Capturing Weak Signals for Foresight Building

Tulevaisuuden hahmottamisen merkitys heikkojen signaalien avulla on korostunut viime vuosien aikana merkittävästi,koska yrityksen liiketoimintaympäristössä tapahtuvia muutoksia on ollut yhä vaikeampaa ennustaa historian perusteella. Liiketoimintaympäristössä monien muutoksien merkkejä on ollut nähtävissä, mutta niitä on ollut vaikea havaita. Heikkoja signaaleja tunnistamalla ja keräämällä sekä reagoimalla tilanteeseen riittävän ajoissa, on mahdollista saavuttaa ylivoimaista kilpailuetua. Kirjallisuustutkimus keskittyy heikkojen signaalien tunnistamisen haasteisiin liiketoimintaympäristöstä, signaalien ja informaation kehittymiseen sekä informaation hallintaan organisaatiossa. Kiinnostus näihin perustuu tarpeeseen määritellä heikkojen signaalien tunnistamiseen vaadittava prosessi, jonka avulla heikot signaalit voidaan huomioida M-real Oyj:n päätöksenteossa. Kirjallisuustutkimus osoittaa selvästi sen, että heikkoja signaaleita on olemassa ja niitä pystytään tunnistamaan liiketoimintaympäristöstä. Signaaleja voidaan rikastuttaa yrityksessä olevalla tietämyksellä ja hyödyntää edelleen päätöksenteossa. Vertailtaessa sekä kirjallisuustutkimusta että empiiristä tutkimusta tuli ilmi selkeästi tiedon moninaisuus; määrä,laatu ja tiedonsaannin oikea-aikaisuus päätöksenteossa. Tutkimuksen aikana kehittyi prosessimalli tiedon suodattamiselle, luokittelulle ja heikkojen signaalien tunnistamiselle. Työn edetessä prosessimalli kehittyi osaksi tässä työssä kehitettyä kokonaisuutta 'Weak Signal Capturing' -työkalua. Monistamalla työkalua voidaan kerätä heikkoja signaaleja eri M-realin liiketoiminnan osa-alueilta. Tietoja systemaattisesti kokoamalla voidaan kartoittaa tulevaisuutta koko M-realille.

The Development of Weak Signal Concept

Tämän hetken trendit kuten globalisoituminen, ympäristömme turbulenttisuus, elintason nousu, turvallisuuden tarpeen kasvu ja teknologian kehitysnopeus korostavatmuutosten ennakoinnin tarpeellisuutta. Pysyäkseen kilpailukykyisenä yritysten tulee kerätä, analysoida ja hyödyntää liiketoimintatietoa, jokatukee niiden toimintaa viranomaisten, kilpailijoiden ja asiakkaiden toimenpiteiden ennakoinnissa. Innovoinnin ja uusien konseptien kehittäminen, kilpailijoiden toiminnan arviointi, asiakkaiden tarpeet muun muassa vaativatennakoivaa arviointia. Heikot signaalit ovat keskeisessä osassa organisaatioiden valmistautumisessa tulevaisuuden tapahtumiin. Opinnäytetyön tarkoitus on luoda ja kehittää heikkojen signaalien ymmärrystä ja hallintaa sekäkehittää konseptuaalinen ja käytännöllinen lähestymistapa ennakoivan toiminnan edistämiselle. Heikkojen signaalien tyyppien luokittelu perustuu ominaisuuksiin ajan, voimakkuuden ja liiketoimintaan integroinnin suhteen. Erityyppiset heikot signaalit piirteineen luovat reunaehdot laatutekijöiden keräämiselle ja siitä edelleen laatujärjestelmän ja matemaattiseen malliin perustuvan työvälineen kehittämiselle. Heikkojen signaalien laatutekijät on kerätty yhteen kaikista heikkojen signaalien konseptin alueista. Analysoidut ja kohdistetut laatumuuttujat antavat mahdollisuuden kehittää esianalyysiä ja ICT - työvälineitä perustuen matemaattisen mallin käyttöön. Opinnäytetyön tavoitteiden saavuttamiseksi tehtiin ensin Business Intelligence -kirjallisuustutkimus. Hiekkojen signaalien prosessi ja systeemi perustuvat koottuun Business Intelligence - systeemiin. Keskeisinä kehitysalueina tarkasteltiin liiketoiminnan integraatiota ja systemaattisen menetelmän kehitysaluetta. Heikkojen signaalien menetelmien ja määritelmien kerääminen sekä integrointi määriteltyyn prosessiin luovat uuden konseptin perustan, johon tyypitys ja laatutekijät kytkeytyvät. Käytännöllisen toiminnan tarkastelun ja käyttöönoton mahdollistamiseksi toteutettiin Business Intelligence markkinatutkimus (n=156) sekä yhteenveto muihin saatavilla oleviin markkinatutkimuksiin. Syvähaastatteluilla (n=21) varmennettiin laadullisen tarkastelun oikeellisuus. Lisäksi analysoitiin neljä käytännön projektia, joiden yhteenvedot kytkettiin uuden konseptin kehittämiseen. Prosessi voidaan jakaa kahteen luokkaan: yritysten markkinasignaalit vuoden ennakoinnilla ja julkisen sektorin verkostoprojektit kehittäen ennakoinnin struktuurin luonnin 7-15 vuoden ennakoivalle toiminnalle. Tutkimus rajattiin koskemaan pääasiassa ulkoisen tiedon aluetta. IT työvälineet ja lopullisen laatusysteemin kehittäminen jätettiin tutkimuksen ulkopuolelle. Opinnäytetyön tavoitteena ollut heikkojen signaalien konseptin kehittäminen toteutti sille asetetut odotusarvot. Heikkojen signaalien systemaattista tarkastelua ja kehittämistyötä on mahdollista edistää Business Intelligence - systematiikan hyödyntämisellä. Business Intelligence - systematiikkaa käytetään isojen yritysten liiketoiminnan suunnittelun tukena.Organisaatioiden toiminnassa ei ole kuitenkaan yleisesti hyödynnetty laadulliseen analyysiin tukeutuvaa ennakoinnin weak signals - toimintaa. Ulkoisenja sisäisen tiedon integroinnin ja systematiikan hyödyt PK -yritysten tukena vaativat merkittävää panostusta julkishallinnon rahoituksen ja kehitystoiminnan tukimuotoina. Ennakointi onkin tuottanut lukuisia julkishallinnon raportteja, mutta ei käytännön toteutuksia. Toisaalta analysoitujen case-tapausten tuloksena voidaan nähdä, ettei organisaatioissa välttämättä tarvita omaa projektipäällikköä liiketoiminnan tuen kehittämiseksi. Business vastuun ottamiseksi ja asiaan sitoutumiseen on kuitenkin löydyttävä oikea henkilö

Investigation of discrete imaging models and iterative image reconstruction in differential X-ray phase-contrast tomography.

Differential X-ray phase-contrast tomography (DPCT) refers to a class of promising methods for reconstructing the X-ray refractive index distribution of materials that present weak X-ray absorption contrast. The tomographic projection data in DPCT, from which an estimate of the refractive index distribution is reconstructed, correspond to one-dimensional (1D) derivatives of the two-dimensional (2D) Radon transform of the refractive index distribution. There is an important need for the development of iterative image reconstruction methods for DPCT that can yield useful images from few-view projection data, thereby mitigating the long data-acquisition times and large radiation doses associated with use of analytic reconstruction methods. In this work, we analyze the numerical and statistical properties of two classes of discrete imaging models that form the basis for iterative image reconstruction in DPCT. We also investigate the use of one of the models with a modern image reconstruction algorithm for performing few-view image reconstruction of a tissue specimen.

Validation of an Adapted French Form of the Career Adapt-Abilities Scale in four Francophone Countries

This study presents the validation of a French version of the Career Adapt-Abilities Scale in four Francophone countries. The aim was to re-analyze the item selection and then compare this newly developed French-language form with the international form 2.0. Exploratory factor analysis was used as a tool for item selection, and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) verified the structure of the CAAS French-language form. Measurement equivalence across the four countries was tested using multi-group CFA. Adults and adolescents (N=1,707) participated from Switzerland, Belgium, Luxembourg, and France. Items chosen for the final version of the CAAS French-language form are different to those in the CAAS international form 2.0 and provide an improvement in terms of reliability. The factor structure is replicable across country, age, and gender. Strong evidence for metric invariance and partial evidence for scalar invariance of the CAAS French-language form across countries is given. The CAAS French-language and CAAS international form 2.0 can be used in a combined form of 31 items. The CAAS French-language form will certainly be interesting for practitioners using interventions based on the life design paradigm or aiming at increasing career adapt-ability.

L'immunoscintigraphie par les anticorps monoclonaux radiomarqués. Evolution d'une méthode de diagnostic du cancer et espoir d'une nouvelle forme de thérapie [Immunoscintigraphy using radio-labeled monoclonal antibodies. Development of a method of cancer diagnosis and hopes for a new form of therapy].

Personal results are presented to illustrate the development of immunoscintigraphy for the detection of cancer over the last 12 years, from the early experimental results in nude mice grafted with human colon carcinoma to the most modern form of immunoscintigraphy applied to patients, using I123 labeled Fab fragments from monoclonal anti-CEA antibodies detected by single photon emission computerized tomography (SPECT). The first generation of immunoscintigraphy used I131 labeled, immunoadsorbent purified, polyclonal anti-CEA antibodies and planar scintigraphy, as the detection system. The second generation used I131 labeled monoclonal anti-CEA antibodies and SPECT, while the third generation employed I123 labeled fragments of monoclonal antibodies and SPECT. The improvement in the precision of tumor images with the most recent forms of immunoscintigraphy is obvious. However, we think the usefulness of immunoscintigraphy for routine cancer management has not yet been entirely demonstrated. Further prospective trials are still necessary to determine the precise clinical role of immunoscintigraphy. A case report is presented on a patient with two liver metastases from a sigmoid carcinoma, who received through the hepatic artery a therapeutic dose (100 mCi) of I131 coupled to 40 mg of a mixture of two high affinity anti-CEA monoclonal antibodies. Excellent localisation in the metastases of the I131 labeled antibodies was demonstrated by SPECT and the treatment was well tolerated. The irradiation dose to the tumor, however, was too low at 4300 rads (with 1075 rads to the normal liver and 88 rads to the bone marrow), and no evidence of tumor regression was obtained. Different approaches for increasing the irradiation dose delivered to the tumor by the antibodies are considered.

Translation of polarity cues into asymmetric spindle positioning in "Caenorhabditis elegans"

Abstract: Asymmetric cell division is important to generate tissue diversity. The Caenorhabditis elegans embryo is well suited to study the mechanisms of asymmetric cell division. In wild type one-cell stage embryos, the spindle sets up along the anterior-posterior axis (AP). During anaphase, the spindle elongates. While the anterior spindle pole is relatively immobile, the posterior spindle pole moves towards the posterior cortex during anaphase leading to an asymmetric spindle position. As a result, the first cleavage gives rise to a large anterior blastomere and a smaller posterior one, which differs also in cell fate determinants. This posterior spindle displacement occurs in response to polarity cues set up along the AP axis by the PAR proteins and is due to imbalanced pulling forces acting on the two spindle poles, with net forces acting on the posterior spindle pole being more extensive than those at the anterior one. The project of my thesis was to characterize the involvement of two new components, gpr-1 and gpr-2, in spindle positioning. These genes encode essentially identical proteins containing a GoLoco motif characteristic of proteins interacting with α subunits of heterotrimeric G protein (Gα). In gpr-1/2(RNAi) embryos and in embryos lacking simultaneously two α subunits, goa-1 and gpa-16, (Ga(RNAi) embryos), there is a minimal posterior displacement of the spindle during anaphase, and the first division is equal. I found that the pulling forces acting on the two spindle poles is weak and equal in gpr-1/2(RNAi) and Gα (RNAi) embryos. I found that GPR-1/2 acts downstream of polarity cues for generation of pulling forces. Furthermore, I showed that GPR-1/2 distribution was enriched at the posterior cortex during metaphase whereas GOA-1 and GPA-16 were uniformly distributed at the cell cortex throughout the cell cycle. Gα subunits oscillate between GDP- and GTP-bound forms. Gα signaling is turned on by GDP/GTP exchange catalyzed by guanine nucleotide exchange factors (GEFs) and turned off by hydrolysis of GTP catalyzed by GTPase activating proteins (GAPs). A third class of proteins, the guanine dissociation inhibitors (GDIs), binds the GDP-bound form of Gα subunits and inhibits nucleotide exchange. I found that GPR-1/2 acts as a GDI for GOA-1. Taken together, my findings suggest a model in which differential activation of Gα subunits along the AP axis may translate into generation of differential pulling forces on the anterior and posterior spindle poles, and, thus, asymmetric cell division. Résumé L'embryon du nématode Caenorhabditis elegans est un modèle approprié pour étudier les mécanismes de la division asymétrique. Chez l'embryon précoce, le fuseau mitotique se forme le long de l'axe antéro-postérieur (A/P) et au centre de l'embryon, le pôle antérieur restant relativement immobile alors que le pôle postérieur du fuseau se déplace vers le cortex postérieur au cours de l'anaphase conduisant à une position excentrée du fuseau. 11 en résulte une première division qui génère un blastomère antérieur et postérieur de grande et petite taille respectivement et qui diffèrent en facteurs développementaux. Ce déplacement postérieur se produit en réponse de la polarité établie par la distribution polarisée des protéines PAR et est le résultat de la génération de forces inégales tirant sur les deux pôles du fuseau, les forces agissant sur le pôle postérieur du fuseau étant plus grandes. Le projet de ma thèse était d'identifier la fonction de deux nouveaux constituants, gpr-1 et gpr-2 dans le positionnement asymétrique du fuseau. Ces gènes codent essentiellement pour la même protéine qui contient un motif GoLoco, caractéristique des protéines interagissant avec la sous-unité alpha des protéines G hétérotrimériques. Chez l'embryon gpr-1/2(RNAi) et chez les embryons dépourvus d'activité de deux sous-unités alpha, goa-1 et gpa-16, (Gα(RNAi)), j'ai montré qu'il y avait un déplacement minimal du fuseau vers le pôle postérieur au cours de l'anaphase et la première division est symétrique en raison de forces faibles et égales agissant sur les deux pôles du fuseau. J'ai également montré que gpr-1/2 était requis en aval des signaux établissant la polarité pour générer les forces responsables du positionnement asymétrique du fuseau. De plus, j'ai montré que GPR-1/2 était enrichi au pôle postérieur lors de la métaphase alors que GOA-1 et GPA-16 étaient localisés de façon uniforme au cortex de l'embryon précoce. Gas oscillent entre une forme liée au GDP et une forme liée au GTP. La signalisation des Gas est activée par l'échange GDP/GTP qui est catalysé par des protéines GEFs. La signalisation des Gas est désactivée par l'hydrolyse du GTP qui est catalysée par des protéines GAPs. Une troisième classe de protéines, GDIs lie la forme GDP et inhibe l'échange de nucléotides. J'ai montré que GPR-1/2 agissait comme un GDI pour GOA-1. Mes résultats suggèrent un modèle dans lequel une activation différentielle des Gα le long de l'axe A/P pourrait générer des forces différentielles sur le pôle antérieur et postérieur du fuseau.

Influence of stationary phase and eluent properties on chromatographic separation of carbohydrates

In this thesis, the sorption and elastic properties of the cation-exchange resins were studied to explain the liquid chromatographic separation of carbohydrates. Na+, Ca2+ and La3+ form strong poly(styrene-co-divinylbenzene) (SCE) as well as Na+ and Ca2+ form weak acrylic (WCE) cation-exchange resins at different cross-link densities were treated within this work. The focus was on the effects of water-alcohol mixtures, mostly aqueous ethanol, and that of the carbohydrates. The carbohydrates examined were rhamnose, xylose, glucose, fructose, arabinose, sucrose, xylitol and sorbitol. In addition to linear chromatographic conditions, non-linear conditions more typical for industrial applications were studied. Both experimental and modeling aspectswere covered. The aqueous alcohol sorption on the cation-exchangers were experimentally determined and theoretically calculated. The sorption model includes elastic parameters, which were obtained from sorption data combined with elasticity measurements. As hydrophilic materials cation-exchangers are water selective and shrink when an organic solvent is added. At a certain deswelling degree the elastic resins go through glass transition and become as glass-like material. Theincreasing cross-link level and the valence of the counterion decrease the sorption of solvent components in the water-rich solutions. The cross-linkage or thecounterions have less effect on the water selectivity than the resin type or the used alcohol. The amount of water sorbed is higher in the WCE resin and, moreover, the WCE resin is more water selective than the corresponding SCE resin. Theincreased aliphatic part of lower alcohols tend to increase the water selectivity, i.e. the resins are more water selective in 2-propanol than in ethanol solutions. Both the sorption behavior of carbohydrates and the sorption differences between carbohydrates are considerably affected by the eluent composition and theresin characteristics. The carbohydrate sorption was experimentally examined and modeled. In all cases, sorption and moreover the separation of carbohydrates are dominated by three phenomena: partition, ligand exchange and size exclusion. The sorption of hydrophilic carbohydrates increases when alcohol is added into the eluent or when carbohydrate is able to form coordination complexes with the counterions, especially with multivalent counterions. Decreasing polarity of the eluent enhances the complex stability. Size exclusion effect is more prominent when the resin becomes tighter or carbohydrate size increases. On the other hand,the elution volumes between different sized carbohydrates decreases with the decreasing polarity of the eluent. The chromatographic separation of carbohydrateswas modeled, using rhamnose and xylose as target molecules. The thermodynamic sorption model was successfully implemented in the rate-based column model. The experimental chromatographic data were fitted by using only one adjustable parameter. In addition to the fitted data also simulated data were generated and utilized in explaining the effect of the eluent composition and of the resin characteristics on the carbohydrate separation.

Potentiometric titration as a method of determining the stoichiometric dissociation constants of weak acids from the thermodynamic dissociation constants of aqueous solutions at 298.15 K

The simple single-ion activity coefficient equation originating from the Debye-Hückel theory was used to determine the thermodynamic and stoichiometric dissociation constants of weak acids from data concerning galvanic cells. Electromotive force data from galvanic cells without liquid junctions, which was obtained from literature, was studied in conjuction with the potentiometric titration data relating to aqueous solutions at 298.15 K. The dissociation constants of weak acids could be determined by the presented techniques and almost all the experimental data studied could be interpreted within the range of experimental error. Potentiometric titration has been used here and the calculation methods were developed to obtain the thermodynamic and stoichiometric dissociation constants of some weak acids in aqueous solutions at 298.15 K. The ionic strength of titrated solutions were adjusted using an inert electrolyte, namely, sodium or potassium chloride. Salt content alonedetermines the ionic strength. The ionic strength of the solutions studied varied from 0.059 mol kg-1 to 0.37 mol kg-1, and in some cases up to 1.0 mol kg-1. The following substances were investigated using potentiometric titration: aceticacid, propionic acid, L-aspartic acid, L-glutamic acid and bis(2,2-dimethyl-3-oxopropanol) amine.

Hémorragie par le canal de Wirsung: forme rare d'hémorragie digestive haute. A propos d'une observation [Hemorrhage through Wirsung's duct: rare form of upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage. A case report].

The case of a 41-year-old alcoholic patient who presented with massive upper gastrointestinal bleeding is reported. The diagnosis was established rapidly by endoscopy which revealed bleeding through the papilla of Vater. Selective angiography of the superior mesenteric artery opacified the pancreatic duct as well as the duodenum. CT scan showed signs of chronic pancreatitis. Because of the recurrence of bleeding and shock, an urgent operation was necessary and a Whipple procedure was performed. Recovery was complete. The clinical presentation, the etiology, the diagnostic modalities and the treatment of this particular condition are discussed. Usually, hemorrhage through the pancreatic duct presents as repeated episodes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding with no source found at endoscopy. The presence of chronic pancreatitis or of epigastric pain during bleeding should suggest the diagnosis. Upper gastrointestinal endoscopy and angiography are the principal diagnostic tools. Definitive treatment requires surgery, and resection in most of the cases.

An 8-Item Short Form of the Inventory of Dimensions of Emerging Adulthood (IDEA) Among Young Swiss Men.

Emerging adulthood is a period of life transition, in which youths are no longer adolescents but have not yet reached full adulthood. Measuring emerging adulthood is crucial because of its association with psychopathology and risky behaviors such as substance use. Unfortunately, the only validated scale for such measurement has a long format (Inventory of Dimensions of Emerging Adulthood [IDEA]-31 items). This study aimed to test whether a shorter form yields satisfactory results without substantial loss of information among a sample of young Swiss men. Data from the longitudinal Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors were used (N = 5,049). IDEA, adulthood markers (e.g., parenthood or financial independence), and risk factors (i.e., substance use and mental health issues) were assessed. The results showed that an 8-item, short-form scale (IDEA-8) with four factors (experimentation, negativity, identity exploration, and feeling in between) returned satisfactory results, including good psychometric properties, high convergence with the initial scale, and strong empirical validity. This study was a step toward downsizing a measure of emerging adulthood. Indeed, this 8-item short form is a good alternative to the 31-item long form and could be more convenient for surveys with constraints on questionnaire length. Moreover, it should help health care practitioners in identifying at-risk populations to prevent and treat risky behaviors.

Dilaton quantum cosmology in two dimensions

We consider a renormalizable two-dimensional model of dilaton gravity coupled to a set of conformal fields as a toy model for quantum cosmology. We discuss the cosmological solutions of the model and study the effect of including the back reaction due to quantum corrections. As a result, when the matter density is below some threshold new singularities form in a weak-coupling region, which suggests that they will not be removed in the full quantum theory. We also solve the Wheeler-DeWitt equation. Depending on the quantum state of the Universe, the singularities may appear in a quantum region where the wave function is not oscillatory, i.e., when there is not a well-defined notion of classical spacetime.

Psychometric properties and dimensional structure of the Spanish version of the Coping Responses Inventory - Adult Form

One of the goals of psychological assessment focuses on the adaptation of its instruments to different populations. The objective of this study is to establish the psychometric properties and dimensional structure of the Spanish version of the Coping Responses Inventory- Adult Form (CRI-Adult, Moos, 1993). The following criteria were analyzed: a) descriptive statistics; b) internal consistency reliability (Cronbach"s alpha, and intercorrelations between scales); c) test-retest reliability (4-week interval); d) dimensionality of CRI-Adult (exploratory factor analysis); e) construct validity (confirmatory factor analysis); f) convergent criterion validity (correlations between CRI-Adult and Coping Strategies Indicator, CSI, Amirkhan, 1990), and g) predictive criterion validity (correlations between CRI-Adult, and SCL-90-R, Derogatis, 1983). The results, obtained with 800 adults from Barcelona and surrounding area (334 men and 466 women, aged between 18 to 76 years) indicate that the Spanish version of CRIAdult has satisfactory psychometric properties that allow using this test with guarantee.