Ajuda externa e crescimento económico: o Millennium challenge account em Cabo Verde

A discussão sobre a questão da efectividade da ajuda externa já dura há décadas. Se por um lado estão estudos que consideram que a ajuda externa tem um impacto positivo no crescimento económico, por outro estão aqueles que concluíram que os fluxos de ajuda apenas contribuem para aumentar a corrupção, a pobreza e perpetuar maus governos. Este trabalho de investigação discute a questão da efectividade das ajudas externas no caso concreto de Cabo Verde. O país passou recentemente a beneficiar de um novo programa de ajudas externas, o Millennium Challenge Account, pelo que é pertinente perceber se os fluxos de ajudas externas, em geral, e do programa MCA, em particular, têm dado resultados positivos para o país. Para a análise empírica, foram analisados os relatórios anuais do Banco de Cabo Verde e outras fontes complementares, e os dados usados são referentes a 23 anos. A conclusão da análise econométrica sugere que a ajuda externa se tem repercutido de forma positiva no crescimento económico de Cabo Verde, apesar da variável Assistência Oficial ao Desenvolvimento não ter apresentado significância estatística. Os fluxos privados são contudo fortemente positivos e significativos. O impacto do programa MCA também se revelou positivo para o crescimento económico do país, reforçando a ideia de que quando a ajuda é direccionada para sectores que dinamizam o crescimento da economia, o seu impacto no mesmo é positivo. ABSTRACT; The debate about the question of foreign aid effectiveness goes back decades. While on one side, there are researchers that conclude that foreign aid have a positive impact on economic growth, on the other side, there are those who conclude that the flows of aid only contribute to promote corruption, poverty and perpetuate bad governments. This work investigates the question of foreign aid effectiveness in the economic growth rates of Cape Verde. Since Cape Verde became recently a beneficiary of the new program of foreign aid, the Millennium Challenge Account, it would be interesting to understand if the flows of foreign aid and the MCA have given positive results in the case of Cape Verde. To reach these goals, the annual reports of the Central Bank of Cape Verde, together with other sources, have been analysed and the data refers to 23 years. The results of the econometric analyses suggest that foreign aid has had a positive impact on economic growth in Cape Verde. Even though the Official Development Assistance did not present statistically significant coefficient, the Private Flows seem to be largely positive and significant. The impact of the MCA program also revealed a positive impact on the economic growth of the Cape Verdean's islands, and it reinforces the idea that when the flow of aid is directed at those sectors that promote economic growth, its impact on the economy is largely positive and significant.

Fragilidad financiera en Colombia y las decisiones de política monetaria del Banco de la República, 1996-2012

Este artículo evalúa cuál ha sido el papel de las decisiones de política monetaria del Banco de la República dentro de los procesos de inestabilidad financiera acaecidos en Colombia en el período 1996-2012. Según la revisión de hechos, la crisis de 1999 puso en duda el papel estabilizador del banco central, lo cual reflejó una postura contra-cíclica demasiado débil para la recuperación, y la crisis de 2008 encontró un banco más preparado, aunque con respuesta tardía a los procesos emergentes de fragilidad financiera. A través de estimaciones econométricas se evidencia que una política monetaria contractiva puede inducir una crisis financiera cuando la reacción se da en momentos de mayor estrés financiero.

Resúmenes de los Trabajos Finales de Graduación para Optar por el Título de Licenciatura en Bibliotecología y Documentación, 1998-1999

El objetivo de este Trabajo Final de Graduación fue formular una propuesta de diseño y construcción de una Intranet, que permita al Centro de Documentación "Alvaro Castro Jenkins" del Banco Central de Costa Rica, administrar los recursos, servicios, y productos de información de acceso confidencial, discrecional y restringido a los funcionarios del Banco, con una red privada de comunicaciones, basada en los protocolos TCP/IP y tecnologías de World Wide Web (WWW). La implementación de la Unidad de Información del OVSICORI se propuso a partir del diagnóstico de la infraestructura, de los recursos tecnológicos, recursos documentales, financieros, humanos y necesidades de los usuarios reales y potenciales. Este Trabajo Final de Graduación consistió en una investigación descriptiva en la que se realizó un diagnóstico de los servicios de información existentes en la Biblioteca Conjunta de la Corte Interamericana de Derechos Humanos y del Instituto Interamericano de Derechos Humanos, con el fin de analizar la pertinencia y utilidad de los mismos y proponer un programa de mejoramiento continuo para los servicios y productos existentes, así como el diseño de nuevos servicios y productos de información.

From privatisation to nationalisation: Repsol-YPF, 1999–2012

In April 2012 Argentinean Government nationalized 51% of Repsol shares in YPF. Expropiation of YPF is a new step in a broad list of protectionist and interventionist decisions, such as the nationalization of Aerolíneas Argentinas, nationalization of private pension plans, or the amendments of the Central Bank regulations to make the use of reserves more flexible. Institutions set the rules of the game for citizens and companies, allowing incentives and creating expectations. Nationalization of the above mentioned Argentinean companies has created legal uncertainty bringing a relevant increase in the risk premium as a result. Privatization of YPF and its later nationalization, together with the company shareholder composition, and resulting international disputes will be addressed in this article.

LA POLÍTICA MONETARIA ANTE LA CRISIS

Resumen La actuación del Banco Central frente a la crisis ha sido objeto de críticas constantes por distintos sectores del país, pues su accionar se considera pobre e inclusive equivocado. Los problemas de la gestión de la política monetaria no son recientes, iniciaron en el 2006 con la implementación del sistema de bandas cambiarias. El sistema como tal no tiene fallas, sin embargo, las autoridades han cometido errores importantes en su aplicación que dificultan adoptar medidas anticrisis en el presente. Una política monetaria procíclica es quizás el principal problema que enfrenta el Banco Central, que en la actualidad afronta una fuerte contracción de la economía costarricense y no ha creado las condiciones para aplicar medidas paliativas. Adicionalmente, el Banco aún no reconoce la contradicción de sus medidas y pronto deberá enfrentarse a una disminución de las tasas de interés y un ajuste del tipo de cambio. Abstract The Central Bank's performance against the crisis has been the subject of critics by different economic sectors, because its performance is considered poor or even wrong. The problems of management of monetary policy are not recent, initiated in 2006 with the reform of foreign exchange policy. The system itself has no faults, but the authorities have made mistakes in its implementation that difficult the anticrisis action. A procyclical monetary policy is perhaps the biggest problem facing the Central Bank, which now faces a sharp contraction in the Costa Rican economy and has created the conditions for implementing mitigation measures. Additionally, the Bank still does not recognize the contradiction in their policies, and must soon face a reduction in interest rates and exchange rate adjustment.

MEDIDAS DE NÚCLEO INFLACIONARIO PARA COSTA RICA

En este documento se elaboran y evalúan medidas alternativas de núcleo inflacionario para Costa Rica. La idea fundamental contempla al núcleo inflacionario como un indicador de la tendencia subyacente de la inflación capaz de capturar el componente del cambio total de precios común a todos los bienes y servicios, cuya persistencia se mantendría en el mediano y largo plazo y que excluye los cambios en los precios relativos de estos. La medida de núcleo inflacionario seleccionada se contrasta con el Índice de Núcleo Inflacionario (INI), indicador de inflación subyacente actualmente utilizado por el Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR).El Índice Subyacente de Inflación (ISI), definido como una medida de núcleo inflacionario que excluye un 30,7% del peso total del Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC), refleja más fielmente la tendencia subyacente de la inflación y logra capturar el movimiento más permanente del nivel general de precios, aislando las variaciones en precios relativos. Además, el ISI es fácil de calcular e interpretar lo cual ayuda a incrementar la transparencia y credibilidad de la política monetaria. También es un indicador oportuno, aumentando su valor para los que formulan la política monetaria. Por último, el ISI supera algunas de las limitaciones del INI, como son la falta de un criterio estadístico para definir el punto de corte de los bienes y servicios a excluir y el alto porcentaje del peso total del IPC eliminado. AbstractThis paper builds and evaluates several alternative measures of core inflation for Costa Rica. The chosen measure of core inflation is contrasted with the core inflation index (INI), which is the indicator of underlying inflation used today by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR). The main idea is that core inflation is a good indicator of the underlying inflation and catches the part of overall price change common to all the goods and services that is expected to persist in the medium-term and long-term, and excludes changes in the relative prices of goods and services.The Underlying Inflation Index (ISI) is defined as a measure of core inflation which excludes 30,7% of the total weight of the Consumer Price Index (IPC), it is the most closely related with inflation´s underlying trend and catches the component of overall price change that is expected to persist in the general level of prices. Furthermore, the ISI is easy to compute and to follow, increasing the transparency and credibility of monetary policy and moreover is an timely indicator increasing its value for the monetary policy makers. Finally, the ISI exceed some limitations of INI, as the absence of statistic criterion to define the cutting point of goods and services to exclude and the high percent of total weight eliminated of IPC.

Teste para existência de dominância fiscal no Brasil entre 2011 e 2015

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Departamento de Economia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia, 2016.

Inter-industry analysis and monetary policy evaluations in the Korean flow of funds accounts

This study mainly aims to provide an inter-industry analysis through the subdivision of various industries in flow of funds (FOF) accounts. Combined with the Financial Statement Analysis data from 2004 and 2005, the Korean FOF accounts are reconstructed to form "from-whom-to-whom" basis FOF tables, which are composed of 115 institutional sectors and correspond to tables and techniques of input–output (I–O) analysis. First, power of dispersion indices are obtained by applying the I–O analysis method. Most service and IT industries, construction, and light industries in manufacturing are included in the first quadrant group, whereas heavy and chemical industries are placed in the fourth quadrant since their power indices in the asset-oriented system are comparatively smaller than those of other institutional sectors. Second, investments and savings, which are induced by the central bank, are calculated for monetary policy evaluations. Industries are bifurcated into two groups to compare their features. The first group refers to industries whose power of dispersion in the asset-oriented system is greater than 1, whereas the second group indicates that their index is less than 1. We found that the net induced investments (NII)–total liabilities ratios of the first group show levels half those of the second group since the former's induced savings are obviously greater than the latter.

Bayesian Estimation of Small Proportions Using Binomial Group Test

Group testing has long been considered as a safe and sensible relative to one-at-a-time testing in applications where the prevalence rate p is small. In this thesis, we applied Bayes approach to estimate p using Beta-type prior distribution. First, we showed two Bayes estimators of p from prior on p derived from two different loss functions. Second, we presented two more Bayes estimators of p from prior on π according to two loss functions. We also displayed credible and HPD interval for p. In addition, we did intensive numerical studies. All results showed that the Bayes estimator was preferred over the usual maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for small p. We also presented the optimal β for different p, m, and k.

Ciclos económicos, capital bancario y nuevas opciones de política económica

El objetivo de este trabajo es utilizar algunos hechos estilizados de la "Gran recesión", específicamente la drástica caída en el nivel de capitalización bancario, para analizar la relación entre los ciclos financieros y los ciclos reales, así como la efectividad de la política monetaria no convencional y las políticas macroprudenciales. Para esto, en el primer capítulo se desarrolla una microfundamentación de la banca a partir de un modelo de Costly State Verification, que es incluido posteriomente en distintas especificaciones de modelos DSGE. Los resultados muestran que: (i) los ciclos financieros y los ciclos económicos pueden relacionarse a partir del deterioro del capital bancario; (ii) Las políticas macroprudenciales y no convencionales son efectivas para moderar los ciclos económicos, pero son costosas en términos de recursos e inflación.

Estudio de empresas de sectores hegemónicos en Colombia para los años 2013 y 2014

Este documento evidencia las posiciones hegemónicas que han llegado a ocupar las empresas más poderosas del país, basándose en el estudio de datos cuantitativos del conteo de las cien empresas con mejores ventas para los años 2013 y 2014, según la revista Gerente. Se usan cinco variables: ventas totales, activos, pasivos, patrimonio y utilidades netas. En la primera sección, se hace una revisión bibliográfica que conecta el origen de la hegemonía en un panorama económico con la influencia del neoliberalismo y la globalización en el actual tejido industrial colombiano. Posteriormente, se realiza una explicación sobre la metodología aplicada para el estudio de la base de datos; la cual es seguida por una exposición de los resultados obtenidos a partir de herramientas estadísticas como el análisis de correlación lineal, quintiles y variaciones porcentuales. Finalmente, se aborda el Programa de Transformación Productiva, esto con el objetivo de mostrar los puntos focales que necesitan especial atención para lograr catalizar el desarrollo económico de Colombia.

Reconstruction of spatiotemporal capture data by means of orthogonal functions: the case of skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) in the central-east Atlantic

[EN] The information provided by the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) on captures of skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) in the central-east Atlantic has a number of limitations, such as gaps in the statistics for certain fleets and the level of spatiotemporal detail at which catches are reported. As a result, the quality of these data and their effectiveness for providing management advice is limited. In order to reconstruct missing spatiotemporal data of catches, the present study uses Data INterpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions (DINEOF), a technique for missing data reconstruction, applied here for the first time to fisheries data. DINEOF is based on an Empirical Orthogonal Functions decomposition performed with a Lanczos method. DINEOF was tested with different amounts of missing data, intentionally removing values from 3.4% to 95.2% of data loss, and then compared with the same data set with no missing data. These validation analyses show that DINEOF is a reliable methodological approach of data reconstruction for the purposes of fishery management advice, even when the amount of missing data is very high.

Functions and effects of creatine in the central nervous system

Creatine kinase catalyses the reversible transphosphorylation of creatine by ATP. In the cell, creatine kinase isoenzymes are specifically localized at strategic sites of ATP consumption to efficiently regenerate ATP in situ via phosphocreatine or at sites of ATP generation to build-up a phosphocreatine pool. Accordingly, the creatine kinase/phosphocreatine system plays a key role in cellular energy buffering and energy transport, particularly in cells with high and fluctuating energy requirements like neurons. Creatine kinases are expressed in the adult and developing human brain and spinal cord, suggesting that the creatine kinase/phosphocreatine system plays a significant role in the central nervous system. Functional impairment of this system leads to a deterioration in energy metabolism, which is phenotypic for many neurodegenerative and age-related diseases. Exogenous creatine supplementation has been shown to reduce neuronal cell loss in experimental paradigms of acute and chronic neurological diseases. In line with these findings, first clinical trials have shown beneficial effects of therapeutic creatine supplementation. Furthermore, creatine was reported to promote differentiation of neuronal precursor cells that might be of importance for improving neuronal cell replacement strategies. Based on these observations there is growing interest on the effects and functions of this compound in the central nervous system. This review gives a short excursion into the basics of the creatine kinase/phosphocreatine system and aims at summarizing findings and concepts on the role of creatine kinase and creatine in the central nervous system with special emphasis on pathological conditions and the positive effects of creatine supplementation.

Cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers of central nervous system dysfunction in HIV-infected patients

Background :¦In addition to opportunistic infections of the central nervous system (CNS), which are due to immunosuppression related to HIV, the latter virus, itself, can cause neuropathological abnormalities which are located mainly in the basal ganglia and are characterized by microglial giant cells, reactive astrocytosis and perivascular monocytes. This HIV encephalopathy is characterized, clinically, by psycho-motor slowing, memory loss, difficulties in complex tasks requiring executive functions, as well as motor disorders .These cognitive deficits are grouped under the acronym of HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND). In fact, HANDs are subdivided in three groups in accordance with the severity of the cognitive impairment: Asymptomatic Neurocognitive Impairment (ANI), Mild/moderate Neurocognitive Disorders (MND) and HIV Associated Dementia (HAD).¦While the incidence of HAD has significantly decreased in the era of combined antiretrobiral therapy (cART), the prevalence of milder forms of HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders HAND seem to have increased. There are many potential reasons to explain this state of facts.¦An important question is to understand how soon the brain may be affected by HIV. Since performing a biopsy in these patients is not an issue, the study of the CSF represents the best available way to look at putative biomarkers of inflammation/neurodegeneration in the CNS. Here, we wanted to examined the putative usefulness of different biomarkers as early indicators of anti-retroviral failure at the level of the CNS. We chose to study the CSF levels of:¦Amyloid-β 1-42 (Aβ42), Tau total (tTau), phosphorylated Tau (pTau), Neopterin and S100-β.¦Indeed, these molecules are representative biomarkers of the major cells of the CNS, i.e. neurons,¦macrophages/microglia and astrocytes.¦To examine how sensitive were these CSF biomarkers to indicate CNS insults caused by HIV, we proposed to take advantage of the MOST (Monotherapy Switzerland/Thailand study) study, recently published in AIDS. Thus, we collaborated with Prof. Pietro Vernazza in St-Gall. In MOST study, monotherapy (MT) consisting in ritonavir-boosted lopinavir (LPV/r) was compared to continuous conventional antiretroviral therapy including several molecules, hereafter referred as CT¦Methods :We tested 61 cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples from 52 patients enrolled in MOST, including 34 CSF samples of CT and 27 of MT (mean duration on MT: 47+20 weeks) in patients who maintained full VL suppression in blood (<50cps/ml). Using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), we determined the CSF concentration of S100-beta (astrocytosis), neopterin (microglia, inflammation), total Tau (tTau), phosphorylated Tau (pTau), and amyloid-beta 1-42 (Abeta), the latter three markers indicating neuronal damages. The CSF samples of 37 HIV-negative patients with Alzheimer dementia (AD) served as controls. Results are expressed in pg/ml and reported as median ± interquartile range. Mann Whitney-U test was used to compare the results of a given biomarker between two groups and the Fisher test to compare frequencies.¦Results: We found a higher concentration of S100-beta (570±1132) and neopterin (2.5±2.9) in the CSF of MT versus CT (0±532, p=0.002 and 1.2±2.5, p=0.058, respectively). A cutoff of 940 pg/ml for S100-beta allowed to discriminate MT (11 above versus 16 below) from CT (1 vs 33, p=0.0003). At a lesser extent, a cutoff of 11 pg/ml for neopterin separated MT (4 above versus 23) from CT (0 vs 34, p=0.034) (Figure).¦In AD, tTau was higher (270±414) and Abeta lower (234±328) than in CT (150±153, p=0.0078, and 466±489, p=0.007, respectively). Such as for CT, Abeta was lower in AD than in MT (390±412, p=0.01). However, contrasting with CT, the levels of tTau were not different between AD and MT (199±177, p=0.11). S100b (173±214; p=0.0006) and neopterin (1.1±0.9; p=0.0014) were lower in AD than MT.¦Conclusions: Despite full VL-suppression in blood, HIV monotherapy is sufficient to trigger inflammation and, especially, astrocytosis. CSF markers of patients on CT have the same profile as reported for healthy subjects, suggesting that CT permits a good control of HIV in the brain. Finally, the levels of tTau, which are relatively similar between AD and MT patients, suggest that neurons are damaged during monotherapy.

Intensity correlation functions of dye lasers: Comparison of colored-gain-noise and colored-loss-noise models

The intensity correlation functions C(t) for the colored-gain-noise model of dye lasers are analyzed and compared with those for the loss-noise model. For correlation times ¿ larger than the deterministic relaxation time td, we show with the use of the adiabatic approximation that C(t) values coincide for both models. For small correlation times we use a method that provides explicit expressions of non-Markovian correlation functions, approximating simultaneously short- and long-time behaviors. Comparison with numerical simulations shows excellent results simultaneously for short- and long-time regimes. It is found that, when the correlation time of the noise increases, differences between the gain- and loss-noise models tend to disappear. The decay of C(t) for both models can be described by a time scale that approaches the deterministic relaxation time. However, in contrast with the loss-noise model, a secondary time scale remains for large times for the gain-noise model, which could allow one to distinguish between both models.