968 resultados para Chance.


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This paper presents a methodology for real-time estimation of exit movement-specific average travel time on urban routes by integrating real-time cumulative plots, probe vehicles, and historic cumulative plots. Two approaches, component based and extreme based, are discussed for route travel time estimation. The methodology is tested with simulation and is validated with real data from Lucerne, Switzerland, that demonstrate its potential for accurate estimation. Both approaches provide similar results. The component-based approach is more reliable, with a greater chance of obtaining a probe vehicle in each interval, although additional data from each component is required. The extreme-based approach is simple and requires only data from upstream and downstream of the route, but the chances of obtaining a probe that traverses the entire route might be low. The performance of the methodology is also compared with a probe-only method. The proposed methodology requires only a few probes for accurate estimation; the probe-only method requires significantly more probes.

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The LIS profession in Australia is a small world where connections are vital for career success and developing resilience. So what about those of us who feel like wallflowers at the party, always on the margins? It can be difficult for quieter souls to step up, get involved and build relationships. A major hurdle for many people, both introverts and extroverts, is figuring out how to proclaim their awesomeness to the world but in a way that is unique to them. The aim of this session is to inspire and challenge students, new grads and anyone who has a fear of networking to take risks and explore a different more social side of themselves without changing their personalities. This is a deeply personal topic with plenty of fear and self-image issues at stake. As well, most of us have had very few opportunities to find role models or a chance to practice in a comfortable environment. Therefore the authors will present strategies for success based on their personal experiences. We will demonstrate the actual benefits we have attained through our networking and volunteer activities. We hope that attendees will come away with some realistic strategies and goals to create lasting relationships with present and future colleagues such as we have enjoyed. Our networking tips may not transform you into the belle of the ball but you will have more confidence to get out on the dance floor and dance to your own beat.

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Alcohol-related driving is a longstanding, serious problem in China (Li, Xie, Nie, & Zhang, 2012). On 1st May, 2011 a national law was introduced to criminalize drunk driving, and imposed serious penalties including jail for driving with a blood alcohol level of above 80mg/100ml. This pilot study, undertaken a year after introduction of the law, sought traffic police officers’ perceptions of drink driving and the practice of breath alcohol testing (BAT) in a large city in Guangdong Province, southern China. A questionnaire survey and semi-structured interviews were used to gain an in-depth understanding of issues relevant to alcohol-related driving. Fifty-five traffic police officers were recruited for the survey and six traffic police officers with a variety of working experience including roadside alcohol breath testing, traffic crash investigation and police resourcing were interviewed individually. The officers were recruited by the first author with the assistance of the staff from Guangdong Institute of Public Health, Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Interview participants reported three primary reasons why people drink and drive: 1) being prepared to take the chance of not being apprehended by police; 2) the strong traditional Chinese drinking culture; and 3) insufficient public awareness about the harmfulness of drink driving. Problems associated with the process of breath alcohol testing (BAT) were described and fit broadly into two categories: resourcing and avoiding detection. It was reported that there were insufficient traffic police officers to conduct routine traffic policing, including alcohol testing. Police BAT equipment was considered sufficient for routine traffic situations but not highway traffic operations. Local media and posters are used by the Public Security Bureau which is responsible for education about safe driving but participants thought that the education campaigns are limited in scope. Participants also described detection avoidance strategies used by drivers including: changing route; ignoring a police instruction to stop; staying inside the vehicle with windows and doors locked to avoid being tested; intentionally not performing breath tests correctly; and arguing with officers. This pilot study provided important insights from traffic police in one Chinese city which suggest there may be potential unintended effects of introducing more severe penalties including a range of strategies reportedly used by drivers to avoid detection. Recommendations for future research include a larger study to confirm these findings and examine the training and education of drivers; the focus and reach of publicity; and possible resource needs to support police enforcement.

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Background: Optimal adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is necessary for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV). There have been relatively few systematic analyses of factors that promote or inhibit adherence to antiretroviral therapy among PLHIV in Asia. This study assessed ART adherence and examined factors associated with suboptimal adherence in northern Viet Nam. Methods: Data from 615 PLHIV on ART in two urban and three rural outpatient clinics were collected by medical record extraction and from patient interviews using audio computer-assisted self-interview (ACASI). Results: The prevalence of suboptimal adherence was estimated to be 24.9% via a visual analogue scale (VAS) of past-month dose-missing and 29.1% using a modified Adult AIDS Clinical Trial Group scale for on-time dose-taking in the past 4 days. Factors significantly associated with the more conservative VAS score were: depression (p < 0.001), side-effect experiences (p < 0.001), heavy alcohol use (p = 0.001), chance health locus of control (p = 0.003), low perceived quality of information from care providers (p = 0.04) and low social connectedness (p = 0.03). Illicit drug use alone was not significantly associated with suboptimal adherence, but interacted with heavy alcohol use to reduce adherence (p < 0.001). Conclusions: This is the largest survey of ART adherence yet reported from Asia and the first in a developing country to use the ACASI method in this context. The evidence strongly indicates that ART services in Viet Nam should include screening and treatment for depression, linkage with alcohol and/or drug dependence treatment, and counselling to address the belief that chance or luck determines health outcomes.

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In the era of global knowledge economy, urban regions—seeking to increase their competitive edge, become destinations for talent and investment, and provide prosperity and quality of life to their inhabitants—have little chance achieving their development goals without forming effective knowledge-based urban development (KBUD) strategies. KBUD paradigm suggests that the economic future of cities increasingly depends on the capacity to attract, generate, retain and foster creativity, knowledge and innovation—and make space and place for knowledge generation and knowledge communities. Thus, the paper aims to shed light on the planning and development processes of the KBUD phenomenon with respect to the construction of sustainable knowledge community precincts (KCPs) aimed at making space for knowledge generation and place for knowledge communities—and provide useful lessons for the developing country cities seeking such sustainable and KBUD.

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In the era of global knowledge economy, urban regions that are seeking to increase their competitive edge, become destinations for talent and investment, and provide prosperity and quality of life to their inhabitants have little chance achieving their development goals without forming effective knowledge-based urban development strategies. This paper aims to shed light on the planning and development of the knowledge-based urban development phenomenon with respect to the construction of knowledge community precincts aimed at building contemporary urban spaces of knowledge and innovation. Following to a thorough review of the literature on knowledge-based urban development, the paper undertakes policy and best practice analyses to learn from the internationally renowned Australian knowledge community precincts, from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, to better understand the dynamics of knowledge community precinct development practices. The paper provides a discussion on the study findings and recommendations for successfully establishing contemporary urban spaces of knowledge and innovation.

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New Australian research has found scientists spent the equivalent of 550 working years applying for grants from the country's largest health and medical research grants scheme in 2012, and that around 75% of this time was spent on unsuccessful applications. The Queensland University of Technology (QUT) study also found that spending more time on a funding proposal did not equate to a greater chance of success.

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A user’s query is considered to be an imprecise description of their information need. Automatic query expansion is the process of reformulating the original query with the goal of improving retrieval effectiveness. Many successful query expansion techniques ignore information about the dependencies that exist between words in natural language. However, more recent approaches have demonstrated that by explicitly modeling associations between terms significant improvements in retrieval effectiveness can be achieved over those that ignore these dependencies. State-of-the-art dependency-based approaches have been shown to primarily model syntagmatic associations. Syntagmatic associations infer a likelihood that two terms co-occur more often than by chance. However, structural linguistics relies on both syntagmatic and paradigmatic associations to deduce the meaning of a word. Given the success of dependency-based approaches and the reliance on word meanings in the query formulation process, we argue that modeling both syntagmatic and paradigmatic information in the query expansion process will improve retrieval effectiveness. This article develops and evaluates a new query expansion technique that is based on a formal, corpus-based model of word meaning that models syntagmatic and paradigmatic associations. We demonstrate that when sufficient statistical information exists, as in the case of longer queries, including paradigmatic information alone provides significant improvements in retrieval effectiveness across a wide variety of data sets. More generally, when our new query expansion approach is applied to large-scale web retrieval it demonstrates significant improvements in retrieval effectiveness over a strong baseline system, based on a commercial search engine.

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Many successful query expansion techniques ignore information about the term dependencies that exist within natural language. However, researchers have recently demonstrated that consistent and significant improvements in retrieval effectiveness can be achieved by explicitly modelling term dependencies within the query expansion process. This has created an increased interest in dependency-based models. State-of-the-art dependency-based approaches primarily model term associations known within structural linguistics as syntagmatic associations, which are formed when terms co-occur together more often than by chance. However, structural linguistics proposes that the meaning of a word is also dependent on its paradigmatic associations, which are formed between words that can substitute for each other without effecting the acceptability of a sentence. Given the reliance on word meanings when a user formulates their query, our approach takes the novel step of modelling both syntagmatic and paradigmatic associations within the query expansion process based on the (pseudo) relevant documents returned in web search. The results demonstrate that this approach can provide significant improvements in web re- trieval effectiveness when compared to a strong benchmark retrieval system.

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Solar keratoses (SKs) are induced by exposure to UV radiation and are capable of undergoing transformation to squamous cell carcinoma (SCC).1 The two main factors influencing the occurrence of SK are the sensitivity of the skin to sunlight and the total duration of solar exposure. These factors are responsible for the high incidence of SK in Australia. Although the influence of genetic factors is not defined, there is evidence that the gene encoding the enzyme, glutathione S-transferase, may be implicated in cancer predisposition and therefore SK. Glutathione S-transferase Mu-1 (GSTM1) is an isoenzyme involved in the detoxification of carcinogens. The GSTM1 protein is completely absent in approximately 50% of white persons. This absence is caused by a homozygous gene deletion on chromosome 1p resulting in a null genotype.2 Katoh3 showed that the frequency of the GSTM1 null genotype was significantly higher in 85 patients with urothelial cancer (61.2%; p < 0.05), suggesting that the null genotype may increase cancer susceptibility. This finding was supported by Lafuente et al.4 who found evidence that persons who lack the GSTM1 gene have approximately twice the chance of experiencing malignant melanoma. Further research in the United Kingdom found that patients with two or more skin tumors of different types, basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and SCC, had a significantly higher frequency of GSTM1 null genotypes than controls (71%; p = 0.033). However the GSTM1 genotype in patients with only SCC was not excessive in this population.5 Persons residing in northern Australia have the highest incidence of nonmelanoma skin cancer (SCC and BCC) in the world6 and receive far greater solar exposure than persons residing in the United Kingdom. It is possible that the GSTM1 null genotype may affect susceptibility to SK, which may act as SCC precursors, in Australians exposed to these high levels of solar radiation.

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The incidence of Squamous Cell Carcinoma (SCG) is growing in certain populations to the extent that it is now the most common skin lesion in young men and women in high ultraviolet exposure regions such as Queensland. In terms of incidence up to 40% of the Australian population over 40 years of age is thought to possess the precancerous Solar Keratosis (SK) lesion and with a small, but significant, chance of progression into SCC, understanding the genetic events that play a role in this process is essential. The major aims of this study were to analyse whole blood derived samples for DNA aberrations in genes associated with tumour development and cellular maintenance, with the ultimate aim of identifying genes associated with non-melanoma skin cancer development. More specifically the first aim of this project was to analyse the SDHD and MMP12 genes via Dual-Labelled Probe Real-Time PCR for copy number aberrations in an affected Solar Keratosis and control cohort. It was found that 12 samples had identifiable copy-number aberrations in either the SDHD or MMP12 gene (this means that a genetic section of either of these two genes is aberrantly amplified or deleted), with five of the samples exhibiting aberrations in both genes. The significance of this study is the contribution to the knowledge of the genetic pathways that are malformed in the progression and development of the pre-cancerous skin lesion Solar Keratosis. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

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"Emphasises asset allocation while presenting the practical applications of investment theory. The authors concentrate on the intuition and insights that will be useful to students throughout their careers as new ideas and challenges emerge from the financial marketplace. It provides a good foundation to understand the basic types of securities and financial markets as well as how trading in those markets is conducted. The Portfolio Management section is discussed towards the end of the course and supported by a web-based portfolio simulation with a hypothetical $100,000 brokerage account to buy and sell stocks and mutual funds. Students get a chance to use real data found in the Wall Street Survivor simulation in conjunction with the chapters on investments. This site is powered by StockTrak, the leading provider of investment simulation services to the academic community. Principles of Investments includes increased attention to changes in market structure and trading technology. The theory is supported by a wide range of exercises, worksheets and problems."--publisher website Contents: Investments: background and issues -- Asset classes and financial markets -- Securities markets -- Managed funds and investment management -- Risk and return: past and prologue -- Efficient diversification -- Capital asset pricing and arbitrage pricing theory -- The efficient market hypothesis -- Bond prices and yields -- Managing bond portfolios -- Equity valuation -- Macroeconomic and industry analysis -- Financial statement analysis -- Investors and the investment process -- Hedge funds -- Portfolio performance evaluation.

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The International Network for Food and Obesity/non-communicable diseases Research, Monitoring and Action Support (INFORMAS) proposes to collect performance indicators on food policies, actions and environments related to obesity and non-communicable diseases. This paper reviews existing communications strategies used for performance indicators and proposes the approach to be taken for INFORMAS. Twenty-seven scoring and rating tools were identified in various fields of public health including alcohol, tobacco, physical activity, infant feeding and food environments. These were compared based on the types of indicators used and how they were quantified, scoring methods, presentation and the communication and reporting strategies used. There are several implications of these analyses for INFORMAS: the ratings/benchmarking approach is very commonly used, presumably because it is an effective way to communicate progress and stimulate action, although this has not been formally evaluated; the tools used must be trustworthy, pragmatic and policy-relevant; multiple channels of communication will be needed; communications need to be tailored and targeted to decision-makers; data and methods should be freely accessible. The proposed communications strategy for INFORMAS has been built around these lessons to ensure that INFORMAS's outputs have the greatest chance of being used to improve food environments.

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Integration of small-scale electricity generators, known as Distributed Generation (DG), into the distribution networks has become increasingly popular at the present. This tendency together with the falling price of synchronous-type generator has potential to give the DG a better chance in participating in the voltage regulation process together with other devices already available in the system. The voltage control issue turns out to be a very challenging problem for the distribution engineers since existing control coordination schemes would need to be reconsidered to take into account the DG operation. In this paper, we propose a control coordination technique, which is able to utilize the ability of the DG as a voltage regulator, and at the same time minimizes interaction with other active devices, such as On-load Tap Changing Transformer (OLTC) and voltage regulator. The technique has been developed based on the concept of control zone, Line Drop Compensation (LDC), as well as the choice of controller's parameters. Simulations carried out on an Australian system show that the technique is suitable and flexible for any system with multiple regulating devices including DG.

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This article follows a previous (2008) article titled 'Siam' in the same publication and it examines the role of serendipity and chance in art, research, through and the migrant story. This is against the background of Women POW's in WWII; post-war migration to regional Australia and artefacts which reflect global history through a very personal story.