Exact solutions for the agricultural and the two-dimensional packing problems

Objectives and study method: The objective of this study is to develop exact algorithms that can be used as management tools for the agricultural production planning and to obtain exact solutions for two of the most well known twodimensional packing problems: the strip packing problem and the bin packing problem. For the agricultural production planning problem we propose a new hierarchical scheme of three stages to improve the current agricultural practices. The objective of the first stage is to delineate rectangular and homogeneous management zones into the farmer’s plots considering the physical and chemical soil properties. This is an important task because the soil properties directly affect the agricultural production planning. The methodology for this stage is based on a new method called “Positions and Covering” that first generates all the possible positions in which the plot can be delineated. Then, we use a mathematical model of linear programming to obtain the optimal physical and chemical management zone delineation of the plot. In the second stage the objective is to determine the optimal crop pattern that maximizes the farmer’s profit taken into account the previous management zones delineation. In this case, the crop pattern is affected by both management zones delineation, physical and chemical. A mixed integer linear programming is used to solve this stage. The objective of the last stage is to determine in real-time the amount of water to irrigate in each crop. This stage takes as input the solution of the crop planning stage, the atmospheric conditions (temperature, radiation, etc.), the humidity level in plots, and the physical management zones of plots, just to name a few. This procedure is made in real-time during each irrigation period. A linear programming is used to solve this problem. A breakthrough happen when we realize that we could propose some adaptations of the P&C methodology to obtain optimal solutions for the two-dimensional packing problem and the strip packing. We empirically show that our methodologies are efficient on instances based on real data for both problems: agricultural and two-dimensional packing problems. Contributions and conclusions: The exact algorithms showed in this study can be used in the making-decision support for agricultural planning and twodimensional packing problems. For the agricultural planning problem, we show that the implementation of the new hierarchical approach can improve the farmer profit between 5.27% until 8.21% through the optimization of the natural resources. An important characteristic of this problem is that the soil properties (physical and chemical) and the real-time factors (climate, humidity level, evapotranspiration, etc.) are incorporated. With respect to the two-dimensional packing problems, one of the main contributions of this study is the fact that we have demonstrate that many of the best solutions founded in literature by others approaches (heuristics approaches) are the optimal solutions. This is very important because some of these solutions were up to now not guarantee to be the optimal solutions.

What Are Effective Program Characteristics of Self-Management Interventions in Patients With Heart Failure? : An Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis

Background To identify those characteristics of self-management interventions in patients with heart failure (HF) that are effective in influencing health-related quality of life, mortality, and hospitalizations. Methods and Results Randomized trials on self-management interventions conducted between January 1985 and June 2013 were identified and individual patient data were requested for meta-analysis. Generalized mixed effects models and Cox proportional hazard models including frailty terms were used to assess the relation between characteristics of interventions and health-related outcomes. Twenty randomized trials (5624 patients) were included. Longer intervention duration reduced mortality risk (hazard ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.97–0.999 per month increase in duration), risk of HF-related hospitalization (hazard ratio 0.98, 95% CI 0.96–0.99), and HF-related hospitalization at 6 months (risk ratio 0.96, 95% CI 0.92–0.995). Although results were not consistent across outcomes, interventions comprising standardized training of interventionists, peer contact, log keeping, or goal-setting skills appeared less effective than interventions without these characteristics. Conclusion No specific program characteristics were consistently associated with better effects of self-management interventions, but longer duration seemed to improve the effect of self-management interventions on several outcomes. Future research using factorial trial designs and process evaluations is needed to understand the working mechanism of specific program characteristics of self-management interventions in HF patients.

Coordinated Scheduling of Wind-Thermal Gencos in Day-Ahead Markets

This paper presents a stochastic mixed-integer linear programming approach for solving the self-scheduling problem of a price-taker thermal and wind power producer taking part in a pool-based electricity market. Uncertainty on electricity price and wind power is considered through a set of scenarios. Thermal units are modeled by variable costs, start-up costs and technical operating constraints, such as: ramp up/down limits and minimum up/down time limits. An efficient mixed-integer linear program is presented to develop the offering strategies of the coordinated production of thermal and wind energy generation, aiming to maximize the expected profit. A case study with data from the Iberian Electricity Market is presented and results are discussed to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Bidding Decision of Wind-Thermal GenCo in Day-Ahead Market

This paper deals with the self-scheduling problem of a price-taker having wind and thermal power production and assisted by a cyber-physical system for supporting management decisions in a day-ahead electric energy market. The self-scheduling is regarded as a stochastic mixed-integer linear programming problem. Uncertainties on electricity price and wind power are considered through a set of scenarios. Thermal units are modelled by start-up and variable costs, furthermore constraints are considered, such as: ramp up/down and minimum up/down time limits. The stochastic mixed-integer linear programming problem allows a decision support for strategies advantaging from an effective wind and thermal mixed bidding. A case study is presented using data from the Iberian electricity market.

Bidding strategy of wind-thermal energy producers

This paper presents a stochastic mixed-integer linear programming approach for solving the self-scheduling problem of a price-taker thermal and wind power producer taking part in a pool-based electricity market. Uncertainty on electricity price and wind power is considered through a set of scenarios. Thermal units are modelled by variable costs, start-up costs and technical operating constraints, such as: forbidden operating zones, ramp up/down limits and minimum up/down time limits. An efficient mixed-integer linear program is presented to develop the offering strategies of the coordinated production of thermal and wind energy generation, having as a goal the maximization of profit. A case study with data from the Iberian Electricity Market is presented and results are discussed to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Predição de ganhos genéticos via modelos mistos em progênies de café Conilon.

Objetivou-se, neste trabalho, avaliar os ganhos genéticos preditos por meio de diferentes índices de seleção pela metodologia REML/BLUP, em cinco caracteres de interesse ao programa de melhoramento do café conilon do Incaper. Foram avaliadas 8 progênies de meios-irmãos, de ciclo de maturação precoce, média de duas safras, com três repetições, o que totalizou 1368 observações, utilizados os índices de seleção clássico, multiplicativo e com base na soma de postos. Avaliaramse, na época de colheita, as características tamanho dos grãos (TG), produtividade (PRO), porte (PT), vigor vegetativo (VIG) e grau de inclinação (GI). A população foi avaliada na Fazenda Experimental de Marilândia, região Noroeste do estado do Espírito Santo. As análises genético-estatísticas foram realizadas pelo programa Selegen - REM/BLUP. Verificou-se, a partir da análise dos parâmetros genéticos, um excelente potencial seletivo entre famílias, para todas as características avaliadas. O índice Mulamba e Mock foi o que mostrou maior eficiência de seleção entre famílias de meios-irmãos de café conilon.

Analysing commercial catch and effort data from a penaeid trawl fishery: A comparison of linear models, mixed models, and generalised estimating equations approaches

Statistical methods are often used to analyse commercial catch and effort data to provide standardised fishing effort and/or a relative index of fish abundance for input into stock assessment models. Achieving reliable results has proved difficult in Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF), due to a combination of such factors as the biological characteristics of the animals, some aspects of the fleet dynamics, and the changes in fishing technology. For this set of data, we compared four modelling approaches (linear models, mixed models, generalised estimating equations, and generalised linear models) with respect to the outcomes of the standardised fishing effort or the relative index of abundance. We also varied the number and form of vessel covariates in the models. Within a subset of data from this fishery, modelling correlation structures did not alter the conclusions from simpler statistical models. The random-effects models also yielded similar results. This is because the estimators are all consistent even if the correlation structure is mis-specified, and the data set is very large. However, the standard errors from different models differed, suggesting that different methods have different statistical efficiency. We suggest that there is value in modelling the variance function and the correlation structure, to make valid and efficient statistical inferences and gain insight into the data. We found that fishing power was separable from the indices of prawn abundance only when we offset the impact of vessel characteristics at assumed values from external sources. This may be due to the large degree of confounding within the data, and the extreme temporal changes in certain aspects of individual vessels, the fleet and the fleet dynamics.

Reference Points Based on Dynamic Optimisation: A Versatil Algorithm for Mixed Fishery Management with Bio-economic Agestructured Models

Single-species management objectives may not be consistent within mixed fisheries. They may lead species to unsafe situations, promote discarding of over-quota and/or misreporting of catches. We provide an algorithm for characterising bio-economic reference points for a mixed fishery as the steady-state solution of a dynamic optimal management problem. The optimisation problem takes into account: i) that species are fishing simultaneously in unselective fishing operations and ii)intertemporal discounting and fleet costs to relate reference points to discounted economic profits along optimal trajectories. We illustrate how the algorithm can be implemented by applying it to the European Northern Stock of Hake (Merluccius merluccius), where fleets also capture Northern megrim (Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis) and Northern anglerfish (Lophius piscatorius and Lophius budegassa). We find that optimal mixed management leads to a target reference point that is quite similar to the 2/3 of the Fmsy single-species (hake) target. Mixed management is superior to singlespecies management because it leads the fishery to higher discounted profits with higher long-term SSB for all species. We calculate that the losses due to the use of the Fmsy single-species (hake) target in this mixed fishery account for 11.4% of total discounted profits.

Rao-Blackwellized particle smoothers for mixed linear/nonlinear state-space models

We consider the smoothing problem for a class of conditionally linear Gaussian state-space (CLGSS) models, referred to as mixed linear/nonlinear models. In contrast to the better studied hierarchical CLGSS models, these allow for an intricate cross dependence between the linear and the nonlinear parts of the state vector. We derive a Rao-Blackwellized particle smoother (RBPS) for this model class by exploiting its tractable substructure. The smoother is of the forward filtering/backward simulation type. A key feature of the proposed method is that, unlike existing RBPS for this model class, the linear part of the state vector is marginalized out in both the forward direction and in the backward direction. © 2013 IEEE.

Bayesian mixed models and divergence time estimation of Chinese cavefishes (Cyprinidae : Sinocyclocheilus)

The genus Sinocyclocheilus is distributed in Yun-Gui Plateau and its surrounding region only, within more than 10 cave species showing different degrees of degeneration of eyes and pigmentation with wonderful adaptations. To present, published morphological and molecular phylogenetic hypotheses of Sinocyclocheilus from prior works are very different and the relationships within the genus are still far from clear. We obtained the sequences of cytochrome b (cyt b) and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4 (ND4) of 34 species within Sinocyclocheilus, which represent the most dense taxon sampling to date. We performed Bayesian mixed models analyses with this data set. Under this phylogenetic framework, we estimated the divergence times of recovered clades using different methods under relaxed molecular clock. Our phyloegentic results supported the monophyly of Sinocyclocheilus and showed that this genus could be subdivided into 6 major clades. In addition, an earlier finding demonstrating the polyphyletic of cave species and the most basal position of S. jii was corroborated. Relaxed divergence-time estimation suggested that Sinocyclocheilus originated at the late Miocene, about 11 million years ago (Ma), which is older than what have been assumed.

Bayesian Gaussian Copula Factor Models for Mixed Data.

Gaussian factor models have proven widely useful for parsimoniously characterizing dependence in multivariate data. There is a rich literature on their extension to mixed categorical and continuous variables, using latent Gaussian variables or through generalized latent trait models acommodating measurements in the exponential family. However, when generalizing to non-Gaussian measured variables the latent variables typically influence both the dependence structure and the form of the marginal distributions, complicating interpretation and introducing artifacts. To address this problem we propose a novel class of Bayesian Gaussian copula factor models which decouple the latent factors from the marginal distributions. A semiparametric specification for the marginals based on the extended rank likelihood yields straightforward implementation and substantial computational gains. We provide new theoretical and empirical justifications for using this likelihood in Bayesian inference. We propose new default priors for the factor loadings and develop efficient parameter-expanded Gibbs sampling for posterior computation. The methods are evaluated through simulations and applied to a dataset in political science. The models in this paper are implemented in the R package bfa.

Revisiting the carrier-phase source-term formulation in mixed Lagrangian-Eulerian particle models

The formulation of the carrier-phase momentum and enthalpy source terms in mixed Lagrangian-Eulerian models of particle-laden flows is frequently reported inaccurately. Under certain circumstances, this can lead to erroneous implementations, which violate physical laws. A particle- rather than carrier-based approach is suggested for a consistent treatment of these terms.

Willingness to Pay for Rural Landscape Improvements: Combining Mixed Logit and Random-Effects Models

This paper reports the findings from a discrete-choice experiment designed to estimate the economic benefits associated with rural landscape improvements in Ireland. Using a mixed logit model, the panel nature of the dataset is exploited to retrieve willingness-to-pay values for every individual in the sample. This departs from customary approaches in which the willingness-to-pay estimates are normally expressed as measures of central tendency of an a priori distribution. Random-effects models for panel data are subsequently used to identify the determinants of the individual-specific willingness-to-pay estimates. In comparison with the standard methods used to incorporate individual-specific variables into the analysis of discrete-choice experiments, the analytical approach outlined in this paper is shown to add considerable explanatory power to the welfare estimates.