Robust evaluation of fixed-event forecast rationality

In this paper we introduce a new testing procedure for evaluating the rationality of fixed-event forecasts based on a pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. The procedure is designed to be robust to departures in the normality assumption. A model is introduced to show that such departures are likely when forecasters experience a credibility loss when they make large changes to their forecasts. The test is illustrated using monthly fixed-event forecasts produced by four UK institutions. Use of the robust test leads to the conclusion that certain forecasts are rational while use of the Gaussian-based test implies that certain forecasts are irrational. The difference in the results is due to the nature of the underlying data. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Individual assets, market structure and the drivers of return

Much UK research and market practice on portfolio strategy and performance benchmarking relies on a sector‐geography subdivision of properties. Prior tests of the appropriateness of such divisions have generally relied on aggregated or hypothetical return data. However, the results found in aggregate may not hold when individual buildings are considered. This paper makes use of a dataset of individual UK property returns. A series of multivariate exploratory statistical techniques are utilised to test whether the return behaviour of individual properties conforms to their a priori grouping. The results suggest strongly that neither standard sector nor regional classifications provide a clear demarcation of individual building performance. This has important implications for both portfolio strategy and performance measurement and benchmarking. However, there do appear to be size and yield effects that help explain return behaviour at the property level.

The viability of sustained growth by India’s MNEs: India’s dual economy and constraints from location assets

This paper considers the longer-term viability of the internationalization and success of Indian multinational enterprises (MNEs). We apply the ‘dual economy’ concept (Lewis, Manch Sch 22(2):139–191, 1954) to reconcile the contradictions of the typical emerging economy, where a ‘modern’ knowledge-intensive economy exists alongside a ‘traditional’ resource-intensive economy. Each type of economy generates firms with different types of ownership advantages, and hence different types of MNEs and internationalisation patterns. We also highlight the vulnerabilities of a growth-by-acquisitions approach. The potential for Indian MNEs to grow requires an understanding of India’s dual economy and the constraints from the home country’s location advantages, particularly those in its knowledge infrastructure.

Low-frequency volatility of real estate securities in relation to macroeconomic risk

Real estate securities have a number of distinct characteristics that differentiate them from stocks generally. Key amongst them is that under-pinning the firms are both real as well as investment assets. The connections between the underlying macro-economy and listed real estate firms is therefore clearly demonstrated and of heightened importance. To consider the linkages with the underlying macro-economic fundamentals we extract the ‘low-frequency’ volatility component from aggregate volatility shocks in 11 international markets over the 1990-2014 period. This is achieved using Engle and Rangel’s (2008) Spline-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (Spline-GARCH) model. The estimated low-frequency volatility is then examined together with low-frequency macro data in a fixed-effect pooled regression framework. The analysis reveals that the low-frequency volatility of real estate securities has strong and positive association with most of the macroeconomic risk proxies examined. These include interest rates, inflation, GDP and foreign exchange rates.

Do laws influence the cost of real estate brokerage services? A state fixed effects approach

A FTC-DOJ study argues that state laws and regulations may inhibit the unbundling of real estate brokerage services in response to new technology. Our data show that 18 states have changed laws in ways that promote unbundling since 2000. We model brokerage costs as measured by number of agents in a state-level annual panel vector autoregressive framework, a novel way of analyzing wasteful competition. Our findings support a positive relationship between brokerage costs and lagged house price and transactions. We find that change in full-service brokers responds negatively (by well over two percentage points per year) to legal changes facilitating unbundling

Using proxies to calculate the carbon impact of investment into electricity network assets

Replacement and upgrading of assets in the electricity network requires financial investment for the distribution and transmission utilities. The replacement and upgrading of network assets also represents an emissions impact due to the carbon embodied in the materials used to manufacture network assets. This paper uses investment and asset data for the GB system for 2015-2023 to assess the suitability of using a proxy with peak demand data and network investment data to calculate the carbon impacts of network investments. The proxies are calculated on a regional basis and applied to calculate the embodied carbon associated with current network assets by DNO region. The proxies are also applied to peak demand data across the 2015-2023 period to estimate the expected levels of embodied carbon that will be associated with network investment during this period. The suitability of these proxies in different contexts are then discussed, along with initial scenario analysis to calculate the impact of avoiding or deferring network investments through distributed generation projects. The proxies were found to be effective in estimating the total embodied carbon of electricity system investment in order to compare investment strategies in different regions of the GB network.

The problem of two fixed centers: bifurcation diagram for positive energies

We give a comprehensive analysis of the Euler-Jacobi problem of motion in the field of two fixed centers with arbitrary relative strength and for positive values of the energy. These systems represent nontrivial examples of integrable dynamics and are analysed from the point of view of the energy-momentum mapping from the phase space to the space of the integration constants. In this setting, we describe the structure of the scattering trajectories in phase space and derive an explicit description of the bifurcation diagram, i.e., the set of critical value of the energy-momentum map.

MOLES3: implementing an ISO standards driven data catalogue

ISO19156 Observations and Measurements (O&M) provides a standardised framework for organising information about the collection of information about the environment. Here we describe the implementation of a specialisation of O&M for environmental data, the Metadata Objects for Linking Environmental Sciences (MOLES3). MOLES3 provides support for organising information about data, and for user navigation around data holdings. The implementation described here, “CEDA-MOLES”, also supports data management functions for the Centre for Environmental Data Archival, CEDA. The previous iteration of MOLES (MOLES2) saw active use over five years, being replaced by CEDA-MOLES in late 2014. During that period important lessons were learnt both about the information needed, as well as how to design and maintain the necessary information systems. In this paper we review the problems encountered in MOLES2; how and why CEDA-MOLES was developed and engineered; the migration of information holdings from MOLES2 to CEDA-MOLES; and, finally, provide an early assessment of MOLES3 (as implemented in CEDA-MOLES) and its limitations. Key drivers for the MOLES3 development included the necessity for improved data provenance, for further structured information to support ISO19115 discovery metadata export (for EU INSPIRE compliance), and to provide appropriate fixed landing pages for Digital Object Identifiers (DOIs) in the presence of evolving datasets. Key lessons learned included the importance of minimising information structure in free text fields, and the necessity to support as much agility in the information infrastructure as possible without compromising on maintainability both by those using the systems internally and externally (e.g. citing in to the information infrastructure), and those responsible for the systems themselves. The migration itself needed to ensure continuity of service and traceability of archived assets.

Myeloperoxidase activity is increased in gingival crevicular fluid and whole saliva after fixed orthodontic appliance activation

Introduction: Orthodontic tooth movement uses mechanical forces that result in inflammation in the first days. Myeloperoxidase (MPO) is an enzyme found in polymorphonuclear neutrophil (PMN) granules, and it is used to estimate the number of PMN granules in tissues. So far, MPO has not been used to study the inflammatory alterations after the application of orthodontic tooth movement forces. The aim of this study was to determine MPO activity in the gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) and saliva (whole stimulated saliva) of orthodontic patients at different time points after fixed appliance activation. Methods: MPO was determined in the GCF and collected by means of periopaper from the saliva of 14 patients with orthodontic fixed appliances. GCF and saliva samples were collected at baseline, 2 hours, and 7 and 14 days after application of the orthodontic force. Results: Mean MPO activity was increased in both the GCF and saliva of orthodontic patients at 2 hours after appliance activation (P<0.02 for all comparisons). At 2 hours, PMN infiltration into the periodontal ligament from the orthodontic force probably results in the increased MPO level observed at this time point. Conclusions: MPO might be a good marker to assess inflammation in orthodontic movement; it deserves further studies in orthodontic therapy. (Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop 2010;138:613-6)

Influence of fixed electric charges on potential profile across the squid axon membrane

The potential profile for a model of squid axon membrane has been determined for two physiological states: resting and action states. The non-linear Poisson-Boltzmann equation has been solved by considering the volumetric charge densities due to charges dissolved in an electrolytic solution and fixed on both glycocalyx and cytoplasmatic proteins. Results showing the features of the potential profile along the outer electrolytic region are similar for both resting and action states. However, the potential fall along glycocalyx at action state is lower than at resting. A small variation in the Na+ concentration drastically affects the surface membrane potentials and vice versa. We conclude that effects on the potential profile due to surface lipidic bilayer charge and contiguous electric double layers are more relevant than those provoked by fixed charges distributed along the cell cytoplasm. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tightened Lieb-Oxford Bound for Systems of Fixed Particle Number

The Lieb-Oxford bound is a constraint upon approximate exchange-correlation functionals. We explore a nonempirical tightening of that bound in both universal and electron number-dependent form. The test functional is PBE. Regarding both atomization energies (slightly worsened) and bond lengths (slightly improved), we find the PBE functional to be remarkably insensitive to the value of the Lieb-Oxford bound. This both rationalizes the use of the original Lieb-Oxford constant in PBE and suggests that enhancement factors more sensitive to sharpened constraints await discovery.

ABELIANIZED OBSTRUCTION FOR FIXED POINTS OF FIBER-PRESERVING MAPS OF SURFACE BUNDLES

Let f: M -> M be a fiber-preserving map where S -> M -> B is a bundle and S is a closed surface. We study the abelianized obstruction, which is a cohomology class in dimension 2, to deform f to a fixed point free map by a fiber-preserving homotopy. The vanishing of this obstruction is only a necessary condition in order to have such deformation, but in some cases it is sufficient. We describe this obstruction and we prove that the vanishing of this class is equivalent to the existence of solution of a system of equations over a certain group ring with coefficients given by Fox derivatives.

NIELSEN COINCIDENCE THEORY OF FIBRE-PRESERVING MAPS AND DOLD`S FIXED POINT INDEX

Let M -> B, N -> B be fibrations and f(1), f(2): M -> N be a pair of fibre-preserving maps. Using normal bordism techniques we define an invariant which is an obstruction to deforming the pair f(1), f(2) over B to a coincidence free pair of maps. In the special case where the two fibrations axe the same and one of the maps is the identity, a weak version of our omega-invariant turns out to equal Dold`s fixed point index of fibre-preserving maps. The concepts of Reidemeister classes and Nielsen coincidence classes over B are developed. As an illustration we compute e.g. the minimal number of coincidence components for all homotopy classes of maps between S(1)-bundles over S(1) as well as their Nielsen and Reidemeister numbers.

Fixed points on Klein bottle fiber bundles over the circle

The main purpose of this work is to study fixed points of fiber-preserving maps over the circle S(1) for spaces which are fiber bundles over S(1) and the fiber is the Klein bottle K. We classify all such maps which can be deformed fiberwise to a fixed point free map. The similar problem for torus fiber bundles over S(1) has been solved recently.