A review of forecast error covariance statistics in atmospheric variational data assimilation. I: Characteristics and measurements of forecast error covariances

Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling

The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model (HadCM3) using a Linear Inverse Modelling (LIM) approach. It is found that the evolution of temperature and salinity in the Atlantic, and the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), can be effectively described by a linear dynamical system forced by white noise. The forecasts produced using this linear model are more skillful than other reference forecasts for several decades. Furthermore, significant non-normal amplification is found under several different norms. The regions from which this growth occurs are found to be fairly shallow and located in the far North Atlantic. Initially, anomalies in the Nordic Seas impact the MOC, and the anomalies then grow to fill the entire Atlantic basin, especially at depth, over one to three decades. It is found that the structure of the optimal initial condition for amplification is sensitive to the norm employed, but the initial growth seems to be dominated by MOC-related basin scale changes, irrespective of the choice of norm. The consistent identification of the far North Atlantic as the most sensitive region for small perturbations suggests that additional observations in this region would be optimal for constraining decadal climate predictions.

Cue combination for 3D location judgements

Cue combination rules have often been applied to the perception of surface shape but not to judgements of object location. Here, we used immersive virtual reality to explore the relationship between different cues to distance. Participants viewed a virtual scene and judged the change in distance of an object presented in two intervals, where the scene changed in size between intervals (by a factor of between 0.25 and 4). We measured thresholds for detecting a change in object distance when there were only 'physical' (stereo and motion parallax) or 'texture-based' cues (independent of the scale of the scene) and used these to predict biases in a distance matching task. Under a range of conditions, in which the viewing distance and position of the tarte relative to other objects was varied, the ration of 'physical' to 'texture-based' thresholds was a good predictor of biases in the distance matching task. The cue combination approach, which successfully accounts for our data, relies on quite different principles from those underlying geometric reconstruction.

Ex Vivo Construction of an Artificial Ocular Surface by Combination of Corneal Limbal Epithelial Cells and a Compressed Collagen Scaffold Containing Keratocytes

We have investigated the use of a laminin coated compressed collagen gel containing corneal fibroblasts (keratocytes) as a novel scaffold to support the growth of corneal limbal epithelial stem cells. The growth of limbal epithelial cells was compared between compressed collagen gel and a clinically proven conventional substrate, denuded amniotic membrane. Following compression of the collagen gel, encapsulated keratocytes remained viable and scanning electron microscopy showed that fibres within the compressed gel were dense, homogeneous and similar in structure to those within denuded amniotic membrane. Limbal epithelial cells were successfully expanded upon the compressed collagen resulting in stratified layers of cells containing desmosome and hemidesmosome structures. The resulting corneal constructs of both the groups shared a high degree of transparency, cell morphology and cell stratification. Similar protein expression profiles for cytokeratin 3 and cytokeratin 14 and no significant difference in cytokeratin 12 mRNA expression levels by real time PCR were also observed. This study provides the first line of evidence that a laminin coated compressed collagen gel containing keratocytes can adequately support limbal epithelial cell expansion, stratification and differentiation to a degree that is comparable to the leading conventional scaffold, denuded amniotic membrane.

Combination therapy: opportunities and challenges for polymer-drug conjugates as anticancer nanomedicines.

The discovery of new molecular targets and the subsequent development of novel anticancer agents are opening new possibilities for drug combination therapy as anticancer treatment. Polymer-drug conjugates are well established for the delivery of a single therapeutic agent, but only in very recent years their use has been extended to the delivery of multi-agent therapy. These early studies revealed the therapeutic potential of this application but raised new challenges (namely, drug loading and drugs ratio, characterisation, and development of suitable carriers) that need to be addressed for a successful optimisation of the system towards clinical applications.

Polymer-drug conjugates for combination anticancer therapy: investigating the mechanism of action.

We developed a family of polymer-drug conjugates carrying the combination of the anticancer agent epirubicin (EPI) and nitric oxide (NO). EPI-PEG-(NO)8, carrying the highest content of NO, displayed greater activity in Caco-2 cells while it decreased toxicity against endothelium cells and cardiomyocytes with respect to free EPI. FACS and confocal microscopy confirmed conjugates internalization. Light scattering showed formation of micelle whose size correlated with internalization rate. EPI-PEG-(NO)8 showed increased bioavailability in mice compared to free EPI.

A singular vector perspective of 4D-Var: Filtering and interpolation

Four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) combines the information from a time sequence of observations with the model dynamics and a background state to produce an analysis. In this paper, a new mathematical insight into the behaviour of 4D-Var is gained from an extension of concepts that are used to assess the qualitative information content of observations in satellite retrievals. It is shown that the 4D-Var analysis increments can be written as a linear combination of the singular vectors of a matrix which is a function of both the observational and the forecast model systems. This formulation is used to consider the filtering and interpolating aspects of 4D-Var using idealized case-studies based on a simple model of baroclinic instability. The results of the 4D-Var case-studies exhibit the reconstruction of the state in unobserved regions as a consequence of the interpolation of observations through time. The results also exhibit the filtering of components with small spatial scales that correspond to noise, and the filtering of structures in unobserved regions. The singular vector perspective gives a very clear view of this filtering and interpolating by the 4D-Var algorithm and shows that the appropriate specification of the a priori statistics is vital to extract the largest possible amount of useful information from the observations. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility Of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Parana river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.