968 resultados para Randomization-based Inference


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In the last decades, the air traffic system has been changing to adapt itself to new social demands, mainly the safe growth of worldwide traffic capacity. Those changes are ruled by the Communication, Navigation, Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) paradigm, based on digital communication technologies (mainly satellites) as a way of improving communication, surveillance, navigation and air traffic management services. However, CNS/ATM poses new challenges and needs, mainly related to the safety assessment process. In face of these new challenges, and considering the main characteristics of the CNS/ATM, a methodology is proposed at this work by combining ""absolute"" and ""relative"" safety assessment methods adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in ICAO Doc.9689 [14], using Fluid Stochastic Petri Nets (FSPN) as the modeling formalism, and compares the safety metrics estimated from the simulation of both the proposed (in analysis) and the legacy system models. To demonstrate its usefulness, the proposed methodology was applied to the ""Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcasting"" (ADS-B) based air traffic control system. As conclusions, the proposed methodology assured to assess CNS/ATM system safety properties, in which FSPN formalism provides important modeling capabilities, and discrete event simulation allowing the estimation of the desired safety metric. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This paper presents a new methodology to estimate unbalanced harmonic distortions in a power system, based on measurements of a limited number of given sites. The algorithm utilizes evolutionary strategies (ES), a development branch of evolutionary algorithms. The problem solving algorithm herein proposed makes use of data from various power quality meters, which can either be synchronized by high technology GPS devices or by using information from a fundamental frequency load flow, what makes the overall power quality monitoring system much less costly. The ES based harmonic estimation model is applied to a 14 bus network to compare its performance to a conventional Monte Carlo approach. It is also applied to a 50 bus subtransmission network in order to compare the three-phase and single-phase approaches as well as the robustness of the proposed method. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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An efficient expert system for the power transformer condition assessment is presented in this paper. Through the application of Duval`s triangle and the method of the gas ratios a first assessment of the transformer condition is obtained in the form of a dissolved gas analysis (DGA) diagnosis according IEC 60599. As a second step, a knowledge mining procedure is performed, by conducting surveys whose results are fed into a first Type-2 Fuzzy Logic System (T2-FLS), in order to initially evaluate the condition of the equipment taking only the results of dissolved gas analysis into account. The output of this first T2-FLS is used as the input of a second T2-FLS, which additionally weighs up the condition of the paper-oil system. The output of this last T2-FLS is given in terms of words easily understandable by the maintenance personnel. The proposed assessing methodology has been validated for several cases of transformers in service. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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A new, simple approach for modeling and assessing the operation and response of the multiline voltage-source controller (VSC)-based flexible ac transmission system controllers, namely the generalized interline power-flow controller (GIPFC) and the interline power-flow controller (IPFC), is presented in this paper. The model and the analysis developed are based on the converters` power balance method which makes use of the d-q orthogonal coordinates to thereafter present a direct solution for these controllers through a quadratic equation. The main constraints and limitations that such devices present while controlling the two independent ac systems considered, will also be evaluated. In order to examine and validate the steady-state model initially proposed, a phase-shift VSC-based GIPFC was also built in the Alternate Transients Program program whose results are also included in this paper. Where applicable, a comparative evaluation between the GIPFC and the IPFC is also presented.

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The proposed method to analyze the composition of the cost of electricity is based on the energy conversion processes and the destruction of the exergy through the several thermodynamic processes that comprise a combined cycle power plant. The method uses thermoeconomics to evaluate and allocate the cost of exergy throughout the processes, considering costs related to inputs and investment in equipment. Although the concept may be applied to any combined cycle or cogeneration plant, this work develops only the mathematical modeling for three-pressure heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) configurations and total condensation of the produced steam. It is possible to study any n x 1 plant configuration (n sets of gas turbine and HRSGs associated to one steam turbine generator and condenser) with the developed model, assuming that every train operates identically and in steady state. The presented model was conceived from a complex configuration of a real power plant, over which variations may be applied in order to adapt it to a defined configuration under study [Borelli SJS. Method for the analysis of the composition of electricity costs in combined cycle thermoelectric power plants. Master in Energy Dissertation, Interdisciplinary Program of Energy, Institute of Eletro-technical and Energy, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2005 (in Portuguese)]. The variations and adaptations include, for instance, use of reheat, supplementary firing and partial load operation. It is also possible to undertake sensitivity analysis on geometrical equipment parameters. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The paper presents the development of a mechanical actuator using a shape memory alloy with a cooling system based on the thermoelectric effect (Seebeck-Peltier effect). Such a method has the advantage of reduced weight and requires a simpler control strategy as compared to other forced cooling systems. A complete mathematical model of the actuator was derived, and an experimental prototype was implemented. Several experiments are used to validate the model and to identify all parameters. A robust and nonlinear controller, based on sliding-mode theory, was derived and implemented. Experiments were used to evaluate the actuator closed-loop performance, stability, and robustness properties. The results showed that the proposed cooling system and controller are able to improve the dynamic response of the actuator. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This work explores the design of piezoelectric transducers based on functional material gradation, here named functionally graded piezoelectric transducer (FGPT). Depending on the applications, FGPTs must achieve several goals, which are essentially related to the transducer resonance frequency, vibration modes, and excitation strength at specific resonance frequencies. Several approaches can be used to achieve these goals; however, this work focuses on finding the optimal material gradation of FGPTs by means of topology optimization. Three objective functions are proposed: (i) to obtain the FGPT optimal material gradation for maximizing specified resonance frequencies; (ii) to design piezoelectric resonators, thus, the optimal material gradation is found for achieving desirable eigenvalues and eigenmodes; and (iii) to find the optimal material distribution of FGPTs, which maximizes specified excitation strength. To track the desirable vibration mode, a mode-tracking method utilizing the `modal assurance criterion` is applied. The continuous change of piezoelectric, dielectric, and elastic properties is achieved by using the graded finite element concept. The optimization algorithm is constructed based on sequential linear programming, and the concept of continuum approximation of material distribution. To illustrate the method, 2D FGPTs are designed for each objective function. In addition, the FGPT performance is compared with the non-FGPT one.

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This paper presents a family of algorithms for approximate inference in credal networks (that is, models based on directed acyclic graphs and set-valued probabilities) that contain only binary variables. Such networks can represent incomplete or vague beliefs, lack of data, and disagreements among experts; they can also encode models based on belief functions and possibilistic measures. All algorithms for approximate inference in this paper rely on exact inferences in credal networks based on polytrees with binary variables, as these inferences have polynomial complexity. We are inspired by approximate algorithms for Bayesian networks; thus the Loopy 2U algorithm resembles Loopy Belief Propagation, while the Iterated Partial Evaluation and Structured Variational 2U algorithms are, respectively, based on Localized Partial Evaluation and variational techniques. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Two different commercial crosslinked resins (Amberlite GT73 and Amberlite IRC748) were employed for anchoring silver. The -SH and -N(CH2COOH)2 groups, respectively, present on these resins were used for Ag+ chelation from an aqueous solution. The Ag+ ions were reduced with three different reductants: hydrazine, hydroxylamine, and formaldehyde (under an alkaline pH). The produced composites were characterized with thermogravimetry/differential thermogravimetry and scanning electron microscopy combined with a backscattered scanning electron detector. Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy coupled to scanning electron microscopy allowed the observation of submicrometer particles of silver, and chemical microanalysis of emitted X-rays revealed the presence of metal on the internal and external surfaces of the composite microspheres. The amount of incorporated silver was determined by titration. The antibacterial activity of the silver/resin composites was determined toward 10(3)-10(7) cells/mL dilutions of the auxotrophic AB1157 Escherichia coli strain; the networks containing anchored submicrometer silver particles were completely bactericidal within a few minutes because of the combined action of silver and functional groups of the resins. (c) 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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Coatings based on NiCrAlC intermetallic based alloy were applied on AISI 316L stainless steel substrates using a high velocity oxygen fuel torch. The influence of the spray parameters on friction and abrasive wear resistance were investigated using an instrumented rubber wheel abrasion test, able to measure the friction forces. The corrosion behaviour of the coatings were studied with electrochemical techniques and compared with the corrosion resistance of the substrate material. Specimens prepared using lower O(2)/C(3)H(8) ratios showed smaller porosity values. The abrasion wear rate of the NiCrAlC coatings was much smaller than that described in the literature for bulk as cast materials with similar composition and one order of magnitude higher than bulk cast and heat treated (aged) NiCrAlC alloy. All coatings showed higher corrosion resistance than the AISI 316L substrate in HCl (5%) aqueous solution at 40 degrees C.

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A series of new phenyl-based conjugated copolymers has been synthesized and investigated by vibrational and photoluminescence spectroscopy (PL). The materials are: poly( 1,4-phenylene-alt-3,6-pyridazine) (COP-PIR), poly(9,9-dioctylfluorene)-co-quaterphenylene (COP-PPP) and poly[(1,4-phenylene-alt-3,6-pyridazine)-co-(1,4-phenylene-alt-9,9-dioctylfluorene)] (COP-PIR-FLUOR), with 3.5% of fluorene. COP-PPP and COP-PIR-FLUOR have high fluorescence quantum yields in solution. Infrared and Raman spectra were used to check the chemical structure of the compounds. The copolymers exhibit blue emission ranging front 2.8 to 3.6 eV when excited at E(exc)=4.13 eV. Stokes-shift Values were estimated on pristine samples in their condensed state from steady-state PL-emission and PL-excitation spectra. They suggest a difference in the torsional angle between the molecular configuration of the polymer blocks at the absorption and PL transitions and also in the photoexcitation diffusion. Additionally, the time-resolved PL of these materials has been investigated by using 100 fs laser pulses at E(exc)=4.64 eV and a streak camera. Results show very fast biexponential kinetics for the two fluorene-based polymers with decay times below 300 ps indicating both intramolecular, fast radiative recombination and migration of photogenerated electron-hole pairs. By contrast, the PL of COP-PIR is less intense and longer lived, indicating that excitons are confined to the chains in this polymer. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Conventional procedures used to assess the integrity of corroded piping systems with axial defects generally employ simplified failure criteria based upon a plastic collapse failure mechanism incorporating the tensile properties of the pipe material. These methods establish acceptance criteria for defects based on limited experimental data for low strength structural steels which do not necessarily address specific requirements for the high grade steels currently used. For these cases, failure assessments may be overly conservative or provide significant scatter in their predictions, which lead to unnecessary repair or replacement of in-service pipelines. Motivated by these observations, this study examines the applicability of a stress-based criterion based upon plastic instability analysis to predict the failure pressure of corroded pipelines with axial defects. A central focus is to gain additional insight into effects of defect geometry and material properties on the attainment of a local limit load to support the development of stress-based burst strength criteria. The work provides an extensive body of results which lend further support to adopt failure criteria for corroded pipelines based upon ligament instability analyses. A verification study conducted on burst testing of large-diameter pipe specimens with different defect length shows the effectiveness of a stress-based criterion using local ligament instability in burst pressure predictions, even though the adopted burst criterion exhibits a potential dependence on defect geometry and possibly on material`s strain hardening capacity. Overall, the results presented here suggests that use of stress-based criteria based upon plastic instability analysis of the defect ligament is a valid engineering tool for integrity assessments of pipelines with axial corroded defects. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The practicability of estimating directional wave spectra based on a vessel`s 1st order response has been recently addressed by several researchers. Different alternatives regarding statistical inference methods and possible drawbacks that could arise from their application have been extensively discussed, with an apparent preference for estimations based on Bayesian inference algorithms. Most of the results on this matter, however, rely exclusively on numerical simulations or at best on few and sparse full-scale measurements, comprising a questionable basis for validation purposes. This paper discusses several issues that have recently been debated regarding the advantages of Bayesian inference and different alternatives for its implementation. Among those are the definition of the best set of input motions, the number of parameters required for guaranteeing smoothness of the spectrum in frequency and direction and how to determine their optimum values. These subjects are addressed in the light of an extensive experimental campaign performed with a small-scale model of an FPSO platform (VLCC hull), which was conducted in an ocean basin in Brazil. Tests involved long and short crested seas with variable levels of directional spreading and also bimodal conditions. The calibration spectra measured in the tank by means of an array of wave probes configured the paradigm for estimations. Results showed that a wide range of sea conditions could be estimated with good precision, even those with somewhat low peak periods. Some possible drawbacks that have been pointed out in previous works concerning the viability of employing large vessels for such a task are then refuted. Also, it is shown that a second parameter for smoothing the spectrum in frequency may indeed increase the accuracy in some situations, although the criterion usually proposed for estimating the optimum values (ABIC) demands large computational effort and does not seem adequate for practical on-board systems, which require expeditious estimations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This work investigates the influence of the addition of cerium (IV) ions on the anticorrosion properties of organic-inorganic hybrid coatings applied to passivated tin coated steel. In order to evaluate the specific effect of cerium (IV) addition on nanostructural features of the organic and inorganic phases of the hybrid coating, the hydrolytic polycondensation of silicon alkoxide and the radical polymerization of the methyl methacrylate (MMA) function were induced separately. The corrosion resistance of the coatings was evaluated by means of linear polarization, Tafel type curves and electrochemical impedance measurements. The impedance results obtained for the hybrid coatings were discussed based on an electrical equivalent circuit used to fit the experimental data. The electrochemical results clearly showed the improvement of the protective properties of the organic-inorganic hybrid coating mainly when the cerium (IV) was added to the organic phase solution precursor, which seemed to be due to the formation of a more uniform and densely reticulated siloxane-PMMA film. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.