Can wavelets improve the representation of forecast error covariances in variational data assimilation?

Two wavelet-based control variable transform schemes are described and are used to model some important features of forecast error statistics for use in variational data assimilation. The first is a conventional wavelet scheme and the other is an approximation of it. Their ability to capture the position and scale-dependent aspects of covariance structures is tested in a two-dimensional latitude-height context. This is done by comparing the covariance structures implied by the wavelet schemes with those found from the explicit forecast error covariance matrix, and with a non-wavelet- based covariance scheme used currently in an operational assimilation scheme. Qualitatively, the wavelet-based schemes show potential at modeling forecast error statistics well without giving preference to either position or scale-dependent aspects. The degree of spectral representation can be controlled by changing the number of spectral bands in the schemes, and the least number of bands that achieves adequate results is found for the model domain used. Evidence is found of a trade-off between the localization of features in positional and spectral spaces when the number of bands is changed. By examining implied covariance diagnostics, the wavelet-based schemes are found, on the whole, to give results that are closer to diagnostics found from the explicit matrix than from the nonwavelet scheme. Even though the nature of the covariances has the right qualities in spectral space, variances are found to be too low at some wavenumbers and vertical correlation length scales are found to be too long at most scales. The wavelet schemes are found to be good at resolving variations in position and scale-dependent horizontal length scales, although the length scales reproduced are usually too short. The second of the wavelet-based schemes is often found to be better than the first in some important respects, but, unlike the first, it has no exact inverse transform.

Evaluation of the Met Office global forecast model using Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) data

Simulations of the top-of-atmosphere radiative-energy budget from the Met Office global numerical weather-prediction model are evaluated using new data from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instrument on board the Meteosat-8 satellite. Systematic discrepancies between the model simulations and GERB measurements greater than 20 Wm-2 in outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and greater than 60 Wm-2 in reflected short-wave radiation (RSR) are identified over the period April-September 2006 using 12 UTC data. Convective cloud over equatorial Africa is spatially less organized and less reflective than in the GERB data. This bias depends strongly on convective-cloud cover, which is highly sensitive to changes in the model convective parametrization. Underestimates in model OLR over the Gulf of Guinea coincide with unrealistic southerly cloud outflow from convective centres to the north. Large overestimates in model RSR over the subtropical ocean, greater than 50 Wm-2 at 12 UTC, are explained by unrealistic radiative properties of low-level cloud relating to overestimation of cloud liquid water compared with independent satellite measurements. The results of this analysis contribute to the development and improvement of parametrizations in the global forecast model.

A review of forecast error covariance statistics in atmospheric variational data assimilation. I: Characteristics and measurements of forecast error covariances

Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling

The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model (HadCM3) using a Linear Inverse Modelling (LIM) approach. It is found that the evolution of temperature and salinity in the Atlantic, and the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), can be effectively described by a linear dynamical system forced by white noise. The forecasts produced using this linear model are more skillful than other reference forecasts for several decades. Furthermore, significant non-normal amplification is found under several different norms. The regions from which this growth occurs are found to be fairly shallow and located in the far North Atlantic. Initially, anomalies in the Nordic Seas impact the MOC, and the anomalies then grow to fill the entire Atlantic basin, especially at depth, over one to three decades. It is found that the structure of the optimal initial condition for amplification is sensitive to the norm employed, but the initial growth seems to be dominated by MOC-related basin scale changes, irrespective of the choice of norm. The consistent identification of the far North Atlantic as the most sensitive region for small perturbations suggests that additional observations in this region would be optimal for constraining decadal climate predictions.

Cue combination for 3D location judgements

Cue combination rules have often been applied to the perception of surface shape but not to judgements of object location. Here, we used immersive virtual reality to explore the relationship between different cues to distance. Participants viewed a virtual scene and judged the change in distance of an object presented in two intervals, where the scene changed in size between intervals (by a factor of between 0.25 and 4). We measured thresholds for detecting a change in object distance when there were only 'physical' (stereo and motion parallax) or 'texture-based' cues (independent of the scale of the scene) and used these to predict biases in a distance matching task. Under a range of conditions, in which the viewing distance and position of the tarte relative to other objects was varied, the ration of 'physical' to 'texture-based' thresholds was a good predictor of biases in the distance matching task. The cue combination approach, which successfully accounts for our data, relies on quite different principles from those underlying geometric reconstruction.

Ex Vivo Construction of an Artificial Ocular Surface by Combination of Corneal Limbal Epithelial Cells and a Compressed Collagen Scaffold Containing Keratocytes

We have investigated the use of a laminin coated compressed collagen gel containing corneal fibroblasts (keratocytes) as a novel scaffold to support the growth of corneal limbal epithelial stem cells. The growth of limbal epithelial cells was compared between compressed collagen gel and a clinically proven conventional substrate, denuded amniotic membrane. Following compression of the collagen gel, encapsulated keratocytes remained viable and scanning electron microscopy showed that fibres within the compressed gel were dense, homogeneous and similar in structure to those within denuded amniotic membrane. Limbal epithelial cells were successfully expanded upon the compressed collagen resulting in stratified layers of cells containing desmosome and hemidesmosome structures. The resulting corneal constructs of both the groups shared a high degree of transparency, cell morphology and cell stratification. Similar protein expression profiles for cytokeratin 3 and cytokeratin 14 and no significant difference in cytokeratin 12 mRNA expression levels by real time PCR were also observed. This study provides the first line of evidence that a laminin coated compressed collagen gel containing keratocytes can adequately support limbal epithelial cell expansion, stratification and differentiation to a degree that is comparable to the leading conventional scaffold, denuded amniotic membrane.

Combination therapy: opportunities and challenges for polymer-drug conjugates as anticancer nanomedicines.

The discovery of new molecular targets and the subsequent development of novel anticancer agents are opening new possibilities for drug combination therapy as anticancer treatment. Polymer-drug conjugates are well established for the delivery of a single therapeutic agent, but only in very recent years their use has been extended to the delivery of multi-agent therapy. These early studies revealed the therapeutic potential of this application but raised new challenges (namely, drug loading and drugs ratio, characterisation, and development of suitable carriers) that need to be addressed for a successful optimisation of the system towards clinical applications.

Polymer-drug conjugates for combination anticancer therapy: investigating the mechanism of action.

We developed a family of polymer-drug conjugates carrying the combination of the anticancer agent epirubicin (EPI) and nitric oxide (NO). EPI-PEG-(NO)8, carrying the highest content of NO, displayed greater activity in Caco-2 cells while it decreased toxicity against endothelium cells and cardiomyocytes with respect to free EPI. FACS and confocal microscopy confirmed conjugates internalization. Light scattering showed formation of micelle whose size correlated with internalization rate. EPI-PEG-(NO)8 showed increased bioavailability in mice compared to free EPI.