Evaluating and improving demand forecast practices for B2B and B2C sectors

Demand forecasting is one of the fundamental managerial tasks. Most companies do not know their future demands, so they have to make plans based on demand forecasts. The literature offers many methods and approaches for producing forecasts. Former literature points out that even though many forecasting methods and approaches are available, selecting a suitable approach and implementing and managing it is a complex cross-functional matter. However, it’s relatively rare that researches are focused on the differences in forecasting between consumer and industrial companies. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the potential of improving demand forecasting practices for B2B and B2C sectors in the global supply chains. Business to business (B2B) sector produces products for other manufacturing companies. On the other hand, consumer (B2C) sector provides goods for individual buyers. Usually industrial sector have a lower number of customers and closer relationships with them. The research questions of this thesis are: 1) What are the main differences and similarities in demand planning between B2B and B2C sectors? 2) How the forecast performance for industrial and consumer companies can be improved? The main methodological approach in this study is design science, where the main objective is to develop tentative solutions to real-life problems. The research data has been collected from a case company. Evaluation and improving in organizing demand forecasting can be found in three interlinked areas: 1) demand planning operational environment, 2) demand forecasting techniques, 3) demand information sharing scenarios. In this research current B2B and B2C demand practices are presented with further comparison between those two sectors. It was found that B2B and B2C sectors have significant differences in demand practices. This research partly filled the theoretical gap in understanding the difference in forecasting in consumer and industrial sectors. In all these areas, examples of managerial problems are described, and approaches for mitigating these problems are outlined.

Effect of image resolution manipulation in rearfoot angle measurements obtained with photogrammetry

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of image resolution manipulation on the photogrammetric measurement of the rearfoot static angle. The study design was that of a reliability study. We evaluated 19 healthy young adults (11 females and 8 males). The photographs were taken at 1536 pixels in the greatest dimension, resized into four different resolutions (1200, 768, 600, 384 pixels) and analyzed by three equally trained examiners on a 96-pixels per inch (ppi) screen. An experienced physiotherapist marked the anatomic landmarks of rearfoot static angles on two occasions within a 1-week interval. Three different examiners had marked angles on digital pictures. The systematic error and the smallest detectable difference were calculated from the angle values between the image resolutions and times of evaluation. Different resolutions were compared by analysis of variance. Inter- and intra-examiner reliability was calculated by intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC). The rearfoot static angles obtained by the examiners in each resolution were not different (P > 0.05); however, the higher the image resolution the better the inter-examiner reliability. The intra-examiner reliability (within a 1-week interval) was considered to be unacceptable for all image resolutions (ICC range: 0.08-0.52). The whole body image of an adult with a minimum size of 768 pixels analyzed on a 96-ppi screen can provide very good inter-examiner reliability for photogrammetric measurements of rearfoot static angles (ICC range: 0.85-0.92), although the intra-examiner reliability within each resolution was not acceptable. Therefore, this method is not a proper tool for follow-up evaluations of patients within a therapeutic protocol.

The Forecast Performance of Model-Free Implied Volatility: Evidence from DAX Index Options

Volatility has a central role in various theoretical and practical applications in financial markets. These include the applications related to portfolio theory, derivatives pricing and financial risk management. Both theoretical and practical applications require good estimates and forecasts for the asset return volatility. The goal of this study is to examine the forecast performance of one of the more recent volatility measures, model-free implied volatility. Model-free implied volatility is extracted from the prices in the option markets, and it aims to provide an unbiased estimate for the market’s expectation on the future level of volatility. Since it is extracted from the option prices, model-free implied volatility should contain all the relevant information that the market participants have. Moreover, model-free implied volatility requires less restrictive assumptions than the commonly used Black-Scholes implied volatility, which means that it should be less biased estimate for the market’s expectations. Therefore, it should also be a better forecast for the future volatility. The forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is evaluated by comparing it to the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility and GARCH(1,1) forecast. Weekly forecasts for six years period were calculated for the forecasted variable, German stock market index DAX. The data consisted of price observations for DAX index options. The forecast performance was measured using econometric methods, which aimed to capture the biasedness, accuracy and the information content of the forecasts. The results of the study suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is superior to forecast performance of GARCH(1,1) forecast. However, the results also suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is not as good as the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility, which is against the hypotheses based on theory. The results of this study are consistent with the majority of prior research on the subject.

Optimizing counterparty credit risk portfolio by reducing exposure at default variance

Rahoitusyhtiöt pitävät omaa pääomaa taseessa harvinaisen suuria markkinamuutoksia varten ja tämän pääoman määrä on ohjattu valvontaviranomaisten toimesta. Euroopassa Basel akordi antaa suuntaviivat näille säädöksille. 2007 vuoden finanssikriisin jälkeen rahoitusyhtiöt sekä valvojat ovat olleet entistä kiinnostuneempia pääoman riittävyydestä. Tutkimuksia riskistä, säädöksistä ja pääomavaateen madaltamisesta on tehty aikaisemmin, mutta tässä tutkimuksessa keskitytään vaateen jatkuvan muutoksen suuruuteen. Tutkimus sisältää hypoteettisen vastapuoliriski portfolion, jossa on mukana valuuttajohdannaisia. Tätä portfoliota simuloidaan eri tavoin, jotta nähtäisiin kuinka suuri vaikutus portfolion koostumuksella voi olla pääomavaateen varianssiin. Jos tämä muuttuja on merkittävä, pitäisikö rahoitusyhtiöiden yrittää pienentää muutosta, jotta yhtiöiden varapääoman määrää voitaisiin alentaa? Tutkimuksessa on myös haastateltu Suomen johtavia vastapuoliriski asiantuntijoita, jotta nähtäisiin rahoitusalan oma näkemys asian merkittävyydestä. Tutkimusmenetelminä toimivat haastattelut sekä numeerinen analyysi hypoteettisella portfoliolla. Kaupat tähän vastapuoliriski portfolioon on luotu 14 vuoden ajalle ja se sisältää ainoastaan valuuttajohdannaisia viidessä eri valuutassa. Riski lasketaan markkina-arvo menetelmällä, joista lasketaan VaR-mallilla tulevaisuuden riski nettoutuksen kera. Portfolion rakennetta muutetaan simuloinneissa, jotta nähtäisiin vaikutus tulevaisuuden riskeille, joita käytetään edustamaan pääomavaateen määrää ja sen vaihtelua yli ajan. Portfolioiden riskejä lasketaan myös rasituskokeiden avulla, jotta tuloksista saataisiin mahdollisimman todenmukaisia. Analyyttinen osuus tutkimuksesta näyttää sen, että tämän kaltainen optimointi on suuresti riippuvainen alkuperäisestä portfoliosta, jonka määrittää yleisesti rahoitusyhtiön myyntistrategia. Yleisesti ottaen pääomavaateen varianssin muutos voi simuloinneissa olla melko suurta, varsinkin jos mukaan huomioidaan rasitus testit, puuttuvat tuotteet sekä muut pääomavaateen laskentaan huomioitavat seikat. Haastatteluissa saatiin selville millainen optimointi voisi olla mahdollista todellisuudessa. Huomattiin myös että tämän kaltainen ajattelumalli on jo huomattu alalla ennestään. Jon Gregory jopa mainitsi, että jotkin rahoitusyhtiöt ovat enemmän kiinnostuneita muutosten pienentämisestä kuin itse pääomavaateen suuruudesta. Näyttääkin siltä, että tämän aihepiiri vaatisi entistä enemmän tutkimusta, sillä sitä ei ennestään vielä ole, ja rahoitusyhtiöt ovat jo alkaneet etsimään uusia keinoja selvitäkseen rahoitusalalla, joka on yhä entisestään kilpailullisempi.

Heat Demand Forecasting Models’ Development: Use of Data Mining Tools in SQL Server Analysis Services

This thesis introduces heat demand forecasting models which are generated by using data mining algorithms. The forecast spans one full day and this forecast can be used in regulating heat consumption of buildings. For training the data mining models, two years of heat consumption data from a case building and weather measurement data from Finnish Meteorological Institute are used. The thesis utilizes Microsoft SQL Server Analysis Services data mining tools in generating the data mining models and CRISP-DM process framework to implement the research. Results show that the built models can predict heat demand at best with mean average percentage errors of 3.8% for 24-h profile and 5.9% for full day. A deployment model for integrating the generated data mining models into an existing building energy management system is also discussed.

Variance reduction properties of dynamic hedging models - empirical evidence from BRICS countries

This Master’s Thesis analyses the effectiveness of different hedging models on BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries. Hedging performance is examined by comparing two different dynamic hedging models to conventional OLS regression based model. The dynamic hedging models being employed are Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH(1,1) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH(1,1) with Student’s t-distribution. In order to capture the period of both Great Moderation and the latest financial crisis, the sample period extends from 2003 to 2014. To determine whether dynamic models outperform the conventional one, the reduction of portfolio variance for in-sample data with contemporaneous hedge ratios is first determined and then the holding period of the portfolios is extended to one and two days. In addition, the accuracy of hedge ratio forecasts is examined on the basis of out-of-sample variance reduction. The results are mixed and suggest that dynamic hedging models may not provide enough benefits to justify harder estimation and daily portfolio adjustment. In this sense, the results are consistent with the existing literature.

Resolución No. 076. Por medio de la cual se dejan sin efecto las renovaciones de unas matriculas mercantiles por error operativo

Servicios registrales

Calculation of nondifferential properties for atomic ground states /

A new method for sampling the exact (within the nodal error) ground state distribution and nondiflPerential properties of multielectron systems is developed and applied to firstrow atoms. Calculated properties are the distribution moments and the electronic density at the nucleus (the 6 operator). For this purpose, new simple trial functions are developed and optimized. First, using Hydrogen as a test case, we demonstrate the accuracy of our algorithm and its sensitivity to error in the trial function. Applications to first row atoms are then described. We obtain results which are more satisfactory than the ones obtained previously using Monte Carlo methods, despite the relative crudeness of our trial functions. Also, a comparison is made with results of highly accurate post-Hartree Fock calculations, thereby illuminating the nodal error in our estimates. Taking into account the CPU time spent, our results, particularly for the 8 operator, have a relatively large variance. Several ways of improving the eflSciency together with some extensions of the algorithm are suggested.

Cortical and autonomic modulation of attentional control /

Whereas the role of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) in cognitive control has received considerable attention, much less work has been done on the role of the ACC in autonomic regulation. Its connections through the vagus nerve to the sinoatrial node of the heart are thought to exert modulatory control over cardiovascular arousal. Therefore, ACC is not only responsible for the implementation of cognitive control, but also for the dynamic regulation of cardiovascular activity that characterizes healthy heart rate and adaptive behaviour. However, cognitive control and autonomic regulation are rarely examined together. Moreover, those studies that have examined the role of phasic vagal cardiac control in conjunction with cognitive performance have produced mixed results, finding relations for specific age groups and types of tasks but not consistently. So, while autonomic regulatory control appears to support effective cognitive performance under some conditions, it is not presently clear just what factors contribute to these relations. The goal of the present study was, therefore, to examine the relations between autonomic arousal, neural responsivity, and cognitive performance in the context of a task that required ACC support. Participants completed a primary inhibitory control task with a working memory load embedded. Pre-test cardiovascular measures were obtained, and ontask ERPs associated with response control (N2/P3) and error-related processes (ERN/Pe) were analyzed. Results indicated that response inhibition was unrelated to phasic vagal cardiac control, as indexed by respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA). However, higher resting RSA was associated with larger ERN ampUtude for the highest working memory load condition. This finding suggests that those individuals with greater autonomic regulatory control exhibited more robust ACC error-related responses on the most challenging task condition. On the other hand, exploratory analyses with rate pressure product (RPP), a measure of sympathetic arousal, indicated that higher pre-test RPP (i.e., more sympathetic influence) was associated with more errors on "catch" NoGo trials, i.e., NoGo trials that simultaneously followed other NoGo trials, and consequently, reqviired enhanced response control. Higher pre-test RPP was also associated with smaller amplitude ERNs for all three working memory loads and smaller ampUtude P3s for the low and medium working memory load conditions. Thus, higher pretest sympathetic arousal was associated with poorer performance on more demanding "catch" NoGo trials and less robust ACC-related electrocortical responses. The findings firom the present study highlight tiie interdependence of electrocortical and cardiovascular processes. While higher pre-test parasympathetic control seemed to relate to more robust ACC error-related responses, higher pre-test sympathetic arousal resulted in poorer inhibitory control performance and smaller ACC-generated electrocortical responses. Furthermore, these results provide a base from which to explore the relation between ACC and neuro/cardiac responses in older adults who may display greater variance due to the vulnerabihty of these systems to the normal aging process.

Autonomic prediction of error-related ERP components in perceptual and conceptual tasks in older and younger adults

In studies of cognitive processing, the allocation of attention has been consistently linked to subtle, phasic adjustments in autonomic control. Both autonomic control of heart rate and control of the allocation of attention are known to decline with age. It is not known, however, whether characteristic individual differences in autonomic control and the ability to control attention are closely linked. To test this, a measure of parasympathetic function, vagal tone (VT) was computed from cardiac recordings from older and younger adults taken before and during performance of two attentiondemanding tasks - the Eriksen visual flanker task and the source memory task. Both tasks elicited event-related potentials (ERPs) that accompany errors, i.e., error-related negativities (ERNs) and error positivities (Pe's). The ERN is a negative deflection in the ERP signal, time-locked to responses made on incorrect trials, likely generated in the anterior cingulate. It is followed immediately by the Pe, a broad, positive deflection which may reflect conscious awareness of having committed an error. Age-attenuation ofERN amplitude has previously been found in paradigms with simple stimulus-response mappings, such as the flanker task, but has rarely been examined in more complex, conceptual tasks. Until now, there have been no reports of its being investigated in a source monitoring task. Age-attenuation of the ERN component was observed in both tasks. Results also indicated that the ERNs generated in these two tasks were generally comparable for young adults. For older adults, however, the ERN from the source monitoring task was not only shallower, but incorporated more frontal processing, apparently reflecting task demands. The error positivities elicited by 3 the two tasks were not comparable, however, and age-attenuation of the Pe was seen only in the more perceptual flanker task. For younger adults, it was Pe scalp topography that seemed to reflect task demands, being maximal over central parietal areas in the flanker task, but over very frontal areas in the source monitoring task. With respect to vagal tone, in the flanker task, neither the number of errors nor ERP amplitudes were predicted by baseline or on-task vagal tone measures. However, in the more difficult source memory task, lower VT was marginally associated with greater numbers of source memory errors in the older group. Thus, for older adults, relatively low levels of parasympathetic control over cardiac response coincided with poorer source memory discrimination. In both groups, lower levels of baseline VT were associated with larger amplitude ERNs, and smaller amplitude Pe's. Thus, low VT was associated in a conceptual task with a greater "emergency response" to errors, and at the same time, reduced awareness of having made them. The efficiency of an individual's complex cognitive processing was therefore associated with the flexibility of parasympathetic control of heart rate, in response to a cognitively challenging task.

Optimization of the valence energy variance of the CuH molecule

We developed the concept of split-'t to deal with the large molecules (in terms of the number of electrons and nuclear charge Z). This naturally leads to partitioning the local energy into components due to each electron shell. The minimization of the variation of the valence shell local energy is used to optimize a simple two parameter CuH wave function. Molecular properties (spectroscopic constants and the dipole moment) are calculated for the optimized and nearly optimized wave functions using the Variational Quantum Monte Carlo method. Our best results are comparable to those from the single and double configuration interaction (SDCI) method.

Developmental and individual differences in novelty and error detection in 10-year-old children and young adults /

Event-related potentials were recorded from 10-year-old children and young adults in order to examine the developmental dififerences in two frontal lobe functions: detection of novel stimuli during an auditory novelty oddball task, and error detection during a visual flanker task. All participants showed a parietally-maximal P3 in response to auditory stimuli. In children, novel stimuli generated higher P3 amplitudes at the frontal site compared with target stimuli, whereas target stimuli generated higher P3 amplitudes at the parietal site compared with novel stimuli. Adults, however, had higher P3 amplitude to novel tones compared with target tones at each site. Children also had greater P3 amplitude at more parietal sites than adults during the novelty oddball and flanker tasks. Furthermore, children and adults did not show a significant reduction in P3 amplitude from the first to second novel stimulus presentation. No age differences were found with respect to P3 latency to novel and target stimuli. These findings suggest that the detection of novel and target stimuli is mature in 10-year-olds. Error trials typically elicit a negative ERP deflection (the ERN) with a frontal-central scalp distribution that may reflect response monitoring. There is also evidence of a positive ERP peak (the Pe) with a posterior scalp distribution which may reflect subjective recognition of a response. Both children and adults showed an ERN and Pe maximal at frontal-central sites. Children committed more errors, had smaller ERN across sites, and had a larger Pe at the parietal site than adults. This suggests that response monitoring is still immature in 10-year-olds whereas recognition of and emotional responses to errors may be similar in children and adults.