wage increases in northern countries and wage declines in southern countries, which do not seem to be feasible. Before the crisis, the euro was significantly overvalued despite the close-to balanced current account position. The euro has depreciated recently, but more is needed to support the extra-euro trade of southern euro-area members. A weaker euro would also boost exports, growth, inflation and wage increases in Germany, thereby helping further intra-euro adjustment and the survival of the euro.

A sovereign wealth fund to lift Germany's curse of excess savings. CEPS Policy Brief No. 280, 28 August 2012

As an alternative to the present system of intermediation of the German savings surplus, this paper suggests that the risk-adjusted rate of return could be improved by creating a sovereign wealth fund for Germany (designated DESWF), which could invest excess German savings globally. Such a DESWF would offer German savers a secure vehicle paying a guaranteed positive minimum real interest rate, with a top-up when real investment returns allowed. The vehicle would invest the funds in a portfolio that is highly diversified by geography and asset classes. Positive real returns can be expected in the long run based on positive real global growth. Since, in this case, a significant amount of funds would flow outside the euro area, the euro would depreciate, which would help crisis countries presently struggling to revive growth through exports and to close their external deficits so as to recoup their international credit-worthiness. Target imbalances would gradually disappear and German claims abroad would move from nominal claims on the ECB to diversified real and nominal claims on various private and public foreign entities in a variety of asset classes.

The euro crisis: ten roots, but fewer solutions. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/17, October 2012

Many factors have contributed to the euro crisis. Some have been addressed by policymakers, even if belatedly, and European Union member states have been willing to improve the functioning of the euro area by agreeing to relinquish national sovereignty in some important areas. However, the most pressing issue threatening the integrity, even the existence, of the euro, has not been addressed: the deepening economic contraction in southern euro-area member states. The common interest lies in preserving the integrity of the euro area and in offering these countries improved prospects. Domestic structural reform and appropriate fiscal consolidation, wage increases and slower fiscal consolidation in economically stronger euro-area countries, a weaker euro exchange rate, debt restructuring and an investment programme should be part of the arsenal. In the medium term, more institutional change will be necessary to complement the planned overhaul of the euro area institutional framework. This will include the deployment of a euro-area economic stabilising tool, managing the overall fiscal stance of the euro area, some form of Eurobonds and measures to make euro-area level decision making bodies more effective and democratically legitimate.

Towards an improved and more flexible representation of water stress in coupled photosynthesis–stomatal conductance models

Coupled photosynthesis–stomatal conductance (A–gs) models are commonly used in ecosystem models to represent the exchange rate of CO2 and H2O between vegetation and the atmosphere. The ways these models account for water stress differ greatly among modelling schemes. This study provides insight into the impact of contrasting model configurations of water stress on the simulated leaf-level values of net photosynthesis (A), stomatal conductance (gs), the functional relationship among them and their ratio, the intrinsic water use efficiency (A/gs), as soil dries. A simple, yet versatile, normalized soil moisture dependent function was used to account for the effects of water stress on gs, on mesophyll conductance (gm) and on the biochemical capacity. Model output was compared to leaf-level values obtained from the literature. The sensitivity analyses emphasized the necessity to combine both stomatal and non-stomatal limitations of A in coupled A–gs models to accurately capture the observed functional relationships A vs. gs and A/gsvs. gs in response to drought. Accounting for water stress in coupled A–gs models by imposing either stomatal or biochemical limitations of A, as commonly practiced in most ecosystem models, failed to reproduce the observed functional relationship between key leaf gas exchange attributes. A quantitative limitation analysis revealed that the general pattern of C3 photosynthetic response to water stress may be well represented in coupled A–gs models by imposing the highest limitation strength to gm, then to gs and finally to the biochemical capacity.

Fixing the currency: analysing the implications for property investment performance

This paper analyses the historic effects of exchange rate movements on returns, risk and diversification of office markets within the Euro zone in order to gain insights into the investment consequences of conversion to a fixed rate currency regime. The data used in the study represents annual office rental growth rates for 22 European cities from nine European Union countries between 1985 and 1996. Relative performance is reported in terms of domestic currency and in terms of deutsche marks. The evidence presented suggests that Euro zone property investors in ‘southern’ countries are now protected from short term jump risk associated with flexible peg currency arrangements and medium/long-term currency volatility. Historically exchange rate movements have produced decreases in returns and increases in volatility. For northern ‘bloc’ cities, the effects of fixing the exchange rate are minimal. For these cities, national exchange rate fluctuations against the deutsche mark have been minor and the resultant implications for property risk and return to non-domestic SCA investors have been negligible. Moreover, although previous research would suggest that the effect of currency volatility is to decrease market correlation, this cannot be observed within the Euro zone.

Economic transformation in Ghana: where will the path lead?

In the context of the Ghanaian government’s objective of structural transformation with an emphasis on manufacturing, this paper provides a case study of economic transformation in Ghana, exploring patterns of growth, sectoral transformation, and agglomeration. We document and examine why, despite impressive growth and poverty reduction figures, Ghana’s economy has exhibited less transformation than might be expected for a country that has recently achieved middle-income status. Ghana’s reduced share of agriculture in the economy, unlike many successfully transformed countries in Asia and Latin America, has been filled by services, while manufacturing has stagnated and even declined. Likely causes include weak transformation of the agricultural sector and therefore little development of agroprocessing, the emergence of consumption cities and consumption-driven growth, upward pressure on the exchange rate, weak production linkages, and a poor environment for private-sector-led manufacturing.

Finite sample weighting of recursive forecast errors

This paper proposes and tests a new framework for weighting recursive out-of-sample prediction errors according to their corresponding levels of in-sample estimation uncertainty. In essence, we show how to use the maximum possible amount of information from the sample in the evaluation of the prediction accuracy, by commencing the forecasts at the earliest opportunity and weighting the prediction errors. Via a Monte Carlo study, we demonstrate that the proposed framework selects the correct model from a set of candidate models considerably more often than the existing standard approach when only a small sample is available. We also show that the proposed weighting approaches result in tests of equal predictive accuracy that have much better sizes than the standard approach. An application to an exchange rate dataset highlights relevant differences in the results of tests of predictive accuracy based on the standard approach versus the framework proposed in this paper.

Economic Transformation in Ghana: Where Will the Path Lead?

In the context of the Ghanaian government’s objective of structural transformation with an emphasis on manufacturing, this paper provides a case study of economic transformation in Ghana, exploring patterns of growth, sector transformation, and agglomeration. We document and examine why, despite impressive growth and poverty reduction figures, Ghana’s economy has exhibited less transformation than might be expected for a country that has recently achieved middle-income status. Ghana’s reduced share of agriculture in the economy, unlike many successfully transformed countries in Asia and Latin America, has been filled by services, while manufacturing has stagnated and even declined. Likely causes include weak transformation of the agricultural sector and therefore little development of agro-processing, the emergence of “consumption cities” and consumption-driven growth, upward pressure on the exchange rate, weak production linkages, and a poor environment for private-sector-led manufacturing.

Testing linear cointegration against smooth-transition cointegration

This paper studies a smooth-transition (ST) type cointegration. The proposed ST cointegration allows for regime switching structure in a cointegrated system. It nests the linear cointegration developed by Engle and Granger (1987) and the threshold cointegration studied by Balke and Fomby (1997). We develop F-type tests to examine linear cointegration against ST cointegration in ST-type cointegrating regression models with or without time trends. The null asymptotic distributions of the tests are derived with stationary transition variables in ST cointegrating regression models. And it is shown that our tests have nonstandard limiting distributions expressed in terms of standard Brownian motion when regressors are pure random walks, while have standard asymptotic distributions when regressors contain random walks with nonzero drift. Finite-sample distributions of those tests are studied by Monto Carlo simulations. The small-sample performance of the tests states that our F-type tests have a better power when the system contains ST cointegration than when the system is linearly cointegrated. An empirical example for the purchasing power parity (PPP) data (monthly US dollar, Italy lira and dollar-lira exchange rate from 1973:01 to 1989:10) is illustrated by applying the testing procedures in this paper. It is found that there is no linear cointegration in the system, but there exits the ST-type cointegration in the PPP data.