Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions

This paper fills a gap in the existing literature on least squareslearning in linear rational expectations models by studying a setup inwhich agents learn by fitting ARMA models to a subset of the statevariables. This is a natural specification in models with privateinformation because in the presence of hidden state variables, agentshave an incentive to condition forecasts on the infinite past recordsof observables. We study a particular setting in which it sufficesfor agents to fit a first order ARMA process, which preserves thetractability of a finite dimensional parameterization, while permittingconditioning on the infinite past record. We describe how previousresults (Marcet and Sargent [1989a, 1989b] can be adapted to handlethe convergence of estimators of an ARMA process in our self--referentialenvironment. We also study ``rates'' of convergence analytically and viacomputer simulation.

Testing for convergence clubs in income per-capita: A predictive density approach

The paper proposes a technique to jointly test for groupings of unknown size in the cross sectional dimension of a panel and estimates the parameters of each group, and applies it to identifying convergence clubs in income per-capita. The approach uses the predictive density of the data, conditional on the parameters of the model. The steady state distribution of European regional data clusters around four poles of attraction with different economic features. The distribution of incomeper-capita of OECD countries has two poles of attraction and each grouphas clearly identifiable economic characteristics.

Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles

This paper examines the properties of G-7 cycles using a multicountry Bayesian panelVAR model with time variations, unit specific dynamics and cross country interdependences.We demonstrate the presence of a significant world cycle and show that country specificindicators play a much smaller role. We detect differences across business cycle phasesbut, apart from an increase in synchronicity in the late 1990s, find little evidence of major structural changes. We also find no evidence of the existence of an Euro area specific cycle or of its emergence in the 1990s.

It's still 2%: evidence on convergence from 116 years of the US States panel data

A new debate over the speed of convergence in per capita income across economies is going on. Cross sectional estimates support the idea of slow convergence of about two percent per year. Panel data estimates support the idea of fast convergence of five, ten or even twenty percent per year. This paper shows that, if you ``do it right'', even the panel data estimation method yields the result of slow convergence of about two percent per year.

Microfabrics in carbonate mylonites along a large-scale shear zone (Helvetic Alps)

Carbonate mylonites with varying proportions of second-phase minerals were collected at positions of increasing metamorphic grade along the basal thrust of the Morcles nappe (Helvetic nappes, Switzerland). Variations of temperature, stress, and strain rate, changes in chemistry of solid and fluid phases, and differing degrees of strain localization and annealing were tracked by measuring the shapes, mean sizes, and size distributions of both matrix and second-phase grains, as well as crystal preferred orientation (CPO) of the matrix. Field structures suggest that strain rate was constant along the fault. The mean and distribution of the calcite grain sizes were affected most profoundly by temperature: Increased temperature, presumably accompanied by decreased stress, correlated with larger mean sizes and wider size distributions. At a given location, the matrix grains in mylonites with more second-phase particles are, on average, smaller, have narrower size distributions, and have more elongate shapes. For example, mylonites with 50 vol.% of second phases have matrix grain sizes half that of pure mylonites. Changes in calcite chemistry and the presence of synkinematic fluids seemed to influence microfabric only weakly. Temporal variations in conditions, such as exhumation-induced cooling, apparently provoke changes in temperature, stress, and strain rate along the nappe. These changes result in further strain localization during retrograde conditions and cause the grain size to be reduced by an additional 50%. The matrix CPO strengthens with increasing temperature or strain, but weakens and rotates with increasing second-phase content, These fabric changes suggest differing rates of grain growth, grain size reduction, and development of CPO owing to variations in the deformation conditions and, perhaps, mechanisms. To interpret natural mylonite structures or to extrapolate mechanical data to natural situations requires careful characterization of the microfabric, and, in particular, second-phase minerals. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V, All rights reserved.

Cedar Rapids-Iowa City Goose Hunting Zone, 2005

Regulations for hunting in Iowa.

Effect of genetic convergence on phylogenetic inference.

Phylogenetic reconstructions are a major component of many studies in evolutionary biology, but their accuracy can be reduced under certain conditions. Recent studies showed that the convergent evolution of some phenotypes resulted from recurrent amino acid substitutions in genes belonging to distant lineages. It has been suggested that these convergent substitutions could bias phylogenetic reconstruction toward grouping convergent phenotypes together, but such an effect has never been appropriately tested. We used computer simulations to determine the effect of convergent substitutions on the accuracy of phylogenetic inference. We show that, in some realistic conditions, even a relatively small proportion of convergent codons can strongly bias phylogenetic reconstruction, especially when amino acid sequences are used as characters. The strength of this bias does not depend on the reconstruction method but varies as a function of how much divergence had occurred among the lineages prior to any episodes of convergent substitutions. While the occurrence of this bias is difficult to predict, the risk of spurious groupings is strongly decreased by considering only 3rd codon positions, which are less subject to selection, as long as saturation problems are not present. Therefore, we recommend that, whenever possible, topologies obtained with amino acid sequences and 3rd codon positions be compared to identify potential phylogenetic biases and avoid evolutionarily misleading conclusions.

Rate of convergence of a particle method to the solution of the Mc Kean-Vlasov's equation

This paper studies the rate of convergence of an appropriatediscretization scheme of the solution of the Mc Kean-Vlasovequation introduced by Bossy and Talay. More specifically,we consider approximations of the distribution and of thedensity of the solution of the stochastic differentialequation associated to the Mc Kean - Vlasov equation. Thescheme adopted here is a mixed one: Euler/weakly interactingparticle system. If $n$ is the number of weakly interactingparticles and $h$ is the uniform step in the timediscretization, we prove that the rate of convergence of thedistribution functions of the approximating sequence in the $L^1(\Omega\times \Bbb R)$ norm and in the sup norm is of theorder of $\frac 1{\sqrt n} + h $, while for the densities is ofthe order $ h +\frac 1 {\sqrt {nh}}$. This result is obtainedby carefully employing techniques of Malliavin Calculus.

Human capital distribution, growth and convergence

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between distribution and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations model with accumulation of human and physical capital. It is shown how human capital can determine a relationship between per capita growth rates and inequality in the distribution of income. Family background effects and spillovers in the transmission of human capital generate a dynamics in which aggregate variables depend not only on the stock, but also on the distribution of human capital. The evolution of this distribution over time is then characterized under different assumptions on private returns and the form of the externality in the technology for humancapital. Conditions for existence, uniqueness and stability of a constant growth equilibrium with a stationary distribution are derived. Increasing returns, idiosyncratic abilities and the possibility of poverty traps are explicitely characterized in a closed form solution of the equilibrium dynamics, showing the role played by technology and preferences parameters.

Abundant Occurrence of Basal Radial Glia in the Subventricular Zone of Embryonic Neocortex of a Lissencephalic Primate, the Common Marmoset Callithrix jacchus.

Subventricular zone (SVZ) progenitors are a hallmark of the developing neocortex. Recent studies described a novel type of SVZ progenitor that retains a basal process at mitosis, sustains expression of radial glial markers, and is capable of self-renewal. These progenitors, referred to here as basal radial glia (bRG), occur at high relative abundance in the SVZ of gyrencephalic primates (human) and nonprimates (ferret) but not lissencephalic rodents (mouse). Here, we analyzed the occurrence of bRG cells in the embryonic neocortex of the common marmoset Callithrix jacchus, a near-lissencephalic primate. bRG cells, expressing Pax6, Sox2 (but not Tbr2), glutamate aspartate transporter, and glial fibrillary acidic protein and retaining a basal process at mitosis, occur at similar relative abundance in the marmoset SVZ as in human and ferret. The proportion of progenitors in M-phase was lower in embryonic marmoset than developing ferret neocortex, raising the possibility of a longer cell cycle. Fitting the gyrification indices of 26 anthropoid species to an evolutionary model suggested that the marmoset evolved from a gyrencephalic ancestor. Our results suggest that a high relative abundance of bRG cells may be necessary, but is not sufficient, for gyrencephaly and that the marmoset's lissencephaly evolved secondarily by changing progenitor parameters other than progenitor type.

The poor stay poor: Non-convergence across countries and regions

We study the issue of income convergence across countries and regions witha Bayesian estimator which allows us to use information in an efficient andflexible way. We argue that the very slow convergence rates to a commonlevel of per-capita income found, e.g., by Barro and Xavier Sala-i-Martin,is due to a 'fixed effect bias' that their cross-sectional analysisintroduces in the results. Our approach permits the estimation of differentconvergence rates to different steady states for each cross sectional unit.When this diversity is allowed, we find that convergence of each unit to(its own) steady state income level is much faster than previously estimatedbut that cross sectional differences persist: inequalities will only bereduced by a small amount by the passage of time. The cross countrydistribution of the steady state is largely explained by the cross countrydistribution of initial conditions.

Tracking the invisible hand: Convergence of double auctions to competitive equilibrium

Economics is the science of want and scarcity. We show that want andscarcity, operating within a simple exchange institution (double auction),are sufficient for an economy consisting of multiple inter--related marketsto attain competitive equilibrium (CE). We generalize Gode and Sunder's(1993a, 1993b) single--market finding to multi--market economies, andexplore the role of the scarcity constraint in convergence of economies to CE.When the scarcity constraint is relaxed by allowing arbitrageurs in multiple markets to enter speculative trades, prices still converge to CE,but allocative efficiency of the economy drops. \\Optimization by individual agents, often used to derive competitive equilibria,are unnecessary for an actual economy to approximately attain such equilibria.From the failure of humans to optimize in complex tasks, one need not concludethat the equilibria derived from the competitive model are descriptivelyirrelevant. We show that even in complex economic systems, such equilibriacan be attained under a range of surprisingly weak assumptions about agentbehavior.