960 resultados para Real Electricity Markets Data


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Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV

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This research aimed to develop a Fuzzy inference based on expert system to help preventing lameness in dairy cattle. Hoof length, nutritional parameters and floor material properties (roughness) were used to build the Fuzzy inference system. The expert system architecture was defined using Unified Modelling Language (UML). Data were collected in a commercial dairy herd using two different subgroups (H-1 and H-2), in order to validate the Fuzzy inference functions. The numbers of True Positive (TP), False Positive (FP), True Negative (TN), and False Negative (FN) responses were used to build the classifier system up, after an established gold standard comparison. A Lesion Incidence Possibility (LIP) developed function indicates the chances of a cow becoming lame. The obtained lameness percentage in H-1 and H-2 was 8.40% and 1.77%, respectively. The system estimated a Lesion Incidence Possibility (LIP) of 5.00% and 2.00% in H-1 and H-2, respectively. The system simulation presented 3.40% difference from real cattle lameness data for H-1, while for H-2, it was 0.23%; indicating the system efficiency in decision-making.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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In the next decades, aging farmers in the United States will make decisions that affect almost 1 billion acres of land. The future of this land will become more uncertain as farm transfer becomes more difficult, potentially changing the structure of agriculture through farm consolidation, changes in farm ownership and management, or taking land out of production. The Great Plains Population and Environment Project interviewed farmers and their spouses between 1997 and 1999. Farm Family Survey participants were ambiguous about their plans to leave farming, transfer land to others, and even long-term land use, largely due to concerns about the continued economic viability of farming. Participants living far from metropolitan areas expected to sell or rent to other farmers, while those near residential real-estate markets expected to sell to developers. Delays in planning for retirement and succession were common, further threatening the success of intergenerational transitions.

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Many recent survival studies propose modeling data with a cure fraction, i.e., data in which part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This event may occur more than once for the same individual (recurrent event). We then have a scenario of recurrent event data in the presence of a cure fraction, which may appear in various areas such as oncology, finance, industries, among others. This paper proposes a multiple time scale survival model to analyze recurrent events using a cure fraction. The objective is analyzing the efficiency of certain interventions so that the studied event will not happen again in terms of covariates and censoring. All estimates were obtained using a sampling-based approach, which allows information to be input beforehand with lower computational effort. Simulations were done based on a clinical scenario in order to observe some frequentist properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of small and moderate sample sizes. An application of a well-known set of real mammary tumor data is provided.

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Hypoxia is one of many factors involved in the regulation of the IGF system. However, no information is available regarding the regulation of the IGF system by acute hypoxia in humans. Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of acute hypoxia on the IGF system of children. Design: Twenty-seven previously health children (14 boys and 13 girls) aged 15 days to 9.5 years were studied in two different situations: during a hypoxemic state (HS) due to acute respiratory distress and after full recovery to a normoxemic state (NS). In these two situations oxygen saturation was assessed with a pulse-oximeter and blood samples were collected for serum IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-3, ALS and insulin determination by ELISA; fluoroimmunometric assay determination for GH and also for IGF1R gene expression analysis in peripheral lymphocytes by quantitative real-time PCR. Data were paired and analyzed by the Wilcoxon non-parametric test. Results: Oxygen saturation was significantly lower during HS than in NS (P<0.0001). IGF-I and IGF-II levels were lower during HS than in NS (P<0.0001 and P=0.0004. respectively). IGFBP-3 levels were also lower in HS than in NS (P=0.0002) while ALS and basal GH levels were higher during HS (P=0.0015 and P=0.014, respectively). Moreover, IGFBP-1 levels were higher during HS than in NS (P=0.004). No difference was found regarding insulin levels. The expression of IGF1R mRNA as 2(-Delta Delta CT) was higher during HS than in NS (P=0.03). Conclusion: The above results confirm a role of hypoxia in the regulation of the IGF system also in humans. This effect could be direct on the liver and/or mediated by GH and it is not restricted to the hepatocytes but involves other cell lines. During acute hypoxia a combination of alterations usually associated with reduced IGF action was observed. The higher expression of IGF1R mRNA may reflect an up-regulation of the transcriptional process. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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With the financial market globalization, foreign investments became vital for the economies, mainly in emerging countries. In the last decades, Brazilian exchange rates appeared as a good indicator to measure either investors' confidence or risk aversion. Here, some events of global or national financial crisis are analyzed, trying to understand how they influenced the "dollar-real" rate evolution. The theoretical tool to be used is the Lopez-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) complexity measure that, applied to real exchange rate data, has shown good fitness between critical events and measured patterns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Im Jahre 1997 wurden von Tatischeff et al. bei der Reaktion p p -> X p pi+ resonanzartige Zustände im Spektrum der invarianten Masse des fehlenden Nukleons X bei M = 1004, 1044 und 1094 MeV gefunden. In einem zweiten Experiment von Filkov et al. beobachtete man bei der Reaktion p d -> p p X Resonanzstrukturen bei M = 966, 986 und 1003 MeV. Solche exotischen Resonanzen widersprechen etablierten Nukleonenmodellen, die die Delta(1232)-Resonanz als ersten Anregungszustand beschreiben. Zur Deutung der beobachteten Strukturen wurden Quarkcluster-Modelle mit und ohne Farb-Magnet-Wechselwirkungen entwickelt. Lvov et al. zweifelten die experimentellen Ergebnisse an, da keine Strukturen in den Daten zur reellen Comptonstreuung gefunden wurden. Als Gegenargument wurde von Kobushkin vorgeschlagen, dass diese Resonanzen eine total-antisymmetrische Spin-Flavour-Wellenfunktion haben und nur der N-2Gamma-Zerfall erlaubt wäre. In dieser Arbeit wurde die Reaktion g p -> X pi+ -> n g g pi+ zur Suche nach diesen exotischen Resonanzen verwendet. Die Daten wurden parallel zur Messung der Pion-Polarisierbarkeiten am Mainzer Beschleuniger MAMI genommen. Durch Bremsstrahlung der Elektronen an einer Radiatorfolie wurden reelle Photonen erzeugt, deren Energie von der A2-Photonenmarkierungsanlage (Glasgow-Tagger) bestimmt wurde. Als Protontarget wurde ein 10 cm langes Flüssigwasserstoff-Target verwendet. Geladene Reaktionsprodukte wurden unter Vorwärtswinkeln Theta < 20 Grad bezüglich der Strahlachse in einer Vieldraht-Proportionalkammer nachgewiesen, während Photonen im Spektrometer TAPS mit 526 BaF2-Kristallen unter Polarwinkeln Theta > 60 Grad detektiert wurden. Zum Nachweis von Neutronen stand ein Flugzeitdetektor mit insgesamt 111 Einzelmodulen zur Verfügung. Zum Test der Analysesoftware und des experimentellen Aufbaus wurden zusätzlich die Reaktionskanäle g p -> p pi0 und g p -> n pi0 pi+ ausgewertet. Für die Ein-Pion-Produktion wurden differentielle Wirkungsquerschnitte unter Rückwärtswinkeln bestimmt und mit theoretischen Modellen und experimentellen Werten verglichen. Für den Kanal g p -> n pi0 pi+ wurden Spektren invarianter Massen für verschiedene Teilchenkombinationen ermittelt und mit einer Simulation verglichen. Die Daten legen nahe, dass die Reaktion hauptsächlich über eine Anregung der Delta0(1232)-Resonanz verläuft. Bei der Suche nach exotischen Resonanzen wurden keine statistisch signifikanten Strukturen gefunden. Es wurden Obergrenzen für den differentiellen Wirkungsquerschnitt ermittelt.

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One of the most interesting challenge of the next years will be the Air Space Systems automation. This process will involve different aspects as the Air Traffic Management, the Aircrafts and Airport Operations and the Guidance and Navigation Systems. The use of UAS (Uninhabited Aerial System) for civil mission will be one of the most important steps in this automation process. In civil air space, Air Traffic Controllers (ATC) manage the air traffic ensuring that a minimum separation between the controlled aircrafts is always provided. For this purpose ATCs use several operative avoidance techniques like holding patterns or rerouting. The use of UAS in these context will require the definition of strategies for a common management of piloted and piloted air traffic that allow the UAS to self separate. As a first employment in civil air space we consider a UAS surveillance mission that consists in departing from a ground base, taking pictures over a set of mission targets and coming back to the same ground base. During all mission a set of piloted aircrafts fly in the same airspace and thus the UAS has to self separate using the ATC avoidance as anticipated. We consider two objective, the first consists in the minimization of the air traffic impact over the mission, the second consists in the minimization of the impact of the mission over the air traffic. A particular version of the well known Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) called Time-Dependant-TSP has been studied to deal with traffic problems in big urban areas. Its basic idea consists in a cost of the route between two clients depending on the period of the day in which it is crossed. Our thesis supports that such idea can be applied to the air traffic too using a convenient time horizon compatible with aircrafts operations. The cost of a UAS sub-route will depend on the air traffic that it will meet starting such route in a specific moment and consequently on the avoidance maneuver that it will use to avoid that conflict. The conflict avoidance is a topic that has been hardly developed in past years using different approaches. In this thesis we purpose a new approach based on the use of ATC operative techniques that makes it possible both to model the UAS problem using a TDTSP framework both to use an Air Traffic Management perspective. Starting from this kind of mission, the problem of the UAS insertion in civil air space is formalized as the UAS Routing Problem (URP). For this reason we introduce a new structure called Conflict Graph that makes it possible to model the avoidance maneuvers and to define the arc cost function of the departing time. Two Integer Linear Programming formulations of the problem are proposed. The first is based on a TDTSP formulation that, unfortunately, is weaker then the TSP formulation. Thus a new formulation based on a TSP variation that uses specific penalty to model the holdings is proposed. Different algorithms are presented: exact algorithms, simple heuristics used as Upper Bounds on the number of time steps used, and metaheuristic algorithms as Genetic Algorithm and Simulated Annealing. Finally an air traffic scenario has been simulated using real air traffic data in order to test our algorithms. Graphic Tools have been used to represent the Milano Linate air space and its air traffic during different days. Such data have been provided by ENAV S.p.A (Italian Agency for Air Navigation Services).

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Il problema dell'antibiotico-resistenza è un problema di sanità pubblica per affrontare il quale è necessario un sistema di sorveglianza basato sulla raccolta e l'analisi dei dati epidemiologici di laboratorio. Il progetto di dottorato è consistito nello sviluppo di una applicazione web per la gestione di tali dati di antibiotico sensibilità di isolati clinici utilizzabile a livello di ospedale. Si è creata una piattaforma web associata a un database relazionale per avere un’applicazione dinamica che potesse essere aggiornata facilmente inserendo nuovi dati senza dover manualmente modificare le pagine HTML che compongono l’applicazione stessa. E’ stato utilizzato il database open-source MySQL in quanto presenta numerosi vantaggi: estremamente stabile, elevate prestazioni, supportato da una grande comunità online ed inoltre gratuito. Il contenuto dinamico dell’applicazione web deve essere generato da un linguaggio di programmazione tipo “scripting” che automatizzi operazioni di inserimento, modifica, cancellazione, visualizzazione di larghe quantità di dati. E’ stato scelto il PHP, linguaggio open-source sviluppato appositamente per la realizzazione di pagine web dinamiche, perfettamente utilizzabile con il database MySQL. E’ stata definita l’architettura del database creando le tabelle contenenti i dati e le relazioni tra di esse: le anagrafiche, i dati relativi ai campioni, microrganismi isolati e agli antibiogrammi con le categorie interpretative relative al dato antibiotico. Definite tabelle e relazioni del database è stato scritto il codice associato alle funzioni principali: inserimento manuale di antibiogrammi, importazione di antibiogrammi multipli provenienti da file esportati da strumenti automatizzati, modifica/eliminazione degli antibiogrammi precedenti inseriti nel sistema, analisi dei dati presenti nel database con tendenze e andamenti relativi alla prevalenza di specie microbiche e alla chemioresistenza degli stessi, corredate da grafici. Lo sviluppo ha incluso continui test delle funzioni via via implementate usando reali dati clinici e sono stati introdotti appositi controlli e l’introduzione di una semplice e pulita veste grafica.

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Falls are caused by complex interaction between multiple risk factors which may be modified by age, disease and environment. A variety of methods and tools for fall risk assessment have been proposed, but none of which is universally accepted. Existing tools are generally not capable of providing a quantitative predictive assessment of fall risk. The need for objective, cost-effective and clinically applicable methods would enable quantitative assessment of fall risk on a subject-specific basis. Tracking objectively falls risk could provide timely feedback about the effectiveness of administered interventions enabling intervention strategies to be modified or changed if found to be ineffective. Moreover, some of the fundamental factors leading to falls and what actually happens during a fall remain unclear. Objectively documented and measured falls are needed to improve knowledge of fall in order to develop more effective prevention strategies and prolong independent living. In the last decade, several research groups have developed sensor-based automatic or semi-automatic fall risk assessment tools using wearable inertial sensors. This approach may also serve to detect falls. At the moment, i) several fall-risk assessment studies based on inertial sensors, even if promising, lack of a biomechanical model-based approach which could provide accurate and more detailed measurements of interests (e.g., joint moments, forces) and ii) the number of published real-world fall data of older people in a real-world environment is minimal since most authors have used simulations with healthy volunteers as a surrogate for real-world falls. With these limitations in mind, this thesis aims i) to suggest a novel method for the kinematics and dynamics evaluation of functional motor tasks, often used in clinics for the fall-risk evaluation, through a body sensor network and a biomechanical approach and ii) to define the guidelines for a fall detection algorithm based on a real-world fall database availability.

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Mycoplasma conjunctivae, the causative agent of infectious keratoconjunctivitis (IKC), was recently detected in asymptomatic Alpine ibex (Capra ibex ibex). This suggested that an external source of infection may not be required for an IKC outbreak in wildlife but might be initiated by healthy carriers, which contradicted previous serologic investigations in chamois. Our aims were to 1) assess the prevalence of M. conjunctivae among asymptomatic ibex and Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra rupicapra) and its frequency in IKC-affected animals, 2) determine mycoplasma loads in different disease stages, and 3) characterize the M. conjunctivae strains involved. Eye swabs from 654 asymptomatic and 204 symptomatic animals were collected in diverse Swiss regions between 2008 and 2010, and tested by TaqMan real-time PCR. Data analysis was performed considering various patterns of IKC occurrence in the respective sampling regions. Strains from 24 animals were compared by cluster analysis. Prevalence of M. conjunctivae was 5.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.7-8.1%) in asymptomatic ibex and 5.8% (CI: 3.0-9.9%) in asymptomatic chamois, with significant differences between years and regions in both species. Detection frequency in symptomatic animals was significantly higher during IKC outbreaks than in nonepidemic situations (i.e., regular but low incidence or sporadic occurrence). Mycoplasma load was significantly lower in eyes from healthy carriers and animals with mild signs than from animals with moderate and severe signs. Although some strains were found in both asymptomatic and diseased animals of the same species, others apparently differed in their pathogenic potential depending on the infected species. Overall, we found a widespread occurrence of M. conjunctivae in wild Caprinae with and without IKC signs. Our results confirm the central role of M. conjunctivae in outbreaks but suggest that other infectious agents may be involved in IKC cases in nonepidemic situations. Additionally, presence and severity of signs are related to the quantity of M. conjunctivae in the eyes rather than to the strain. We propose that individual or environmental factors influence the clinical expression of the disease and that persistence of M. conjunctivae in populations of wild Caprinae cannot be excluded.

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Digital technologies have often been perceived as imperilling traditional cultural expressions (TCE). This angst has interlinked technical and socio-cultural dimensions. On the technical side, it is related to the affordances of digital media that allow, among other things, instantaneous access to information without real location constraints, data transport at the speed of light and effortless reproduction of the original without any loss of quality. In a socio-cultural context, digital technologies have been regarded as the epitome of globalisation forces - not only driving and deepening the process of globalisation itself but also spreading its effects. The present article examines the validity of these claims and sketches a number of ways in which digital technologies may act as benevolent factors. We illustrate in particular that some digital technologies can be instrumentalised to protect TCE forms, reflecting more appropriately the specificities of TCE as a complex process of creation of identity and culture. The article also seeks to reveal that digital technologies - and more specifically the Internet and the World Wide Web - have had a profound impact on the ways cultural content is created, disseminated, accessed and consumed. We argue that this environment may have generated various opportunities for better accommodating TCE, especially in their dynamic sense of human creativity.

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Recurrent wheezing or asthma is a common problem in children that has increased considerably in prevalence in the past few decades. The causes and underlying mechanisms are poorly understood and it is thought that a numb er of distinct diseases causing similar symptoms are involved. Due to the lack of a biologically founded classification system, children are classified according to their observed disease related features (symptoms, signs, measurements) into phenotypes. The objectives of this PhD project were a) to develop tools for analysing phenotypic variation of a disease, and b) to examine phenotypic variability of wheezing among children by applying these tools to existing epidemiological data. A combination of graphical methods (multivariate co rrespondence analysis) and statistical models (latent variables models) was used. In a first phase, a model for discrete variability (latent class model) was applied to data on symptoms and measurements from an epidemiological study to identify distinct phenotypes of wheezing. In a second phase, the modelling framework was expanded to include continuous variability (e.g. along a severity gradient) and combinations of discrete and continuo us variability (factor models and factor mixture models). The third phase focused on validating the methods using simulation studies. The main body of this thesis consists of 5 articles (3 published, 1 submitted and 1 to be submitted) including applications, methodological contributions and a review. The main findings and contributions were: 1) The application of a latent class model to epidemiological data (symptoms and physiological measurements) yielded plausible pheno types of wheezing with distinguishing characteristics that have previously been used as phenotype defining characteristics. 2) A method was proposed for including responses to conditional questions (e.g. questions on severity or triggers of wheezing are asked only to children with wheeze) in multivariate modelling.ii 3) A panel of clinicians was set up to agree on a plausible model for wheezing diseases. The model can be used to generate datasets for testing the modelling approach. 4) A critical review of methods for defining and validating phenotypes of wheeze in children was conducted. 5) The simulation studies showed that a parsimonious parameterisation of the models is required to identify the true underlying structure of the data. The developed approach can deal with some challenges of real-life cohort data such as variables of mixed mode (continuous and categorical), missing data and conditional questions. If carefully applied, the approach can be used to identify whether the underlying phenotypic variation is discrete (classes), continuous (factors) or a combination of these. These methods could help improve precision of research into causes and mechanisms and contribute to the development of a new classification of wheezing disorders in children and other diseases which are difficult to classify.