Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Diagnostic leaf to evaluate the nutritional status of Jatropha

ABSTRACT The analytical determination of nutrient levels in recently mature leaves in order to diagnose nutritional status is based on the fact that leaves are metabolically active and more sensitive to variation in nutrients of the soil. In most of cases, there is a direct well known between foliar content and the development and yield of the plant. However, for a more accurate interpretation, it is essential to establish the index leaf. There are few published studies about Jatropha with contrasting results. In order to establish the index leaf, in adult plants, the macronutrient levels were evaluated in samples collected in experimental plots, in which doses of nitrogen and phosphorus were applied, in two parts of the floral branches (in the top and in the middle thirds); and in three positions of leaves of the floral branch (between the 1st and 3rd, 6th and 8th, and 13th and 15th leaves below the inflorescence). The location of the leaf on the plant significantly affects nutrient contents. Nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and sulfur tend to have higher concentration in young tissues. Calcium and magnesium showed higher levels in the basal leaves of floral branches. Samples collected in the top third of plants (between the 6th and 15th leaves of the floral branch) are more sensitive to variations of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization. Therefore, we indicate the 6th to 15th leaves of the top third plants as index leaves estimate nutritional status of Jatropha.

How logrolling can explain the failure of the government coalition in Brazil

This article presents an analysis of the behavior of federal representatives in the Brazilian House of Representatives between 1995 and 1998, when a series of constitutional amendments were presented by the president to be voted on by Congress. The objective is to show that the lack of a stable government coalition resulted in costs to society that were not anticipated by the government. The study argues that a logroll - a trade of votes - was the strategy used by the government in order to guarantee the number of votes necessary to approve the amendments. This strategy created a vicious system in which representatives would only vote with the government if they had benefits in return.

Índice de status sócio-econômico da família da mulher grávida que freqüenta o Centro de Saúde Geraldo de Paula Souza da Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo

A partir de uma modificação do esquema teórico de Max Weber, aplicado ao estudo do fenômeno da estratificação social, procurou-se a base conceptual para a elaboração de um índice de status sócio-econômico familiar. Selecionados os indicadores ocupação, renda e educação, consagrados pela literatura sociológica, os pesos respectivos foram obtidos através de um critério estatístico (correlação de cada variável com o "score" total). Cada status familiar, representado por um "score" total, encontra-se referido a um estrato no sistema de estratificação considerado.

Nutritional status of children, inmates of a small institution for homeless children in the capital of the State of S. Paulo, Brazil

Nutritional surveys (food consumption, clinical and biochemichal) were conducted in a small institution for homeless children. Results showed that only 30% of the children presented adequate calorie intake. Most of the children presented adequate protein intake, but almost half consumed less than 2/3 of the calcium RDA considered necessary. Food handling, processing, and distribution also proved inadequate and wastage, high. Skinfold measurement showed up one case of obesity. Furthermore, most of the children presented clinical signs of vitamin A deficiency, mostly skin lesions; while about half presented clinical signs of riboflavin deficiency. Biochemical data showed that 63.6% had deficient plasma levels of vitamin A, none showed abnormal results for riboflavin excretion, four showed packed blood cell volume below normal, and all had normal hemoglobin levels. Stool examinations revealed a high rate of pathogenic protozoa (Hymenolepis nana), in fact, one of the highest in Brazilian literature.

Multi-attribute classification of housing conservation status in urban regeneration actions

Urban regeneration is more and more a “universal issue” and a crucial factor in the new trends of urban planning. It is no longer only an area of study and research; it became part of new urban and housing policies. Urban regeneration involves complex decisions as a consequence of the multiple dimensions of the problems that include special technical requirements, safety concerns, socio-economic, environmental, aesthetic, and political impacts, among others. This multi-dimensional nature of urban regeneration projects and their large capital investments justify the development and use of state-of-the-art decision support methodologies to assist decision makers. This research focuses on the development of a multi-attribute approach for the evaluation of building conservation status in urban regeneration projects, thus supporting decision makers in their analysis of the problem and in the definition of strategies and priorities of intervention. The methods presented can be embedded into a Geographical Information System for visualization of results. A real-world case study was used to test the methodology, whose results are also presented.

Nutritional status of children of urban low-income communities, Brazil (1986)

During the second half of 1986 the health and nutritional status of 254 children aged up to six years was studied, as well as the socio-economic situation of their parents in two favelas (shantytowns) in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. The nutritional status of the children was characterized by stunting (Z-score: 20.1% < -2) but not by wasting (Z-score: 3.7% < -2). Consideration was also given to how far stunting was caused by high morbidity such as acute respiratory infections (point prevalence: 38.5%), diarrheal diseases (point prevalence: 11.5%) and parasitosis (point prevalence: 70.3%). Furthermore, anemia (point prevalence: 29.7%) appeared as another health problem. The most important determinant of anthropometric indices turned out to be the mother's schooling. From the present data it can be hypothesized that the nutritional status of the children was limited less by the lack of food than by their poor health status.

Geographical stratification by socio-economic status: methodology from a household survey with elderly people in S. Paulo, Brazil

Considering that in most developing countries there are still no comprehensive lists of addresses for a given geographical area, there has always been a problem in drawing samples from the community, ensuring randomisation in the selection of the subjects. This article discusses the geographical stratification by socio-economic status used to draw a multistage random sample from a community-based elderly population living in a city like S. Paulo - Brazil. Particular attention is given to the fact that the proportion of elderly people in the total population of a certain area appeared to be a good discriminatory variable for such stratification. The validity of the stratification method is analysed in the light of the socio-economic results obtained in the survey.

Health related quality of life in patients with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing cardiac resynchronization: type of therapeutic response

The benefits of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in the health-related quality of life (HRQL) are largely demonstrated in selected patients with severe congestive heart failure (CHF). However, the differences between responders and non-responders, with regard to the effect of CRT in the various dimensions that constitute HRQL are still a matter of discussion. Objective: To evaluate the impact of CRT on the HRQL of patients with CHF refractory to optimal pharmacological therapy, within 6 months after CRT. Methods: 43 patients, submitted to successful implantation of CRT, were evaluated in hospital just before intervention and in the outpatient clinic within 6 months after CRT. HRQL was analyzed based on the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). Patients were classified as super-responders (ejection fraction of left ventricle - LVEF - ≥45% post-CRT), n=15, responders (sustained improvement in functional class and LVEF increased by 15%), n=19, and non-responders (no clinical or LVEF improvement), n=9. Results: In the group of super-responders, CRT was associated with an improvement in HRQL for the various fields and sums assessed (ρ<0.05); in responders, CRT has been associated with an improvement of HRQL in the various fields and sums, except in the self-efficacy dimension (ρ<0.05); in non-responders, CRT was not associated with improvement of HRQL. Conclusion: In a population with severe CHF undergoing CRT, the patients with clinical and echocardiographic positive response, obtained a favorable impact in all dimensions of HRQL, while the group without response to CRT showed no improvement. These data reinforces the importance of HRQL as a multidimensional tool for assessment of benefits in clinical practice.

Evaluating the quality of life in patients with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing cardiac resynchronization regarding the type of therapeutic response

The benefits of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in the quality of life have been largely demonstrated in selected patients with severe congestive heart failure (CHF). However, the differences between responders and non-responders, with regard to the effect of CRT in the various dimensions of quality of life is still a matter of discussion. Objective: to evaluate the impact of CRT on the quality of life of patients with CHF refractory to optimal pharmacological therapy, within 6 months after CRT.

Relation of happiness, hope and affection with quality of life in patients with heart failure

Introduction: Meeting the actual role of positive psychology, begins to be recognized the relation of positive variables with health. Objective: To know the relation of happiness, hope and affection with quality of life in individuals with heart failure. Population and Methodology: 128 individuals with heart failure, 98 men and 30 women, 61.9±12,1 years of age, 6,6±3,9 years in school and 74,2% retired because of this disease. 56,3% were in Class III of New York Heart Association, with poor left ventricular ejection fraction (25,3±6,2%). The clinical history was of 9,4±8,5 years for this heart disease and had at least one hospitalization due to heart failure with 51,6% having ischemic heart disease.

Happiness, hope and affection as predictors of quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure at 3 month follow up

Introduction: Meeting the actual role of positive psychology, begins to be recognized the contribution of positive variables in health outcomes. Objective: To know the contribution of happiness, hope and affection individually and as a whole in the quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure. Population and Methodology: 128 individuals with heart failure, 98 men and 30 women, 61.9±12,1 years of age, 6,6±3,9 years of school and 74,2% retired because of this disease. 56,3% were in Class III of New York Heart Association, with poor left ventricular ejection fraction (25,3±6,2%). The clinical history was of 9,4±8,5 years for this heart disease and had at least one hospitalization due to heart failure with 51,6% having ischemic heart disease.

Poverty levels and children's health status: study of risk factors in an urban population of low socioeconomic level

To test the hypothesis that the low socioeconomic population living is shanty towns in Porto Alegre presents different levels of poverty which are reflected on its health status, a cross-sectional study was designed involving 477 families living in Vila Grande Cruzeiro, Porto Alegre, Brazil. The poverty level of the families was measured by using an instrument specifically designed for poor urban populations. Children from families living in extreme poverty (poorest quartile) were found to have higher infant mortality rate, lower birth weights, more hospitalizations, and higher malnutrition rates, in addition to belonging to more numerous families. Thus, the shanty town population of Porto Alegre is not homogeneous, and priority should be given to the more vulnerable subgroups.

Quality of life in dilated cardiomyopathy with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing devices implantation

Heart failure is the final stage of most of cardiac diseases. It is a complex syndrome in which the patients should have the following features: symptoms of heart failure, typically shortness of breath at rest or during exertion, and/or fatigue; signs of fluid retention such as pulmonary congestion or ankle swelling; and objective evidence of an abnormality of the structure or function of the heart at rest. This progressive syndrome as a high incidence and prevalence and poor prognosis: four-year mortality is around 50% with 40% of the patients admitted to hospital dying or readmitted within a year. With ageing, many patients will develop chronic heart failure, which, because of its symptoms, patient’s awareness of their risk of dying, and the effects of therapy, together with frequent hospitalizations, has considerable impact on patient’s health-related quality of life.

Influence of HIV positive status on sexual behavior among males

OBJECTIVE: To compare HIV seronegative (HIV-) and HIV seropositive (HIV+) males in terms of sexual behavior with female and male partners of different types. METHOD: Cross-sectional study. From August 1994 to February 1995, a sample of 236 respondents (150 HIV- and 86 HIV+) recruited from public health centers in the State of S. Paulo (Brazil), answered a questionnaire, including questions on demographic aspects, HIV and AIDS related knowledge, sexual orientation, use of alcohol and other drugs, sexual behavior with regular and casual female and male partners, and perceived risk of HIV infection. Sexual behavior with regular and casual female and male partners within the previous three months, was investigated. RESULTS: A lower proportion of HIV+ engaged in sexual contact with regular female partners (p < .01) and in vaginal intercourse with this type of partner (p < .01). A lower proportion of HIV+ engaged in overall sexual activity (p < .001) and reported lower frequency of penetrative sexual practices (p < .05). A high level of condom use with female and male partners was identified with no significant differences being found between the two serostatus groups. Some risky sexual behavior was identified, however, especially with regular partners, suggesting that some men were continuing to practice unsafe sex. CONCLUSIONS: The high level of condom use identified suggests that safer sex advice has been taken up. Condom use was not universal, however, and some men continue to place themselves at risk, especially with regular partners. Prevention programs should strive not only to encourage HIV- to practice safer sex, but also to encourage HIV+ to do so in order to prevent further transmission of the virus.