A modell of socially optimal hydro reservoir usage - yelding socially optimal outcomes in nordic electricity markets

An extensive electricity transmission network facilitates electricity trading between Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Currently most of the area's power generation is traded at NordPool, where the trading volumes have steadily increased since the early 1990's, when the exchange was founded. The Nordic electricity is expected to follow the current trend and further integrate with the other European electricity markets. Hydro power is the source for roughly a half of the supply in the Nordic electricity market and most of the hydro is generated in Norway. The dominating role of hydro power distinguishes the Nordic electricity market from most of the other market places. Production of hydro power varies mainly due to hydro reservoirs and demand for electricity. Hydro reservoirs are affected by water inflows that differ each year. The hydro reservoirs explain remarkably the behaviour of the Nordic electricity markets. Therefore among others, Kauppi and Liski (2008) have developed a model that analyzes the behaviour of the markets using hydro reservoirs as explanatory factors. Their model includes, for example, welfare loss due to socially suboptimal hydro reservoir usage, socially optimal electricity price, hydro reservoir storage and thermal reservoir storage; that are referred as outcomes. However, the model does not explain the real market condition but rather an ideal situation. In the model the market is controlled by one agent, i.e. one agent controls all the power generation reserves; it is referred to as a socially optimal strategy. Article by Kauppi and Liski (2008) includes an assumption where an individual agent has a certain fraction of market power, e.g. 20 % or 30 %. In order to maintain the focus of this thesis, this part of their paper is omitted. The goal of this thesis is two-fold. Firstly we expand the results from the socially optimal strategy for years 2006-08, as the earlier study finishes in 2005. The second objective is to improve on the methods from the previous study. This thesis results several outcomes (SPOT-price and welfare loss, etc.) due to socially optimal actions. Welfare loss is interesting as it describes the inefficiency of the market. SPOT-price is an important output for the market participants as it often has an effect on end users' electricity bills. Another function is to modify and try to improve the model by means of using more accurate input data, e.g. by considering pollution trade rights effect on input data. After modifications to the model, new welfare losses are calculated and compared with the same results before the modifications. The hydro reservoir has the higher explanatory significance in the model followed by thermal power. In Nordic markets, thermal power reserves are mostly nuclear power and other thermal sources (coal, natural gas, oil, peat). It can be argued that hydro and thermal reservoirs determine electricity supply. Roughly speaking, the model takes into account electricity demand and supply, and several parameters related to them (water inflow, oil price, etc.), yielding finally the socially optimal outcomes. The author of this thesis is not aware of any similar model being tested before. There have been some other studies that are close to the Kauppi and Liski (2008) model, but those have a somewhat different focus. For example, a specific feature in the model is the focus on long-run capacity usage that differs from the previous studies on short-run market power. The closest study to the model is from California's wholesale electricity markets that, however, uses different methodology. Work is constructed as follows.

Synthesis of Cost-Optimal Shell-and-Tube Heat Exchangers

Synthesis of cost-optimal shell-and-tube heat exchangers is a difficult task since it involves a large number of parameters. An attempt is made in this article to simplify the process of choosing the parameter values that will minimize the cost of any heat exchanger satisfying a given heat duty and a particular set of constraints. The simplification is based on decoupling of the geometric and the thermal aspects of the problem. The concept of curves for cost-optimal design is introduced and is shown to simplify the synthesis process for shell-and-tube heat exchangers.

An optimal local approximation algorithm for max-min linear programs

In a max-min LP, the objective is to maximise ω subject to Ax ≤ 1, Cx ≥ ω1, and x ≥ 0 for nonnegative matrices A and C. We present a local algorithm (constant-time distributed algorithm) for approximating max-min LPs. The approximation ratio of our algorithm is the best possible for any local algorithm; there is a matching unconditional lower bound.

Inelastic response of beams under sinusoidal and random loads

A new analytical model has been suggested for the hysteretic behaviour of beams. The model can be directly used in a response analysis without bothering to locate the precise point where the unloading commences. The model can efficiently simulate several types of realistic softening hysteretic loops. This is demonstrated by computing the response of cantilever beams under sinusoidal and random loadings. Results are presented in the form of graphs for maximum deflection, bending moment and shear

Advances in the analysis and design of concrete structures, metal containments and liner plate for extreme loads

The material presented in this paper summarizes the progress that has been made in the analysis, design, and testing of concrete structures. The material is summarized in the following documents: 1. Part I - Containment Design Criteria and Loading Combinations - J.D. Stevenson (Stevenson and Associates, Cleveland, Ohio, USA) 2. Part II - Reinforced and Prestressed Concrete Behavior - J. Eibl and M. Curbach (Karlsruhe University, Karlsruhe, Germany) 3. Part III - Concrete Containment Analysis, Design and Related Testing - T.E. Johnson and M.A. Daye (Bechtel Power Corporation, Gaithersburg, Maryland USA) 4. Part IV - Impact and Impulse Loading and Response Prediction - J.D. Riera (School of Engineering - UFRGS, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil) 5. Part V - Metal Containments and Liner Plate Systems - N.J. Krutzik (Siemens AG, Offenbach Am Main, Germany) 6. Part VI - Prestressed Reactor Vessel Design, Testing and Analysis - J. Nemet (Austrian Research Center, Seibersdorf, Austria) and K.T.S. Iyengar (Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India).

Optimal Use of Treatment Modalities and Treatment Results of Osteosarcoma and Soft Tissue Sarcomas

Soft tissue sarcomas are malignant tumours of mesenchymal origin. Because of infiltrative growth pattern, simple enucleation of the tumour causes a high rate of local recurrence. Instead, these tumours should be resected with a rim of normal tissue around the tumour. Data on the adequate margin width are scarce. At Helsinki University Central Hospital (HUCH) a multidisciplinary treatment group started in 1987. Surgical resection with a wide margin (2.5 cm) is the primary aim. In case of narrower margin radiation therapy is necessary. The role of adjuvant chemotherapy remains unclear. Our aims were to study local control by the surgical margin and to develop a new prognostic tool to aid decision-making on which patients should receive adjuvant chemotherapy. Patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremity or the trunk wall referred to HUCH during 1987-2002 form material in Studies I and II. External validation material comes from the Lund university sarcoma registry. The smallest surgical margin of at least 2.5 centimetres yielded local control of 89 per cent at five years. Amputation rate was 9 per cent. The proposed prognostic model with necrosis, vascular invasion, size on a continuous scale, depth, location and grade worked well both in Helsinki material and in the validation material, and it also showed good calibration. Based on the present study, we recommend the smallest surgical margin of 2-3 centimetres in soft tissue sarcoma irrespective of grade. Improvement in local control was present but modest in margins wider than 1 centimetre. In cases where gaining a wider margin would lead to a considerable loss of function, smaller margin is to be considered combined to radiation therapy. Patients treated with inadequate margins should be offered radiation therapy irrespective of tumour grade. Our new prognostic model to estimate 10-year survival probability in patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities or trunk wall showed good dicscrimination and calibration. For time being the prognostic model is available for scientific use and further validations. In the future, the model may aid in clinical decision-making. For operable osteosarcoma, neoadjuvant multidrug chemotherapy followed by delayed surgery and multidrug adjuvant chemotherapy is the treatment of choice. Overall survival rates at five years are approximately 75 per cent in modern trials with classical osteosarcoma. All patients diagnosed and reported to the Finnish Cancer Registry with osteosarcoma in Finland during 1971-2005 form the material in Studies III and IV. Limb-salvage rate increased from 23 per cent to 78 per cent during 1971-2005. The 10-year sarcoma-specific survival for the whole study population improved from 32 per cent to 62 per cent. It was 75 per cent for patients with a local high-grade osteosarcoma of the extremity diagnosed during 1991-2005. This study outlines the improved prognosis of osteosarcoma patients in Finland with modern chemotherapy. The 10-year survival rates are good also in an international scale. Nonetheless, their limb-salvage rate remains inferior to those seen for highly selected patient series. Overall, the centralisation of osteosarcoma treatment would most likely improve both survival and limb-salvage rates even further.

Optimal multispecies fishery management in the Baltic Sea: A bioeconomic analysis

The aim of the thesis is to assess the fishery of Baltic cod, herring and sprat by simulation over 50 years time period. We form a bioeconomic multispecies model for the species. We include species interactions into the model because especially cod and sprat stocks have significant effects on each other. We model the development of population dynamics, catches and profits of the fishery with current fishing mortalities, as well as with the optimal profit maximizing fishing mortalities. Thus, we see how the fishery would develop with current mortalities, and how the fishery should be developed in order to yield maximal profits. Especially cod stock has been quite low recently and by optimizing the fishing mortality it could get recovered. In addition, we assess what would happen to the fisheries of the species if more favourable environmental conditions for cod recruitment dominate in the Baltic Sea. The results may yield new information for the fisheries management. According to the results the fishery of Baltic cod, herring and sprat are not at the most profitable level. The fishing mortalities of each species should be lower in order to maximize the profits. By fishing mortality optimizing the net present value would be almost three times higher in the simulation period. The lower fishing mortality of cod would result in a cod stock recovery. If the environmental conditions in the Baltic Sea improved, cod stock would recover even without a decrease in the fishing mortality. Then the increased cod stock would restrict herring and sprat stock remarkably, and harvesting of these species would not be as profitable anymore.

Adaptive optimal load balancing in a nonhomogeneous multiserver system with a central job scheduler

A model comprising several servers, each equipped with its own queue and with possibly different service speeds, is considered. Each server receives a dedicated arrival stream of jobs; there is also a stream of generic jobs that arrive to a job scheduler and can be individually allocated to any of the servers. It is shown that if the arrival streams are all Poisson and all jobs have the same exponentially distributed service requirements, the probabilistic splitting of the generic stream that minimizes the average job response time is such that it balances the server idle times in a weighted least-squares sense, where the weighting coefficients are related to the service speeds of the servers. The corresponding result holds for nonexponentially distributed service times if the service speeds are all equal. This result is used to develop adaptive quasi-static algorithms for allocating jobs in the generic arrival stream when the load parameters are unknown. The algorithms utilize server idle-time measurements which are sent periodically to the central job scheduler. A model is developed for these measurements, and the result mentioned is used to cast the problem into one of finding a projection of the root of an affine function, when only noisy values of the function can be observed

Optimal explicit guidance of multistage launch vehicle along three-dimensional trajectory

Details of an efficient optimal closed-loop guidance algorithm for a three-dimensional launch are presented with simulation results. Two types of orbital injections, with either true anomaly or argument of perigee being free at injection, are considered. The resulting steering-angle profile under the assumption of uniform gravity lies in a canted plane which transforms a three-dimensional problem into an equivalent two-dimensional one. Effects of thrust are estimated using a series in a recursive way. Encke's method is used to predict the trajectory during powered flight and then to compute the changes due to actual gravity using two gravity-related vectors. Guidance parameters are evaluated using the linear differential correction method. Optimality of the algorithm is tested against a standard ground-based trajectory optimization package. The performance of the algorithm is tested for accuracy, robustness, and efficiency for a sun-synchronous mission involving guidance for a multistage vehicle that requires large pitch and yaw maneuver. To demonstrate applicability of the algorithm to a range of missions, injection into a geostationary transfer orbit is also considered. The performance of the present algorithm is found to be much better than others.

Occurrence of maximum Tc at an optimal carrier concentration in superconducting bismuth and thallium cuprates

The superconducting transition temperatures in Bi2Ca1−xLnxSr2Cu2O8+δ, TlCa1−xLnxSr2Cu2O6+δ, and Tl0.8Ca1−xLnxBa2Cu23O6+δ (Ln=Y or rare earth) vary with composition and show a maximum at a specific value of x or δ. This observation suggests that an optimal carrier concentration is required to attain maximum Tc in such cuprates which seem to be two‐band systems

An optimal parallel algorithm for sparse matrix bandwidth reduction on a linear array

A simple and efficient algorithm for the bandwidth reduction of sparse symmetric matrices is proposed. It involves column-row permutations and is well-suited to map onto the linear array topology of the SIMD architectures. The efficiency of the algorithm is compared with the other existing algorithms. The interconnectivity and the memory requirement of the linear array are discussed and the complexity of its layout area is derived. The parallel version of the algorithm mapped onto the linear array is then introduced and is explained with the help of an example. The optimality of the parallel algorithm is proved by deriving the time complexities of the algorithm on a single processor and the linear array.

A near-optimal initial seed value selection in K-means means algorithm using a genetic algorithm

The K-means algorithm for clustering is very much dependent on the initial seed values. We use a genetic algorithm to find a near-optimal partitioning of the given data set by selecting proper initial seed values in the K-means algorithm. Results obtained are very encouraging and in most of the cases, on data sets having well separated clusters, the proposed scheme reached a global minimum.

Concentrations and loads of some metals and fluorine in the River Kokemäenjoki in 1975 and 1977

Tiivistelmä: Metallien ja fluorin pitoisuuksista ja määristä Kokemäenjoessa vuosina 1975—1977