First use of multiple substances: Identification of meaningful patterns

Context: Understanding the process through which adolescents and young adults are trying legal and illegal substances is a crucial point for the development of tailored prevention and treatment programs. However, patterns of substance first use can be very complex when multiple substances are considered, requiring reduction into a few meaningful number of categories. Data: We used data from a survey on adolescent and young adult health conducted in 2002 in Switzerland. Answers from 2212 subjects aged 19 and 20 were included. The first consumption ever of 10 substances (tobacco, cannabis, medicine to get high, sniff (volatile substances, and inhalants), ecstasy, GHB, LSD, cocaine, methadone, and heroin) was considered for a grand total of 516 different patterns. Methods: In a first step, automatic clustering was used to decrease the number of patterns to 50. Then, two groups of substance use experts, three social field workers, and three toxicologists and health professionals, were asked to reduce them into a maximum of 10 meaningful categories. Results: Classifications obtained through our methodology are of practical interest by revealing associations invisible to purely automatic algorithms. The article includes a detailed analysis of both final classifications, and a discussion on the advantages and limitations of our approach.

Trypanosoma cruzi: identification of specific epimastigote antigens by human immune sera

Soluble antigens from epimastigotes of Trypanosoma cruzi were analyzed by western blot in terms of their reactivity with sera from patients with Chagas' disease. In addition, sera from patients with visceral (AVL) and tegumentar leishmaniasis (ATL) were also tested in order to identify cross-reactivities with Trypanosoma cruzy antigens. Twenty eight polypeptides with molecular weights ranging from 14 kDa to 113 kDa were identified with sera from Chagas' disease patients. An extensive cross-reactivity was observed when sera from human visceral leishmaniasis were used, while only a slight cross-reaction was observed with sera from tegumentar leishmaniasis. On the other hand, 10 polypeptidesspecifically reacting with sera from Chagas' disease patients were identified. Among them, the antigens with molecular weights of 46 kDa and 25 kDa reacted with all sera teste and may be good candidates for specific immunodiagnosis of Chagas' disease.

Identification of immunogenic proteins of Waddlia chondrophila.

Evidence is growing for a role of Waddlia chondrophila as an agent of adverse pregnancy outcomes in both humans and ruminants. This emerging pathogen, member of the order Chlamydiales, is also implicated in bronchiolitis and lower respiratory tract infections. Until now, the serological diagnosis of W. chondrophila infection has mainly relied on manually intensive tests including micro-immunofluorescence and Western blotting. Thus, there is an urgent need to establish reliable high throughput serological assays. Using a combined genomic and proteomic approach, we detected 57 immunogenic proteins of W. chondrophila, of which 17 were analysed by mass spectrometry. Two novel hypothetical proteins, Wim3 and Wim4, were expressed as recombinant proteins in Escherichia coli, purified and used as antigens in an ELISA test. Both proteins were recognized by sera of rabbits immunized with W. chondrophila as well as by human W. chondrophila positive sera but not by rabbit pre-immune sera nor human W. chondrophila negative sera. These results demonstrated that the approach chosen is suitable to identify immunogenic proteins that can be used to develop a serological test. This latter will be a valuable tool to further clarify the pathogenic potential of W. chondrophila.

Identification of C7orf11 (TTDN1) gene mutations and genetic heterogeneity in nonphotosensitive trichothiodystrophy.

We have identified C7orf11, which localizes to the nucleus and is expressed in fetal hair follicles, as the first disease gene for nonphotosensitive trichothiodystrophy (TTD). C7orf11 maps to chromosome 7p14, and the disease locus has been designated "TTDN1" (TTD nonphotosensitive 1). Mutations were found in patients with Amish brittle-hair syndrome and in other nonphotosensititive TTD cases with mental retardation and decreased fertility but not in patients with Sabinas syndrome or Pollitt syndrome. Therefore, genetic heterogeneity in nonphotosensitive TTD is a feature similar to that observed in photosensitive TTD, which is caused by mutations in transcription factor II H (TFIIH) subunit genes. Comparative immunofluorescence analysis, however, suggests that C7orf11 does not influence TFIIH directly. Given the absence of cutaneous photosensitivity in the patients with C7orf11 mutations, together with the protein's nuclear localization, C7orf11 may be involved in transcription but not DNA repair.

A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.

A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.

Measuring the Economic Significance of Structural Exchange Rate Models

This paper examines both the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of three monetary fundamental models of exchange rates and compares their out-of-sample performance to that of a simple Random Walk model. Using a data-set consisting of five currencies at monthly frequency over the period January 1980 to December 2009 and a battery of newly developed performance measures, the paper shows that monetary models do better (in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting) than a simple Random Walk model.

The Difference, System and ‘Double-D’ GMM Panel Estimators in the Presence of Structural Breaks

The effects of structural breaks in dynamic panels are more complicated than in time series models as the bias can be either negative or positive. This paper focuses on the effects of mean shifts in otherwise stationary processes within an instrumental variable panel estimation framework. We show the sources of the bias and a Monte Carlo analysis calibrated on United States bank lending data demonstrates the size of the bias for a range of auto-regressive parameters. We also propose additional moment conditions that can be used to reduce the biases caused by shifts in the mean of the data.

Identification of particular groups of microRNAs that positively or negatively impact on beta cell function in obese models of type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: MicroRNAs are key regulators of gene expression involved in health and disease. The goal of our study was to investigate the global changes in beta cell microRNA expression occurring in two models of obesity-associated type 2 diabetes and to assess their potential contribution to the development of the disease. METHODS: MicroRNA profiling of pancreatic islets isolated from prediabetic and diabetic db/db mice and from mice fed a high-fat diet was performed by microarray. The functional impact of the changes in microRNA expression was assessed by reproducing them in vitro in primary rat and human beta cells. RESULTS: MicroRNAs differentially expressed in both models of obesity-associated type 2 diabetes fall into two distinct categories. A group including miR-132, miR-184 and miR-338-3p displays expression changes occurring long before the onset of diabetes. Functional studies indicate that these expression changes have positive effects on beta cell activities and mass. In contrast, modifications in the levels of miR-34a, miR-146a, miR-199a-3p, miR-203, miR-210 and miR-383 primarily occur in diabetic mice and result in increased beta cell apoptosis. These results indicate that obesity and insulin resistance trigger adaptations in the levels of particular microRNAs to allow sustained beta cell function, and that additional microRNA deregulation negatively impacting on insulin-secreting cells may cause beta cell demise and diabetes manifestation. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We propose that maintenance of blood glucose homeostasis or progression toward glucose intolerance and type 2 diabetes may be determined by the balance between expression changes of particular microRNAs.

Identification of case complexity and increased health care utilization in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: To document biopsychosocial profiles of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) by means of the INTERMED and to correlate the results with conventional methods of disease assessment and health care utilization. METHODS: Patients with RA (n = 75) were evaluated with the INTERMED, an instrument for assessing case complexity and care needs. Based on their INTERMED scores, patients were compared with regard to severity of illness, functional status, and health care utilization. RESULTS: In cluster analysis, a 2-cluster solution emerged, with about half of the patients characterized as complex. Complex patients scoring especially high in the psychosocial domain of the INTERMED were disabled significantly more often and took more psychotropic drugs. Although the 2 patient groups did not differ in severity of illness and functional status, complex patients rated their illness as more severe on subjective measures and on most items of the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36. Complex patients showed increased health care utilization despite a similar biologic profile. CONCLUSIONS: The INTERMED identified complex patients with increased health care utilization, provided meaningful and comprehensive patient information, and proved to be easy to implement and advantageous compared with conventional methods of disease assessment. Intervention studies will have to demonstrate whether management strategies based on INTERMED profiles can improve treatment response and outcome of complex patients.

Real-time PCR for type-specific identification of herpes simplex in clinical samples: evaluation of type-specific results in the context of CNS diseases.

BACKGROUND: HSV-1 and HSV-2 cause CNS infections of dissimilar clinico-pathological characteristics with prognostic and therapeutic implications. OBJECTIVES: To validate a type-specific real-time PCR that uses MGB/LNA Taqman probes and to review the virologico-clinical data of 25 eligible patients with non-neonatal CNS infections. RESULTS: This real-time PCR was evaluated against conventional PCR (26 CSF and 20 quality controls), and LightCycler assay (51 mucocutaneous, 8 CSF and 32 quality controls) and culture/immunofluorescence (75 mucocutaneous) to assess typing with independent methods. Taqman real-time PCR detected 240 HSV genomes per ml CSF, a level appropriate for the management of patients, and provided unambiguous typing for the 104 positive (62 HSV-1 and 42 HSV-2) out the 160 independent clinical samples tested. HSV type diagnosed by Taqman real-time PCR predicted final diagnosis (meningitis versus encephalitis/meningoencephalitis, p<0.001) in 24/25 patients at time of presentation, in contrast to clinical evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: Our real-time PCR, as a sensitive and specific means for type-specific HSV diagnosis, provided rapid prognostic information for patient management.