893 resultados para Rational expectations
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Introduction Recruiting and retaining volunteers who are prepared to make a long-term commitment is a major problem for Swiss sports clubs. With the inclusion of external counselling for the change and systematisation of volunteer management, sports clubs have a possibility to develop and defuse problems in spite of existing barriers and gaps in knowledge. To what extent is external counselling for personnel problems effective? It is often observed that standardised counselling inputs lead to varying consequences for sports clubs. It can be assumed that external impulses are interpreted and transformed differently into the workings of the club. However, this cannot be solely attributed to the situational or structural conditions of the clubs. It is also important to consider the underlying decision-making processes of a club. According to Luhmann’s organisational sociological considerations (2000), organisations (sports clubs) have to be viewed as social systems consisting of (communicated) decisions. This means that organisations are continually reproduced by decision-making processes. All other (observable) factors such as an organisation’s goals, recruiting strategies, support schemes for volunteers etc., have to be seen as an outcome of the operation of prior organisational decisions. Therefore: How do decision-making processes in sports clubs work in the context of the implementation of external counselling? Theoretical Framework An examination of the actual situation in sports clubs shows that decisions frequently appear to be shaped by inconsistency, unexpected outcomes, and randomness (Amis & Slack, 2003). Therefore, it must be emphasised that these decisions cannot be analysed according to any rational decision-making model. Their specific structural characteristics only permit a limited degree of rationality – bounded rationality. Non-profit organisations in particular are shaped by a specific mode of decisionmaking that Cohen, March, and Olsen (1972) have called the “garbage can model”. As sport clubs can also be conceived as “organised anarchies”, this model seems to offer an appropriate approach to understanding their practices and analysing their decision-making processes. The key concept in the garbage can model is the assumption that decision-making processes in organisations consist of four “streams”: (a) problems, (b) actors, (c) decision-making opportunities, and (d) solutions. Method Before presenting the method of the analysis of the decision-making processes in sports clubs, the external counselling will be described. The basis of the counselling is generated by a sports clubs’ capability to change. Due to the specific structural characteristics and organisational principles, change processes in sports clubs often merge with barriers and restrictions. These need to be considered when developing counselling guidelines for a successful planning and realisation of change processes. Furthermore, important aspects of personnel management in sports clubs and especially volunteer management must be implied in order to elaborate key elements for the counselling to recruit new volunteers (e.g., approach, expectations). A counselling of four system-counselling workshops was conceptualised by considering these specific characteristics. The decision-making processes in the sports clubs were analysed during the counselling and the implementation process. A case study is designed with the appropriate methodological approach for such explorative research. The approach adopted for these single case analyses was oriented toward the research program of behavioural decision-making theory (garbage can model). This posits that in-depth insights into organisational decision-making processes can only be gained through relevant case studies of existing organisational situations (Skille, 2013). Before, during and after the intervention, questionnaires and guided interviews were conducted with the project teams of the twelve par-ticipating football clubs to assess the different components of the “streams” in the context of external counselling. These interviews have been analysed using content analysis following guidelines as for-mulated by Mayring (2010). Results The findings show that decision-making processes in football clubs occur differently in the context of external counselling. Different initial positions and problems are the triggers for these decision-making processes. Furthermore, the implementation of the solutions and the external counselling is highly dependent on the commitment of certain people as central players within the decision-mak-ing process. The importance of these relationships is confirmed by previous findings in regard to decision-making and change processes in sports clubs. The decision-making processes in sports clubs can be theoretically analysed using behavioural decision-making theory and the “garbage can model”. Bounded rationality characterises all “streams” of the decision-making processes. Moreo-ver, the decision-making process of the football clubs can be well illustrated in the framework, and the interplay of the different dimensions illustrates the different decision-making practices within the football clubs. References Amis, J., & Slack, T. (2003). Analysing sports organisations: Theory and practice. In B. Houlihan (Eds.), Sport & Society (pp. 201–217). London, England: Sage. Cohen, M.D., March, J.G., & Olsen, J.P. (1972). A garbage can model of organisational choice. Ad-ministrative Science Quarterly, 17, 1-25. Luhmann, N. (2000). Organisation und Entscheidung. Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag. Mayring, P. (2010). Qualitative Inhaltsanalyse. Grundlagen und Techniken. Weinheim: Beltz. Skille, E. Å. (2013). Case study research in sport management: A reflection upon the theory of science and an empirical example. In S. Söderman & H. Dolles (Eds.), Handbook of research on sport and business (pp. 161–175). Cheltenham, England: Edward Elgar.
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This paper addresses two major topics concerning the role of expectations in the formation of reference points. First, we show that when expectations are present, they have a significant impact on reference point formation. Second, we find that decision-makers employ expected values when forming reference points (integrated mechanism) as opposed to single possible outcomes (segregated mechanism). Despite the importance of reference points in prospect theory, to date, there is no standard method of examining these. We develop a new experimental design that employs an indirect approach and extends an existing direct approach. Our findings are consistent across the two approaches.
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While most previous research has considered public service motivation (PSM) as the only motivational factor predicting (public) job choice, the authors present a novel, rational choice-based model which includes three motivational dimensions: extrinsic, enjoyment-based intrinsic and prosocial intrinsic. Besides providing more accurate person-job fit predictions, this new approach fills a significant research gap and facilitates future theory building.
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Mainstreaming the LforS approach is a challenge due to dive rging institutional priorities, customs, and expectations of classically traine d staff. A workshop to test LforS theory and practice, and explore how to mainstream it, took place in a concrete context in a rural district of Mozambique, focusing on agricultural, forest and water resources. The evaluation showed that the principles of interaction applied pe rmitted to link rational know ledge with practical experience through mutual learning and iterative self-reflection. The combination of learning techniques was considered usef ul; participants called for further opportunities to apply the LforS methodology, proposing next steps.
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Expectations for what functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) can offer psychophysiology vary greatly. Overreaching enthusiasm such as the idea that fMRI can reveal lies and political attitudes are as common as the opinion that fMRI, in its current form, is useless for the advancement of psychological theories. Errors in the inferences being drawn from fMRI data may be contributing to each of these extreme positions, so the present paper addresses these several common inferential errors and describes some of the potential of fMRI for psychophysiological theory and research.
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How is adolescents’ willingness for intergenerational support affected by parents’ expectations and parenting behavior? Does youths’ willingness for intergenerational support in turn affect parents’ well-being? The current study addresses these questions from a cross-cultural perspective, using data from connected samples of mother-adolescent dyads (N = 4162) from 14 diverse cultural contexts as part of the “Value of Children and Intergenerational Relations Study” (Trommsdorff & Nauck, 2005). The results are based on mixed model analyses (with culture as a random factor). Associations were investigated between family norms (expectations of support by adult children), parenting goals (obedience, independence) and parenting behavior (acceptance, control) reported by mothers and adolescents’ reports on willingness to support (help in household tasks, willingness to tolerate burdens in order to help their parents in case of accident, emotional support given to mothers and fathers). Across cultures, maternal expectations of adult children were positively related to adolescents’ reported household help and their current emotional support to mothers and fathers. Obedience, and control were positively related to the amount of adolescent help in the household, while independence and acceptance were related to a higher willingness to tolerate burdens as well as to higher emotional support given to the mother. Regarding associations between adolescents’ actual and intended intergenerational support with mothers’ life satisfaction, adolescents’ willingness to tolerate burdens was related to a higher maternal life satisfaction while adolescents’ reported household help was not. Adolescents’ current emotional support to fathers (but not to mothers) was also related to higher maternal life satisfaction. While most of the effects were stable across cultures (no significant random slope variance across cultural groups), some effects did significantly vary across cultures. Traditional-vs.-secular values as culture-level characteristics will be discussed as explanation for these culture-specific relations among mothers’ expectations, adolescents’ intergenerational support, and mothers’ life satisfaction.
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In the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, scholars have begun to revise their conceptions of how market participants interact. While the traditional “rationalist optic” posits market participants who are able to process decisionrelevant information and thereby transform uncertainty into quantifiable risks, the increasingly popular “sociological optic” stresses the role of uncertainty in expectation formation and social conventions for creating confidence in markets. Applications of the sociological optic to concrete regulatory problems are still limited. By subjecting both optics to the same regulatory problem—the role of credit rating agencies (CRAs) and their ratings in capital markets—this paper provides insights into whether the sociological optic offers advice to tackle concrete regulatory problems and discusses the potential of the sociological optic in complementing the rationalist optic. The empirical application suggests that the sociological optic is not only able to improve our understanding of the role of CRAs and their ratings, but also to provide solutions complementary to those posited by the rationalist optic.
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BACKGROUND Several studies show yoga may benefit chronic pain management. We investigated the effect of a single yoga session on the perception of pain, measured by a standardized pain provocation test in healthy yoga participants while also comparing pain perception to participants' own expectations. MATERIALS AND METHODS Ninety yoga participants were recruited at hatha yoga schools in Switzerland. Pain perception was measured with a standardized algometric pain provocation test; i.e., a calibrated peg was applied for 10 seconds after which the participant rated pain intensity on a 0-10 numerical rating scale. The test was applied to the middle finger, ear lobe, and second toe before and after a 60-minute yoga session. RESULTS Sixty out of 90 (66.7%) yoga participants expected a reduced pain perception after the yoga session. However, 36 (40%) participants actually experienced less pain after compared to before the yoga session. But overall, pain perception statistically did not significantly change from before to after the yoga session at any of the three body locations assessed. The expectations and also the previous yoga experience did not significantly influence the participants' pain perception. CONCLUSIONS Regardless of the high positive expectations on the influence of yoga on pain, a single yoga session does not significantly influence pain perception induced by a pain provocation test. Hypoalgesic effects of yoga should be explained otherwise.
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Motivation plays a key role in successful entry into working life. Based on a cross-sectional and a one-year longitudinal study, we used a person-centered approach to explore work-related motivation (i.e., autonomous goals, positive affect, and occupational self-efficacy) among 577 students in 8th grade (Study 1) and 949 adolescents in vocational training (Study 2). Based on latent profile analysis, in both studies we identified four groups that were characterized by different levels of overall motivation and one group characterized by low positive affect and mean levels in autonomous goals and self-efficacy. Profiles characterized by high levels of motivation showed the highest levels of positive work expectations and goal engagement and the lowest levels of negative work expectations in Study 1 and the highest levels of person-job fit, work engagement, and job satisfaction in Study 2. Moreover, latent difference score analysis showed that motivational profiles predicted changes in person-job fit and work engagement across one year but not in job satisfaction. The results imply that career counselors should be aware of characteristic motivational patterns of clients that may require specific counseling approaches.
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Recent monetary history has been characterized by monetary authorities which have been, alternatively hard and soft on inflation. In a vintage capital framework, investment decisions are not easily reversed. Therefore, expectations of policy as well as current policy are important to the investment decision. Here, a vintage capital model is used to assess the value of central bank credibility for a policy change. Policy in this model is assumed to be private information of the central banker. Agents learn about that policy which to study the ensuing transitional dynamics following a change in monetary policy regime.
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The transition to high school can be challenging for some adolescents, resulting in drops of academic functioning (Barber & Olsen, 2004; Smith, 2006). While changes in academic demands and the disparity between adolescent needs and the environmental characteristics of high school have both been cited as possible contributors to this decrease in academic and personal functioning (Barber & Olsen, 2004), it is possible that teachers may play an even larger role in undermining these students’ functioning, specifically through labeling. Although labeling, and how it can lead to self-fulfilling prophesies, is a concept that has been thoroughly researched and applied to the field of criminology and deviant behavior, it is the goal of this current study to investigate if labeling also occurs in the classroom setting and how such labels ultimately effect the academic potential of high school students.
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Ecteinascidin 743 (Et-743), which is a novel DNA minor groove alkylator with a unique spectrum of antitumor activity, is currently being evaluated in phase II/III clinical trials. Although the precise molecular mechanisms responsible for the observed antitumor activity are poorly understood, recent data suggests that post-translational modifications of RNA polymerase II Large Subunit (RNAPII LS) may play a central role in the cellular response to this promising anticancer agent. The stalling of an actively transcribing RNAPII LS at Et-743-DNA adducts is the initial cellular signal for transcription-coupled nucleotide excision repair (TC-NER). In this manner, Et-743 poisons TC-NER and produces DNA single strand breaks. Et-743 also inhibits the transcription and RNAPII LS-mediated expression of selected genes. Because the poisoning of TC-NER and transcription inhibition are critical components of the molecular response to Et-743 treatment, we have investigated if changes in RNAPII LS contribute to the disruption of these two cellular pathways. In addition, we have studied changes in RNAPII LS in two tumors for which clinical responses were reported in phase I/II clinical trials: renal cell carcinoma and Ewing's sarcoma. Our results demonstrate that Et-743 induces degradation of the RNAPII LS that is dependent on active transcription, a functional 26S proteasome, and requires functional TC-NER, but not global genome repair. Additionally, we have provided the first experimental data indicating that degradation of RNAPII LS might lead to the inhibition of activated gene transcription. A set of studies performed in isogenic renal carcinoma cells deficient in von Hippel-Lindau protein, which is a ubiquitin-E3-ligase for RNAPII LS, confirmed the central role of RNAPII LS degradation in the sensitivity to Et-743. Finally, we have shown that RNAPII LS is also degraded in Ewing's sarcoma tumors following Et-743 treatment and provide data to suggest that this event plays a role in decreased expression of the Ewing's sarcoma oncoprotein, EWS-Fli1. Altogether, these data implicate degradation of RNAPII LS as a critical event following Et-743 exposure and suggest that the clinical activity observed in renal carcinoma and Ewing's sarcoma may be mediated by disruption of molecular pathways requiring a fully functional RNAPII LS. ^