Reflections on gains and losses: A 2x2x7 experiment

We test whether risk attitudes change when losses instead of gains areinvolved. The study of gain-loss asymmetries has been largely confinedto reflected choices, where all the money amounts of a positiveprospect are multiplied by minus one. We define the decomposition reflection = translation + probability switch, and experimentally findboth a translation effect (risk attraction becomes more frequent whengains are translated into losses) and a probability switch effect (riskattraction becomes more frequent when the probability of the best outcomedecreases). Surprisingly, the switch effect is somewhat stronger than thetranslation effect, negating a conventional reflection effect when onestarts with choices between gains with a low probability of the bestoutcome. We conclude by arguing that, while both the translation effectand the switch effect contradict the expected utility hypothesis, thetranslation effect implies a deeper violation of standard preference theory.

Intergenerational justice when future worlds are uncertain

Let there be a positive (exogenous) probability that, at each date, the human species will disappear.We postulate an Ethical Observer (EO) who maximizes intertemporal welfare under thisuncertainty, with expected-utility preferences. Various social welfare criteria entail alternativevon Neumann- Morgenstern utility functions for the EO: utilitarian, Rawlsian, and an extensionof the latter that corrects for the size of population. Our analysis covers, first, a cake-eating economy(without production), where the utilitarian and Rawlsian recommend the same allocation.Second, a productive economy with education and capital, where it turns out that the recommendationsof the two EOs are in general different. But when the utilitarian program diverges, thenwe prove it is optimal for the extended Rawlsian to ignore the uncertainty concerning the possibledisappearance of the human species in the future. We conclude by discussing the implicationsfor intergenerational welfare maximization in the presence of global warming.

Five new associations of parasitoids in potter wasps (Vespidae, Eumeninae)

Five new associations of parasitoids in potter wasps (Vespidae, Eumeninae). New associations of host and parasitoids involving potter wasps: Toxophora leucon and Pleurochrysis sp. were found parasitizing Cyphomenes anisitsii, Chrysis sp. (gr. intricans) was found parasitizing Minixi suffusum, Plega beardi was found parasitizing Montezumia pelagica sepulchralis and Macrosiagon sp. was found parasitizing Pachodynerus nasidens.

A dynamic analysis of human welfare in a warming planet

Climate science indicates that climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is thisconsistent with nondecreasing human welfare?Our welfare or utility index emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. Weconstruct and calibrate a multigenerational model with intertemporal links provided by education,physical capital, knowledge and the environment.We reject discounted utilitarianism and adopt, first, the Pure Sustainability Optimization (orIntergenerational Maximin) criterion, and, second, the Sustainable Growth Optimization criterion,that maximizes the utility of the first generation subject to a given future rate of growth. We applythese criteria to our calibrated model via a novel algorithm inspired by the turnpike property.The computed paths yield levels of utility higher than the level at reference year 2000 for allgenerations. They require the doubling of the fraction of labor resources devoted to the creation ofknowledge relative to the reference level, whereas the fractions of labor allocated to consumptionand leisure are similar to the reference ones. On the other hand, higher growth rates requiresubstantial increases in the fraction of labor devoted to education, together with moderate increasesin the fractions of labor devoted to knowledge and the investment in physical capital.

Mélanges sur l'HISTOIRE DU XVIIe SIECLE.

Contient : Notes pour l'histoire de Colbert, parmi lesquelles on remarque les pièces suivantes ; Tombe de Richard Colbert, dit l'Ecossais ; Lettre du sieur Quesnel à Baluze (26 mars s. d.) ; Copie d'une lettre de Mazarin à Le Tellier (Compiègne, 5 juin 1656) ; Lettre de Colbert à Le Tellier (8 août 1663) ; « Instructions de S. E. à exécuter par M. Jobart, en avril 1651 » ; Lettre de D. Jobart [à Mazarin] (Paris, 2 novembre 1650) ; Lettre du sieur Colbert... à son Eminence (9 avril 1655) ; impr. de 8 pages in-4° ; Lettre adressée à M. de Feret par le maire et les jurés de Bordeaux (5 avril 1592) ; Lettre de M. Forget au sieur Feret, agent du duc de Saxe-Weimar (s. d.) ; Lettre de M. de Charreard au même (Weimar, 16 mars 1662) ; Copie d'une lettre de Louis XIV à [Charles] duc de Lorraine (8 novembre 1661) ; « Epitaphium Caroli ducis Lotharingiae » ; Lettre de M. d'Erlach au sieur Feret (6 juillet s. d.) ; Lettre de M. de Charreard [au même] (Weimar, 5 février 1662) ; Lettre de « G. Gilhomo de Harstall » à M. Charreard (Altenburg, 25 janvier 1662) ; Lettre de M. de Bostel à M. de Saint-Marc ; Lettre de Charles de Lorraine, [duc de Guise,] à M. Brulart (s. d.) ; Lettre de Charles de Bourbon, évêque de Lectoure, à M. Lonsieux (7 avril 1592) ; « Coppie de la lettre du patriarche Cirille [de Constantinople] à la seigneurie et pasteurs de la ville et eglize de Genève, traduite d'Italien en Françoys. » ; Règlement pour la surintendante de la maison de la reine (14 mai 1661) ; Mémoire en faveur de l'établissement d'un parlement à Tours ; Lettre de C. Drelincourt à M. Dubordieu, de Montpellier (Paris, 10 février 1656) ; Trois lettres de M. de Charreard à M. Feret (14 juin-16 septembre 1663) ; Copie de lettres de Drelincourt à Balzac et à Feret, et de Balzac à Drelincourt (26 avril-16 octobre 1651) ; Copie, de la main de Baluze, et envoyée par lui à Madame de Maintenon, d'une lettre de [Constant] d'Aubigné à M. de Bonica (des prisons de Niort, 9 mai 1637), et copie de la lettre de Baluze accompagnant l'envoi ; Lettres adressées à Phélypeaux du Verger par divers personnages : ; Quatre lettres d'Henri de Bourbon [prince de Condé] (25 juin-15 octobre 1645) suivies de la copie de diverses lettres de Louis de Bourbon, comte de Soissons ; Huit lettres de Louis XIV (24 mars 1644-23 juillet 1647) ; Le Tellier (3 septembre 1646) ; [Pierre] Seguier (Paris, 21 décembre 1642) ; Le P. de Lingendes, S. J. (Paris, 12 février 1644) ; [Pierre] Séguier (Paris, 12 mai 1658) ; Trois lettres de Louis de Bourbon [prince de Condé] (13 novembre 1646-13 décembre 1647) ; Neuf lettres de Gaston [duc d'Orléans] (1er décembre 1645-20 mars 1648) ; Vingt-deux lettres de [Silvestre de Cruzy de] Marcillac, évêque de Mende, à Bernard de Saxe-Weimar (3 mai 1636-20 avril 1639)

Measuring risk aversion with lists: A new bias

Various experimental procedures aimed at measuring individual risk aversion involve alist of pairs of alternative prospects. We first study the widely used method by Holt andLaury (2002), for which we find that the removal of some items from the lists yields asystematic decrease in risk aversion. This bias is quite distinct from other confoundsthat have been previously observed in the use of the Holt and Laury method. It may berelated to empirical phenomena and theoretical developments where better prospectsincrease risk aversion. Nevertheless, we have also found that the more recent elicitationmethod due to Abdellaoui et al. (2011), also based on lists, does not display anystatistically significant bias when the corresponding items of the list are removed. Ourresults suggest that methods other than the popular Holt and Laury one may bepreferable for the measurement of risk aversion.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Breaking the panels: an application to the GDP per capita

This paper proposes a test statistic for the null hypothesis of panel stationarity that allows for the presence of multiple structural breaks. Two different speci¿cations are considered depending on the structural breaks affecting the individual effects and/or the time trend. The model is ¿exible enough to allow the number of breaks and their position to differ across individuals. The test is shown to have an exact limit distribution with a good ¿nite sample performance. Its application to a typical panel data set of real per capita GDP gives support to the trend stationarity of these series

Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : a univariate approach

In this paper we test for the hysteresis versus the natural rate hypothesis on the unemployment rates of the EU new members using unit root tests that account for the presence of level shifts. As a by product, the analysis proceeds to the estimation of a NAIRU measure from a univariate point of view. The paper also focuses on the precision of these NAIRU estimates studying the two sources of inaccuracy that derive from the break points estimation and the autoregressive parameters estimation. The results point to the existence of up to four structural breaks in the transition countries NAIRU that can be associated with institutional changes implementing market-oriented reforms. Moreover, the degree of persistence in unemployment varies dramatically among the individual countries depending on the stage reached in the transition process

Testing for hysteresis in unemployment in OECD countries: new evidence using stationarity panel tests with breaks

This paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 19 OECD countries covering the period 1956-2001. The tests exploit the cross-section variations of the series, and additionally, allow for a diferent number of endogenous breakpoints in the unemployment series. The critical values are simulated based on our specific panel sizes and time periods. The findings stress the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks in the series and give support to the natural-rate hypothesis of unemployment for the majority of the countries analyzed

Testing for multicointegration in panel data with common factors

The paper addresses the concept of multicointegration in panel data frame- work. The proposal builds upon the panel data cointegration procedures developed in Pedroni (2004), for which we compute the moments of the parametric statistics. When individuals are either cross-section independent or cross-section dependence can be re- moved by cross-section demeaning, our approach can be applied to the wider framework of mixed I(2) and I(1) stochastic processes analysis. The paper also deals with the issue of cross-section dependence using approximate common factor models. Finite sample performance is investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we illustrate the use of the procedure investigating inventories, sales and production relationship for a panel of US industries.

New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfilment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.

Were Spanish migrants attracted by industrial agglomerations?: an analysis for the interwar years in the light of the new economic geography

In this paper we examine whether access to markets had a significant influence onmigration choices of Spanish internal migrants in the inter-war years. We perform astructural contrast of a New Economic Geography model that focus on the forwardlinkage that links workers location choice with the geography of industrial production,one of the centripetal forces that drive agglomeration in the NEG models. The resultshighlight the presence of this forward linkage in the Spanish economy of the inter-warperiod. That is, we prove the existence of a direct relation between workers¿ localizationdecisions and the market potential of the host regions. In addition, the direct estimationof the values associated with key parameters in the NEG model allows us to simulatethe migratory flows derived from different scenarios of the relative size of regions andthe distances between them. We show that in Spain the power of attraction of theagglomerations grew as they increased in size, but the high elasticity estimated for themigration costs reduced the intensity of the migratory flows. This could help to explainthe apparently low intensity of internal migrations in Spain until its upsurge during the1920s. This also explains the geography of migrations in Spain during this period,which hardly affected the regions furthest from the large industrial agglomerations (i.e.,regions such as Andalusia, Estremadura and Castile-La Mancha) but had an intenseeffect on the provinces nearest to the principal centres of industrial development.

Testing for hysteresis in unemployment in OECD countries: new evidence using stationarity panel tests with breaks

This paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 19 OECD countries covering the period 1956-2001. The tests exploit the cross-section variations of the series, and additionally, allow for a diferent number of endogenous breakpoints in the unemployment series. The critical values are simulated based on our specific panel sizes and time periods. The findings stress the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks in the series and give support to the natural-rate hypothesis of unemployment for the majority of the countries analyzed

Testing for multicointegration in panel data with common factors

The paper addresses the concept of multicointegration in panel data frame- work. The proposal builds upon the panel data cointegration procedures developed in Pedroni (2004), for which we compute the moments of the parametric statistics. When individuals are either cross-section independent or cross-section dependence can be re- moved by cross-section demeaning, our approach can be applied to the wider framework of mixed I(2) and I(1) stochastic processes analysis. The paper also deals with the issue of cross-section dependence using approximate common factor models. Finite sample performance is investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we illustrate the use of the procedure investigating inventories, sales and production relationship for a panel of US industries.