Previsão de inflação utilizando modelos de séries temporais

Este trabalho compara modelos de séries temporais para a projeção de curto prazo da inflação brasileira, medida pelo Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA). Foram considerados modelos SARIMA de Box e Jenkins e modelos estruturais em espaço de estados, estimados pelo filtro de Kalman. Para a estimação dos modelos, foi utilizada a série do IPCA na base mensal, de março de 2003 a março de 2012. Os modelos SARIMA foram estimados no EVIEWS e os modelos estruturais no STAMP. Para a validação dos modelos para fora da amostra, foram consideradas as previsões 1 passo à frente para o período de abril de 2012 a março de 2013, tomando como base os principais critérios de avaliação de capacidade preditiva propostos na literatura. A conclusão do trabalho é que, embora o modelo estrutural permita, decompor a série em componentes com interpretação direta e estudá-las separadamente, além de incorporar variáveis explicativas de forma simples, o desempenho do modelo SARIMA para prever a inflação brasileira foi superior, no período e horizonte considerados. Outro importante aspecto positivo é que a implementação de um modelo SARIMA é imediata, e previsões a partir dele são obtidas de forma simples e direta.

Desigualdades na rede de creches conveniadas da prefeitura de São Paulo: um olhar a partir da teoria de implementação de políticas públicas

Esta tese buscou identificar e analisar os fatores que influenciam a implementação da política de Educação Infantil nas creches conveniadas da prefeitura de São Paulo. Ao constatar a existência de um cenário de desigualdade no atendimento oferecido pelas creches, a pesquisa investigou coincidências e singularidades entre dois grupos de creches, respectivamente consideradas de boa e de má qualidade. O objetivo principal foi verificar as causas que contribuem para a diferença na qualidade do atendimento e as implicações desses fatores para a implementação da política de Educação Infantil. Foram analisadas 25 creches pertencentes às Diretorias Regionais de Educação de Butantã, Campo Limpo e Guaianases. Verificou-se que os recursos da entidade mantenedora e a forma como esta apoia a creche têm grande peso no atendimento oferecido, além do papel exercido pela direção do equipamento e a sua localização. Adicionalmente, foi investigada a influência da atuação da Prefeitura, por meio da Secretaria Municipal de Educação e, mais especificamente, das suas Diretorias Regionais. Constatou-se que, ao não lidar institucionalmente com as desigualdades existentes na rede conveniada, o poder público municipal contribui para sua manutenção. As condições que interferem no atendimento são materializadas por meio do espaço físico e dos materiais pedagógicos disponíveis, das características da equipe de profissionais (número de funcionários, acesso à formação continuada e nível de remuneração) e da diversidade de atividades oferecidas às crianças. A partir dos resultados encontrados propõem-se o aprofundamento do debate sobre as desigualdades presentes na rede de creches conveniadas que leve em conta a diferenciação existente entre rede direta e conveniada, a formação disponibilizada pela Prefeitura às equipes das creches conveniadas e outros recursos necessários para apoiar as creches que não dispõem de condições adequadas para oferecer um bom atendimento.

A Regulação pela informação no mercado de valores mobiliários

O mercado de capitais no âmbito do sistema financeiro apresenta-se como um instrumento capaz de definir e aumentar a eficiência da alocação de bens e recursos entre poupadores e investidores em uma sociedade. Não obstante, o mercado é passível de falhas, necessitando, portanto, da intervenção estatal para corrigir eventuais falhas. Dentre as falhas mais comuns apresentadas no mercado de capitais, destaca-se a assimetria de informações, que basicamente consiste na falta de plena informação para todos os agentes participantes do mercado acionário. Neste cenário, o Estado elegeu o regime de divulgação de informações para nortear e fiscalizar o mercado de valores mobiliários, objetivando corrigir as assimetrias de informações decorrentes, sendo o modelo adotado por inúmeros países atualmente. Deste modo é importante compreender os motivos pelos quais levaram o Estado a primeiramente intervir nos mercados por meio da regulação e os motivos pelos quais levaram a adoção do regime de divulgação obrigatória de informações como pedra angular do mercado de valores mobiliários, analisando os aspectos positivos e negativos que justificam tal regime.

Conselho Municipal de Saúde de Pedras de Fogo - PB: um estudo sobre participação

The present study aims to understand the process of Participation of the Health Council- CMS in the formularization, implementation and control of the Municipal health plan of Pedras de Fogo, through four criteria of quality of participation considered by Demo (1993): representation, legitimacy, base participation, and self-responsibility. The criteria of representation is related to the quality of politics of the representative over the representings. Legitimacy is related to the politics` quality of the process of participation based on norms and rules that stipulate the participation, the base participation is a necessary political support so that the power authorization directed to the representings can be effective and the self-responsibility refers to the capacity of being responsible when it concerns to the public service or property. Through the descriptive and exploratory study a qualitative method was adopted to consider the conditions of the participation of the twelve council members of the City council of Health of Pedras de Fogo, through a formulated Instrument based on the criteria of DEMO (1993). It was concluded that the quality of the participation of the council members of the CMS of Pedras de Fogo understands essential aspects of the criteria of quality considered by Demo (1993) but it shows fragilities as unfamiliarity with the norms that legitimize the performance of the council; unfamiliarity of its condition of being an agent and the importance of the participation of the base for the reinforcement of its participation, as well as inertia related to the check and rendering of accounts on its performance. This way it makes sense that the participation of the council in the four criteria of quality of politics considered in this paper needs to improve

A gestão da informação sob a luz do Enterprise Content Management (ECM): um estudo de caso em uma universidade pública

This work involves the organization and content perspectives on Enterprise Content Management (ECM) framework. The case study at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte was based on ECM model to analyse the information management provided by the three main administrative systems: The Integrated Management of Academic Activities (SIGAA), Integrated System of Inheritance, and Contracts Administration (SIPAC) and the Integrated System for Administration and Human Resources (SIGRH). A case study protocol was designed to provide greater reliability to research process. Four propositions were examined in order to reach the specific objectives of identification and evaluation of ECM components from UFRN perspective. The preliminary phase provided the guidelines for the data collection. In total, 75 individuals were interviewed. Interviews with four managers directly involved on systems design were recorded (average duration of 90 minutes). The 70 remaining individuals were approached in random way in UFRN s units, including teachers, administrative-technical employees and students. The results showed the presence of many ECM elements in the management of UFRN administrative information. The technological component with higher presence was "management of web content / collaboration". But initiatives of other components (e.g. email and document management) were found and are in continuous improvement. The assessment made use of eQual 4.0 to examine the effectiveness of applications under three factors: usability, quality of information and offered service. In general, the quality offered by the systems was very good and walk side by side with the obtained benefits of ECM strategy adoption in the context of the whole institution

Identificação de genes MUTM em BACs da cana-de-açucar e caracterização preliminar destes genes e seus promotores

Sugarcane has an importance in Brazil due to sugar and biofuel production. Considering this aspect, there is basic research being done in order to understand its physiology to improve production. The aim of this research is the Base Excision Repair pathway, in special the enzyme MUTM DNA-glycosylase (formamidopyrimidine) which recognizes oxidized guanine in DNA. The sugarcane scMUTM genes were analyzed using four BACs (Bacterial Artificial Chromosome) from a sugarcane genomic library from R570 cultivar. The resulted showed the presence in the region that had homology to scMUTM the presence of transposable elements. Comparing the similarity, it was observed a highest similarity to Sorghum bicolor sequence, both nucleotide and peptide sequences. Furthermore, promoter regions from MUTM genes in some grass showed different cis-regulatory elements, among which, most were related to oxidative stress, suggesting a gene regulation by oxidative stress

Growth, lipogenesis and body composition of piracanjuba (Brycon orbignyanus) fingerlings fed different dietary protein and lipid concentrations

Piracanjuba (Brycon orbignyanus) is a Brazilian migratory fast-growing omnivore, very appreciated as a sport fish, which is threatened to extinction in Southern Brazil due to stock over exploitation and dam building. Therefore, efforts have been made to raise this fish in captivity for reintroduction and aquaculture purposes. In the present study, the effects of different dietary protein and lipid concentrations on piracanjuba fingerlings growth performance, feed utilization, body composition, hepatosomatic index (HSI) and activity of the lipogenic enzymes fatty acid synthetase (FAS), glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) and malic enzyme (ME) were investigated using a 2 x 3 factorial experiment. Six casein-gelatin based diets were prepared combining two protein (30% and 32%) and three lipid concentrations (5.5%, 8.8% and 12.1%). Eleven fish, average weight 11.30 +/- 0.1 g, were held in each of 18 100-1 aquaria, supplied with recirculating freshwater. Each diet was randomly assigned to triplicate groups of fish and fed to apparent satiation, twice a day for 100 d. Piracanjuba fingerlings' daily weight gain (0.36-0.40 g), specific growth rate (1.43-1.51%), feed utilization and HSI were not influenced by dietary protein or lipid concentration. However, body composition was directly affected by dietary treatment. An increase in body fat and dry matter was observed as dietary lipid increased, for both dietary protein concentrations tested. The activity of FAS was depressed by increasing dietary fat levels but the G6PD activity did not differ among dietary treatments, although ME activity showed some regulation by dietary protein. These results indicate that an increase from 5.5% to 12.1% in the dietary lipid, at a dietary protein concentration of 30% or 32%, promotes body fat accumulation in piracanjuba fingerlings with no improvement in growth, suggesting that the lipid requirement for this species should be 5% or less, when raised for commercial purposes. However, the additional energy reserve from body fat accumulation could be desirable for piracanjuba fingerlings produced for stock enhancement. (C) 2003 Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS and Ifremer/IRD/Inra/Cemagref. All rights reserved.

Federealismo e desenvolvimento: cooperação entre os entes federados limites, direitos e deveres

Taking as a starting point the Classic Federalism and theory of the development this Work intend to present some ideas linked about cooperation between federal entities and intergovernmental relations with the main focus the regulation by the Public Consortia aimed at administrative efficiency as a Constitutional Principle of Activity Administrative, against the current provisions of the Federal Constituition of 1988, and infraconstitutional legislation in order to provoke debate and criticism about the principle of cooperation adopted as a paradigm and the capabilities that the state has and what it is, in fact, an efficient management public. It is in the growth of the state, and not a decrease as a minimal state, which aims to discuss its role in promoting the collective interests, and it is therefore essential, as an institution able to intervene on citizens in the search for socially relevant results. Study Federalism and Development on the premise of public consortia and administrative efficiency requires study the course of history as the formation of the Brazilian State, in particular the fact that he is in joint effort between federal agencies - federal, state and municipal - in order to better review the relations established in this plan, in what concerns directly on the issue of division of powers, especially the common or competitors and the subject of the highest relevance for the implementation of an effective federal pact. Finally, the objective of this Work is not only particularize the institute of public consortia, it is intended to demonstrate the deviousness of the concept of efficiency and the division of powers of federal agencies and the constitutional contribution of the institute as a program that should be put in a tone of debate, adequacy of the practice and the law itself

A Formação de Padres no Nordeste do Brasil (1894-1933)

The Nossa Senhora da Conceição Seminary, installed in 1894, by Dom Adauto Aurélio de Miranda Henriques, first Paraíba Bishop, and the Episcopal Seminary of the Sagrado Coração de Jesus, implanted in 1913, by Dom José Thomas Gomes da Silva, first Aracaju s Bishop diocese, were created as a result of lack of an official religious process proposed by the Brazilian Republic Proclamation, in 1889. With the appoint to enlarge the number of priests and change the image of the priest married and unrolled who used to identify the Catholic Church in the colonial and imperial Brazil. Such bishops developed into intellectuals in the government, dioceses and formation priest houses. I take as a study object, for this doctorate paper, the academic formation and priesthood developed in theses seminaries, from 1894 to 1933, once 1894 the year of João Pessoa Creation Seminar that was implied the Minor Course (preparation) and the Major one (built by Philosophy and God related studies) and the research limit year of 1933, is concerned about the Major Sergipe Seminary ending, which was created and has worked offering the Minor and Major courses, from 1913 to 1933. Showing the teaching models that guided and leaded the priest formation, referred as Seminaries, and the application result is the objective of this investigation. To comprehend the teaching models seminaries studied, my research line is the Catholic Church theme and priest formation in Brazil. In front of the object and the objective desired, I chose the historical comparative method and the scholars modals notions of Araujo de Barros (2004) and the Sirinelli intellectuals (1996). Such references allowed me to analyze the formation given in the seminary and seminarian participation and actions, included the sequence after the scholars formation. The thesis defended is that the teaching model developed in the Brazilian Seminaries, created after a non official religious process in the Brazilian government, deal with a model of one unique center (Seminary formation and aim pre arranged by Santa Sé), although adapted, presuming the local reality and formation structure (privileged not only spiritual and moral speaking, but intellectual also), was it responsible for intellectuals generations (teachers priests, educationalist priest, journalists priests and so on) that boost the education in Brazil. During the Republic first three decades, when, in thesis, the Government was becoming free religion, i.e., the government did not subsidize the Church anymore, and the Government, among others aspects, did not received any Church care to help the public teaching in the country. The investigation reveled accede, by bishops and their followers, such as by the Concílio de Trento pre concept, or by the others ideas, leading by the priests formation in Seminaries. By creating and stalling diocese Seminary, Bishop Dom Adauto and Dom José went further their functions, by the time they built inside themselves a teaching model thought from the main pedagogic logic, based on several religious exercises, moral and ethic, considered by themselves several knowledge connected to humanity, philosophy and God related studies). Following clearly rationalism principle (the way of teaching, which each subject has its own teacher and this class get together students with the same knowledge, regardless of age) and efficiency (trying to teach the whole content in each class), the Seminaries researched developed a whole education, allowed the structure of a spiritual education, moral and intellectual, for a quality developed by priests, including different levels that they used to performance. Their bottom line, actions and priest matter achievement allowed their broad fulfillment, in the way that priests matter were associated with cultural, educational, welfare assistance, at last, intellectuals

Qualidade física de um latossolo vermelho férrico sob sistemas de uso e manejo

The soil physical quality is defined as the soil capacity to maintain the sustainable productivity during the years. To assess soil physical quality, attributes were evaluated in the layers of 0.0-0.10, 0.10-0.20, 0.20-0.30, 0.30-0.40 m in acrustox. The experimental design was entirely randomized, with four systems of use ( corn, sugar-cane, pasture and native vegetation), four soil depths and four replications. The parameter evaluated were: texture, degree of clay flocculation, soil bulk density, porosity, water retention and "S" parameter. The usage and management systems caused soil physical degradation, being greater in pasture system with intensive usage, with smaller soil physical quality for plants development. The soil physical quality, evaluated by physical attributes, followed the following order: native vegetation > maize > sugar-cane > pasture. The Oxisol, although shows present excellent physical structure and needs an adequate management to prevent excessive compaction.

Suplementação da dieta de codornas com minerais nas formas orgânicas sobre o desempenho e a qualidade dos ovos

Foram realizados três experimentos com o objetivo de avaliar o efeito da suplementação de minerais na forma orgânica na dieta de codornas japonesas na fase de postura sobre o desempenho e a qualidade de ovos das aves. Os níveis de minerais utilizados por kg de ração, para cada experimento, foram: controle, 0,35, 0,70 e 1,05mg de Se orgânico (experimento 1); controle, 50, 100 e 150mg de Zn orgânico (experimento 2) e controle, 60, 120 e 180mg de Mn orgânico (experimento 3). As aves foram distribuídas em delineamento inteiramente ao acaso, sendo oito aves por parcela e seis repetições por tratamento. Foram avaliadas as características de desempenho - consumo diário de ração, peso dos ovos, porcentagem de postura, conversão alimentar por massa de ovos e por dúzia de ovos e viabilidade - e qualidade dos ovos - unidade Haugh, índice gema, porcentagens de casca, albúmen e gema, espessura de casca e gravidade específica. O Zn orgânico suplementado à dieta melhorou o desempenho das aves e a qualidade dos ovos, o Mn orgânico melhorou a qualidade da casca e reduziu o peso dos ovos e o Se não apresentou efeitos sobre as características avaliadas.

Estratégia de marketing ambiental no varejo de alimentos: um estudo sobre as variáveis utilizadas pelo consumidor na decisão de compra de produtos orgânicos

Demand for organic foods within in Brazil are growing, characterizing itself for if constituting in a new strategical segment of commercialization. In this context, the objective of this research was to investigate the variables used by consumers in the purchase decision of organic products, aiming to characterize the level of competitiveness of these products, assisting in the creation of environmental strategies for the development of the activity and contributing in the increment of the knowledge about the subject, that can assist it in the increase of the commercialization and the consumption of these foods. From data collected in the city of Natal/RN, it was used a survey research, of exploratory and descriptive character. The sample was obtained using 401 questionnaires, in which was realized: the Test of Comparison of Averages, Descriptive analysis, analysis of Cluster and Qui-square. The results found in this study indicate that the main reasons for the organic food purchase are the absence of chemical pesticides in the product, followed by the care with own health and of the household. The main characteristics in the consumers of supermarkets, that are associates with purchase frequency of organic foods are the environmental behavior and lifestyle. Among the profile characteristics, gender, age and number of children are associates with the purchase frequency of these foods and the income and level education not showed association

Least limiting water range in soil under crop rotations and chiseling

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Avaliação da qualidade fisiológica de sementes de açaí

Quarenta lotes de sementes de açaizeiro (Euterpe oleracea Mart.) colhidos na coleção de germoplasma de palmeiras do Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (Ubatuba, Estado de São Paulo) foram submetidos aos seguintes testes para a avaliação de qualidade fisiológica das sementes: grau de umidade, germinação, primeira contagem de germinação (emissão do botão germinativo aos quatro dias da semeadura), índice de velocidade de germinação (IVG) e condutividade elétrica. O grau de umidade das sementes apresentou valores de 32,2 a 45,5%. A avaliação da qualidade das sementes de açaizeiro pode fundamentar-se nos testes de germinação, de primeira contagem de germinação, de IVG e de condutividade elétrica quando interpretados em conjunto.

Produtividade e qualidade fisiológica de sementes de feijão em função de sistemas de manejo de solo e adubação nitrogenada

O fator climático exerce grande influência na produção de sementes de feijão, porém outros fatores como a ação do ambiente solo, conseqüência de seu manejo, associado à nutrição adequada da planta, principalmente de nitrogênio, podem levar a resultados expressivos tanto no ganho de produtividade como na obtenção de produto de qualidade superior. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a influência de dois sistemas de manejo de solo (preparo convencional e plantio direto) e da adubação nitrogenada de cobertura (0, 40, 80, 120 e 160kg.ha-1 de N) sobre a produtividade e qualidade fisiológica de sementes de feijão, num delineamento experimental em blocos ao acaso em esquema de parcelas subdivididas, com quatro repetições. Verificou-se que a produtividade de sementes é influenciada positivamente pela adubação nitrogenada de cobertura, tanto no sistema de preparo convencional de solo quanto no plantio direto. Nas doses de nitrogênio em cobertura utilizadas, o sistema de preparo convencional de solo apresenta maior produtividade de sementes. Aumento nas doses de nitrogênio em cobertura possibilitam acréscimos na germinação e no vigor das sementes de feijão. O sistema de preparo convencional de solo promove sementes de maior qualidade fisiológica, expressos pelo testes de germinação e envelhecimento acelerado.