914 resultados para Combination of short term inflation forecast models


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Children with nonorganic voice disorders (NVDs) are treated mainly using direct voice therapy techniques such as the accent method or glottal attack changes and indirect methods such as vocal hygiene and voice education. However, both approaches tackle only the symptoms and not etiological factors in the family dynamics and therefore often enjoy little success. The aim of the "Bernese Brief Dynamic Intervention" (BBDI) for children with NVD was to extend the effectiveness of pediatric voice therapies with a psychosomatic concept combining short-term play therapy with the child and family dynamic counseling of the parents. This study compares the therapeutic changes in three groups where different procedures were used, before intervention and 1 year afterward: counseling of parents (one to two consultations; n = 24), Brief Dynamic Intervention on the lines of the BBDI (three to five play therapy sessions with the child plus two to four sessions with the parents; n = 20), and traditional voice therapy (n = 22). A Voice Questionnaire for Parents developed by us with 59 questions to be answered on a four-point Likert scale was used to measure the change. According to the parents' assessment, a significant improvement in voice quality was achieved in all three methods. Counseling of parents (A) appears to have led parents to give their child more latitude, for example, they stopped nagging the child or demanding that he/she should behave strictly by the rules. After BBDI (B), the mothers were more responsive to their children's wishes and the children were more relaxed and their speech became livelier. At home, they called out to them less often at a distance, which probably improved parent-child dialog. Traditional voice therapy (C) seems to have had a positive effect on the children's social competence. BBDI seems to have the deepest, widest, and therefore probably the most enduring therapeutic effect on children with NVD.

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Objectives: To determine HIV-1 RNA in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of successfully treated patients and to evaluate if combination antiretroviral treatments with higher central nervous system penetration-effectiveness (CPE) achieve better CSF viral suppression. Methods: Viral loads (VLs) and drug concentrations of lopinavir, atazanavir, and efavirenz were measured in plasma and CSF. The CPE was calculated using 2 different methods. Results: The authors analyzed 87 CSF samples of 60 patients. In 4 CSF samples, HIV-1 RNA was detectable with 43–82 copies per milliliter. Median CPE in patients with detectable CSF VL was significantly lower compared with individuals with undetectable VL: CPE of 1.0 (range, 1.0–1.5) versus 2.3 (range, 1.0–3.5) using the method of 2008 (P = 0.011) and CPE of 6 (range, 6–8) versus 8 (range, 5–12) using the method of 2010 (P = 0.022). The extrapolated CSF trough levels for atazanavir (n = 12) were clearly above the 50% inhibitory concentration (IC50) in only 25% of samples; both patients on atazanavir/ritonavir with detectable CSF HIV-1 RNA had trough levels in the range of the presumed IC50. The extrapolated CSF trough level for lopinavir (n = 42) and efavirenz (n = 18) were above the IC50 in 98% and 78%, respectively, of samples, including the patients with detectable CSF HIV-1 RNA. Conclusions: This study suggests that treatment regimens with high intracerebral efficacy reflected by a high CPE score are essential to achieve CSF HIV-1 RNA suppression. The CPE score including all drug components was a better predictor for treatment failure in the CSF than the sole concentrations of protease inhibitor or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor in plasma or CSF.

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IMPORTANCE International guidelines advocate a 7- to 14-day course of systemic glucocorticoid therapy in acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, the optimal dose and duration are unknown. OBJECTIVE To investigate whether a short-term (5 days) systemic glucocorticoid treatment in patients with COPD exacerbation is noninferior to conventional (14 days) treatment in clinical outcome and whether it decreases the exposure to steroids. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS REDUCE: (Reduction in the Use of Corticosteroids in Exacerbated COPD), a randomized, noninferiority multicenter trial in 5 Swiss teaching hospitals, enrolling 314 patients presenting to the emergency department with acute COPD exacerbation, past or present smokers (≥20 pack-years) without a history of asthma, from March 2006 through February 2011. INTERVENTIONS Treatment with 40 mg of prednisone daily for either 5 or 14 days in a placebo-controlled, double-blind fashion. The predefined noninferiority criterion was an absolute increase in exacerbations of at most 15%, translating to a critical hazard ratio of 1.515 for a reference event rate of 50%. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE Time to next exacerbation within 180 days. RESULTS Of 314 randomized patients, 289 (92%) of whom were admitted to the hospital, 311 were included in the intention-to-treat analysis and 296 in the per-protocol analysis. Hazard ratios for the short-term vs conventional treatment group were 0.95 (90% CI, 0.70 to 1.29; P = .006 for noninferiority) in the intention-to-treat analysis and 0.93 (90% CI, 0.68 to 1.26; P = .005 for noninferiority) in the per-protocol analysis, meeting our noninferiority criterion. In the short-term group, 56 patients (35.9%) reached the primary end point; 57 (36.8%) in the conventional group. Estimates of reexacerbation rates within 180 days were 37.2% (95% CI, 29.5% to 44.9%) in the short-term; 38.4% (95% CI, 30.6% to 46.3%) in the conventional, with a difference of -1.2% (95% CI, -12.2% to 9.8%) between the short-term and the conventional. Among patients with a reexacerbation, the median time to event was 43.5 days (interquartile range [IQR], 13 to 118) in the short-term and 29 days (IQR, 16 to 85) in the conventional. There was no difference between groups in time to death, the combined end point of exacerbation, death, or both and recovery of lung function. In the conventional group, mean cumulative prednisone dose was significantly higher (793 mg [95% CI, 710 to 876 mg] vs 379 mg [95% CI, 311 to 446 mg], P < .001), but treatment-associated adverse reactions, including hyperglycemia and hypertension, did not occur more frequently. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In patients presenting to the emergency department with acute exacerbations of COPD, 5-day treatment with systemic glucocorticoids was noninferior to 14-day treatment with regard to reexacerbation within 6 months of follow-up but significantly reduced glucocorticoid exposure. These findings support the use of a 5-day glucocorticoid treatment in acute exacerbations of COPD. TRIAL REGISTRATION isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN19646069.

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The tail-withdrawal circuit of Aplysia provides a useful model system for investigating synaptic dynamics. Sensory neurons within the circuit manifest several forms of synaptic plasticity. Here, we developed a model of the circuit and investigated the ways in which depression (DEP) and potentiation (POT) contributed to information processing. DEP limited the amount of motor neuron activity that could be elicited by the monosynaptic pathway alone. POT within the monosynaptic pathway did not compensate for DEP. There was, however, a synergistic interaction between POT and the polysynaptic pathway. This synergism extended the dynamic range of the network, and the interplay between DEP and POT made the circuit responded preferentially to long-duration, low-frequency inputs.

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The tail-withdrawal circuit of Aplysia provides a useful model system for investigating synaptic dynamics. Sensory neurons within the circuit manifest several forms of synaptic plasticity. Here, we developed a model of the circuit and investigated the ways in which depression (DEP) and potentiation (POT) contributed to information processing. DEP limited the amount of motor neuron activity that could be elicited by the monosynaptic pathway alone. POT within the monosynaptic pathway did not compensate for DEP. There was, however, a synergistic interaction between POT and the polysynaptic pathway. This synergism extended the dynamic range of the network, and the interplay between DEP and POT made the circuit responded preferentially to long-duration, low-frequency inputs.

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Background: Total knee replacement is the gold standard treatment for patients suffering from advanced symptomatic knee osteoarthritis. The main goals of knee prosthetics are pain reduction and restoration of knee motion. The new prostheses on the market such as the bi-cruciate stabilized Journey knee implant, promise a reconstruction of total physiological function of the knee with physiological range of motion and therefore high patient satisfaction. Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyze the patient-based Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) outcome after total knee replacement with new physiological bi-cruciate stabilized Journey knee prosthesis. Study Design: Prospective, consecutive case-series. Patients: Ninety nine patients, who received bi-cruciate stabilized Journey total knee prosthesis between January 1st 2006 and May 31st 2012, were included in the study. A single surgeon operated all patients. There were 61.1% females and the overall average age was 68 years (range 41-83 years). Left knee was replaced in 55.6%. Methods: The patients filled in KOO’s questionnaire pre- and 1 year postoperative. Range of motion (ROM) was studied preoperatively and at 1-year follow-ups. The pre- and postoperative KOOS subscores and ROM were compared using the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Results: There are significant improvements of all KOOS subscores. Ninety percent of patients have reached the minimum clinically relevant 10 points in symptoms, 94.5% in pain, 94.5% in activities of daily living, 84.9% in sport and recreation, and 90% in knee related quality of life. Postoperative, the average passive ROM was 131° (range 110-145°) and the average active ROM 122° (range 105-135°). The highest correlation coefficients ROM and the KOOS were observed for the activity and pain subscores. Very low or no correlation was seen for the sport subscore. Conclusions: Bi-cruciate stabilized knee prosthetic offers a solid outcome 1 year postoperative based on the results measured with the KOOS evaluation questionnaire. The Patients showed a generalized improvement in all domains measured in the KOOS of minimally 35, and up to over 52 points, what can be described as statistically significant. Patients described the level of functionality close to double compared to the preoperative status.

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Plasticity at the connections between sensory neurons and their follower cells in Aplysia has been used extensively as a model system to examine mechanisms of simple forms of learning, such as sensitization. Sensitization is induced, at least in part, by the transmitter serotonin (5-HT) and expressed in several forms, including facilitation of sensorimotor connections. Spike broadening has been believed to be a key mechanism underlying facilitation of nondepressed synapses. Previously, this broadening was believed to be dependent primarily on cAMP/protein kinase A (PKA)-mediated reduction of a noninactivating, relatively voltage-independent K$\sp{+}$ current termed the S-K$\sp+$ current (I$\sb{\rm K{,}S}$). Recent evidence, however, suggests that 5-HT-induced somatic spike broadening is composed of at least two components: a cAMP-dependent, rapidly developing component and a cAMP-independent, slowly developing component.^ Phorbol esters, activators of protein kinase C (PKC), mimicked the cAMP-independent component of 5-HT-induced broadening. Staurosporine, which inhibits PKC, had little effect on the rapidly developing component of 5-HT-induced broadening, but inhibited significantly the slowly developing component. These results suggest that PKC is involved in the cAMP-independent component of 5-HT-induced broadening. The membrane currents responsible for the slowly developing component of broadening were examined. Activation of PKC mimicked, and partially occluded, 5-HT-induced modulation of membrane currents above 0 mV, where a voltage-dependent K$\sp+$ current (I$\sb{\rm K{,}V}$) is significantly activated. This modulation was complex because it was associated with a reduction in the magnitude of I$\sb{\rm K{,}V}$, as well as a slowing of both activation and inactivation kinetics of I$\sb{\rm K{,}V}$. These results support the hypothesis that PKC modulates I$\sb{\rm K{,}V}$ and that this modulation contributes to the slowly developing component of 5-HT-induced broadening. Based on these results and others, a new scheme for 5-HT-induced spike broadening is proposed in which the modulatory effects are mediated via two second messenger/protein kinase systems converging and diverging on multiple ionic conductances.^ The relationship between spike broadening and synaptic facilitation was also examined. Pharmacological reduction of I$\sb{\rm K{,}V}$ by low concentrations of 4-aminopyridine (4-AP) led to spike broadening and facilitation of the nondepressed sensorimotor connections, indicating that spike broadening via the reduction of I$\sc{K,V}$ can facilitate the synaptic connection. Further analyses, however, revealed that 4-AP-induced facilitation has qualitative differences from 5-HT- and PKC-induced facilitation. These results suggest that 5-HT- and PKC-induced facilitation of nondepressed synapses is mediated, at least in part, by spike-duration independent (SDI) processes. Under certain conditions, the PKC inhibitor, staurosporine, significantly inhibited the 5-HT-induced facilitation of sensorimotor connections.^ Finally, it was found that activation of PKC increased a basal level of cAMP and that PKC caused desensitization of the 5-HT receptor, which may be a possible negative feedback mechanism through which an extracellular ligand, 5-HT, is regulated. These results suggest that these two second messenger/protein kinase pathways can interact in the sensory neuron. Thus, neuronal plasticity that may contribute to learning and memory appears to involve several complex and interactive processes. ^

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PURPOSE In patients with schizophrenia, premorbid psychosocial adjustment is an important predictor of functional outcome. We studied functional outcome in young clinical high-risk (CHR) patients and how this was predicted by their childhood to adolescence premorbid adjustment. METHODS In all, 245 young help-seeking CHR patients were assessed with the Premorbid Adjustment Scale, the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS) and the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument (SPI-A). The SIPS assesses positive, negative, disorganised, general symptoms, and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), the SPI-A self-experienced basic symptoms; they were carried out at baseline, at 9-month and 18-month follow-up. Transitions to psychosis were identified. In the hierarchical linear model, associations between premorbid adjustment, background data, symptoms, transitions to psychosis and GAF scores were analysed. RESULTS During the 18-month follow-up, GAF scores improved significantly, and the proportion of patients with poor functioning decreased from 74% to 37%. Poor premorbid adjustment, single marital status, poor work status, and symptoms were associated with low baseline GAF scores. Low GAF scores were predicted by poor premorbid adjustment, negative, positive and basic symptoms, and poor baseline work status. The association between premorbid adjustment and follow-up GAF scores remained significant, even when baseline GAF and transition to psychosis were included in the model. CONCLUSION A great majority of help-seeking CHR patients suffer from deficits in their functioning. In CHR patients, premorbid psychosocial adjustment, baseline positive, negative, basic symptoms and poor working/schooling situation predict poor short-term functional outcome. These aspects should be taken into account when acute intervention and long-term rehabilitation for improving outcome in CHR patients are carried out.

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We tested whether OPAHs were formed during 19-wk incubation of a fertile soil at optimum moisture in the dark. The soil had initial mean (±s.e., n = 3) concentrations of 22 ± 1.7 (Σ28PAHs) and 4.2 ± 0.34 μg g−1 (Σ14OPAHs). After 19 wk, individual PAH and OPAH concentrations had decreased by up to 14 and 37%, respectively. Decreases in % of initial concentrations were positively correlated with their KOW values for PAHs (r = 0.48, p = 0.022) and 9 OPAHs (r = 0.78, p = 0.013) but negatively, albeit not significantly, for 5 OPAHs (r = −0.75, p = 0.145) suggesting net formation of some OPAHs. The latter was supported by significantly increasing 1-indanone/fluorene ratios while the other OPAH to parent-PAH ratios remained constant or tended to increase. We conclude that OPAHs are formed in soils during microbial turnover of PAHs in a short time.

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Lesni Potok stream drains a forested headwater catchment in the central Czech Republic. It was artificially acidified with hydrochloric acid (HCl) for four hours to assess the role of stream substrate in acid-neutralisation and recovery. The pH was lowered from 4.7 to 3.2. Desorption of Ca and MP and desorption or solution of Al dominated acid-neutralisation; Al mobilisation was more important later. The stream substrate released 4.542 meq Ca, 1, 184 meq Mg, and 2,329 meq Al over a 45 in long and I in wide stream segment, smaller amounts of Be. Cd, Fe, and Mn were released. Adsorption of SO42- and desorption of F- occurred during the acidification phase of the experiment. The exchange reactions were rapidly reversible for Ca, Mg and SO42- but not symmetric as the substrate resorbed 1083, 790 and 0 meq Ca, Mg, and Al. respectively, in a 4-hour recovery period. Desorption of SO42- occurred during the resorption of Ca and Mg. These exchange and dissolution reactions delay acidification, diminish the pH depression and retard recovery from episodic acidification. The behaviour of the stream substrate-water interaction resembles that for soil-soil water interactions. A mathematical dynamic mass-balance based model, MASS (Modelling Acidification of Stream Sediments), was developed which simulates the adsorption and desorption of base cations during the experiment and was successfully calibrated to the experimental data.

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An experimental short-term acidification with HCl at a first-order stream in central Maine, USA was used to study processes controlling the changes in stream chemistry and to assess the ability of stream substrate to buffer pH. The streambed exerted a strong buffering capacity against pH change by ion exchange during the 6-hour acidification. Streambed substrates had substantial cation and anion exchange capacity in the pH range of 4.1 to 6.5. The ion exchange for cations and SO42- were rapid and reversible. The speed of release of cations from stream substrates was Na1+ > Ca2+ > Mg2+ > Aln+ > Be2+, perhaps relating to charge density of these cations. Ca2+ desorption dominated neutralisation of excess H+ for the first 2 hr. As the reservoir of exchangeable Ca diminished, desorption land possibly dissolution) of Al3+ became the dominant neutralising mechanism. The exchangeable land possibly soluble) reservoir of Al was not depleted during the 6-hour acidification. Sulphate adsorption during the acidification reduced the concentration of SO42- in stream water by as much as 20 mu eq L-1 (from 70 mu eq L-1). Desorption of SO42- and adsorption of base cat ions after the artificial acidification resulted in a prolongation of the pH depression. The streambed had the capacity to buffer stream water chemistry significantly during an acidifying event affecting the entire upstream catchment.

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Due to the ongoing trend towards increased product variety, fast-moving consumer goods such as food and beverages, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals are typically manufactured through so-called make-and-pack processes. These processes consist of a make stage, a pack stage, and intermediate storage facilities that decouple these two stages. In operations scheduling, complex technological constraints must be considered, e.g., non-identical parallel processing units, sequence-dependent changeovers, batch splitting, no-wait restrictions, material transfer times, minimum storage times, and finite storage capacity. The short-term scheduling problem is to compute a production schedule such that a given demand for products is fulfilled, all technological constraints are met, and the production makespan is minimised. A production schedule typically comprises 500–1500 operations. Due to the problem size and complexity of the technological constraints, the performance of known mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulations and heuristic approaches is often insufficient. We present a hybrid method consisting of three phases. First, the set of operations is divided into several subsets. Second, these subsets are iteratively scheduled using a generic and flexible MILP formulation. Third, a novel critical path-based improvement procedure is applied to the resulting schedule. We develop several strategies for the integration of the MILP model into this heuristic framework. Using these strategies, high-quality feasible solutions to large-scale instances can be obtained within reasonable CPU times using standard optimisation software. We have applied the proposed hybrid method to a set of industrial problem instances and found that the method outperforms state-of-the-art methods.