Travel time prediction on signalised urban arterials by applying SARIMA modelling on Bluetooth data

Travel time prediction has long been the topic of transportation research. But most relevant prediction models in the literature are limited to motorways. Travel time prediction on arterial networks is challenging due to involving traffic signals and significant variability of individual vehicle travel time. The limited availability of traffic data from arterial networks makes travel time prediction even more challenging. Recently, there has been significant interest of exploiting Bluetooth data for travel time estimation. This research analysed the real travel time data collected by the Brisbane City Council using the Bluetooth technology on arterials. Databases, including experienced average daily travel time are created and classified for approximately 8 months. Thereafter, based on data characteristics, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modelling is applied on the database for short-term travel time prediction. The SARMIA model not only takes the previous continuous lags into account, but also uses the values from the same time of previous days for travel time prediction. This is carried out by defining a seasonality coefficient which improves the accuracy of travel time prediction in linear models. The accuracy, robustness and transferability of the model are evaluated through comparing the real and predicted values on three sites within Brisbane network. The results contain the detailed validation for different prediction horizons (5 min to 90 minutes). The model performance is evaluated mainly on congested periods and compared to the naive technique of considering the historical average.

Auto-inhibition of hydrogen gas evolution on gold in aqueous acid solution

It was demonstrated recently that dramatic changes in the redox behaviour of gold/aqueous solution interfaces may be observed following either cathodic or thermal electrode pretreatment. Further work on the cathodic pretreatment of gold in acid solution revealed that as the activity of the gold surface was increased, its performance as a substrate for hydrogen gas evolution under constant potential conditions deteriorated. The change in activity of the gold atoms at the interface, which was attributed to a hydrogen embrittlement process (the occurrence of the latter was subsequently checked by surface microscopy), was confirmed, as in earlier work, by the appearance of a substantial anodic peak at ca. 0.5 V (RHE) in a post-activation positive sweep. Changes in the catalytic activity of a metal surface reflect the fact that the structure (or topography), thermodynamic activity and electronic properties of a surface are dependent not only on pretreatment but also, in the case of the hydrogen evolution reaction, vary with time during the course of reaction. As will be reported shortly, similar (and often more dramatic) time-dependent behaviour was observed for hydrogen gas evolution on other metal electrodes.

Locally weighted learning model predictive control for nonlinear and time varying dynamics

This paper proposes an online learning control system that uses the strategy of Model Predictive Control (MPC) in a model based locally weighted learning framework. The new approach, named Locally Weighted Learning Model Predictive Control (LWL-MPC), is proposed as a solution to learn to control robotic systems with nonlinear and time varying dynamics. This paper demonstrates the capability of LWL-MPC to perform online learning while controlling the joint trajectories of a low cost, three degree of freedom elastic joint robot. The learning performance is investigated in both an initial learning phase, and when the system dynamics change due to a heavy object added to the tool point. The experiment on the real elastic joint robot is presented and LWL-MPC is shown to successfully learn to control the system with and without the object. The results highlight the capability of the learning control system to accommodate the lack of mechanical consistency and linearity in a low cost robot arm.

Ruptured relations : guerrilla theatre, time & Pranksterish disability performance practice

Guerrilla theatre tends, by its very definition, to pop up unpredictably – it interrupts what people might see as the proper or typical flow of time, place and space. The subversive tenor of such work means that questions about ‘what has happened’ tend to the decidedly less polite form of ‘WTF’ as passersby struggle to make sense of, and move on from, moments in which accustomed narratives of action and interaction no longer apply. In this paper I examine examples of guerrilla theatre by performers with disabilities in terms of these ruptures in time, and the way they prompt reflection, reconfigure relations, or recede into traditional relations again - focusing particularly on comedian Laurence Clark. Many performers with disabilities – Bill Shannon, Katherine Araniello, Aaron Williamson, Ju Gosling, and others – find guerrilla-style interventions in public places apposite to their aesthetic and political agendas. They prompt passersby to reflect on their relationship to people with disabilities. They can be recorded for later dissection and display, teaching people something about the way social performers, social spectators and society as a whole deal with disability. In this paper, as I unpack Clark's work, I note that the embarrassment that characterises these encounters can be a flag of an ethical process taking place for passersby. Caught between two moments in which time, roles and relationships suddenly fail to flow along the smooth routes of socially determined habits, passersbys’ frowns, gasps and giggles flag difficulties dealing with questions about their attitude to disabled people they do not now know how to answer. I consider the productivity, politics and performerly ethics of drawing passersby into such a process – a chaotic, challenging interstitial time in which a passersbys choices become fodder for public consumption – in such a wholly public way.

Performance degradation in feedback control due to constraints

In this note, we present a method to characterize the degradation in performance that arises in linear systems due to constraints imposed on the magnitude of the control signal to avoid saturation effects. We do this in the context of cheap control for tracking step signals.

Performance-based structural fire design and testing of structures

Fire incident in buildings is common in Hong Kong and this could lead to heavy casualties due to its high population density, so the fire safety design of the framed structure is an important research topic. This paper describes a computer tool for determination of capacity of structural safety against various fire scenarios and the well-accepted second-order direct plastic analysis is adopted for simulation of material yielding and buckling. A computer method is developed to predict structural behaviour of bare steel framed structures at elevated temperatures but the work can be applied to structures made of other materials. These effects of thermal expansion and material degradation due to heating are required to be considered in order to capture the actual behavior of the structure under fire. Degradation of material strength with increasing temperature is included by a set of temperature-stress-strain curves according to BS5950 Part 8 mainly, which implicitly allows for creep deformation. Several numerical and experimental verifications of framed structures are presented and compared against solutions by other researchers. The proposed method allows us to adopt the truly performance-based structural fire analysis and design with significant saving in cost and time.

Fire performance and design of cold-formed steel wall systems

Traditionally, the fire resistance rating of Light gauge steel frame (LSF) wall systems is based on approximate prescriptive methods developed using limited fire tests. These fire tests are conducted using standard fire time-temperature curve given in ISO 834. However, in recent times fire has become a major disaster in buildings due to the increase in fire loads as a result of modern furniture and lightweight construction, which make use of thermoplastics materials, synthetic foams and fabrics. Therefore a detailed research study into the performance of load bearing LSF wall systems under both standard and realistic design fires on one side was undertaken to develop improved fire design rules. This study included both full scale fire tests and numerical studies of eight different LSF wall systems conducted for both the standard fire curve and the recently developed realistic design fire curves. The use of previous fire design rules developed for LSF walls subjected to non-uniform elevated temperature distributions based on AISI design manual and Eurocode 3 Parts 1.2 and 1.3 was investigated first. New simplified fire design rules based on AS/NZS 4600, North American Specification and Eurocode 3 Part 1.3 were then proposed with suitable allowances for the interaction effects of compression and bending actions. The importance of considering thermal bowing, magnified thermal bowing and neutral axis shift in the fire design was also investigated and their effects were included. A spread sheet based design tool was developed based on the new design rules to predict the failure load ratio versus time and temperature curves for varying LSF wall configurations. The accuracy of the proposed design rules was verified using the fire test and finite element analysis results for various wall configurations, steel grades, thicknesses and load ratios under both standard and realistic design fire conditions. A simplified method was also proposed to predict the fire resistance rating of LSF walls based on two sets of equations developed for the load ratio-hot flange temperature and the time-temperature relationships. This paper presents the details of this study on LSF wall systems under fire conditions and the results.

Differential effects of refractive blur on day and night-time driving performance

Purpose To investigate the effect of different levels of refractive blur on real-world driving performance measured under day and nighttime conditions. Methods Participants included 12 visually normal, young adults (mean age = 25.8 ± 5.2 years) who drove an instrumented research vehicle around a 4 km closed road circuit with three different levels of binocular spherical refractive blur (+0.50 diopter sphere [DS], +1.00 DS, +2.00 DS) compared with a baseline condition. The subjects wore optimal spherocylinder correction and the additional blur lenses were mounted in modified full-field goggles; the order of testing of the blur conditions was randomized. Driving performance was assessed in two different sessions under day and nighttime conditions and included measures of road signs recognized, hazard detection and avoidance, gap detection, lane-keeping, sign recognition distance, speed, and time to complete the course. Results Refractive blur and time of day had significant effects on driving performance (P < 0.05), where increasing blur and nighttime driving reduced performance on all driving tasks except gap judgment and lane keeping. There was also a significant interaction between blur and time of day (P < 0.05), such that the effects of blur were exacerbated under nighttime driving conditions; performance differences were evident even for +0.50 DS blur relative to baseline for some measures. Conclusions The effects of blur were greatest under nighttime conditions, even for levels of binocular refractive blur as low as +0.50 DS. These results emphasize the importance of accurate and up-to-date refractive correction of even low levels of refractive error when driving at night.

Durability performance of carbon fibre-reinforced polymer strengthened circular hollow steel members under cold weather

The use of circular hollow steel members has attracted a great deal of attention during past few years because of having excellent structural properties, aesthetic appearance, corrosion and fire protection capability. However, no one can deny the structural deficiency of such structures due to reduction of strength when they are exposed to severe environmental conditions such as marine environment, cold and hot weather. Hence strengthening and retrofitting of structural steel members is now very imperative. This paper presents the findings of a research program that was conducted to study the bond durability of carbon fibre-reinforced polymer (CFRP) strengthened steel tubular members under cold weather and tested under four-point bending. Six number of CFRP-strengthened specimens and one unstrengthened specimen were considered in this program. The three specimens having sand blasted surface to be strengthened was pre-treated with MBrace primer and other three were remained untreated and then cured under ambient temperature at least four weeks and cold weather (3 C) for three and six months period of time. Quasi-static tests were then performed on beams to failure under four-point bending. The structural response of each specimen was predicted in terms of failure load, mid-span deflection, composite beam behaviour and failure mode. The research outcomes show that the cold weather immersion had an adverse effect on durability of CFRP-strengthened steel structures. Moreover, the epoxy based adhesion promoter was found to enhance the bond durability in plastic range. The analytical models presented in this study were found to be in good agreement in terms of predicting ultimate load and deflection. Finally, design factors are proposed to address the short-terms durability performance under cold weather.

Indirect effects of phytochemicals on offspring performance of Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Phytochemical lures such as methyl eugenol (ME) and cue-lure are used in the management of Bactrocera fruit flies for monitoring and control. These lures are not just attractants, but also trigger physiological changes in males that lead to enhanced mating success. Additionally, in the cue-lure-responsive Bactrocera tryoni, females mated with lure-fed males exhibit changes in fecundity, remating receptivity and longevity. While the lures show current generation effects, no research has been carried out on possible multigenerational effects, although such effects have been hypothesized within a ‘sexy-son’ sexual selection model. In this study, we test for indirect, cross-generational effects of lure exposure in F1offspring of B. tryoni females mated with cue-lure-fed, zingerone-fed and lure-unfed (=control) males. The F1 attributes we recorded were immature development time, immature survival, adult survival and adult male lure foraging. No significant differences were found between treatments for any of the three life-history measurements, except that the offspring sired by zingerone-fed males had a longer egg development time than cue-lure and control offspring. However, indirect exposure to lures significantly enhanced the lure-foraging ability of F1 adult males. More offspring of cue-lure-fed males arrived at a lure source in both large flight cages and small laboratory cages over a 2-h period than did control males. The offspring of zingerone-fed males were generally intermediate between cue-lure and control offspring. This study provides the first evidence of a next generation effect of fruit fly male lures. While the results of this study support a ‘sexy-son’ sexual selection mechanism for the evolution of lure response in Bactrocera fruit flies, our discussion urges caution in interpreting our results in this way.

Evaluation of knowledge management performance: An organic approach

Knowledge management (KM) strategy is the planned or actual coordination of a firm's major goals and learning in time; this coordination continually co-aligns the firm's knowledge-based resources with the environment. Based on the organic perspective of strategy, a KM performance evaluation approach should be able to 1) review the knowledge governance mechanisms and learning routines that underpin the KM strategy, as well as the performance outcomes driven by the strategy, and 2) predict the evolution of performance drivers and outcomes into the future to facilitate strategic planning. This study combined a survey study and a system dynamics (SD) simulation to demonstrate the transformation from a mechanistic to an organic perspective on KM strategy and performance evaluation. The survey study was conducted based on a sample of 143 construction contractors and used structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques to develop a KM performance index for reviewing the key elements that underpin KM strategy. The SD simulation predicted the development of KM strategy configurations and the evolution of KM performance over time. The organic KM performance evaluation approach demonstrated by this study has significant potential to improve the alignment of KM strategy within an increasingly dynamic business environment.

Preparation of macroporous methacrylate monolithic material with convective flow properties for bioseparation : Investigating the kinetics of pore formation and hydrodynamic performance

The preparation of macroporous methacrylate monolithic material with controlled pore structures can be carried out in an unstirred mould through careful and precise control of the polymerisation kinetics and parameters. Contemporary synthesis conditions of methacrylate monolithic polymers are based on existing polymerisation schemes without an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of pore structure and formation. This leads to poor performance in polymer usage thereby affecting final product recovery and purity, retention time, productivity and process economics. The unique porosity of methacrylate monolithic polymer which propels its usage in many industrial applications can be controlled easily during its preparation. Control of the kinetics of the overall process through changes in reaction time, temperature and overall composition such as cross-linker and initiator contents allow the fine tuning of the macroporous structure and provide an understanding of the mechanism of pore formation within the unstirred mould. The significant effect of temperature of the reaction kinetics serves as an effectual means to control and optimise the pore structure and allows the preparation of polymers with different pore size distributions from the same composition of the polymerisation mixture. Increasing the concentration of the cross-linking monomer affects the composition of the final monoliths and also decreases the average pore size as a result of pre-mature formation of highly cross-linked globules with a reduced propensity to coalesce. The choice and concentration of porogen solvent is also imperative. Different porogens and porogen mixtures present different pore structure output. Example, larger pores are obtained in a poor solvent due to early phase separation.

Chirp-spread-spectrum-based real time location system for construction safety management: A case study

Observing the working procedure of construction workers is an effective means of maintaining the safety performance of a construction project. It is also difficult to achieve due to a high worker-to-safety-officer ratio. There is an imminent need for the development of a tool to assist in the real-time monitoring of workers, in order to reduce the number of construction accidents. The development and application of a real time locating system (RTLS) based on the Chirp Spread Spectrum (CSS) technique is described in this paper for tracking the real-time position of workers on construction sites. Experiments and tests were carried out both on- and off-site to verify the accuracy of static and dynamic targets by the system, indicating an average error of within one metre. Experiments were also carried out to verify the ability of the system to identify workers’ unsafe behaviours. Wireless data transfer was used to simplify the deployment of the system. The system was deployed in a public residential construction project and proved to be quick and simple to use. The cost of the developed system is also reported to be reasonable (around 1800USD) in this study and is much cheaper than the cost of other RTLS. In addition, the CCS technique is shown to provide an economical solution with reasonable accuracy compared with other positioning systems, such as ultra wideband. The study verifies the potential of the CCS technique to provide an effective and economical aid in the improvement of safety management in the construction industry.

Experimental evaluation of the performance of 2×2 MIMO-OFDM for vehicle-to-infrastructure communications

In this paper, a novel 2×2 multiple-input multiple-output orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) testbed based on an Analog Devices AD9361 highly integrated radio frequency (RF) agile transceiver was specifically implemented for the purpose of estimating and analyzing MIMO-OFDM channel capacity in vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) environments using the 920 MHz industrial, scientific, and medical (ISM) band. We implemented two-dimensional discrete cosine transform-based filtering to reduce the channel estimation errors and show its effectiveness on our measurement results. We have also analyzed the effects of channel estimation error on the MIMO channel capacity by simulation. Three different scenarios of subcarrier spacing were investigated which correspond to IEEE 802.11p, Long-Term Evolution (LTE), and Digital Video Broadcasting Terrestrial (DVB-T)(2k) standards. An extensive MIMO-OFDM V2I channel measurement campaign was performed in a suburban environment. Analysis of the measured MIMO channel capacity results as a function of the transmitter-to-receiver (TX-RX) separation distance up to 250 m shows that the variance of the MIMO channel capacity is larger for the near-range line-of-sight (LOS) scenarios than for the long-range non-LOS cases, using a fixed receiver signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) criterion. We observed that the largest capacity values were achieved at LOS propagation despite the common assumption of a degenerated MIMO channel in LOS. We consider that this is due to the large angular spacing between MIMO subchannels which occurs when the receiver vehicle rooftop antennas pass by the fixed transmitter antennas at close range, causing MIMO subchannels to be orthogonal. In addition, analysis on the effects of different subcarrier spacings on MIMO-OFDM channel capacity showed negligible differences in mean channel capacity for the subcarrier spacing range investigated. Measured channels described in this paper are available on request.

Determining reverse salient types and evolutionary dynamics of technology systems with performance disparities

Technological system evolution is marked by the uneven evolution of constituent sub-systems. Subsequently, system evolution is hampered by the resulting state of unevenness, or reverse salience, which results from the presence of the sub-system that delivers the lowest level of performance with respect to other sub-systems, namely, the reverse salient. In this paper, we develop absolute and proportional performance gap measures of reverse salience and, in turn, derive a typology of reverse salients that distinguishes alternative dynamics of change in the evolving system. We subsequently demonstrate the applicability of the measures and the typology through an illustrative empirical study of the PC (personal computer) technological system that functions as a gaming platform. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that patterns of temporal dynamics can be distinguished with the measurement of reverse salience, and that distinct paths of technological system evolution can be identified as different types of reverse salients emerge over time.