Comparison between the complete Bayesian method and empirical Bayesian method for ARCH models using Brazilian financial time series

In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

Studies on Transformations of H-Phosphonates into DNA Analogues Containing P-S or P-C Bonds

In this thesis, mechanistic and synthetic studies on transformations of H-phosphonates into DNA analogues containing P-S or P-C bonds are described. Configurational stability of dinucleoside H-phosphonates and the stereochemical course of their sulfurisation in the presence of 1,8-diazabicyclo[5.4.0]undec-7-ene (DBU) were investigated. In light of these studies, the reported stereoselective sulfurisation of dinucleoside H-phosphonates and benzoylphosphonates in the presence of DBU was proved to be incorrect. Efficient protocols for the synthesis of new nucleotide analogues with non-ionic C-phosphonate internucleotide linkages were developed. The synthesis of dinucleoside 2-pyridylphosphonates was successfully performed by a DBU-promoted reaction of H-phosphonate diesters with N-methoxypyridinium salts. The thio analogues, 2-pyridyl- and 4-pyridyl phosphonothioate diesters, could be obtained by modifying the reactions developed for their oxo counterparts. Dinucleoside 3-pyridylphosphonates were prepared via a palladium(0)-catalysed cross coupling strategy that could be extended also to the synthesis of nucleotide analogues with metal-complexing properties, i.e. terpyridyl- and bipyridylphosphonate derivatives. Oligonucleotides modified with pyridylphosphonate internucleotide linkages have been prepared and preliminary studies on their hybridisation properties and resistance towards enzymatic degradation were performed. Finally, nucleotidic units for the incorporation of pyridylphosphonate groups at the 5’-terminus of oligonucleotides were designed. Condensations of such units with a suitably protected nucleoside afforded after oxidation the expected dinucleoside (3’-5’)-phosphates with pyridylphosphonate monoester functions at the 5’-ends.

Leben mit Phenprocoumon — optimal versorgt? : Untersuchung der Qualität und Effektivität der Phenprocoumon-Therapie im ambulanten Sektor

In Deutschland wird zur oralen Vitamin-K-Antagonistentherapie überwiegend der Wirkstoff Phenprocoumon (PPC) eingesetzt und die meisten Patienten werden durch ihren Hausarzt betreut. In einer deskriptiven, nicht-interventionellen Studie wurde die Ist-Situation der Versorgung von PPC-Patienten im ambulanten Sektor untersucht. Ziel war es, die Qualität und Effektivität der bisherigen Standardtherapie zu evaluieren. In Anbetracht der Einführung der neuen oralen Antikoagulantien (NOAC) ist die Untersuchung der PPC-Therapie von besonderem Interesse. Dem „Throughput-Modell“ folgend sollten „Input“- und „Outcome“-Parameter analysiert werden. rnIn einer klinischen Studie wurden 50 ambulant behandelte Patienten mit PPC-Therapie jeweils über einen Zeitraum von 3 Jahren retrospektiv beobachtet. In 5 niedergelassenen Arztpraxen in Rheinland-Pfalz wurden dazu 10 Patienten pro Praxis rekrutiert. Anhand der Patientenakte wurde eine Dokumentenanalyse durchgeführt. Die Selbstmedikation wurde mit einem eigens erstellten Fragebogen erfasst. rnIm Studienkollektiv wurden im Median 3 Comorbiditäten ermittelt. Die mediane Wochendosis betrug 4,0 Tabletten à 3 mg PPC. Die Patienten wurden im Median mit weiteren 15 verschiedenen Wirkstoffen therapiert, einer davon wurde in Selbstmedikation eingenommen. Im gesamten Beobachtungszeitraum fanden pro Patient im Median 57 Arztbesuche statt, die durch die Phenprocoumon-Therapie bedingt waren. INR (International normalized ratio)-Messungen (Median 47) waren der häufigste Grund für die Arztbesuche, so dass ein 3-Wochen-Rhythmus vom Gesamtkollektiv zu 97% erreicht wurde. Die „stabile“ INR-Einstellung wurde im Median nach 94 Tagen erreicht. Die prozentuale Rate (INR (%)) für die Einhaltung des INR-Zielbereiches (ZSB) erreichte internationale Benchmark-Werte, was auf eine gute Versorgungsqualität hindeutete. Die genauere Analyse ergab jedoch große interindividuelle Schwankungen. Während der „stabilen“ INR-Einstellung wurden bessere Ergebnisse als im Gesamtbeobachtungszeitraum erzielt. Drei Patienten (6%) erreichten die „stabile“ INR-Einstellung innerhalb von 3 Jahren nie. Die Auswertung für den erweiterten ZSB (ZSB ± 0,2) ergab bessere INR (%)-Ergebnisse als für den ZSB. Die Zeit im INR-ZSB (TTR (%)) erreichte mit 75% höhere Werte als INR (%) im ZSB mit 70%. Tendenziell war das Patientenkollektiv eher unter- als übertherapiert (Median „Under-INR“ 18% bzw. „Over-INR“ 8%). Erkrankungen und Impfungen stellten die wichtigsten der zahlreichen Einflussfaktoren für INR-Shifts hin zu Werten außerhalb des ZSB dar. Patienten, die Comedikation mit hohem Interaktionspotential einnahmen, erreichten in den INR-Qualitätsindikatoren schlechtere Ergebnisse als Patienten ohne potentiell interagierende Comedikation (Mann-Whitney-U-Test; p-Wert=0,003 für TTR (%), p=0,008 für INR (%)). In Zeitintervallen der „stabilen“ INR-Einstellung war der Unterschied nur für TTR (%) auffällig (Mann-Whitney-U-Test; p=0,015). Für den erweiterten ZSB waren die Unterschiede bezüglich beider INR-Qualitätsindikatoren nicht auffällig. Insgesamt wurden 41 unerwünschte Ereignisse (UAW) beobachtet, davon 24 (59%) in der Phase der „stabilen“ INR-Einstellung (21 leichte Blutungen, 1 schwere Blutung, 2 thromboembolische Ereignisse (TE)). Je 4 leichte Blutungen (19%) wurden in einen möglichen bzw. sicheren kausalen Zusammenhang mit der VKA-Therapie gebracht, wenn ein Zeitintervall von 3 Tagen zwischen der INR-Messung und Auftreten der UAW geprüft wurde. Ein TE wurde als sicher kausal gewertet. Von insgesamt 5 Krankenhausaufenthalten waren 3 bzw. 2 durch Blutungen bzw. TE veranlasst. Des Weiteren wurde im 3-Tage-Zeitintervall für 4 INR-Shifts hin zu Werten außerhalb des ZSB eine Interaktion mit verordneter CM als in sicherem oder möglichem kausalen Zusammenhang bewertet. Bei 49% der beobachteten Grippeimpfungen wurde ein INR-Shift festgestellt, der in ca. 60% der Fälle zu einem subtherapeutischen INR-Wert führte. Insgesamt war das klinische Ergebnis nicht optimal. rnDas „Outcome“ in Form der gesundheitsbezogenen Lebensqualität (LQ) wurde retrospektiv-prospektiv mittels SF-36-Fragebogen ermittelt. Die Patienten zeigten gegenüber der Normalbevölkerung einen Verlust an LQ auf körperlicher Ebene bzw. einen Gewinn auf psychischer Ebene. Das humanistische Ergebnis erfüllte bzw. übertraf damit die Erwartungen. rnInsgesamt wiesen die Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass Qualität und Effektivität der Antikoagulationstherapie mit PPC im ambulanten Sektor weiterer Optimierung bedürfen. Mit intensivierten Betreuungsmodellen lässt sich ein besseres Outcome erzielen. rn

The multicenter trial SAKK 37/95 of cladribine, cyclophosphamide and prednisone in the treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemias and low-grade non-Hodgkin's lymphomas

A multicenter trial was performed to confirm the therapeutic efficacy and the toxicity profile of the combination of cladribine, cyclophosphamide and prednisone in low-grade non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). Twenty-three adults with previously treated (61%) or untreated (39%) NHL International Working Formulation A or Binet B and C CLL were administered cladribine 0.1 mg/kg/day as a subcutaneous bolus for 5 days, intravenous cyclophosphamide 500 mg/m2 on day 1, and oral prednisone 40 mg/m2 on days 1-5, every 4 weeks. Unexpected early hematological toxicities led to dose modifications for pretreated patients who received cladribine for 3 days only up to a maximum of five courses. Responses were observed in 75%, with 7 patients obtaining a complete clinical and hematological response. Median duration of complete response was 9 months. Median time to progression or relapse was 31 months. Myelosuppression and infections were dose limiting whereas posttreatment complications, including fatalities, resulted from infections. Median overall survival time from trial entry was 60 months. Activity of the combination of cladribine, cyclophosphamide and prednisone was confirmed. However, in the specific setting of a multicenter trial, unexpected fatal infectious episodes occurred in pretreated patients. Great caution is thus required in these susceptible patients and the routine use of corticosteroids should probably be abandoned.

ABO histo-blood group antigen expression on the graft endothelium long term after ABO-compatible, non-identical heart transplantation

We recently reported a complete change in the endothelial ABO histo-blood group phenotype of a cardiac allograft long term after B to O mismatched transplantation. In the context of the current controversy on graft recolonization with recipient endothelial cells and its importance in the development of immunological unresponsiveness, we monitored the expression of endothelial ABH histo-blood group antigens of 10 ABO-compatible, non-identical cardiac allografts over an observation period of at least 30 months. ABH antigens as well as markers for endothelial cells, erythrocytes and thrombocytes were investigated retrospectively by immunohistochemistry using monoclonal antibodies on sections of formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded biopsies and were evaluated semi-quantitatively by microscopy. In contrast to our earlier finding of the change in the endothelial ABO histo-blood group phenotype long term after ABO- mismatched transplantation, we could not confirm this change in 10 compatible but non-identical cases.

The long-term mechanical integrity of non-reinforced PEEK-OPTIMA polymer for demanding spinal applications: experimental and finite-element analysis

Polyetheretherketone (PEEK) is a novel polymer with potential advantages for its use in demanding orthopaedic applications (e.g. intervertebral cages). However, the influence of a physiological environment on the mechanical stability of PEEK has not been reported. Furthermore, the suitability of the polymer for use in highly stressed spinal implants such as intervertebral cages has not been investigated. Therefore, a combined experimental and analytical study was performed to address these open questions. A quasi-static mechanical compression test was performed to compare the initial mechanical properties of PEEK-OPTIMA polymer in a dry, room-temperature and in an aqueous, 37 degrees C environment (n=10 per group). The creep behaviour of cylindrical PEEK polymer specimens (n=6) was measured in a simulated physiological environment at an applied stress level of 10 MPa for a loading duration of 2000 hours (12 weeks). To compare the biomechanical performance of different intervertebral cage types made from PEEK and titanium under complex loading conditions, a three-dimensional finite element model of a functional spinal unit was created. The elastic modulus of PEEK polymer specimens in a physiological environment was 1.8% lower than that of specimens tested at dry, room temperature conditions (P<0.001). The results from the creep test showed an average creep strain of less than 0.1% after 2000 hours of loading. The finite element analysis demonstrated high strain and stress concentrations at the bone/implant interface, emphasizing the importance of cage geometry for load distribution. The stress and strain maxima in the implants were well below the material strength limits of PEEK. In summary, the experimental results verified the mechanical stability of the PEEK-OPTIMA polymer in a simulated physiological environment, and over extended loading periods. Finite element analysis supported the use of PEEK-OPTIMA for load-bearing intervertebral implants.

Radiation therapy for HIV-associated diffuse large cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma

PURPOSE: To report the clinical experience with external beam radiotherapy (RT) for AIDS-related lymphoma (ARL) with or without the involvement of the central nervous system (CNS) in HIV-infected patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Clinical outcome of 24 HIV-seropositive patients with ARL treated with RT from 1995 to 2004 was reviewed, testing factors associated with outcome. RESULTS: After 1 and 5 years, the overall survival was 65% and 35%, respectively. The mean RT dose was 31 Gy after normalization to fractions of daily 2 Gy (range, 7.8-47.2 Gy). Radiotherapy dose was associated with survival in univariate (P = .04) and multivariate analysis (P = .01). Other factors in univariate analysis associated with outcome were viral load (VL), highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), ARL stage, and CNS involvement. Patients with CNS involvement achieved complete response in 46% and improved clinical performance was seen in 73%. CONCLUSIONS: After chemotherapy, RT in combination with HAART is highly active, and RT should be encouraged especially after suboptimal responses to induction treatment.

Cephalometric outcome of two types of palatoplasty in complete unilateral cleft lip and palate

In complete unilateral cleft lip and palate (CLP), a vomerplasty is assumed to improve midfacial growth because of the reduction in scarring in the growth-sensitive areas of the palate. Our aim, therefore, was to evaluate maxillofacial morphology after a modified Langenbeck technique or a vomerplasty in children with complete unilateral CLP who were operated on by a single surgeon. As part of a one-stage closure of complete unilateral CLP done during the first year of life, the technique for repair of the hard palate repair differed between the two groups. In the modified group (n=37, mean age 11 years) a modified von Langenbeck technique was used that resulted in denudation of the bony surface on the non-cleft side only. In the vomerplasty group (n=37, mean age 11 years) a vomerplasty was used to cover the palatal bone. Lateral cephalograms from both groups were compared using the Eurocleft protocol. Fourteen angular variables were measured and 2 ratios calculated. Skeletal morphology in the groups was comparable. Maxillary incisor inclination (ILs/NL angle) and interincisal angle (ILs/ILi) were better after vomerplasty (p=0.001 and 0.04, respectively) but soft tissue facial convexity (gs-prn-pgs) was less good after vomerplasty (p=0.009). However, there was no difference between the groups in the other variable that reflected facial convexity (gs-sn-pgs) (p=0.22). Modification of the palatoplasty had a limited effect on skeletal morphology in preadolescent children, but it resulted in better inclination of the maxillary incisors.

Temporal trends of extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates in in- and outpatients in Switzerland, 2004 to 2011

Increasing trends for invasive infections with extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant (ESC-R) Enterobacteriaceae have been described in many countries worldwide. However, data on the rates of ESC-R isolates in non-invasive infections and in the outpatient setting are scarce. We used a laboratory-based nationwide surveillance system to compare temporal trends of ESC-R rates in Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae for in- and outpatients in Switzerland. Our data showed a significant increase in ESC-R rates from 1% to 5.8% in E. coli (p<0.001) and from 1.1% to 4.4% in K. pneumoniae (p=0.002) during an eight-year period (2004–2011). For E. coli, the increase was significantly higher in inpatients (from 1.2% to 6.6%), in patients residing in eastern Switzerland (from 1.0% to 6.2%), in patients older than 45 years (from 1.2% to 6.7%), and in male patients (from 1.2% to 8.1%). While the increase in inpatients was linear (p<0.001) for E. coli, the increase of ESC R K. pneumoniae isolates was the result of multiple outbreaks in several institutions. Notably, an increasing proportion of ESC-R E. coli was co-resistant to both trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and quinolones (42% in 2004 to 49.1% in 2011, p=0.009), further limiting the available oral therapeutic options.

Drug-related emergency department visits by elderly patients presenting with non-specific complaints

BACKGROUND Since drug-related emergency department (ED) visits are common among older adults, the objectives of our study were to identify the frequency of drug-related problems (DRPs) among patients presenting to the ED with non-specific complaints (NSC), such as generalized weakness and to evaluate responsible drug classes. METHODS Delayed type cross-sectional diagnostic study with a prospective 30 day follow-up in the ED of the University Hospital Basel, Switzerland. From May 2007 until April 2009, all non-trauma patients presenting to the ED with an Emergency Severity Index (ESI) of 2 or 3 were screened and included, if they presented with non-specific complaints. After having obtained complete 30-day follow-up, two outcome assessors reviewed all available information, judged whether the initial presentation was a DRP and compared their judgment with the initial ED diagnosis. Acute morbidity ("serious condition") was allocated to individual cases according to predefined criteria. RESULTS The study population consisted of 633 patients with NSC. Median age was 81 years (IQR 72/87), and the mean Charlson comorbidity index was 2.5 (IQR 1/4). DRPs were identified in 77 of the 633 cases (12.2%). At the initial assessment, only 40% of the DRPs were correctly identified. 64 of the 77 identified DRPs (83%) fulfilled the criteria "serious condition". Polypharmacy and certain drug classes (thiazides, antidepressants, benzodiazepines, anticonvulsants) were associated with DRPs. CONCLUSION Elderly patients with non-specific complaints need to be screened systematically for drug-related problems. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00920491.

Vesicular stomatitis virus replicon expressing the VP2 outer capsid protein of bluetongue virus serotype 8 induces complete protection of sheep against challenge infection.

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arthropod-borne pathogen that causes an often fatal, hemorrhagic disease in ruminants. Different BTV serotypes occur throughout many temperate and tropical regions of the world. In 2006, BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) emerged in Central and Northern Europe for the first time. Although this outbreak was eventually controlled using inactivated virus vaccines, the epidemic caused significant economic losses not only from the disease in livestock but also from trade restrictions. To date, BTV vaccines that allow simple serological discrimination of infected and vaccinated animals (DIVA) have not been approved for use in livestock. In this study, we generated recombinant RNA replicon particles based on single-cycle vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) vectors. Immunization of sheep with infectious VSV replicon particles expressing the outer capsid VP2 protein of BTV-8 resulted in induction of BTV-8 serotype-specific neutralizing antibodies. After challenge with a virulent BTV-8 strain, the vaccinated animals neither developed signs of disease nor showed viremia. In contrast, immunization of sheep with recombinant VP5 - the second outer capsid protein of BTV - did not confer protection. Discrimination of infected from vaccinated animals was readily achieved using an ELISA for detection of antibodies against the VP7 antigen. These data indicate that VSV replicon particles potentially represent a safe and efficacious vaccine platform with which to control future outbreaks by BTV-8 or other serotypes, especially in previously non-endemic regions where discrimination between vaccinated and infected animals is crucial.

The Complexity of Non-Iterated Probabilistic Justification Logic

The logic PJ is a probabilistic logic defined by adding (noniterated) probability operators to the basic justification logic J. In this paper we establish upper and lower bounds for the complexity of the derivability problem in the logic PJ. The main result of the paper is that the complexity of the derivability problem in PJ remains the same as the complexity of the derivability problem in the underlying logic J, which is π[p/2] -complete. This implies that the probability operators do not increase the complexity of the logic, although they arguably enrich the expressiveness of the language.

Motivational interviewing and feedback for college drinkers: Handling missing values with complete case analysis and multiple imputation

Objective: In this secondary data analysis, three statistical methodologies were implemented to handle cases with missing data in a motivational interviewing and feedback study. The aim was to evaluate the impact that these methodologies have on the data analysis. ^ Methods: We first evaluated whether the assumption of missing completely at random held for this study. We then proceeded to conduct a secondary data analysis using a mixed linear model to handle missing data with three methodologies (a) complete case analysis, (b) multiple imputation with explicit model containing outcome variables, time, and the interaction of time and treatment, and (c) multiple imputation with explicit model containing outcome variables, time, the interaction of time and treatment, and additional covariates (e.g., age, gender, smoke, years in school, marital status, housing, race/ethnicity, and if participants play on athletic team). Several comparisons were conducted including the following ones: 1) the motivation interviewing with feedback group (MIF) vs. the assessment only group (AO), the motivation interviewing group (MIO) vs. AO, and the intervention of the feedback only group (FBO) vs. AO, 2) MIF vs. FBO, and 3) MIF vs. MIO.^ Results: We first evaluated the patterns of missingness in this study, which indicated that about 13% of participants showed monotone missing patterns, and about 3.5% showed non-monotone missing patterns. Then we evaluated the assumption of missing completely at random by Little's missing completely at random (MCAR) test, in which the Chi-Square test statistic was 167.8 with 125 degrees of freedom, and its associated p-value was p=0.006, which indicated that the data could not be assumed to be missing completely at random. After that, we compared if the three different strategies reached the same results. For the comparison between MIF and AO as well as the comparison between MIF and FBO, only the multiple imputation with additional covariates by uncongenial and congenial models reached different results. For the comparison between MIF and MIO, all the methodologies for handling missing values obtained different results. ^ Discussions: The study indicated that, first, missingness was crucial in this study. Second, to understand the assumptions of the model was important since we could not identify if the data were missing at random or missing not at random. Therefore, future researches should focus on exploring more sensitivity analyses under missing not at random assumption.^

Understanding the roles of Non-homologous end joining and p53 after DNA damage

The inability to maintain genomic stability and control proliferation are hallmarks of many cancers, which become exacerbated in the presence of unrepaired DNA damage. Such genotoxic stresses trigger the p53 tumor suppressor network to activate transient cell cycle arrest allowing for DNA repair; if the damage is excessive or irreparable, apoptosis or cellular senescence is triggered. One of the major DNA repair pathway that mends DNA double strand breaks is non-homologous end joining (NHEJ). Abrogating the NHEJ pathway leads to an accumulation of DNA damage in the lymphoid system that triggers p53-mediated apoptosis; complete deletion of p53 in this system leads to aggressive lymphomagenesis. Therefore, to study the effect of p53-dependent cell cycle arrest, we utilized a hypomorphic, separation-of-function mutant, p53p/p, which completely abrogates apoptosis yet retains partial cell cycle arrest ability. We crossed DNA ligase IV deficiency, a downstream ligase crucial in mending breaks during NHEJ, into the p53p/p background (Lig4-/-p53p/p). The accumulation of DNA damage activated the p53/p21 axis to trigger cellular senescence in developing lymphoid cells, which absolutely suppressed tumorigenesis. Interestingly, these mice progressively succumb to severe diabetes. Mechanistic analysis revealed that spontaneous DNA damage accumulated in the pancreatic b-cells, a unique subset of endocrine cells solely responsible for insulin production to regulate glucose homeostasis. The genesis of adult b-cells predominantly occurs through self-replication, therefore modulating cellular proliferation is an essential component for renewal. The progressive accumulation of DNA damage, caused by Lig4-/-, activated p53/p21-dependent cellular senescence in mutant pancreatic b-cells that lead to islet involution. Insulin levels subsequently decreased, deregulating glucose homeostasis driving overt diabetes. Our Lig4-/-p53p/p model aptly depicts the dichotomous role of cellular senescence—in the lymphoid system prevents tumorigenesis yet in the endocrine system leads to the decrease of insulin-producing cells causing diabetes. To further delineate the function of NHEJ in pancreatic b-cells, we analyzed mice deficient in another component of the NHEJ pathway, Ku70. Although most notable for its role in DNA damage recognition and repair within the NHEJ pathway, Ku70 has NHEJ-independent functions in telomere maintenance, apoptosis, and transcriptional regulation/repression. To our surprise, Ku70-/-p53p/p mutant mice displayed a stark increase in b-cell proliferation, resulting in islet expansion, heightened insulin levels and hypoglycemia. Augmented b-cell proliferation was accompanied with the stabilization of the canonical Wnt pathway, responsible for this phenotype. Interestingly, the progressive onset of cellular senescence prevented islet tumorigenesis. This study highlights Ku70 as an important modulator in not only maintaining genomic stability through NHEJ-dependent functions, but also reveals a novel NHEJ-independent function through regulation of pancreatic b-cell proliferation. Taken in aggregate, these studies underscore the importance for NHEJ to maintain genomic stability in b-cells as well as introduces a novel regulator for pancreatic b-cell proliferation.